Ryan O'Reilly Signs Seven-Year Deal; It's Not Crazy to Think the Sabres Can Make the Playoffs; Looking at Really Quick Turnarounds in One Year

Ryan O'Reilly officially signed a contract extension with the Sabres at 7 years, $52.5 million, the largest in Sabres history at least until Jack Eichel's contract comes up. That doesn't actually kick in until the 2016-17 season. He will actually make $11 million that first season but the thing we focus on is not salary but rather cap hit, which will be $7.5 million. I know it sounds like a lot but it's really not. The fact is the cap is going up because revenues are going up. That is the going rate for a center who is great defensively, at possessing the puck, and on 5-on-5, which is what the game has become.

O'Reilly's cap hit is topped by only elite level players and some players that are better than him, don't cost their team as much against the cap. But they signed their deals within the last couple of years or so and are older than O'Reilly, who is only 24. You have to also take into consideration, this isn't the cap coming out of the 2004-05 lockout, where $7.5 million would have been looked down upon. While his cap number counts 10.5% of the total cap, it would have counted almost double at 19.2% back 10 years ago. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews $10.5 million cap hits count 14.7% of the cap each.

O'Reilly's 5-on-5 numbers are among the best among centers and his points per game over the last four seasons is 19th best among centers (http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=C&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=250&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game). The ones ahead of him are all pretty much elite.

He has great 5-on-5 Corsi numbers despite being on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and with not a lot of skilled talent. Defensively he can shut down any line and has the most takeaways in the NHL the last two years. He also has one of the best even strength points per 60 minutes of any player as well. So yeah, he is not one of the elite number one centers, but he is very good and the going rate will show this will be a bargain in years to come.

The Sabres look to really improve from finishing in last place the last two years with all their additions. Now going from last season's total of 54 points to going into say the low 90s to get into the playoffs seems like a ginormous task. Heck, many think just a 20-point jump is a challenge not 40 points and they'll think that this will be a long rebuild. I am here to tell you that it won't take long even though they were the worst team by miles the last two years.

It wouldn't shock me if they made the playoffs. That's right I think this team can make it because one-year jumps, no matter how bleak it may look, happen on a regular basis in the NHL more than you think. The only way a team does have to go five years or longer to rebuild is because they don't have enough high draft picks and great players. That turns your franchise around quickly, especially in a salary cap era.

It doesn't take much to make the playoffs as if you finish in the top-3 in a division you automatically are locked into a playoff spot. I see the Sabres being better than pretty much every team except Tampa, Montreal (only because they have a great goalie and high point total but that will come down if they don't get better scorers), and Florida I think will be very good but it's only because they've been ahead of the Sabres in the rebuilding department.

It's possible they can finish in the top-3. Detroit is on their way down along with Boston. Ottawa doesn't scare me and Toronto is rebuilding and needs at least one more really great draft. Plus the Sabres were artificially awful as they did everything to ensure they finish 30th for Jack Eichel this past season. If they really tried and got better players by bringing them up or signing them, they could have had 65-70 points, but who wants that? That doesn't get you a potentially elite number one center like Eichel. So don't count last year's point total too much as it was meant to be awful. It wasn't an accident.

I am going to show you non-believers some teams who were awful and turned it around quickly, going from worst to first (or close to first in the division) in just one year thanks to some great high draft picks as well as great free agent and trade pickups.

The San Jose Sharks went from 47 and 62 points in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons to making the playoffs in 1997-98 with just 78 points, but it was enough. They picked Patrick Marleau second overall in the 1997 draft behind current Shark Joe Thornton.

Since then, the Sharks were one of the better teams in the NHL missing the playoffs only twice since then, one was just this past season, despite never making it to the finals. Point is, they went from a bottom feeder to drafting and acquiring great talent and for nearly 20 years were a contender to win the Cup.

Speaking of Thornton, the Bruins finished dead last in the 1996-97 season with 61 points and won the lottery and drafted Thornton. The following year, they made the playoffs with 91 points, a 30-point jump. The Bruins then had a bad run post 2004-05 lockout posting 74 and 76 points in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons where the Sabres were at the top of the league and running over the Bruins.

Since then, the Bruins had been on the NHL's best teams with additions of former #2 overall pick Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, and top-5 pick Phil Kessel, who was then spun off for  first round draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton.

The Bruins were perennially a 100-point team, winning their first Stanley Cup in 29 years, going to another Stanley Cup Finals, and winning a President's Trophy. Of course the Bruins are stupid trading both Seguin and Hamilton for nothing and they missed the playoffs this past season and are on the decline.

The New York Islanders missed the playoffs seven straight seasons before 2001-02. That year, they hired an unknown Peter Laviolette as their head coach and made some purchases such as Alexi Yashin and Michael Peca among others and went from 52 points the year before to making the playoffs with 96 points (44 point jump).

In recent years, the Islanders missed the playoffs five straight seasons before acquiring some top picks like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo and made the playoffs in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. After missing the playoffs in 2013-14 with just 79 points, the Islanders rebounded this past season after some retooling with 101 points.

The Carolina Hurricanes had 61 and 76 points when Laviolette took over in 2003-04. The next season, he led Carolina to 112 points and the Stanley Cup thanks to a number two overall pick in Eric Staal and other veteran acquisitions.

The Pittsburgh Penguins were awful when they drafted Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. In fact, Crosby's rookie year, they were still the worst team record wise with 58 points. After getting Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal second overall in drafts, the pens went from 58 points to 105 the next season. The year after that, they lost in the Cup finals. The year after that, they won the Cup. They have also been a perennial 100-point team every year since.

The Washington Capitals were really bad before they drafted Alex Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004. They were still bad in Ovechkin's first two years with 70 points each season before adding players like Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green (when he was an offensive machine) to finish with 94 points in 2007-08 and win the Southeast Division. They have made the playoffs all but one season since and even won the President's Trophy in 2009-10.

The Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs six straight seasons before having a 101-point season in 2009-10. Along the way, the Kings had some high draft picks such as Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and two other top-5 picks were traded for pieces such as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, which helped them win two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014.

The Philadelphia Flyers had a season to forget in 2006-07 where they only had 56 points, worst in the NHL and worst in franchise history. That was the same season where they were destroyed by the Sabres 9-1 and Ken Hitchcock and many of the front office staff were fired. I am sure that 56 points was no accident they probably thought they'd win the Cup or something and then realized we need to retool.

They traded a lot of awful pieces, brought in some of their young talented prospects, brought in players such as Danny Briere, Marty Biron, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen and drafted James Van Riemsdyk second overall. The flyers jumped from 56 points to 95 in 2007-08 and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals in one year. Two years later, they lost in the Staney Cup Finals.

Ryan O'Reilly's old team the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in 2012-13, they won the draft lottery and drafted Nate MacKinnon to go along with other top-2 draft picks Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. the very next season saw the Avalanche jump to 112 points and won the division.

The Montreal Canadiens were the third-worst team and worst in the Eastern Conference with 78 points. They ended up getting a new coach (Michel Therrian) and GM (Marc Bergevin) and a few other things and went from worst to first winning the division in 2012-13. They finished with 100 and 110 points and another division the next two seasons and have been one of the better teams in the East in terms of record. I don't know how exactly, outside of Carey Price and PK Subban they don't have much. They can't score and their forwards aren't that great. They drafted Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012 and he's been decent, he hasn't lived up to the hype of his draft status.

The Tampa Bay Lightning look to be the team to beat for years to come thanks to their high draft picks. They had the third-worst record in 2012-13 but rebounded to 101 points the following season. This past season, they had 108 points and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago. Thanks to first overall pick Steven Stamkos and second overall pick defenseman Victor Hedman along with gems like second round pick Nikita Kucherov and undrafted free agent turned sensation Tyler Johnson, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. They will be the team that wins Cups and the Sabres will have to fight them to get there. Even 2013 third overall pick Jonathan Drouin hasn't done much. He spent 2013-14 in the juniors and didn't contribute a whole lot this season as he was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. When he does live up to his potential, watch out.

The Blackhawks have been the gold standard for the NHL the last 7-8 years, winning three of the last six Stanley Cups and lost in the conference finals two other times. Before that, they were one of the worst teams not only in the NHL but in all professional sports. They missed the playoffs 9 out of 10 seasons and were considered a laughing stock. The fans didn't go to Blackhawk games, instead they went to the AHL Chicago Wolves games. But they drafted Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and along with two of the best defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, and others they built what is somewhat of a dynasty. In Kane and Toews first season, they went from 71 points to 88, just missing the playoffs but the groundwork for success was laid out.

The Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are two teams on the rise. The Panthers went from 66 points two seasons ago to 91 this past season. They have had three top-3 picks in recent years; Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad, who have helped this young team develop and win quickly.

The Blue Jackets don't have a ton of high draft picks except 4th overall pick  Ryan Johansen, 3rd overall pick Jack Johnson, who's done well since being traded by the Kings, and 2nd overall pick defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been injured a lot and has not lived up to the hype. But the players they get off of other teams such as Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Johnson, and Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky have helped turn this moribund franchise into a young promising playoff team. They went from a league worst 65 points in 2011-12 to just missing the playoffs by one point in 2012-13. They made the playoffs in 2013-14 with 93 points, but missed the playoffs this season despite having 89 points with over 500 man games lost due to injury.

So as you see, it doesn't take a lot to get your team from the bottom to just making the playoffs the following season. Even at worst, it might take two years but even the year before shows the team just barely misses the playoffs and shows tremendous progress. It's not that hard as long as you rebuild the right way, which i believe the Sabres did.

What Can the Sabres Do at 21? Get a Goalie? Or Get a Top-6 Forward Like Skinner, O'Reilly, or Okposo?

With all the hype of getting Jack Eichel, there is the question of what to do at pick #21? Do the Sabres get a goalie and/or a top-6 forward like Jeff Skinner, Ryan O'Reilly, or even Kyle Okposo? For goalie, the top guys to be traded are New York Rangers' backup Cam Talbot and Vancouver's backup Eddie Lack.

The Rangers reportedly want two first round picks but could just want pick #21 from the Sabres and a conditional pick, That pick might be too high for a goalie. Lack could go for a 2nd or even 3rd round pick and that could be a good price. There's also LA Kings' backup Martin Jones, who they could go after with an offer sheet as he's a restricted free agent.

The Hurricanes are looking to move Skinner (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/jeff-skinner-might-be-available-id-go.html) as they want to re-sign both Eric Staal and Cam Ward (I don't know why). The Hurricanes are in the position they are in because of giving Ward a big contract years ago in the first place. He's been mediocre at best and even great goalies who sign big contracts aren't worth that, it's even worse for a mediocre or worse goalie. I remember the game against them in the final week of the season last year where he was awful and cost them the game by allowing 4 goals and almost hurt our chances at McEichel.

O'Reilly (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/i-would-trade-reinhart-for-oreilly-i.html) is pretty much done in Colorado especially after they just gave Carl Soderberg a five-year deal nearly worth five million a year. I love how the Avalanche continue to fail and not use analytics to their advantage. Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic continue to thumb their nose at analytics because "they played the game."

Analytics called for a regression this past season after they miraculously won the division and had a 100-point season in 2013-14 after finishing with the second-worst record in 2012-13. Many analytics experts felt they were lucky to win the division and called for them to lose in the first round (which they did) and expected them to fail, which they did as they had the 10th worst record this past season.

Islanders' GM Garth Snow said he wasn't going to trade Okposo but take that with a grain of salt. Okposo is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Okposo is a solid player who would be a good fit for the Sabres perhaps for the 21st overall pick. He's had 18 or more goals in three of the last four seasons (the only one he didn't was the lockout-shortened season) and has had 27 goals two seasons ago. He had 18 in only 60 games as he missed 22 with injury, which would put him around his career-high if he played the full season.

Patrick Sharp is also available but unlikely for the Sabres because of the steep asking price of the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks reportedly want a first round pick, a top prospect, AND a top six forward on an entry level contract. I expect the asking price to drop because Chicago needs to ,over some salaries because they're in cap trouble with the upcoming raises of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. I like Sharp but not at that price.

Whatever happens later today will be very interesting. Don't expect Tim Murray to not just take Eichel as he will do whatever to improve this team as quickly as possible. For those who think this is a five-year project will be in for a rude awakening.

Buffalo Sabres Met with Dan Bylsma Last Night and Are Meeting With Him Again Shortly

It appears that the Buffalo Sabres are about to hire former Pittsburgh Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma as their head coach. The Sabres met with him last night and are in the process of meeting with him again. We are waiting for him to officially be hired by the Sabres. What's the hold up? The hold up is this stupid, idiotic rule that the NHL has in place which shows how the NHL is a dumb league sometimes, more like a lot of the time.

That rule is that the Sabres (or any team) would have to give up a 3rd round pick if they want to hire him. The stupid thing is that Bylsma was fired last year by the Penguins so he should be able to sign with anyone. Who has to negotiate with the team that fired a head coach? You don't need to give up compensation to sign an unrestricted free agent. This rule was designed to protect teams from allowing their AHL head coaches or top notch assistant coaches to up and leave for nothing. That I like a lot.

But there's this stupid loophole to allow a team to receive compensation despite having a head coach being fired. That's just stupid and again, the NHL looks like a joke. As long as Gary Bettman is in charge, these stupid things will continue to happen. He's a joke of a commissioner and he makes this a joke of a sports league. As for Pittsburgh, why not get your compensation you are entitled to? The Sabres are reportedly working with Pittsburgh negotiating terms of compensation.

I have zero problem with this hiring. Yeah I wanted Mike Babcock, but he wanted to go to Toronto and in this case, there is no shame in finishing a close second in the race for the best head coach. But Bylsma is no consolation prize in my opinion. If Babcock is the best, then Bylsma is a very close second. It's like trying to get Connor McDavid, but Jack Eichel is a very close second. The Sabres job is much more appealing and attractive now that we will have Eichel. Even without Eichel, the Sabres have the best group of prospects in the NHL. But Eichel makes it that much sweeter. Evander Kane makes it more appealing as well.

For those who constantly criticize or whine about how Bylsma only won one Stanley Cup with stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and how usually the Penguins underachieved in the playoffs losing in the 1st or 2nd round depsite having 100 point seasons, I will set the record straight. He did not have much else besides Crosby and Malkin. There were times where Crosby and/or Malkin were hurt and missed a bunch of a season. Regardless, Bylsma never had less than 101 points in an entire 82-game season and never finished lower than second in the division. In the lockout-shortened 48-game season, Bylsma still had 72 points which turns out to be a whopping 123 over an 82-game season.

Besides not getting anyone else besides Crosby and Malkin (Kris Letang is a very good defenseman and James Neal and Jordan Staal were also good) as well as having a very poor pool of prospects (which the Sabres don't have), the goaltending has been abysmal. Marc-Andre Fleury has had sub-.900 save percentages almost every playoff season under Byslma except one: the year they won the Cup in 09. I don't care who you are, you can't win in the playoffs with goalies with save percentages in the .800s. These are faults of the GM Ray Shero more than Bylsma. Bylsma won despite all this.

How come Babcock is considered the best coach in hockey while he only won one cup with at least 3 future hall of famers while Bylsma gets blasted for winning only one Cup with two future hall of famers? Babcock's regular season win % is .627 which is very good. Meanwhile, Bylsma's reg. season win % is an astounding .668. Babcock's postseason win % is .569 while Bylsma's is .551. So there's really not that much of a difference between the two except Babcock has been to two more Stanley Cup finals. By the way, Bylsma beat Babcock to win the Cup.

Did I mention Bylsma won the Cup his first year in the NHL? Because that's pretty important. In fact, he took over from Michel Therrien with 25 games left after the players tuned out Therrien one year after losing in the finals. Bylsma led the Pens to 40 points in those last 25 games and led them to winning the Cup. As for Bylsma winning only that one Cup, two things. 1.) how many Cups do the Sabres have (for now)? 2.) Only two teams since 2002 have won multiple Stanley Cups (Chicago and Los Angeles).

Point being, it's so hard to win the Stanley Cup and the days of winning 4-5 Cups in a decade or so are over with the salary cap era in place. Outside of Joel Quenneville and Darryl Sutter, no other coaches in the NHL right now (not even Babcock) have won more than one Stanley Cup. Quenneville and Sutter were fired at least once in their coaching careers as well so the whole Bylsma was fired thing is a joke.

The other things I love about this hire are that Bylsma coached the U.S. Olympic Hockey team and is a great puck possession coach who understands the way the game is played now. His teams were always very good in puck possession and Corsi for. He states that it's better for a player to carry the puck in through the neutral zone and into the opponent's end of the ice vs. dump and chase. I love that so much and it seems like he's not afraid to adapt to the current style of hockey of puck possession and advanced stats.

I believe it's a matter of time before Dan Bylsma will be the head coach of the Buffalo Sabres and I don't even feel like it's a consolation prize over Babcock.

How Did the Kings Win?

How did the Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup? They were the first-ever 8th seeded team to win the Stanley Cup. Before this year, no team below a 5th seed and outside of the top-8 in overall NHL standings ever won the Cup. The Kings had 15 loser points and won just 40 of 82 games. So they had a subpar record. Outside of goalie Jonathan Quick and center Enze Kopitar, most of the players had career-worst years. the Kings scored the 2nd fewest goals of any team in the NHL this season, but they allowed the 2nd fewest. They really lacked elite star power on offense. Kopitar is very good but I am not sure he is an elite player. I like Captain Dustin Brown and Mike Richards, who the Kings acquired from Philly after last season. But both struggled in the regular season. They fired head coach Terry Murray in December with a 13-12-4 record. After brief run with interim coach John Stevens, the Kings hired Darryl Sutter as the permanent head coach. Sutter had been a good coach, but many felt his teams underachieved in the playoffs. The Kings did go 25-13-11 with Sutter as coach so the coaching change did work.

The Kings were in 11th place on March 11th, but were still in contention for the Pacific Division. They lost out to Phoenix and settled for 8th place in a very competitive Western Conference. They were 9-2-3 in their final 14 games, enough to lift them into the playoffs. They took on the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in the 1st round and many, including myself, predicted the Canucks would win and play for the Stanley Cup. Instead the Kings, behind Quick, shut down the high-scoring Canucks in five games, allowing just 8 goals. Quick was even more impressive against the 2nd seeded St. Louis Blues, where he allowed just 6 goals in a four-game sweep. Then the Kings displaced the 3rd seeded Phoenix Coyotes in 5 games as they moved onto the finals for the 2nd time in franchise history, the other was 1993 with Wayne Gretzky. The Kings were only the second team in NHL history to defeat the top-3 seeds in their conference, the other was the 2003-04 Calgary Flames, coached ironically by Darryl Sutter. The Kings continued their dominance in the first three games of the finals against the New Jersey Devils, outscoring them 8-2 as they were up 3-0 in the series. But the Devils fought back hard to win games 4 and 5 to force a 6th game back in L.A. However, the Kings scored 3 power play goals in the 1st period en route to a dominating 6-1 win and won their first-ever Stanley Cup in their 45-year history.

They finished a whopping 16-4 in the playoffs, including 10-1 on the roadwhich includes an NHL 10 consecutive road playoff victories and a road playoff record. Quick won the Conn Smythe Trophy with a 16-4 record, an incredible .946 save % and a 1.41 goals against average. Dustin Brown and Enze Kopitar tied for the lead in scoring with 8 goals and 20 points and a +16. Justin Williams had a good playoff and defensemen Drew Doughty was simply amazing averaging over 26 minutes of ice time. Former Flyers Mike Richards and Jeff Carter both had great playoffs after they both had down regular seasons. Richards and Carter showed the Flyers how wrong they were for shipping them away after last season’s playoff loss and they were the scapegoats because they partied and drank too much. How does that feel now Philly? They beat the team that beat you in the playoffs. Add Simon Gagne and former coach Flyer coach and current assistant coach John Stevens, and its even more pain for Flyer fans who have been waiting for a Cup since 1975. I could not be happier just based on that merit.

How in the world did the Kings win? Beats the heck out of me. It shows you that now you can make the playoffs and you have a strong shot to win. New Jersey could have won and they would be the first 6th seed to win the Cup, but they were no ordinary 6th seed as they had 100 points and barely finished 4th in the super competitive Atlantic Division. There is a lot of questions up coming for the Devils including will Brodeur retire and will they be able to keep some free agents, such as Zach Parise? I do want to congratulate New Jersey on a fantastic season despite the disappointing ending.