This is a Deep Draft But Will it Rival the 2003 Draft?

Tomorrow's NHL draft is considered to be a very deep, talent rich draft, especially in the first round. It's not just Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, which are the top prizes, but the top-5, 10, maybe even the entire first round has potential great talent. It's supposed to be the deepest draft since the 2003 NHL Draft. The question is will be be as deep as 2003? (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-can-this-year-s-class-rival-2003-1.3126035) Here's an old article from five years ago (http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/further-proof-that-the-2003-nhl-entry-draft-was-the-best-of-all-time).

NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.

This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.

12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.

Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.

The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.

Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.

It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.

The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.

Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.

Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.

The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.

Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.

The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).

That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.

I want the Islanders to Give the Sabres Their 2015 1st Round Pick

I've been thinking about the up-coming 2014 NHL Draft where it appears that the Sabres will more than likely be drafting either 1st or 2nd in the draft. They have a 99% chance according to sportsclubstats.com they be drafting 1st or 2nd with a 94% chance they finish with the worst record in the league. The Sabres have a 25% chance of winning the Draft Lottery (which is easily the best odds of winning) if they finish last. If they lose the lottery, they draft 2nd, still a great chance at a great pick and player. I'll write more in a different entry about how great it is to draft in the top-2-3 picks as the NHL Draft pretty much always produces really good to great players in the top-2 or 3 spots.

They traded unrestricted free agent-to-be, 30-40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek to the New York Islanders for forward and fellow 30-goal scorer Matt Moulson, a 2014 1st round pick, and a 2015 2nd round pick. Now the Islanders can keep the 1st round pick this year if they draft in top-10 and then they can defer it and give us their 1st round pick for next year. The Islanders have struggled badly as they are 22-30-8 with only 52 points. Right now they'd be drafting 5th if the season were to end, or 6th if a team behind them wins the lottery or they could be drafting 1st if they win the lottery. Barring a ridiculous post-Olympic run, the Islanders will be no doubt drafting in the top-10, maybe top-5.

So I know many of you want their 2014 1st round pick because the Sabres could have two top-5 picks in this year's NHL Draft. But if I had my choice, I'd want their 2015 1st round pick. I know many of you are like "why would you risk a sure top-5, 10 pick on what could very well be a lower pick?" Good question and yes it could be a risk drafting lower than the top-5. But they could remain the same next year or be even worse. Now I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future but I don't see the Islanders getting better next year, I see them being the same if not worse next year, especially with Thomas Vanek being gone and probably won't return next year. If they again miss the playoffs and especially draft in the top-5, hopefully 2 or 3 so it increases our chances at hopefully getting the #1 overall pick and the top prospect in the 2015 Draft in Connor McDavid.

Supposedly next year's draft, led by top prospect McDavid, who is supposedly the enxt Sidney Crosby, is better than this year's class. Of course we'll never know for sure until they play the game and of course its all speculation. This year's draft with top prospects Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, and Leon Draisaitl aren't McDavid or Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin or Malkin or Kane or Stamkos; but they can be very good players as players drafted at the top of the NHL Draft usually are such as John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog or even Nathan MacKinnon. Who wouldn't want one of those?

I don't expect the Sabres to be good again next year so they'll be in the McDavid sweepstakes next year and hopefully with the Islanders pick will double their chances. Plus I heard Tim Murray wants mostly 2015 first round draft picks if he unloads Ryan Miller, Matt Moulson, and Steve Ott. The more the merrier for me!! You can't have enough great players and you get them at the top of the draft. Imagine we get one of the top-2 picks this year, McDavid and maybe even another top-5 pick next year? Who wouldn't get excited? Plus we might be able to get a big free agent or two such as Kane.

Like I said I don't think the Islanders will be better next year, I think they'll be the same or hopefully worse so we can get another pick towards the McDavid sweepstakes. The Islanders have a terrible defense and their goaltending is really bad as they allowed the most goals of any team. I don't see them fixing their defense/goaltending issues in one off season. I think GM Garth Snow is in win now mode and really can't afford to wait another bad year or else he'll be out of a job. He's been there for eight years and produced just two playoff appearances. If they are in the top-5 they might have to just take the pick and hope for the best even if the class isnt as good as next year's. Tim Murray has the luxury of waiting a draft or two to fix this mess.

The Islanders just came off a playoff appearance in which they gave the top-seeded Penguins all they could handle in six games last year and hopes were very high for this once downtrodden franchise. They started a mediocre 4-4-3 when they traded for Vanek. Unfortunately, the Vanek deal has not brought a ton of success as the losses began to pile up. They've lost 31 of their last 49 games (26 of the losses were in regulation). Their 22 wins and 52 points in 60 games are two fewer wins and three fewer points than they had all last season in just 48 lockout-shortened games when they made the playoffs. They are moving to Brooklyn after next season and will need some marquee players in addition to Vanek to show they belong in the big city instead of the island. So they would be wise to wait till 2015 for McDavid but it's hard to predict whether they'll be as bad or worse next year.

They only have one good line which is John Tavares, Kyle Okposo and Vanek. Not much scoring outside of that line. Plus I think Vanek is gone, he'll probably be traded before the trade deadline as he recently turned down a 7-year, $50 million contract (which is the same contract he signed 7 years ago) extension from the Islanders as he wants to test the open market. Who can blame him? He's 30 years old, he will have maybe one big chance to make big money on the open market as he's averaged over 30 goals a season for his first 8 years in the league (which will bring big bucks to a team that needs goal scoring), and he's never had a chance to go to any or all teams to see what he's really worth and who really wants him. He's been in Buffalo all his career until last October when he was traded to the Islanders.

He's never had a chance to test the open market. 7 years ago when he was a restricted free agent, the Sabres matched the offer by the Edmonton Oilers which kept him here another 7 years. the Sabres just lost Briere and Drury for nothing and needed to keep a guy who just scored 43 goals and 84 points instead of taking Edmonton's 4 first round picks. Who knows, maybe Vanek wanted to leave and maybe he was upset that the sabres matched it and didn't allow him to leave for Edmonton or maybe somewhere else. Plus he was wondering if the Sabres really wanted him, why did they let him go to possibly be signed by another team and why didn't they give him an offer before? The Sabres, notable Darcy Regier really dropped the ball on that one.

So yea, I'm not only in 2014 NHL Draft mode, I'm also in 2015 NHL Draft mode because I expect the Sabres to be closer to the lottery than the playoffs for Connor McDavid. I hate to root for them to be bad, but I can't help but want a couple of high draft picks for potential great players. This franchise hasn't had generationally great superstars in a long time. Even for those of you who don't want to lose for the top pick in the 2015 Draft, that's why I want the Islanders to give us the 2015 pick and hope they are really bad so we get the top pick or win the lottery. Could you imagine being an Islanders fan and you give away what could be Connor McDavid? The fans would riot. But I hope the Sabres end up with him,