Upon Further Review; Geno Smith was only good against Justin Rogers

I know many say that Geno Smith “outplayed” E.J. Manuel in Sunday’s Bills loss to the Jets but the truth is, Smith only played well because one man made him look a lot better than he really was. That man’s name was Justin Rogers. Rogers is nothing more than a backup cornerback who really should be on the practice squad, or selling insurance for that matter, who only played because their top cornerbacks were injured and the Bills had no one else.

Smith completed his biggest passes to receivers who were “covered” by Rogers but that’s because they were mostly wide open. Any decent QB should be able to make the plays against such weak coverage. If not he shouldn’t be in the National Football League. 

Upon further review however, Smith didn’t look too good when he threw against other defenders not named Justin Rogers. The Bills best corner Stephon Gilmore is still out with his surgically repaired wrist and can’t come back soon enough. Leodis McKelvin went down with a hamstring injury and did not return the rest of the game. Even Ron Brooks is out indefinitely with a leg injury.

That meant playing safety Aaron Williams back to cornerback, a position in which he struggled badly his first two seasons in the league but played decent Sunday especially compared to Rogers. That meant one of our starting safeties had to move up to play corner. Rogers as you can tell is the team’s fourth cornerback. This doesn’t even include their best member of their secondary, safety Jairus Byrd who is out with plantar fasciitis.

Ok everyone, if you haven’t seen this already, I’m warning you about the numbers Smith put up against Rogers yesterday so go grab a sickness bag just in case. Trust me you’ll need it. Smith completed six of eight passes (75% completion) for 254 yards, a whopping 31.75 yards per attempt as four of those six passes went for 40 yards or more, and two touchdowns for an almost perfect 156.3 QB rating (two points shy of perfection). That’s not a joke that’s God’s honest truth.

Three of every four passes was complete with an average of 32 yards and one of every four passes was a touchdown. This does not include a 22-yard pass interference penalty against Rogers as well. 

Assume the penalty yardage were a completion, Smith would’ve been 7 for 9 (78%) for 276 yards and two touchdowns. One of the two touchdowns Rogers was beaten on was a 69-yard pass to Santonio Holmes in the 4th quarter after the Bills tied the game 20-20 to put the Jets ahead 27-20, which is the score they actually won by.

Ok hand me the sickness bag as I am throwing up just writing this as we speak. Rogers in all fairness just should not be in the lineup ever. He’s not an NFL corner at all. You don’t want to use injuries as an excuse but in this case when you have your top-3 corners out, your best safety out, and your other starting safety playing corner the results aren’t expected to be great especially in a passing league nonetheless. I think you could literally have no one cover the Jets corners instead of Rogers and I don’t think Smith could have done much better that’s how terrible Rogers was (I really hate trashing Rogers I really do).

But for those who thought Geno Smith was so much better than E.J. wait just one second as I am about to show Geno’s whopping numbers against those not named Justin Rogers. He was 10 for 21 (48%) for 77 yards, a measly 3.7 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a pathetic 17.5 QB rating. 

Those numbers don’t look so good. His overall numbers were pretty decent 16 of 29 for 331 yards, an impressive 11.4 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks, a not so hot 55 completion % and an 89.9 passer rating.

If you take the numbers vs. Justin Rogers and those not against Justin Rogers, they are extremely day and night. That’s been Geno Smith’s rookie season as he had some impressive moments followed by some awful moments. 

Of course one of the two interceptions was by linebacker Kiko Alonso, but I bet Alonso could have played cornerback in place of Rogers and could not have been beaten as badly and probably would have done a much better job against Jets receivers.

If anyone thinks the Bills made a mistake by drafting Manuel over Smith and think we took the wrong guy especially after Sunday’s game, don’t get it twisted. After all, it’s just one game between the two and three games into both men’s rookie seasons. 

Hopefully you read the above numbers Smith had vs. Rogers and the numbers against anyone else and think “my God he was really good against a practice squad corner but lousy against other somewhat decent defensive backs.” 

He should be great against the team’s 4th string corner; otherwise he shouldn’t even be in the NFL. But against other decent DBs he was terrible and he showed he is still a very raw rookie that needs to grow and develop.

Had Gilmore played or McKelvin not went down or even if Byrd was healthy, the Bills would’ve won despite how bad E.J. struggled throughout the game because Smith would’ve struggled worse. Instead there was a cornerback who looked like me out there and that’s why Smith did decent and the Jets won. 

Manuel was not good, completed less than half his passes for a 5.8 yards per attempt, he was sacked 8 times, threw countless balls out of bounds, and constantly looked rattled in his first road game against a superior defense. 

But he awoke in the second half and especially in the 4th quarter where he rallied the Bills from a 20-6 deficit to tie the game at 20-20 with a beautiful 33-yard touchdown pass to Scott Chandler and threw a nice pass to Stevie Johnson for the two-point to tie the game, only for Rogers to give up the game-winning TD.

Smith had the luxury playing against the Bills’ 4th string corner and banged up secondary while Manuel had to play against a very good Antonio Cromartie, rookie Kyle Wilson, no Darrelle Revis but the Jets’ secondary and defense is still one of the best in the league. 

Plus Manuel played behind Colin Brown, who was perhaps the Justin Rogers of the offensive line. Had the two QBs switched teams and Manuel got to play against Justin Rogers and the beat up Bills secondary and Smith had to play against the Jets’ strong defense, would Smith do better than E.J.? My guess probably not. 

I’d think E.J. would have done better than 10 of 21 for 77 yards against the other members of the Bills secondary not named Justin Rogers. Smith would have put up very similar if not worse numbers than E.J. did against the Jets defense. If the Bills had even one of their best corners play they would have beaten Geno and Jets.

I’m not going to say E.J. is better but he’s also not worse, it’s too early to tell. I’ve seen both E.J. and Geno play their first two games and E.J. played way better than Geno. It’s not just the stats even though E.J.’s first two regular season starts were better. 

Manuel completed 68% of his passes with 3 TDs, 1 INT, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 95.9 QB Rating. Smith on the other hand, completed just 53% of his passes for 1 TD, 4 INTs, 6.4 yards per attempt, and a 55.2 QB Rating. 

But what I was saw from their first two starts and even watched them in two preseason games each was that Manuel was more calm and poised in the pocket like a veteran QB and even out of the pocket and made nice plays as he looked like he was ready to play. Smith on the other hand was wild and careless with the ball and even looked like a rookie that wasn’t ready to play in the NFL, especially in the preseason.

Manuel struggled a lot of the game in New York and looked more like a rookie as he was not as poised and was a bit timid and shell shocked whereas Smith looked great only when he threw against Justin Rogers. But he was not as good against everyone else. Smith was lucky in Week 1 when he ran out of bounds and was hit late to setup the game-winning field goal. 

Smith did not play well that game and if it were not for the late hit, the Jets would not have won the game as they were out of field goal range prior to the penalty. Last week against New England, Smith struggled throwing 3 INTs and completed less than 50% of his passes and if he were better and more accurate, they’d have beaten the Pats.

Smith was lucky in his two wins as he was hit really late out of bounds and threw against the Bills’ 4th string cornerback. If he is not hit out of bounds against Tampa and played against one of our top-3 corners, Smith would be 0-3. The Jets defense played well in all three of their games and they kept the Jets in every game. But Smith has not impressed me at all except throwing against Justin Rogers, that’s it. 

I want him to lose and fail nothing against Smith but I don’t want another QB to be good in this division. We struggle enough against Brady. Of course we struggle against Rex Ryan and the Jets’ defense and struggled against Mark Sanchez. I also don’t want Smith to be good because I don’t want it to look like the Bills took the wrong QB. 

Of course I’m trying to focus on E.J. being the guy more so than Smith not being the guy. After all, these are the top-two QBs in this year’s draft class and they play in the same division so the comparisons will run ramp shod between the two as they’ll someday play each other for the division title (assuming Brady retires soon). 

This might not be Luck vs. RGIII but as long as Manuel plays well and wins, who cares? In a perfect world, E.J. would be our franchise QB and Smith will fall flat on his face. The worst case scenario will be the exact opposite.

I don’t dislike Smith personally and me bashing him for his performance Sunday isn’t sour grapes but he plays for the Jets, my second most hated team only behind New England. I want them to fail just like I hope the Pats will someday. So from now on, Smith is my enemy, public enemy #2 behind only Tom Brady.

My Rant Against the Local Sports Media

I am a longtime Buffalo Sports Fan as well as a longtime listener of local sports talk on WGR 550 and even back in the day on WBEN 930 before WGR became exclusively an all-sports station. Even when WNSA, owned by the now defunct Empire Sports Network, was on the air, it was awesome to listen to with such local sports personalities as Mike Schopp ("Sports Talk for Smart People" or "Sports Talk for Smart-Asses" as one Chuck Dickerson once said lol), Howard Simon, Art Wander, Bob Koshinski, Jim Brinson, and Zig Fracassi. I've had my ups and downs in all my years listening to the local sports talk here in Buffalo. But lately, the past couple of weeks or so I've had some issues with the local sports talk radio, mostly WGR 550. I like WGR but sometimes some of the hosts have a tendency to take a cheap shot at some nationally syndicated radio hosts. I find it a little petty and stupid at times.

Back in June, WGR replaced the nationally syndicated Colin Cowherd with a year-round talk show about the Buffalo Sabres with Kevin Sylvester as host. Nothing personal against Sylvester, but I am not a fan of listening him. I never was a fan of his dating back to the days he was on WGR before he was fired 8 years ago and replaced by current morning show hosts Howard Simon and Jeremy White. Sylvester is pretty corny and has nothing interesting to offer. Then for some stupid reason, they have Andrew Peters co-hosting with him. When I thought Peters couldn't suck at anything worse than he did at hockey, he proved me wrong as listening to him talk is a lot worse. The fact that they have a Sabres show that is all year long to me is a little ridiculous. How much can we talk about the Sabres? I know this is Buffalo but we can only talk so much Sabres. July and August are slow months for hockey and unless we got some major superstar, there's only so much you can talk about. It does not make for good radio. I've listened only a little of the show and its pretty boring.

As for Cowherd, I used to not like him about 4-5 years ago. But I had a problem that I am about to admit to you during that time. I was a very big "homer." I could not think or act straight when listening or talking sports. It was all about the Bills and Sabres and nothing else. No one could ever criticize my teams. But over time, I listened more to Cowherd and I started to think clearly and gained more better perspective and wisdom and learned how to take the emotion out of it. He began to make so much sense. I started to agree more and more because he was usually right about things. He is very smart. I love how Cowherd makes so much sense about certain points. I love how he talks about the business and economic side of sports more than just Xs and Os. That makes for so much more interesting radio and he points out to people and is very blunt about how certain things are good for his show and ratings and others would take him off the air. I owe a lot to Cowherd for showing me the error of my ways in the past about sports and even life in general. Plus he can down right hilarious and not like how the local guys act like 8 year olds. He can be offensive and I am OK with that!! Sure he talks a lot about Lebron or the Patriots or the Yankees and does not talk hockey, but that's OK. Hockey talk can be pretty boring outside of Buffalo as it does not draw the national attention like football and basketball do. Sorry, that's the truth. I don't miss Cowherd because of the ESPN Radio app on my phone and I put that on a while ago so I could listen the full 3 hours of his show instead of the two they played here on WGR. I also like Jim Rome a lot but I like Cowherd more because sometimes Rome's show can too stupid. But Rome himself can damn funny the way he burns on some of his takes.

Some of the local guys take cheap shots at Cowherd even today and I'm like "dude, he's on ESPN and he has a ton more listeners and probably makes more money than you guys combined. Get over it, you sound pathetic." Just because he doesn't talk hockey or Buffalo sports doesn't mean he's worthless. I'm a huge Buffalo guy and Buffalo Sports fan, but even I have my limits when talking about either team especially when they suck like the Bills have for the last 12 years and the Sabres are too hot and cold. I need my break to listen to important stuff around the country. I like the national perspective every now and then, it makes things more interesting. The Bills are more interesting now because of the moves they made, but before it was painful to listen. When the Sabres struggle, they are hard to talk about or listen. But sometimes, the local guys are homers and shills and the way they talk about the sports here does not make for interesting radio.

Sal Capaccio is interesting to listen to from time to time, but I got to admit, him being a homer at times annoys me. When the Bills are not going good, he does the whole "rah rah" thing and its like OK shut up. Howard Simon and Jeremy White are entertaining most of the times, but sometimes they act like little children and it gets annoying. I also don't like how giddy they get like a school girl when they interview someone. It makes them sound lame and it doesn't make for good radio. I don't like this whole training camp thing where they interview mostly anonymous players and I hear the same old thing from every player and how they are all giddy. They sound so small time and that's why Colin is in the big leagues because he talks Yankees, Patriots, Lebron, Tiger Woods, USC, and so on. We are in the minor leagues, a Mickey Mouse organization if you will. I do like Mike Schopp a lot because he's not a homer even though he is born and raised in WNY. He is brilliant and even has a Cowherd like way to his methods with his perspective. He sometimes though tries too hard to prove how smart he is whereas Cowherd is so natural with the way he does things and then you see how brilliant he really is. But Schopp is not like Sal or whoever that says "the Bills are awesome!!" Schopp criticizes both the Bills and Sabres for their management and such. People don't like Schopp, but he make things very interesting and it drives up the ratings. Bulldog is a longtime fan and I like that. But I don't like how he makes no sense and just rambles on nonstop and makes noises instead of words.

Before I go, I like John Murphy's show at night. I always liked Murph and he does things with dignity and class. His interviews with players are first class. He is not a shill and does not get all giddy like a school girl. He treats them like adults and does not treat them any different because they are athletes. Murph is smart and like one of my favorites to listen to, former Bills GM Bill Polian, makes me smarter when I listen to him. I'm sure many of you disagree and would love to hear from you.

Is There A Problem With Lindy Ruff?

Ever since the season ended with the Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs, Lindy Ruff has been the topic of interest or concern. Fans and even media wonder whether Lindy should be fired or kept for another year. Sure, Terry Pegula has given both Ruff and Darcy Regier a vote of confidence and assures that both aren't going anywhere for the foreseeable future much to the chagrin to many Sabres fans. But, players have come out either publicly or secretly and have told what they felt about Ruff that he's too negative and that his coaching style has been too tough or his demeanor has been a problem or whatever. Derek Roy has criticized him in the press after the season. Brad Boyes just signed with the Islanders also criticized Ruff as well. Ruff had spent the second half of the season making Thomas Vanek his personal Whipping Boy. Question is: Is There A Problem With Lindy Ruff? Should he be on the hot seat? Should he be gone?

Ruff has been the Sabres head coach since 1997 and is the longest tenured head coach of any team in the NHL and of any of the four major sports in general. Ruff and Regier (who became the GM also in 1997) are also the longest tenured coach-GM combination currently in professional sports. But has it been too long? Many fans feel yes. As do I. Look, I like longevity, but you have to earn it. I think of Ruff and Regier as good at what they do, but they never won the Stanley Cup or really been close. They have missed the playoffs six times in the last 10 seasons and it would have been seven out of 10 had they not gone on a huge run at the end of the 2010-11 season to barely make the playoffs. They haven't won a playoff series since 2007. I'm just focusing on Ruff mostly as Darcy is for another time. But it's hard to separate the two as they are inseparable. Again, different time for a different topic.

It's one thing not to win the Cup (they've been to the Finals only once and been to the Conference Finals three other times) but its another to be consistently in the playoffs and be a championship contender on a consistent basis. For example, Jerry Sloan with the Utah Jazz was their head coach for nearly a quarter of a century and even though they never won an NBA title, his teams were almost always in the playoffs (I think they missed about three or four times total) and were always in the hunt for the title. That's fine. Or in the NFL, Bill Cowher was the Steelers head coach for 15 years and won just ONE Super Bowl and went to another. But for those 15 years, his teams almost always made the playoffs and its really tough to make the playoffs in the NFL as only six teams out of 16 in each conference make the playoffs and four of those are division winners. It's not like the NHL where you have to better than half the conference in order to make the playoffs. Bobby Cox with the Atlanta Braves, won 15 consecutive division titles, but one the World Series only once. MLB is even tougher with just four teams each league with three division winners and one wild card. This year, a second wild card has been added, but its still tough to make the postseason. And the Sabres have been in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference in six out of the last 10 seasons and three of the last five. So if they miss the playoffs, he should be gone. Heck, he should be gone now. Good teams fire their coaches and good coaches get fired. That's the way it works. He'll get a job somewhere no doubt. Good for him. But here I think it's time for a change.

I believe there is some validity to what people say when Lindy "ruins" offensive players. I don't know about ruins, but he can hold them back. Some guys come here and are successful before and successful when they leave, but struggle here. Why is that? Not everybody obviously as Danny Briere and Chris Drury flourished here under Lindy's "system." But there seems to be a trend with offensive players struggling more times than not. Of course we never had a real offensive superstar come in here and Briere and Drury were not superstars when they came here. Brad Boyes, Raffi Torres, Steve Bernier, Dominic Moore, and Rob Niedermayer don't count. Lindy has done well developing the home grown talent over the years. He has not been able to get Roy to play on a consistent basis, but that's Roy's problem not Ruff's. Ruff always wants his players to be responsible in their own end and be a two-way offensive-defensive player. They all can't be Michael Peca. It's not easy for some players to be a defensive player. Mostly the players are just offensively gifted.

Of course Regier should get Ruff more players that fit his style. But you can't always have players that fit your need on your team and you should be able to adjust to your player's strengths and not their weaknesses. Ruff takes time away from offensively gifted players if they don't play well defensively even if they need offense and that player could help them. Ruff is very stubborn. I really don't care if a player can't play defense if he can score many goals. Do what's best for the team by allowing that player to do what he does best. He's on your team whether you like it or not, you might as well make the best of it. Great coaches find ways to win and get the most out of their players whether they fit their system or not. Ruff is a really good coach, but his stubbornness and pride get in the way of much needed "W's." Many fans believe that Ruff has some sort of reputation for not maximizing a player's offensive potential. They feel that big time offensive free agents won't sign here because they won't wanna play for Ruff. I don't know how true it is but if its true, then maybe its time for Ruff to go. If he is going to keep big free agent scorers from coming here, then he needs to go. It's time. I don't want to be like "(Insert player here) won't come here and even if he does, Ruff will just suck the life out of him and he won't be productive."

I'm sorry, you can never win a championship with that mentality or his negative attitude. He did briefly change his style of coaching when they came out of the lockout and for two years were one of the best teams in the NHL. He was awarded the coach of the year award for turning around the club after its fall prior to the lockout. Then after he lost his best players, he went back to old habits pre-lockout. I think Lindy is getting burned out from this and who can blame him? 15 years is a long time to be a coach for any one team. Unless he finds ways to win and do the best to get along with what he has, this team won't win a championship. It's more likely looking back at recent history that this team either won't make the playoffs or barely make and lose in the first round. Mr. Pegula, if your plan is to win a Cup soon, this simply will not do and changes need to be made. Hopefully Darcy can get the right players.

Bye Bye Derek Roy

Derek Roy being traded no doubt made a lot of Sabres fans happy yesterday, including myself. It was long overdue. I used to like Roy a lot. But I've gotten tired of his act the last few years. For me it was in the playoffs in 2010 when the 3rd seeded Sabres lost to the Bruins in the first round and he had zero goals that I wanted him gone. Fans disliked him long before. Many feel he's not a good teammate, is a problem in the locker room, is not a leader, not a good character guy, constantly clashes with Lindy Ruff, takes dumb penalties, whines to the refs, fails to show up in big games, fails to make his teammates better, and has a lack of focus because of all the partying that he does off the ice. Roy no doubt was a fairly productive player offensively in his Sabre career as he averaged nearly 0.80 points per game and had scored 18 or more goals in a full season every season from 2005-06 to 2009-10.

But Roy represents and might be the poster child for the "core" that has massively underachieved the last five years after both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere left in 2007. They were the young group of players that would carry this franchise to the promised land and failed to deliver. They had missed the playoffs three out of the last five seasons, including last season where they had the highest payroll in the league after Terry Pegula took over as owner in Feb. 2011. They also did not win a single playoff series. Whether or not these players were mentally tough enough or focused enough or just plain and simple not good enough, they couldn't get the job done. If the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, then this is not good enough and you have to shake up the roster and get better. They already let Tim Connolly leave and traded Paul Gaustad in the last year and now they traded Roy with one year left on his contract.

Roy's best statistical season came in the 2007-08 season, the season after Briere and Drury left, when he recorded 32 goals and 81 points in 78 games. From the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season, Roy averaged 27 goals and averaged 0.92 points per game a season. In the 2010-11 season, Roy was having by far his best season with 10 goals and 35 points in 35 games before he missed the rest of the regular season with a hip injury. This past season, Roy had his career-worst season stats wise (not counting his rookie season where he only played 49 games and the 2010-11 season where he only played 35) as he set career-lows in almost every major offensive statistical category. He scored only 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points, was a -7, and had a 9.7 shooting % (his career average is 12.7). His 0.55 points per game was by far the lowest of his career not counting his rookie season after he had a point a game the year before. By the way, Roy played in 80 of the 82 games this season. His 27 assists this season were only two more than the 25 he had in 35 games the year before. He only had nine more points in 80 games than he had the year before in 35 games. Roy had as many 12 power play assists alone in 2010-11 as he had power play points in 80 games this past season.

To be fair, Roy did come a serious injury that they claim you need two years to recover and he got the injury in December 2010. He in the last year of his 6-year, $24 million deal so he would be in a contract year and he might breakthrough for a chance at a great contract. But the Sabres have been trying to move Roy apparently for two years now and now they got a gritty forward in Steve Ott and a depth defenseman in Adam Pardy. Roy still has some value as he is a top-6 forward and could be a very productive second line center if his head is on straight. He is not a number one center and unfortunately for most of the season he was our number one center as the Sabres had perhaps the worst center depth in the league as any team at the beginning of the season. The Sabres are still looking for a center in free agency or via a trade and they drafted two in the first round in Mikhail Grigorenko and Zemgus Girgensons. Girgensons is supposedly going to play college for Vermont while hopefully Grigorenko makes the team and can be the guy who was potentially the number one pick and compared to Evgeni Malkin before falling to the Sabres at 12. Don't forget the Sabres have Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson as their top-two centers right now and they're both pretty good.

Roy's problem for whatever reason is that he just doesn't make anyone around him better. As a center, that's what you are supposed to do. Even Tim Connolly was better at that than Roy was. Connolly didn't score a ton of goals (never got to 20) and rarely scored when it mattered the most (hasn't scored a playoff goal since Game 1 of the Ottawa Series in 2006 prior to his concussion), but he made the wingers on his line very productive scorers as he was a really good setup man. Roy doesn't do that quite so much. This past season, Drew Stafford and Tomas Vanek were both on lines with Roy, both struggled. Stafford was having an awful year after having 30 the year before while he was with Roy. I think he still had a single digit goal total as late as February before rebounding to score 20 when he was on a line with Ennis at center and Marcus Foligno and they were the best line on the team. Stafford scored 31 in 62 games the year before with I believe Connolly at center. Vanek was on pace for a 40 goal season, but was moved to the line centered by Roy and struggled before finishing strong down the stretch with Hodgson at center. The biggest point of Roy bringing the team down came in 2010-11 when he had 35 points in 35 games. But the Sabres record was 14-17-4 and were 10 points out of the playoffs with him in the lineup. The team outside of Roy struggled. Then after Roy was out, the Sabres went on a tear going 29-12-6 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference as they made the playoffs. I don't care what anyone says, there is some serious validity to Roy being out and the team being well. He played 80 games this past season and the Sabres underachieved and missed the playoffs.

So long Roy. It was nice knowing you.

Drafting Forwards in the Top-3 Equal Success

I wrote about how the Sabres should trade up to get into the top-3 of the NHL Draft to take either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-sabres-should-do-trade-up-into-top.html). As I know many of you probably disagree and that's fine. But I am going to prove you wrong because the NHL Draft provides very successful talent immediately as they enter the NHL. I will show you each of the forwards taken in the top-3 in each of the NHL Drafts dating back to 1997 as forward is what the Sabres need. Defensemen taken in the top-3 are successful as well and I could care less about goalies taken in the top-3. But I am focusing on forwards only because that's what the Sabres need most and if they take a defenseman or especially a goalie I will puke. So here are each of the forwards who were taken in the top-3 of each NHL Draft from 1997 to last year:

1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*

30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.

What the Sabres Should Do; Trade Up Into the Top-3

This will be an interesting off season for the Sabres as this will be Terry Pegula's second off season as team owner. His goal is to win the Stanley Cup and the Sabres struggled most of this past season as they finished a disappointing 9th in the Eastern Conference and out of the playoffs. The Sabres struggled with scoring as they were 16th in scoring despite being something like 25th most of the season. They did improve once Tyler Ennis was healthy and they traded for Cody Hodgson. But it wasn't enough to overcome a terrible mid November to January. The Sabres need an elite scorer/center on this team. Now what do the Sabres do? Do they acquire Rick Nash from Columbus for a very hefty price tag? Do they attempt to acquire the rights to Zach Parise and sign him? I say neither (not that I would hate either move). My move would be to trade up into the NHL Draft with either Edmonton or Columbus and draft either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk.

Darcy Regier needs to call Edmonton and/or Columbus and see what it would take to move into the 1st or 2nd spot in the draft and take an elite player. I know what many of you are thinking; "why would they risk a Russian player at the top of the draft? It would be such a risk!" Negative. In fact, the NHL produces great players at the top of the draft for the last 20 years and these players contribute right away. The success at the top of the draft is more than any other sport, even more than the NFL. Plus you don't have to pay these players a lot as the maximum contract for the 1st overall pick is a 3-year deal worth only $900,000 a season. That's about 1/10th of what you would have to pay one of the top players in the league. I ask, wouldn't you want an elite 30-40 goal scorer for $900,000? I would hope so or else you need your head examined. The Risk-Reward factor is there's almost no risk and a very high reward. I almost believe there's a much greater risk signing a veteran for $7-8 million a year than moving up into the draft to take one of these elite young players. This is why I want this to happen.

Edmonton and Columbus are both terrible and both said they want to trade out. The Sabres are the perfect team to make this deal as their first pick is 12 and they also have the #21, 42, and 44 picks as well. They could and should trade every pick to move up and I would be willing to part ways with a defensive prospect (Mark Pysyk) because we have enough defensemen on this roster and we need forward depth. The goal is to win the Cup now or in the next couple of years. I am not interested in making this team great 4-5 years down the road, I want to win now and drafting in the top-3 would make our team instantly.

For those who are worried about drafting a Russian player, believe me, there is nothing to worry about with Yakupov or Galchenyuk. Both these players want to play here and live here. Yakupov came to Canada at a young age while Galchenyuk was born in the U.S. in Milwaukee and played in Chicago before moving to Canada and teamed with Yakupov. These guys want to play the US/Canada physical style of hockey more than European/Russian style of play. Mikhail Grigorenko was another player considered at the top of the draft and has been compared to Evgeni Malkin. But he has also been a disappointment as he has been inconsistent and has been dropping to perhaps out of the top-10.

I will write another blog in the next day or so that features the success of drafting in the top-3 of the NHL Draft. Darcy, get off your butt and do this please. Thanks.

How Did the Kings Win?

How did the Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup? They were the first-ever 8th seeded team to win the Stanley Cup. Before this year, no team below a 5th seed and outside of the top-8 in overall NHL standings ever won the Cup. The Kings had 15 loser points and won just 40 of 82 games. So they had a subpar record. Outside of goalie Jonathan Quick and center Enze Kopitar, most of the players had career-worst years. the Kings scored the 2nd fewest goals of any team in the NHL this season, but they allowed the 2nd fewest. They really lacked elite star power on offense. Kopitar is very good but I am not sure he is an elite player. I like Captain Dustin Brown and Mike Richards, who the Kings acquired from Philly after last season. But both struggled in the regular season. They fired head coach Terry Murray in December with a 13-12-4 record. After brief run with interim coach John Stevens, the Kings hired Darryl Sutter as the permanent head coach. Sutter had been a good coach, but many felt his teams underachieved in the playoffs. The Kings did go 25-13-11 with Sutter as coach so the coaching change did work.

The Kings were in 11th place on March 11th, but were still in contention for the Pacific Division. They lost out to Phoenix and settled for 8th place in a very competitive Western Conference. They were 9-2-3 in their final 14 games, enough to lift them into the playoffs. They took on the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in the 1st round and many, including myself, predicted the Canucks would win and play for the Stanley Cup. Instead the Kings, behind Quick, shut down the high-scoring Canucks in five games, allowing just 8 goals. Quick was even more impressive against the 2nd seeded St. Louis Blues, where he allowed just 6 goals in a four-game sweep. Then the Kings displaced the 3rd seeded Phoenix Coyotes in 5 games as they moved onto the finals for the 2nd time in franchise history, the other was 1993 with Wayne Gretzky. The Kings were only the second team in NHL history to defeat the top-3 seeds in their conference, the other was the 2003-04 Calgary Flames, coached ironically by Darryl Sutter. The Kings continued their dominance in the first three games of the finals against the New Jersey Devils, outscoring them 8-2 as they were up 3-0 in the series. But the Devils fought back hard to win games 4 and 5 to force a 6th game back in L.A. However, the Kings scored 3 power play goals in the 1st period en route to a dominating 6-1 win and won their first-ever Stanley Cup in their 45-year history.

They finished a whopping 16-4 in the playoffs, including 10-1 on the roadwhich includes an NHL 10 consecutive road playoff victories and a road playoff record. Quick won the Conn Smythe Trophy with a 16-4 record, an incredible .946 save % and a 1.41 goals against average. Dustin Brown and Enze Kopitar tied for the lead in scoring with 8 goals and 20 points and a +16. Justin Williams had a good playoff and defensemen Drew Doughty was simply amazing averaging over 26 minutes of ice time. Former Flyers Mike Richards and Jeff Carter both had great playoffs after they both had down regular seasons. Richards and Carter showed the Flyers how wrong they were for shipping them away after last season’s playoff loss and they were the scapegoats because they partied and drank too much. How does that feel now Philly? They beat the team that beat you in the playoffs. Add Simon Gagne and former coach Flyer coach and current assistant coach John Stevens, and its even more pain for Flyer fans who have been waiting for a Cup since 1975. I could not be happier just based on that merit.

How in the world did the Kings win? Beats the heck out of me. It shows you that now you can make the playoffs and you have a strong shot to win. New Jersey could have won and they would be the first 6th seed to win the Cup, but they were no ordinary 6th seed as they had 100 points and barely finished 4th in the super competitive Atlantic Division. There is a lot of questions up coming for the Devils including will Brodeur retire and will they be able to keep some free agents, such as Zach Parise? I do want to congratulate New Jersey on a fantastic season despite the disappointing ending.