I want the Islanders to Give the Sabres Their 2015 1st Round Pick

I've been thinking about the up-coming 2014 NHL Draft where it appears that the Sabres will more than likely be drafting either 1st or 2nd in the draft. They have a 99% chance according to sportsclubstats.com they be drafting 1st or 2nd with a 94% chance they finish with the worst record in the league. The Sabres have a 25% chance of winning the Draft Lottery (which is easily the best odds of winning) if they finish last. If they lose the lottery, they draft 2nd, still a great chance at a great pick and player. I'll write more in a different entry about how great it is to draft in the top-2-3 picks as the NHL Draft pretty much always produces really good to great players in the top-2 or 3 spots.

They traded unrestricted free agent-to-be, 30-40-goal scorer Thomas Vanek to the New York Islanders for forward and fellow 30-goal scorer Matt Moulson, a 2014 1st round pick, and a 2015 2nd round pick. Now the Islanders can keep the 1st round pick this year if they draft in top-10 and then they can defer it and give us their 1st round pick for next year. The Islanders have struggled badly as they are 22-30-8 with only 52 points. Right now they'd be drafting 5th if the season were to end, or 6th if a team behind them wins the lottery or they could be drafting 1st if they win the lottery. Barring a ridiculous post-Olympic run, the Islanders will be no doubt drafting in the top-10, maybe top-5.

So I know many of you want their 2014 1st round pick because the Sabres could have two top-5 picks in this year's NHL Draft. But if I had my choice, I'd want their 2015 1st round pick. I know many of you are like "why would you risk a sure top-5, 10 pick on what could very well be a lower pick?" Good question and yes it could be a risk drafting lower than the top-5. But they could remain the same next year or be even worse. Now I don't have a crystal ball to predict the future but I don't see the Islanders getting better next year, I see them being the same if not worse next year, especially with Thomas Vanek being gone and probably won't return next year. If they again miss the playoffs and especially draft in the top-5, hopefully 2 or 3 so it increases our chances at hopefully getting the #1 overall pick and the top prospect in the 2015 Draft in Connor McDavid.

Supposedly next year's draft, led by top prospect McDavid, who is supposedly the enxt Sidney Crosby, is better than this year's class. Of course we'll never know for sure until they play the game and of course its all speculation. This year's draft with top prospects Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, and Leon Draisaitl aren't McDavid or Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin or Malkin or Kane or Stamkos; but they can be very good players as players drafted at the top of the NHL Draft usually are such as John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog or even Nathan MacKinnon. Who wouldn't want one of those?

I don't expect the Sabres to be good again next year so they'll be in the McDavid sweepstakes next year and hopefully with the Islanders pick will double their chances. Plus I heard Tim Murray wants mostly 2015 first round draft picks if he unloads Ryan Miller, Matt Moulson, and Steve Ott. The more the merrier for me!! You can't have enough great players and you get them at the top of the draft. Imagine we get one of the top-2 picks this year, McDavid and maybe even another top-5 pick next year? Who wouldn't get excited? Plus we might be able to get a big free agent or two such as Kane.

Like I said I don't think the Islanders will be better next year, I think they'll be the same or hopefully worse so we can get another pick towards the McDavid sweepstakes. The Islanders have a terrible defense and their goaltending is really bad as they allowed the most goals of any team. I don't see them fixing their defense/goaltending issues in one off season. I think GM Garth Snow is in win now mode and really can't afford to wait another bad year or else he'll be out of a job. He's been there for eight years and produced just two playoff appearances. If they are in the top-5 they might have to just take the pick and hope for the best even if the class isnt as good as next year's. Tim Murray has the luxury of waiting a draft or two to fix this mess.

The Islanders just came off a playoff appearance in which they gave the top-seeded Penguins all they could handle in six games last year and hopes were very high for this once downtrodden franchise. They started a mediocre 4-4-3 when they traded for Vanek. Unfortunately, the Vanek deal has not brought a ton of success as the losses began to pile up. They've lost 31 of their last 49 games (26 of the losses were in regulation). Their 22 wins and 52 points in 60 games are two fewer wins and three fewer points than they had all last season in just 48 lockout-shortened games when they made the playoffs. They are moving to Brooklyn after next season and will need some marquee players in addition to Vanek to show they belong in the big city instead of the island. So they would be wise to wait till 2015 for McDavid but it's hard to predict whether they'll be as bad or worse next year.

They only have one good line which is John Tavares, Kyle Okposo and Vanek. Not much scoring outside of that line. Plus I think Vanek is gone, he'll probably be traded before the trade deadline as he recently turned down a 7-year, $50 million contract (which is the same contract he signed 7 years ago) extension from the Islanders as he wants to test the open market. Who can blame him? He's 30 years old, he will have maybe one big chance to make big money on the open market as he's averaged over 30 goals a season for his first 8 years in the league (which will bring big bucks to a team that needs goal scoring), and he's never had a chance to go to any or all teams to see what he's really worth and who really wants him. He's been in Buffalo all his career until last October when he was traded to the Islanders.

He's never had a chance to test the open market. 7 years ago when he was a restricted free agent, the Sabres matched the offer by the Edmonton Oilers which kept him here another 7 years. the Sabres just lost Briere and Drury for nothing and needed to keep a guy who just scored 43 goals and 84 points instead of taking Edmonton's 4 first round picks. Who knows, maybe Vanek wanted to leave and maybe he was upset that the sabres matched it and didn't allow him to leave for Edmonton or maybe somewhere else. Plus he was wondering if the Sabres really wanted him, why did they let him go to possibly be signed by another team and why didn't they give him an offer before? The Sabres, notable Darcy Regier really dropped the ball on that one.

So yea, I'm not only in 2014 NHL Draft mode, I'm also in 2015 NHL Draft mode because I expect the Sabres to be closer to the lottery than the playoffs for Connor McDavid. I hate to root for them to be bad, but I can't help but want a couple of high draft picks for potential great players. This franchise hasn't had generationally great superstars in a long time. Even for those of you who don't want to lose for the top pick in the 2015 Draft, that's why I want the Islanders to give us the 2015 pick and hope they are really bad so we get the top pick or win the lottery. Could you imagine being an Islanders fan and you give away what could be Connor McDavid? The fans would riot. But I hope the Sabres end up with him,

Trade Miller, Build a Better Team, Don't Waste Big $$$ on a Goalie

I believe that trading Ryan Miller makes the most sense for this team if they want to rebuild and hopefully build a future winner. It makes no sense 1.) keeping a goalie who is 33 and will be 34 next season and 2.) keeping a goalie who is set to be an unrestricted free agent who doesn't seem to want to be here or else he'd sign already and they are in last place by a mile. Everyone is upset and panicking what will they do without Miller. Um hello, they are in last place, they aren't winning anything with him playing as well as he is.

If you say they'd be even worse, I think you're wrong I don't think they can really be that much worse. They have the fewest goals scored with 110 and they're 25 behind the team with the next fewest. They're 15 wins are the least and they are 5 wins behind the next team which is Edmonton with 20 and their 38 points are nine fewer than Edmonton, who is the second-worst team in the NHL. It can't get much worse than that. What they win 3-5 fewer games and have 10 fewer points? Big whoop. The Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames, Florida Panthers, and New York Islanders are really, really bad but they are miles ahead of the Sabres. For me I like it because it means they have a really strong shot at the #1 overall pick in this June's draft and this team needs as many great players as possible and you get them at the top of the draft.

If you're gonna be upset that they'd trade Miller rather than re-sign him, would you rather risk losing him for nothing instead of hopefully getting a 1st round pick and maybe even a prospect? I don't think he's re-signing here and I don't think GM Tim Murray is interested in giving a long-term deal. So because of foolish pride, you'd risk losing him in free agency rather than getting something for him? I can understand if this team was say 7th, 8th, or even 9th place and are trying to get into the playoffs and don't want to lose him for the playoff run, but this team is in last place!!! It should be even easier to let him go and get over it.

This isn't like when we lost Briere and Drury after the 2007 season for nothing as they both signed deals with other teams as unrestricted free agents. The team came off a President's Trophy season and came off back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals appearances and were Stanley Cup contenders. I don't care what anyone thinks, the Sabres are still struggling to replace both those men as they will miss the playoffs for the 5th time in 7 years. It's also not like losing Dominik Hasek, yea we traded him but got nothing no where near what we should have in return because he didn't want Detroit to give up too much so he can win the Stanley Cup. Hasek took us to an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in 1998 and all the way to Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals in 1999 and even lost in the 2nd round in overtime in Game Seven against Pittsburgh before he left. The team was very competitive and fell apart. But in this case, they are the worst team in hockey and it ain't even close.

I want to say I like Miller a lot and I hate to see him go. I appreciate all he has done here for the Sabres, for WNY, and for USA Hockey. I'll root for him of course in the Olympics and I'll even root for him if he leaves because I want him to succeed. I know what many of you are thinking: "if you like him and think he's so good, why do you want him traded? This team needs great players and why get rid of our best?" That is a great question and here is the answer. Because a goalie, even a really good one like Miller, really can't do much by himself on a terrible team.

Many of you are thinking "but if we build a better team, then it would help him out." True so why not just build a better team then? In the NHL, it's important to find a good goalie but you don't need a top-notch goalie to win. Teams have won post 2004-05 Lockout with decent, OK goalies but with better talent in forwards and defense. Notice I didn't say terrible goalie but if you can find a mediocre to slightly mediocre one and put him on a great team, they'll win no matter what. The goalies are pretty much similar as there are only a couple of elite and only a couple of really bad ones, everyone else is pretty much the same. So my question is if goalies are pretty much the same, then why pay big bucks for one when you can put money into much better forwards and defensemen and win with an average goalie?

It's about goal scoring and how do you score? With great puck possession numbers!! I looked at the top-8 teams in the NHL in terms of points (Chicago, Anaheim, St. Louis, Boston, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Colorado, and Tampa Bay) and all 8 of those teams are in the top-12 in goals scored and all are in the top-9 in puck possession. Guess where the Sabres rank? You guess it!! Dead last. Last year they were second-to-last only to the analytics nightmare known as the Toronto Maple Leafs. If you spend more time in your end than in the other team's end, then you will not score many goals and have more goals scored on you. So what would be the point of having a great, high-priced goalie who gets all these shots and goals scored on? It's not just stop the puck, there's all these bounces and deflections that go in all the time that you can't stop if you are in your own end. Conversely, if you are in the other team's end, then you'll get all the bounces and deflections. This team needs to be better possessing the puck. If a Miller trade can help enable that, then I'm all for it.

Miller is in the last year of his current deal which is worth $6.25 million a season, currently the 5th highest paid goalie in the NHL. To re-sign him you probably have to pay him in the $7-8 million a year range to keep him here as it appears he might want to move closer to his wife. Then you gotta give him 5-7 years so he'd be in his 40s by the time the contract is done. I don't want to do that. I looked up the goalie salaries and seven of the top-10 goalies are either barely in the playoffs, on the outside looking in, or completely out of the playoffs. That doesn't even include Henrik Lunqvist, whose $7.5 million a year deal doesn't kick in until next season, making him the highest-paid goalie in the NHL. I just don't get it, I'd never give a goalie that kind of money. Lundqvist and Jonathan Quick are the two best but teams paying goalies in the $2-3 million range are winning and are near or at the top of the league.

Players such as Ben Scrivens, Ben Bishop, Josh Harding, Cory Schneider, Frederik Andersen, Brian Elliott, and Jaroslav Halak are among the leaders in save percentage and goals against average and outperforming their much higher-paid counterparts. It shows if you have a great team, you can win with almost any goalie. Quick is having a great season, but was injured early in the year and Scrivens did well in his place and even third-string goalie Maritn Jones has played very well which led the Kings to trade Scrivens to Edmonton once Quick was healthy. Scrivens is doing well on a terrible Oilers team with no defense. Last year, Ray Emery, who was a big disappointment in the NHL, went 17-1-0 with a .922 save % and a 1.94 goals against average. Is it because Emery is good or the Blackhawks are great? Well it's because the Blackhawks are great. Emery is struggling on a worse Flyers team. Would you rather have Emery on a great Blackhawks team or Miller on a terrible Sabres team? I'd hope you'd answer Emery, but I can't control what you think or believe.

I want this organization and the fans to think they can win without Miller because it's probably gonna happen. That's what I hated about this organization under Darcy Regier is that they thought they can't dare win without Miller or they were doomed. The fans were conditioned to think the same. He's good but you can win without him. Miller as good as he is couldn't help this team from missing the playoffs five out of the last seven years including this year. The team was bad. When the Sabres were awesome in 2005-06 and 2006-07, they won with Miller and Martin Biron, in fact I believe Biron had something like a 12-game unbeaten streak one point. Even when the Sabres made the playoffs in 2011, Jhonas Enroth played very well in relief of Miller down the stretch run as he went 9-2-2 and an 8-game unbeaten streak which helped them make the playoffs I don't care what anybody says. Enroth's numbers are very similar to Miller's and can't do much more without a competant offense and team in front of him more than Miller can and he makes about 1/5 of the money Miller makes. We can win with Enroth (I'm not saying he's better than Miller but he's not worse) or any kid down in Rochester or anyone floating around the NHL.

I hate to say it, but it's time fans to move on from Miller and start over with a brand new identity that focuses on scoring and puck possession while the goalie is what he is supposed to be, the last line of defense. But go Miller and Team USA!!! Let's win the Gold!!

EJ Needs To Win on the Road

There's no doubt about that if E.J. Manuel wants to be the franchise quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, he needs to win and play much better on the road then he has so far. Of course he's a rookie and rookies obviously struggle in year one, minus Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Big Ben to name only a small few. Outside of those, pretty much every rookie struggles in year one, but shows some promise at the end of the year and by the end of year two going into year three show you whether or not they are going to be the franchise guy or not.

Manuel has shown flashes of brilliance as well as struggles that every rookie goes through. He's been good at home/Toronto but has been bad I mean really bad on the road. Again, on a not so good football team with a rookie QB I don't expect a ton of wins, especially on the road. But what I need to see is at least one win and good performances in general from him on the road in their final two road games and this week's game at Jacksonville is the easier of the two, and that's not even that easy considering Jacksonville has won four of its last five after starting 0-8. Obviously the last game is New England and I just don't see Buffalo winning there, they never won at Gillette Stadium and haven't won in Foxborough since 2000, before Gillette was even built.

EJ has been a completely different QB at home/Toronto then he was on the road. In his five home games, Manuel has completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,068 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions along with a 91.8 QB Rating and a 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Pretty darn good numbers for almost anyone, especially a rookie. Oh yea, he is 3-2 at home and his two losses were by a combined 5 points. They lost on a late field goal to New England in the opener after which EJ played pretty darn well for a rookie in his NFL debut and lost in overtime in Toronto to Atlanta after both Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler fumbled, costing EJ a chance at a 4th quarter or overtime victory.

His final drive against Carolina was something of a beauty. He had his struggles during the game with an interception and a lost fumble but overcame that by leading an 80-yard drive with no timeouts left to throw a TD pass to Stevie with little time remaining. The win over Carolina looks even better now because of how well Carolina has played since. He completed 27 of 39 passes for 296 yards. His best game as a pro so far was the game against the New York Jets as he completed 20 of 28 passes for 245 yards for two long touchdowns in a 37-14 blowout of the Jets. EJ played very bad against the Jets earlier in the year at the Meadowlands but rebounded very nicely in this game. Plus EJ showed he could throw the deep ball, something that had been lacking in his game as he threw four long passes of 31 yards or longer. His one drive went just two plays with a 40-yard pass to TJ Graham and then followed that up with a 43-yard touchdown bomb to Marquise Goodwin. Plus EJ even had two QB sneaks on a 3rd-and-one and a 4th-and-one that were both converted for 1st downs to keep drives alive.

But on the road, it gets very, very ugly. He is 0-4 on the road and completed just 52.2% of his passes for 711 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, a very dismal 57.2 QB Rating, and an even more dismal 5.3 yards per attempt. Also, 20 of his 24 sacks have come on the road including 7 this past game at Tampa and 8 against the Jets. He must be more nervous or tentative in the pocket when on the road. Maybe the crowd noise or whatever gets to him, very understandable on the road in hostile environments. He needs to be able to overcome them. He's very cool and calm and relaxed in the pocket at home. Now he was pretty decent at Cleveland on Thursday night before he was injured as he was probably going to win that game. But he got hurt and missed the next four games and the Bills went 1-3, probably costing them a playoff berth.

His first road game was at the Jets which he was sacked eight times, most of it on the O-Line. EJ however really struggled and kept throwing deep passes out of bounds and not keeping them in play for a chance at a play or penalty. The positive was that how bad he played, he rallied them from a 20-6 deficit to tie the game at 20-20 late in the 4th with a nice TD pass to Scott Chandler, before the Bills blew it by giving up a TD to lose the game 27-20. At Pittsburgh, it was EJ's first game after missing more than a month with his injury and played absolutely dreadful. He was scared and kept checking down all day long, not going deep at all as he had no confidence whatsoever. That game scared me into thinking he was Trent Edwards all over again. I can see playing in Pittsburgh and against a great defensive mind like Dick LeBeau could be intimidating as he owns rookie QBs plus he was a little rusty. EJ completed just 22 of 39 passes for 155 yards for a dreadful 4.0 yards per attempt, but he only had 11 completions for 79 yards until a late garbage time TD drive where he completed 11 passes for 76 yards.

He did rally from that awful performance to play his best game against the Jets so everything seemed OK. Then came this past week at Tampa. Now if he was intimidated at Pittsburgh or even New York with the hostile crowd i could understand. Plus the cold weather and very windy conditions esp at Pittsburgh are tough for anybody. But this was Tampa, it was 80 something degrees and very sunny. No weather concerns whatsoever. Plus there was not much of a crowd so that couldn't be a problem either. And don't forget, he played his entire college career in Florida. And it was by far his worst game, even worse than Pittsburgh where I didn't think he could be worse. He was like a combination of Edwards and JP Losman. Very bad. So what was the problem? The Bills failed to score a single TD on a day in which the NFL set a record for most TDs scored in a single day, and many of those were scored in very snowy and horrible weather conditions. Again what was the problem? He was sacked 7 times and the line played bad at times. But half of those were on EJ himself as he missed seeing wide open receivers and had time to throw on at least four of his sacks. Plus he threw four INTs in which two of them were off receivers hands and the other two were terrible throws by him. His QB Rating was 31.2.

If anything was to change this season, it would be that the Bills don't get blown out on the road like they have the previous 13 years. But this season looks the same in terms of road blow out losses and EJ has been responsible for two of those and a third had he not played well in the 4th quarter against that Jets. If anything is going to change for this franchise in the future, its playing better and especially winning on the road if this team wants to be in the playoffs. And it starts with EJ playing much better than he has on the road and he must win on the road as well. You can't just win at home you know. This must start this week against Jacksonville. We shall see or else another QB has come and gone.

Upon Further Review; Geno Smith was only good against Justin Rogers

I know many say that Geno Smith “outplayed” E.J. Manuel in Sunday’s Bills loss to the Jets but the truth is, Smith only played well because one man made him look a lot better than he really was. That man’s name was Justin Rogers. Rogers is nothing more than a backup cornerback who really should be on the practice squad, or selling insurance for that matter, who only played because their top cornerbacks were injured and the Bills had no one else.

Smith completed his biggest passes to receivers who were “covered” by Rogers but that’s because they were mostly wide open. Any decent QB should be able to make the plays against such weak coverage. If not he shouldn’t be in the National Football League. 

Upon further review however, Smith didn’t look too good when he threw against other defenders not named Justin Rogers. The Bills best corner Stephon Gilmore is still out with his surgically repaired wrist and can’t come back soon enough. Leodis McKelvin went down with a hamstring injury and did not return the rest of the game. Even Ron Brooks is out indefinitely with a leg injury.

That meant playing safety Aaron Williams back to cornerback, a position in which he struggled badly his first two seasons in the league but played decent Sunday especially compared to Rogers. That meant one of our starting safeties had to move up to play corner. Rogers as you can tell is the team’s fourth cornerback. This doesn’t even include their best member of their secondary, safety Jairus Byrd who is out with plantar fasciitis.

Ok everyone, if you haven’t seen this already, I’m warning you about the numbers Smith put up against Rogers yesterday so go grab a sickness bag just in case. Trust me you’ll need it. Smith completed six of eight passes (75% completion) for 254 yards, a whopping 31.75 yards per attempt as four of those six passes went for 40 yards or more, and two touchdowns for an almost perfect 156.3 QB rating (two points shy of perfection). That’s not a joke that’s God’s honest truth.

Three of every four passes was complete with an average of 32 yards and one of every four passes was a touchdown. This does not include a 22-yard pass interference penalty against Rogers as well. 

Assume the penalty yardage were a completion, Smith would’ve been 7 for 9 (78%) for 276 yards and two touchdowns. One of the two touchdowns Rogers was beaten on was a 69-yard pass to Santonio Holmes in the 4th quarter after the Bills tied the game 20-20 to put the Jets ahead 27-20, which is the score they actually won by.

Ok hand me the sickness bag as I am throwing up just writing this as we speak. Rogers in all fairness just should not be in the lineup ever. He’s not an NFL corner at all. You don’t want to use injuries as an excuse but in this case when you have your top-3 corners out, your best safety out, and your other starting safety playing corner the results aren’t expected to be great especially in a passing league nonetheless. I think you could literally have no one cover the Jets corners instead of Rogers and I don’t think Smith could have done much better that’s how terrible Rogers was (I really hate trashing Rogers I really do).

But for those who thought Geno Smith was so much better than E.J. wait just one second as I am about to show Geno’s whopping numbers against those not named Justin Rogers. He was 10 for 21 (48%) for 77 yards, a measly 3.7 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a pathetic 17.5 QB rating. 

Those numbers don’t look so good. His overall numbers were pretty decent 16 of 29 for 331 yards, an impressive 11.4 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks, a not so hot 55 completion % and an 89.9 passer rating.

If you take the numbers vs. Justin Rogers and those not against Justin Rogers, they are extremely day and night. That’s been Geno Smith’s rookie season as he had some impressive moments followed by some awful moments. 

Of course one of the two interceptions was by linebacker Kiko Alonso, but I bet Alonso could have played cornerback in place of Rogers and could not have been beaten as badly and probably would have done a much better job against Jets receivers.

If anyone thinks the Bills made a mistake by drafting Manuel over Smith and think we took the wrong guy especially after Sunday’s game, don’t get it twisted. After all, it’s just one game between the two and three games into both men’s rookie seasons. 

Hopefully you read the above numbers Smith had vs. Rogers and the numbers against anyone else and think “my God he was really good against a practice squad corner but lousy against other somewhat decent defensive backs.” 

He should be great against the team’s 4th string corner; otherwise he shouldn’t even be in the NFL. But against other decent DBs he was terrible and he showed he is still a very raw rookie that needs to grow and develop.

Had Gilmore played or McKelvin not went down or even if Byrd was healthy, the Bills would’ve won despite how bad E.J. struggled throughout the game because Smith would’ve struggled worse. Instead there was a cornerback who looked like me out there and that’s why Smith did decent and the Jets won. 

Manuel was not good, completed less than half his passes for a 5.8 yards per attempt, he was sacked 8 times, threw countless balls out of bounds, and constantly looked rattled in his first road game against a superior defense. 

But he awoke in the second half and especially in the 4th quarter where he rallied the Bills from a 20-6 deficit to tie the game at 20-20 with a beautiful 33-yard touchdown pass to Scott Chandler and threw a nice pass to Stevie Johnson for the two-point to tie the game, only for Rogers to give up the game-winning TD.

Smith had the luxury playing against the Bills’ 4th string corner and banged up secondary while Manuel had to play against a very good Antonio Cromartie, rookie Kyle Wilson, no Darrelle Revis but the Jets’ secondary and defense is still one of the best in the league. 

Plus Manuel played behind Colin Brown, who was perhaps the Justin Rogers of the offensive line. Had the two QBs switched teams and Manuel got to play against Justin Rogers and the beat up Bills secondary and Smith had to play against the Jets’ strong defense, would Smith do better than E.J.? My guess probably not. 

I’d think E.J. would have done better than 10 of 21 for 77 yards against the other members of the Bills secondary not named Justin Rogers. Smith would have put up very similar if not worse numbers than E.J. did against the Jets defense. If the Bills had even one of their best corners play they would have beaten Geno and Jets.

I’m not going to say E.J. is better but he’s also not worse, it’s too early to tell. I’ve seen both E.J. and Geno play their first two games and E.J. played way better than Geno. It’s not just the stats even though E.J.’s first two regular season starts were better. 

Manuel completed 68% of his passes with 3 TDs, 1 INT, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 95.9 QB Rating. Smith on the other hand, completed just 53% of his passes for 1 TD, 4 INTs, 6.4 yards per attempt, and a 55.2 QB Rating. 

But what I was saw from their first two starts and even watched them in two preseason games each was that Manuel was more calm and poised in the pocket like a veteran QB and even out of the pocket and made nice plays as he looked like he was ready to play. Smith on the other hand was wild and careless with the ball and even looked like a rookie that wasn’t ready to play in the NFL, especially in the preseason.

Manuel struggled a lot of the game in New York and looked more like a rookie as he was not as poised and was a bit timid and shell shocked whereas Smith looked great only when he threw against Justin Rogers. But he was not as good against everyone else. Smith was lucky in Week 1 when he ran out of bounds and was hit late to setup the game-winning field goal. 

Smith did not play well that game and if it were not for the late hit, the Jets would not have won the game as they were out of field goal range prior to the penalty. Last week against New England, Smith struggled throwing 3 INTs and completed less than 50% of his passes and if he were better and more accurate, they’d have beaten the Pats.

Smith was lucky in his two wins as he was hit really late out of bounds and threw against the Bills’ 4th string cornerback. If he is not hit out of bounds against Tampa and played against one of our top-3 corners, Smith would be 0-3. The Jets defense played well in all three of their games and they kept the Jets in every game. But Smith has not impressed me at all except throwing against Justin Rogers, that’s it. 

I want him to lose and fail nothing against Smith but I don’t want another QB to be good in this division. We struggle enough against Brady. Of course we struggle against Rex Ryan and the Jets’ defense and struggled against Mark Sanchez. I also don’t want Smith to be good because I don’t want it to look like the Bills took the wrong QB. 

Of course I’m trying to focus on E.J. being the guy more so than Smith not being the guy. After all, these are the top-two QBs in this year’s draft class and they play in the same division so the comparisons will run ramp shod between the two as they’ll someday play each other for the division title (assuming Brady retires soon). 

This might not be Luck vs. RGIII but as long as Manuel plays well and wins, who cares? In a perfect world, E.J. would be our franchise QB and Smith will fall flat on his face. The worst case scenario will be the exact opposite.

I don’t dislike Smith personally and me bashing him for his performance Sunday isn’t sour grapes but he plays for the Jets, my second most hated team only behind New England. I want them to fail just like I hope the Pats will someday. So from now on, Smith is my enemy, public enemy #2 behind only Tom Brady.

My Rant Against the Local Sports Media

I am a longtime Buffalo Sports Fan as well as a longtime listener of local sports talk on WGR 550 and even back in the day on WBEN 930 before WGR became exclusively an all-sports station. Even when WNSA, owned by the now defunct Empire Sports Network, was on the air, it was awesome to listen to with such local sports personalities as Mike Schopp ("Sports Talk for Smart People" or "Sports Talk for Smart-Asses" as one Chuck Dickerson once said lol), Howard Simon, Art Wander, Bob Koshinski, Jim Brinson, and Zig Fracassi. I've had my ups and downs in all my years listening to the local sports talk here in Buffalo. But lately, the past couple of weeks or so I've had some issues with the local sports talk radio, mostly WGR 550. I like WGR but sometimes some of the hosts have a tendency to take a cheap shot at some nationally syndicated radio hosts. I find it a little petty and stupid at times.

Back in June, WGR replaced the nationally syndicated Colin Cowherd with a year-round talk show about the Buffalo Sabres with Kevin Sylvester as host. Nothing personal against Sylvester, but I am not a fan of listening him. I never was a fan of his dating back to the days he was on WGR before he was fired 8 years ago and replaced by current morning show hosts Howard Simon and Jeremy White. Sylvester is pretty corny and has nothing interesting to offer. Then for some stupid reason, they have Andrew Peters co-hosting with him. When I thought Peters couldn't suck at anything worse than he did at hockey, he proved me wrong as listening to him talk is a lot worse. The fact that they have a Sabres show that is all year long to me is a little ridiculous. How much can we talk about the Sabres? I know this is Buffalo but we can only talk so much Sabres. July and August are slow months for hockey and unless we got some major superstar, there's only so much you can talk about. It does not make for good radio. I've listened only a little of the show and its pretty boring.

As for Cowherd, I used to not like him about 4-5 years ago. But I had a problem that I am about to admit to you during that time. I was a very big "homer." I could not think or act straight when listening or talking sports. It was all about the Bills and Sabres and nothing else. No one could ever criticize my teams. But over time, I listened more to Cowherd and I started to think clearly and gained more better perspective and wisdom and learned how to take the emotion out of it. He began to make so much sense. I started to agree more and more because he was usually right about things. He is very smart. I love how Cowherd makes so much sense about certain points. I love how he talks about the business and economic side of sports more than just Xs and Os. That makes for so much more interesting radio and he points out to people and is very blunt about how certain things are good for his show and ratings and others would take him off the air. I owe a lot to Cowherd for showing me the error of my ways in the past about sports and even life in general. Plus he can down right hilarious and not like how the local guys act like 8 year olds. He can be offensive and I am OK with that!! Sure he talks a lot about Lebron or the Patriots or the Yankees and does not talk hockey, but that's OK. Hockey talk can be pretty boring outside of Buffalo as it does not draw the national attention like football and basketball do. Sorry, that's the truth. I don't miss Cowherd because of the ESPN Radio app on my phone and I put that on a while ago so I could listen the full 3 hours of his show instead of the two they played here on WGR. I also like Jim Rome a lot but I like Cowherd more because sometimes Rome's show can too stupid. But Rome himself can damn funny the way he burns on some of his takes.

Some of the local guys take cheap shots at Cowherd even today and I'm like "dude, he's on ESPN and he has a ton more listeners and probably makes more money than you guys combined. Get over it, you sound pathetic." Just because he doesn't talk hockey or Buffalo sports doesn't mean he's worthless. I'm a huge Buffalo guy and Buffalo Sports fan, but even I have my limits when talking about either team especially when they suck like the Bills have for the last 12 years and the Sabres are too hot and cold. I need my break to listen to important stuff around the country. I like the national perspective every now and then, it makes things more interesting. The Bills are more interesting now because of the moves they made, but before it was painful to listen. When the Sabres struggle, they are hard to talk about or listen. But sometimes, the local guys are homers and shills and the way they talk about the sports here does not make for interesting radio.

Sal Capaccio is interesting to listen to from time to time, but I got to admit, him being a homer at times annoys me. When the Bills are not going good, he does the whole "rah rah" thing and its like OK shut up. Howard Simon and Jeremy White are entertaining most of the times, but sometimes they act like little children and it gets annoying. I also don't like how giddy they get like a school girl when they interview someone. It makes them sound lame and it doesn't make for good radio. I don't like this whole training camp thing where they interview mostly anonymous players and I hear the same old thing from every player and how they are all giddy. They sound so small time and that's why Colin is in the big leagues because he talks Yankees, Patriots, Lebron, Tiger Woods, USC, and so on. We are in the minor leagues, a Mickey Mouse organization if you will. I do like Mike Schopp a lot because he's not a homer even though he is born and raised in WNY. He is brilliant and even has a Cowherd like way to his methods with his perspective. He sometimes though tries too hard to prove how smart he is whereas Cowherd is so natural with the way he does things and then you see how brilliant he really is. But Schopp is not like Sal or whoever that says "the Bills are awesome!!" Schopp criticizes both the Bills and Sabres for their management and such. People don't like Schopp, but he make things very interesting and it drives up the ratings. Bulldog is a longtime fan and I like that. But I don't like how he makes no sense and just rambles on nonstop and makes noises instead of words.

Before I go, I like John Murphy's show at night. I always liked Murph and he does things with dignity and class. His interviews with players are first class. He is not a shill and does not get all giddy like a school girl. He treats them like adults and does not treat them any different because they are athletes. Murph is smart and like one of my favorites to listen to, former Bills GM Bill Polian, makes me smarter when I listen to him. I'm sure many of you disagree and would love to hear from you.

Is There A Problem With Lindy Ruff?

Ever since the season ended with the Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs, Lindy Ruff has been the topic of interest or concern. Fans and even media wonder whether Lindy should be fired or kept for another year. Sure, Terry Pegula has given both Ruff and Darcy Regier a vote of confidence and assures that both aren't going anywhere for the foreseeable future much to the chagrin to many Sabres fans. But, players have come out either publicly or secretly and have told what they felt about Ruff that he's too negative and that his coaching style has been too tough or his demeanor has been a problem or whatever. Derek Roy has criticized him in the press after the season. Brad Boyes just signed with the Islanders also criticized Ruff as well. Ruff had spent the second half of the season making Thomas Vanek his personal Whipping Boy. Question is: Is There A Problem With Lindy Ruff? Should he be on the hot seat? Should he be gone?

Ruff has been the Sabres head coach since 1997 and is the longest tenured head coach of any team in the NHL and of any of the four major sports in general. Ruff and Regier (who became the GM also in 1997) are also the longest tenured coach-GM combination currently in professional sports. But has it been too long? Many fans feel yes. As do I. Look, I like longevity, but you have to earn it. I think of Ruff and Regier as good at what they do, but they never won the Stanley Cup or really been close. They have missed the playoffs six times in the last 10 seasons and it would have been seven out of 10 had they not gone on a huge run at the end of the 2010-11 season to barely make the playoffs. They haven't won a playoff series since 2007. I'm just focusing on Ruff mostly as Darcy is for another time. But it's hard to separate the two as they are inseparable. Again, different time for a different topic.

It's one thing not to win the Cup (they've been to the Finals only once and been to the Conference Finals three other times) but its another to be consistently in the playoffs and be a championship contender on a consistent basis. For example, Jerry Sloan with the Utah Jazz was their head coach for nearly a quarter of a century and even though they never won an NBA title, his teams were almost always in the playoffs (I think they missed about three or four times total) and were always in the hunt for the title. That's fine. Or in the NFL, Bill Cowher was the Steelers head coach for 15 years and won just ONE Super Bowl and went to another. But for those 15 years, his teams almost always made the playoffs and its really tough to make the playoffs in the NFL as only six teams out of 16 in each conference make the playoffs and four of those are division winners. It's not like the NHL where you have to better than half the conference in order to make the playoffs. Bobby Cox with the Atlanta Braves, won 15 consecutive division titles, but one the World Series only once. MLB is even tougher with just four teams each league with three division winners and one wild card. This year, a second wild card has been added, but its still tough to make the postseason. And the Sabres have been in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference in six out of the last 10 seasons and three of the last five. So if they miss the playoffs, he should be gone. Heck, he should be gone now. Good teams fire their coaches and good coaches get fired. That's the way it works. He'll get a job somewhere no doubt. Good for him. But here I think it's time for a change.

I believe there is some validity to what people say when Lindy "ruins" offensive players. I don't know about ruins, but he can hold them back. Some guys come here and are successful before and successful when they leave, but struggle here. Why is that? Not everybody obviously as Danny Briere and Chris Drury flourished here under Lindy's "system." But there seems to be a trend with offensive players struggling more times than not. Of course we never had a real offensive superstar come in here and Briere and Drury were not superstars when they came here. Brad Boyes, Raffi Torres, Steve Bernier, Dominic Moore, and Rob Niedermayer don't count. Lindy has done well developing the home grown talent over the years. He has not been able to get Roy to play on a consistent basis, but that's Roy's problem not Ruff's. Ruff always wants his players to be responsible in their own end and be a two-way offensive-defensive player. They all can't be Michael Peca. It's not easy for some players to be a defensive player. Mostly the players are just offensively gifted.

Of course Regier should get Ruff more players that fit his style. But you can't always have players that fit your need on your team and you should be able to adjust to your player's strengths and not their weaknesses. Ruff takes time away from offensively gifted players if they don't play well defensively even if they need offense and that player could help them. Ruff is very stubborn. I really don't care if a player can't play defense if he can score many goals. Do what's best for the team by allowing that player to do what he does best. He's on your team whether you like it or not, you might as well make the best of it. Great coaches find ways to win and get the most out of their players whether they fit their system or not. Ruff is a really good coach, but his stubbornness and pride get in the way of much needed "W's." Many fans believe that Ruff has some sort of reputation for not maximizing a player's offensive potential. They feel that big time offensive free agents won't sign here because they won't wanna play for Ruff. I don't know how true it is but if its true, then maybe its time for Ruff to go. If he is going to keep big free agent scorers from coming here, then he needs to go. It's time. I don't want to be like "(Insert player here) won't come here and even if he does, Ruff will just suck the life out of him and he won't be productive."

I'm sorry, you can never win a championship with that mentality or his negative attitude. He did briefly change his style of coaching when they came out of the lockout and for two years were one of the best teams in the NHL. He was awarded the coach of the year award for turning around the club after its fall prior to the lockout. Then after he lost his best players, he went back to old habits pre-lockout. I think Lindy is getting burned out from this and who can blame him? 15 years is a long time to be a coach for any one team. Unless he finds ways to win and do the best to get along with what he has, this team won't win a championship. It's more likely looking back at recent history that this team either won't make the playoffs or barely make and lose in the first round. Mr. Pegula, if your plan is to win a Cup soon, this simply will not do and changes need to be made. Hopefully Darcy can get the right players.

Bye Bye Derek Roy

Derek Roy being traded no doubt made a lot of Sabres fans happy yesterday, including myself. It was long overdue. I used to like Roy a lot. But I've gotten tired of his act the last few years. For me it was in the playoffs in 2010 when the 3rd seeded Sabres lost to the Bruins in the first round and he had zero goals that I wanted him gone. Fans disliked him long before. Many feel he's not a good teammate, is a problem in the locker room, is not a leader, not a good character guy, constantly clashes with Lindy Ruff, takes dumb penalties, whines to the refs, fails to show up in big games, fails to make his teammates better, and has a lack of focus because of all the partying that he does off the ice. Roy no doubt was a fairly productive player offensively in his Sabre career as he averaged nearly 0.80 points per game and had scored 18 or more goals in a full season every season from 2005-06 to 2009-10.

But Roy represents and might be the poster child for the "core" that has massively underachieved the last five years after both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere left in 2007. They were the young group of players that would carry this franchise to the promised land and failed to deliver. They had missed the playoffs three out of the last five seasons, including last season where they had the highest payroll in the league after Terry Pegula took over as owner in Feb. 2011. They also did not win a single playoff series. Whether or not these players were mentally tough enough or focused enough or just plain and simple not good enough, they couldn't get the job done. If the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, then this is not good enough and you have to shake up the roster and get better. They already let Tim Connolly leave and traded Paul Gaustad in the last year and now they traded Roy with one year left on his contract.

Roy's best statistical season came in the 2007-08 season, the season after Briere and Drury left, when he recorded 32 goals and 81 points in 78 games. From the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season, Roy averaged 27 goals and averaged 0.92 points per game a season. In the 2010-11 season, Roy was having by far his best season with 10 goals and 35 points in 35 games before he missed the rest of the regular season with a hip injury. This past season, Roy had his career-worst season stats wise (not counting his rookie season where he only played 49 games and the 2010-11 season where he only played 35) as he set career-lows in almost every major offensive statistical category. He scored only 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points, was a -7, and had a 9.7 shooting % (his career average is 12.7). His 0.55 points per game was by far the lowest of his career not counting his rookie season after he had a point a game the year before. By the way, Roy played in 80 of the 82 games this season. His 27 assists this season were only two more than the 25 he had in 35 games the year before. He only had nine more points in 80 games than he had the year before in 35 games. Roy had as many 12 power play assists alone in 2010-11 as he had power play points in 80 games this past season.

To be fair, Roy did come a serious injury that they claim you need two years to recover and he got the injury in December 2010. He in the last year of his 6-year, $24 million deal so he would be in a contract year and he might breakthrough for a chance at a great contract. But the Sabres have been trying to move Roy apparently for two years now and now they got a gritty forward in Steve Ott and a depth defenseman in Adam Pardy. Roy still has some value as he is a top-6 forward and could be a very productive second line center if his head is on straight. He is not a number one center and unfortunately for most of the season he was our number one center as the Sabres had perhaps the worst center depth in the league as any team at the beginning of the season. The Sabres are still looking for a center in free agency or via a trade and they drafted two in the first round in Mikhail Grigorenko and Zemgus Girgensons. Girgensons is supposedly going to play college for Vermont while hopefully Grigorenko makes the team and can be the guy who was potentially the number one pick and compared to Evgeni Malkin before falling to the Sabres at 12. Don't forget the Sabres have Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson as their top-two centers right now and they're both pretty good.

Roy's problem for whatever reason is that he just doesn't make anyone around him better. As a center, that's what you are supposed to do. Even Tim Connolly was better at that than Roy was. Connolly didn't score a ton of goals (never got to 20) and rarely scored when it mattered the most (hasn't scored a playoff goal since Game 1 of the Ottawa Series in 2006 prior to his concussion), but he made the wingers on his line very productive scorers as he was a really good setup man. Roy doesn't do that quite so much. This past season, Drew Stafford and Tomas Vanek were both on lines with Roy, both struggled. Stafford was having an awful year after having 30 the year before while he was with Roy. I think he still had a single digit goal total as late as February before rebounding to score 20 when he was on a line with Ennis at center and Marcus Foligno and they were the best line on the team. Stafford scored 31 in 62 games the year before with I believe Connolly at center. Vanek was on pace for a 40 goal season, but was moved to the line centered by Roy and struggled before finishing strong down the stretch with Hodgson at center. The biggest point of Roy bringing the team down came in 2010-11 when he had 35 points in 35 games. But the Sabres record was 14-17-4 and were 10 points out of the playoffs with him in the lineup. The team outside of Roy struggled. Then after Roy was out, the Sabres went on a tear going 29-12-6 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference as they made the playoffs. I don't care what anyone says, there is some serious validity to Roy being out and the team being well. He played 80 games this past season and the Sabres underachieved and missed the playoffs.

So long Roy. It was nice knowing you.