With all the hype of getting Jack Eichel, there is the question of what to do at pick #21? Do the Sabres get a goalie and/or a top-6 forward like Jeff Skinner, Ryan O'Reilly, or even Kyle Okposo? For goalie, the top guys to be traded are New York Rangers' backup Cam Talbot and Vancouver's backup Eddie Lack.
The Rangers reportedly want two first round picks but could just want pick #21 from the Sabres and a conditional pick, That pick might be too high for a goalie. Lack could go for a 2nd or even 3rd round pick and that could be a good price. There's also LA Kings' backup Martin Jones, who they could go after with an offer sheet as he's a restricted free agent.
The Hurricanes are looking to move Skinner (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/jeff-skinner-might-be-available-id-go.html) as they want to re-sign both Eric Staal and Cam Ward (I don't know why). The Hurricanes are in the position they are in because of giving Ward a big contract years ago in the first place. He's been mediocre at best and even great goalies who sign big contracts aren't worth that, it's even worse for a mediocre or worse goalie. I remember the game against them in the final week of the season last year where he was awful and cost them the game by allowing 4 goals and almost hurt our chances at McEichel.
O'Reilly (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/i-would-trade-reinhart-for-oreilly-i.html) is pretty much done in Colorado especially after they just gave Carl Soderberg a five-year deal nearly worth five million a year. I love how the Avalanche continue to fail and not use analytics to their advantage. Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic continue to thumb their nose at analytics because "they played the game."
Analytics called for a regression this past season after they miraculously won the division and had a 100-point season in 2013-14 after finishing with the second-worst record in 2012-13. Many analytics experts felt they were lucky to win the division and called for them to lose in the first round (which they did) and expected them to fail, which they did as they had the 10th worst record this past season.
Islanders' GM Garth Snow said he wasn't going to trade Okposo but take that with a grain of salt. Okposo is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Okposo is a solid player who would be a good fit for the Sabres perhaps for the 21st overall pick. He's had 18 or more goals in three of the last four seasons (the only one he didn't was the lockout-shortened season) and has had 27 goals two seasons ago. He had 18 in only 60 games as he missed 22 with injury, which would put him around his career-high if he played the full season.
Patrick Sharp is also available but unlikely for the Sabres because of the steep asking price of the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks reportedly want a first round pick, a top prospect, AND a top six forward on an entry level contract. I expect the asking price to drop because Chicago needs to ,over some salaries because they're in cap trouble with the upcoming raises of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. I like Sharp but not at that price.
Whatever happens later today will be very interesting. Don't expect Tim Murray to not just take Eichel as he will do whatever to improve this team as quickly as possible. For those who think this is a five-year project will be in for a rude awakening.
Friday, June 26, 2015
Happy Eichel Day!!! This Will Be Our Best (Non Goalie) Player Since LaFontaine? Perrault?
"Today is the Greatest Day Ever!" - Smashing Pumpkins
This is great!! Tonight in about 12 hours or so the Sabres make it official they're drafting Jack Eichel second overall!! This has to be the most excited anyone has ever been over the second overall pick in the NHL or any draft for that matter maybe ever?! We've been talking about Eichel for over a year more like a year and a half when we started hearing about how he was going to challenge Connor McDavid for the top spot in the 2015 NHL Draft.
It felt like June 26, 2015 would never come but it's here finally!!! All our patience and sacrifice and suffering have finally paid off. Waiting and watching the team lose and getting into arguments with each other about whether or not we want the Sabres to win or lose for "McEichel" are all done. Thank God!!
This is the best offensive player since what? LaFontaine or even Perrault? I wasn't old enough to see Gilbert Perrault as he retired when i was about 4 or 5 years old. I definitely don't know the feeling it was when the Sabres drafted him as their first ever draft pick as I am sure no one really knew as the information isn't like it was today. I'm sure most felt he was the best player in the draft and the Sabres thankfully won the spinning of the wheel to get him so there might be some excitement. But I am sure no one followed this guy's career and even life for about two years.
I was only about 10 years old when LaFontaine was traded here and I wasn't quite following hockey yet. A couple of years later is when I really started to follow hockey and the Sabres so LaFontaine (and Mogilny) were already here kicking ass. I'm sure most know he was a star with the Islanders when he was traded here and most were very excited to get him. But he wasn't a draft pick of ours and this isn't the same as it is today.
Both LaFontaine and Perrault are Hall of Famers and we should expect Jack Eichel to be in that group maybe even better (no pressure). I expect him to be the best player in franchise history not just forward but even better than Dominik Hasek. I definitely want the greatest player in franchise history to be a scoring forward and not a goalie. I'm sick and tired of our better players in recent history to be a goalie and constantly be bailed out by a goalie every night.
This is a new day and a new era!! The draft can't come soon enough.
Coyotes Looking to Trade Pick #3; Bruins Rumored to Give up Dougie Hamilton for the Pick; They're Nuts if they Do That
The Arizona Coyotes are rumored to trade the third overall pick in tonight's draft. Teams rumored to be interested are the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Winnipeg Jets, and even the Boston Bruins. Sources state that the Bruins have talked to the Coyotes to move up to the third overall pick and reportedly are enamored with Boston College defenseman and Boston native Noah Hanifan.
Reports are that the Bruins would offer 22-year-old up-and-coming future star defenseman Dougie Hamilton as part of the deal. It would be ridiculous to trade a future star like Hamilton, a no. 1 defenseman, which is hard to come by, for what would be an 18-year-old rookie defenseman. Rookie defensemen usually struggle early on (unless you're Aaron Ekblad) and aren't no. 1 defensemen for at least a couple of seasons. Even our no. 1 Rasmus Ristolainen struggled a little early on.
Hanifan has potential to be a no. 1 but also has been listed as a potential bust as well. There are no guarantees with defensemen as there are with forwards. If I were to make this deal, I'd do it to move up for a no. 1 center in either Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner. Although Patrice Bergeron is a good no. 1 center, they need to find a younger possible replacement for him. They are also looking to move on from Milan Lucic and Zdeno Chara.
The Bruins are in cap trouble and might not be able to sign Hamilton, who is a restricted free agent. Boston and Hamilton are far apart in their contract negotiations. The Bruins have been a joke this decade trading away star forwards like Joe Thornton, Phil Kessel (say what you will about his effort which isn't great but he produces point wise), and especially Tyler Seguin. They essentially traded Kessel for Seguin as they traded Kessel for Toronto's first round pick, which ended up being the second overall pick and Seguin.
Those moves have come back to bite Boston in the rear, especially the Seguin deal. Yes they won the Cup in 2011 and went to the finals in 2013. Then they traded Seguin and have looked ridiculous in that trade as they got hosed by Dallas. Seguin looks like a star while no one in the trade has done anything for Boston. That's why Peter Chiarelli is the GM of the Edmonton Oilers right now. They were eliminated in the first round in the 2014 playoffs and missed the playoffs entirely last season and continuing to look like they're falling even farther. I couldn't be happier. Heck, Hamilton, helped get Boston in the playoffs last season before getting hurt and they struggled without him and missed the playoffs.
Boston President Cam Neely and new GM Don Sweeney want Boston to be even tougher than before and continue to be intent on trading skill for tougher players to be even tougher. Isn't that why they got into this mess in the first place? Well continue to be stupid and stubborn Boston while the rest of your division, and the Sabres, continue to lap you and laugh at you and your decisions.
Reports are that the Bruins would offer 22-year-old up-and-coming future star defenseman Dougie Hamilton as part of the deal. It would be ridiculous to trade a future star like Hamilton, a no. 1 defenseman, which is hard to come by, for what would be an 18-year-old rookie defenseman. Rookie defensemen usually struggle early on (unless you're Aaron Ekblad) and aren't no. 1 defensemen for at least a couple of seasons. Even our no. 1 Rasmus Ristolainen struggled a little early on.
Hanifan has potential to be a no. 1 but also has been listed as a potential bust as well. There are no guarantees with defensemen as there are with forwards. If I were to make this deal, I'd do it to move up for a no. 1 center in either Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner. Although Patrice Bergeron is a good no. 1 center, they need to find a younger possible replacement for him. They are also looking to move on from Milan Lucic and Zdeno Chara.
The Bruins are in cap trouble and might not be able to sign Hamilton, who is a restricted free agent. Boston and Hamilton are far apart in their contract negotiations. The Bruins have been a joke this decade trading away star forwards like Joe Thornton, Phil Kessel (say what you will about his effort which isn't great but he produces point wise), and especially Tyler Seguin. They essentially traded Kessel for Seguin as they traded Kessel for Toronto's first round pick, which ended up being the second overall pick and Seguin.
Those moves have come back to bite Boston in the rear, especially the Seguin deal. Yes they won the Cup in 2011 and went to the finals in 2013. Then they traded Seguin and have looked ridiculous in that trade as they got hosed by Dallas. Seguin looks like a star while no one in the trade has done anything for Boston. That's why Peter Chiarelli is the GM of the Edmonton Oilers right now. They were eliminated in the first round in the 2014 playoffs and missed the playoffs entirely last season and continuing to look like they're falling even farther. I couldn't be happier. Heck, Hamilton, helped get Boston in the playoffs last season before getting hurt and they struggled without him and missed the playoffs.
Boston President Cam Neely and new GM Don Sweeney want Boston to be even tougher than before and continue to be intent on trading skill for tougher players to be even tougher. Isn't that why they got into this mess in the first place? Well continue to be stupid and stubborn Boston while the rest of your division, and the Sabres, continue to lap you and laugh at you and your decisions.
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Jeff Skinner might be Available I'd go For Him; Maybe Eric or Jordan Staal Are Available Too
Jeff Skinner appears to now be on the trade market as well. Carolina is rebuilding picking in 5th in tomorrow night's draft. They are trying to get another high pick next year as well as possibly re-sign Eric Staal or else move him and brother Jordan and continue to rebuild. I'd take either Skinner or either Staal or take Skinner and maybe even Eric in a salary dump and let him play out one year before he becomes a UFA.
Skinner is a very talented and productive offensive player. He's only 22 soon to be 23 years old so he's just beginning his career really despite being in the league for five seasons already. Skinner was the 2011 Calder Trophy winner as rookie of the year, playing all 82 games and scoring 31 goals at just 18 years old. He's the first player to win the award entirely as an 18 year old since Buffalo's Tom Barrasso did it in 1983-84.
Skinner has had injury problems especially with concussions as he only appeared in 64 games the following season but scoring 20 goals. He had 13 goals in the lockout shortened season in 2012-13 which would have amounted to about 25 goals in a full season. Skinner had a career-high 33 goals in 2013-14 after playing in 71 games after missing games because of a concussion. He regressed to 18 goals, 31 points in 77 games on a terrible Hurricanes team.
I'm sure Carolina would want a lot for Skinner and if I were them, I'd ask for next year's first round pick because if the Sabres miss the playoffs which is likely, they can get a chance at a top-3 pick next year in the lottery. I'm sure they're going to want one of our defenseman either Zadorov or Pysyk and maybe one of our top young forwards. If the Sabres are interested in winning which I think they are, they can't worry about next year's pick or any prospects, which I don't think Tim Murray will.
Skinner is a very talented and productive offensive player. He's only 22 soon to be 23 years old so he's just beginning his career really despite being in the league for five seasons already. Skinner was the 2011 Calder Trophy winner as rookie of the year, playing all 82 games and scoring 31 goals at just 18 years old. He's the first player to win the award entirely as an 18 year old since Buffalo's Tom Barrasso did it in 1983-84.
Skinner has had injury problems especially with concussions as he only appeared in 64 games the following season but scoring 20 goals. He had 13 goals in the lockout shortened season in 2012-13 which would have amounted to about 25 goals in a full season. Skinner had a career-high 33 goals in 2013-14 after playing in 71 games after missing games because of a concussion. He regressed to 18 goals, 31 points in 77 games on a terrible Hurricanes team.
I'm sure Carolina would want a lot for Skinner and if I were them, I'd ask for next year's first round pick because if the Sabres miss the playoffs which is likely, they can get a chance at a top-3 pick next year in the lottery. I'm sure they're going to want one of our defenseman either Zadorov or Pysyk and maybe one of our top young forwards. If the Sabres are interested in winning which I think they are, they can't worry about next year's pick or any prospects, which I don't think Tim Murray will.
This is a Deep Draft But Will it Rival the 2003 Draft?
Tomorrow's NHL draft is considered to be a very deep, talent rich draft, especially in the first round. It's not just Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, which are the top prizes, but the top-5, 10, maybe even the entire first round has potential great talent. It's supposed to be the deepest draft since the 2003 NHL Draft. The question is will be be as deep as 2003? (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-can-this-year-s-class-rival-2003-1.3126035) Here's an old article from five years ago (http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/further-proof-that-the-2003-nhl-entry-draft-was-the-best-of-all-time).
NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.
This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.
12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.
Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.
The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.
Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.
It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.
The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.
Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.
Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.
The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.
Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.
The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).
That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.
NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.
This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.
12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.
Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.
The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.
Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.
It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.
The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.
Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.
Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.
The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.
Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.
The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).
That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.
Carey Price Cleans Up NHL Awards; Montreal Needs to Build a Better Team; I Would Hate to be the Canadiens
Last night Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price cleaned up the NHL Awards by winning both the Hart and Vezina Trophies, the first goalie to do that since Jose Theodore did it for the Canadiens in 2002 which is surprising. Dominik Hasek did it for us in 1997 and 1998. Price also won the Ted Lindsay Award for MVP voted on by the players of the NHL (first goalie to win the Lindsay since Hasek) and the William Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed during the regular season (189). Price clearly is the MVP of the league because he carries the Canadiens and carried them to the division title and 50 wins and 110 points.
Price has led the Canadiens to back-to-back 100 point seasons and three in a row if the lockout shortened 2012-13 season went 82 games as they had 63 points in 48 games (107 points over 82 games) and won two division titles in those three seasons. Problem has not been the regular season as Price has been a huge part of their success the past three seasons. The problem has been in the playoffs where they lost in the second round this past season to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who I thought were much better than Montreal despite finishing behind them in the standings.
I thought Tampa was the best team in the East this season because of all their young star players that they drafted at the top of the draft (along with a few select players found elsewhere in the draft). Hopefully the Sabres will emulate that success with their top draft picks, namely Jack Eichel. Ok, Montreal did lose in six games to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2014, but the Rangers, who as great if not better goalie, had much better skilled players than Montreal and beat them. The Canadiens were upset in the first round to the seventh seeded Ottawa Senators in 2013.
The problem with the Canadiens is that they lack a lot of skilled forwards that can score on a consistent basis and need a couple of top-3 draft pick forwards that can be stars (as do a lot of teams). That's what wins in the NHL, top-3 picks. Max Pacioretty is their best forward as he scored 37 goals and 67 points. Tomas Plekanec is pretty good as is Brendan Gallagher. Alex Galchenyuk has not lived up to the hype since being drafted 3rd overall three years ago. He did have his first 20-goal season of his career, but has been moved from center to wing as he has not yet shown he can be a center. Their other source of offense comes from P.K. Subban, who scored 60 points and is usually up there with Erik Karlsson for most points scored by a defenseman.
Despite allowing the fewest goals (thanks to Price and Subban), the Canadiens were only 18th in goals scored and even worse, they were just 23rd in Corsi. You don't win Stanley Cups with that bad of a Corsi rating as teams that win the Cup rank near or at the top. They don't have enough skilled players to have a great Corsi nor maybe they're coach isn't good at it or maybe they rely way too much on Price and Subban. I think the answer is all of the above. Another reason I thought the Canadiens weren't that great of a team was because they struggled to beat bad teams, namely the Buffalo Sabres. The 30th place Sabres went 3-0-1 against them this season. That's awful.
The Canadiens really need to build a better team in front of Price. Sadly, they are in no position to be able to tank and finish near or at the bottom of the league and get high picks as they are usually very good in the regular season. Problem is they won't ever win the Cup nor contend for it in their current model. Yes they'll have 100-point seasons. Yes they'll have division titles. Yes they'll even win a playoff series or even get to a conference finals on the strength of Price. But they'll never win the Cup or even seriously contend in this form.
This is why I would hate to be the Canadiens right now because they're in no man's land. Boston, Philadelphia, and New Jersey are probably worse off than Montreal because Montreal will have great regular seasons. But the Canadiens are nowhere close to getting elite level forwards that you need to win the Cup or contend on a regular basis. They have the elite goalie and elite defenseman to win the Cup but not the forwards which is what you need to win the Cup as Cup winners have several top-3 picks in the draft.
Montreal is probably never going to tank or bottom out anytime soon and will continue to rely on Price to win them and bail them out of games. They'll have their great regular seasons but nothing to show for it. This reminds me of the Sabres teams from a few years ago with Ryan Miller where they won the division and made the playoffs but lost in the first round because they didn't have elite forwards. That's something I never want to be in ever again where we build around a goalie and can't win without that guy in net. I don't ever want that nor do I wish that on my enemies.
Thankfully, the Sabres won't have to rely on elite goalies as their best player is not a goalie. Yes we need a goalie but I want the elite level forwards and find the goalie instead of the other way around. One team that knows from experience how that never works is the Buffalo Sabres.
Price has led the Canadiens to back-to-back 100 point seasons and three in a row if the lockout shortened 2012-13 season went 82 games as they had 63 points in 48 games (107 points over 82 games) and won two division titles in those three seasons. Problem has not been the regular season as Price has been a huge part of their success the past three seasons. The problem has been in the playoffs where they lost in the second round this past season to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who I thought were much better than Montreal despite finishing behind them in the standings.
I thought Tampa was the best team in the East this season because of all their young star players that they drafted at the top of the draft (along with a few select players found elsewhere in the draft). Hopefully the Sabres will emulate that success with their top draft picks, namely Jack Eichel. Ok, Montreal did lose in six games to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2014, but the Rangers, who as great if not better goalie, had much better skilled players than Montreal and beat them. The Canadiens were upset in the first round to the seventh seeded Ottawa Senators in 2013.
The problem with the Canadiens is that they lack a lot of skilled forwards that can score on a consistent basis and need a couple of top-3 draft pick forwards that can be stars (as do a lot of teams). That's what wins in the NHL, top-3 picks. Max Pacioretty is their best forward as he scored 37 goals and 67 points. Tomas Plekanec is pretty good as is Brendan Gallagher. Alex Galchenyuk has not lived up to the hype since being drafted 3rd overall three years ago. He did have his first 20-goal season of his career, but has been moved from center to wing as he has not yet shown he can be a center. Their other source of offense comes from P.K. Subban, who scored 60 points and is usually up there with Erik Karlsson for most points scored by a defenseman.
Despite allowing the fewest goals (thanks to Price and Subban), the Canadiens were only 18th in goals scored and even worse, they were just 23rd in Corsi. You don't win Stanley Cups with that bad of a Corsi rating as teams that win the Cup rank near or at the top. They don't have enough skilled players to have a great Corsi nor maybe they're coach isn't good at it or maybe they rely way too much on Price and Subban. I think the answer is all of the above. Another reason I thought the Canadiens weren't that great of a team was because they struggled to beat bad teams, namely the Buffalo Sabres. The 30th place Sabres went 3-0-1 against them this season. That's awful.
The Canadiens really need to build a better team in front of Price. Sadly, they are in no position to be able to tank and finish near or at the bottom of the league and get high picks as they are usually very good in the regular season. Problem is they won't ever win the Cup nor contend for it in their current model. Yes they'll have 100-point seasons. Yes they'll have division titles. Yes they'll even win a playoff series or even get to a conference finals on the strength of Price. But they'll never win the Cup or even seriously contend in this form.
This is why I would hate to be the Canadiens right now because they're in no man's land. Boston, Philadelphia, and New Jersey are probably worse off than Montreal because Montreal will have great regular seasons. But the Canadiens are nowhere close to getting elite level forwards that you need to win the Cup or contend on a regular basis. They have the elite goalie and elite defenseman to win the Cup but not the forwards which is what you need to win the Cup as Cup winners have several top-3 picks in the draft.
Montreal is probably never going to tank or bottom out anytime soon and will continue to rely on Price to win them and bail them out of games. They'll have their great regular seasons but nothing to show for it. This reminds me of the Sabres teams from a few years ago with Ryan Miller where they won the division and made the playoffs but lost in the first round because they didn't have elite forwards. That's something I never want to be in ever again where we build around a goalie and can't win without that guy in net. I don't ever want that nor do I wish that on my enemies.
Thankfully, the Sabres won't have to rely on elite goalies as their best player is not a goalie. Yes we need a goalie but I want the elite level forwards and find the goalie instead of the other way around. One team that knows from experience how that never works is the Buffalo Sabres.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
I Would Trade Reinhart for O'Reilly; I Don't Need to Trade Reinhart but He's not Untouchable
Ryan O'Reilly is about out of Colorado and it would be great if the Sabres got him. He is a top-6 forward who could play either center on the wing. He is a two-way player who can score but play defense and shut down opponent's top lines. O'Reilly has one year left on his deal and it appears he'll be too rich for Colorado to sign.
The Avalanche have already given some of their high draft picks contract extensions in recent seasons (Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog) and the top pick of the 2013 NHL Draft Nathan MacKinnon's entry level deal is up after next season. They'll need to save some room for that. They already let Paul Stastny go in free agency last season and will likely let O'Reilly go, but not before his contract is up.
The asking price might be high to get O'Reilly out of Colorado. I don't think any team (including the Sabres) will trade for him unless they agree to a contract extension with O'Reilly first. It could mean at least this year's 21st overall pick and maybe next year's first along with prospects such as a defenseman and a forward. I know some have their heart set on giving up Jake McCabe but they'd want a top-3 either Zadorov or Pysyk. Obviously they'd want Ristolainen but he's untouchable. He's the only untouchable player on this team except Jack Eichel.
I bet many want the Sabres to deal Grigerenko even though he's an RFA because Patrick Roy was his junior coach. Do they want someone who is considered scrap? I bet they'd want someone like JT Compher, Hudson Fasching, and Justin Bailey. They might however want Sam Reinhart. Would you be ok and comfortable to trade Reinhart?
I definitely don't need Reinhart traded. I'd love to see how he'd do here in Buffalo. However, he's not untradable either. I'd definitely believe he'll be a very good player because he was drafted 2nd overall and players drafted at the top of the draft are usually good. I trust in the system. He may or may not be a star however. He'll definitely generate interest in a trade that's for sure.
There's a chance Reinhart can be better than O'Reilly but it's possible he'd end up just as good. That being 20-30 goals, 55-65 points, and being a very good two-way center either 2nd or even 3rd line of Girgensons is the 2nd line center. Of course if he's going to be as good as O'Reilly maybe just make the trade then for O'Reilly.
We kind of forget about Reinhart with the addition of Jack Eichel and we'll be good with or without Reinhart. Make no mistake I'm not advocating for him to be gone lthat's not what I'm saying. I'm saying if a trade makes this team better than explore that option and don't be afraid of him possibly being a star elsewhere. Tim Murray definitely does not worry about what anyone does elsewhere unlike Darcy Regier because he only cares about how this team does. If the other player turns out great than that's super. It's actually good to have deals help out other teams or else they won't want to deal with you.
O'Reilly's career high in goals and points are 28 and 64 in 2013-14. He also led the NHL in takeaways that season as well. He's great defensively and is a very good possession player. He also usually leads his team in ice time as well. It's amazing how great of a two-way possession player he is on one of the worst possession teams in hockey and one of the analytically challenged organizations in the NHL.
Does it scare you to possibly trade Reinhart, Zadorov, or Pysyk? It should but hockey trades for good players needs to include good players and players you aren't comfortable to part ways with. Even the Evander Kane deal might have had its share of detractors whether you hate trading Joel Armia or Brendan Lemieux or maybe even Tyler Myers if you were one of the ones who still had hope in him.
I remember people used to say "let's trade Ryan Miller for Patrick Kane or Ryan Getzlaf or Cory Parry" and I'd be like who else you want to give up because Miller alone won't do it. You'd have to trade Myers when he was at his best just to get the conversation started. Unlike video games, you can't trade your garbage you don't want for someone great, it doesn't work that way. You need to trade someone you don't necessarily want to part ways with. I'm just warning all you that it might include Reinhart or Zadorov.
But if you want to win now and improve the roster, you have to make tough decisions and Tim Murray is the man to make them. He won't always be right just a heads up but I think he'll be more right than wrong.
The Avalanche have already given some of their high draft picks contract extensions in recent seasons (Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog) and the top pick of the 2013 NHL Draft Nathan MacKinnon's entry level deal is up after next season. They'll need to save some room for that. They already let Paul Stastny go in free agency last season and will likely let O'Reilly go, but not before his contract is up.
The asking price might be high to get O'Reilly out of Colorado. I don't think any team (including the Sabres) will trade for him unless they agree to a contract extension with O'Reilly first. It could mean at least this year's 21st overall pick and maybe next year's first along with prospects such as a defenseman and a forward. I know some have their heart set on giving up Jake McCabe but they'd want a top-3 either Zadorov or Pysyk. Obviously they'd want Ristolainen but he's untouchable. He's the only untouchable player on this team except Jack Eichel.
I bet many want the Sabres to deal Grigerenko even though he's an RFA because Patrick Roy was his junior coach. Do they want someone who is considered scrap? I bet they'd want someone like JT Compher, Hudson Fasching, and Justin Bailey. They might however want Sam Reinhart. Would you be ok and comfortable to trade Reinhart?
I definitely don't need Reinhart traded. I'd love to see how he'd do here in Buffalo. However, he's not untradable either. I'd definitely believe he'll be a very good player because he was drafted 2nd overall and players drafted at the top of the draft are usually good. I trust in the system. He may or may not be a star however. He'll definitely generate interest in a trade that's for sure.
There's a chance Reinhart can be better than O'Reilly but it's possible he'd end up just as good. That being 20-30 goals, 55-65 points, and being a very good two-way center either 2nd or even 3rd line of Girgensons is the 2nd line center. Of course if he's going to be as good as O'Reilly maybe just make the trade then for O'Reilly.
We kind of forget about Reinhart with the addition of Jack Eichel and we'll be good with or without Reinhart. Make no mistake I'm not advocating for him to be gone lthat's not what I'm saying. I'm saying if a trade makes this team better than explore that option and don't be afraid of him possibly being a star elsewhere. Tim Murray definitely does not worry about what anyone does elsewhere unlike Darcy Regier because he only cares about how this team does. If the other player turns out great than that's super. It's actually good to have deals help out other teams or else they won't want to deal with you.
O'Reilly's career high in goals and points are 28 and 64 in 2013-14. He also led the NHL in takeaways that season as well. He's great defensively and is a very good possession player. He also usually leads his team in ice time as well. It's amazing how great of a two-way possession player he is on one of the worst possession teams in hockey and one of the analytically challenged organizations in the NHL.
Does it scare you to possibly trade Reinhart, Zadorov, or Pysyk? It should but hockey trades for good players needs to include good players and players you aren't comfortable to part ways with. Even the Evander Kane deal might have had its share of detractors whether you hate trading Joel Armia or Brendan Lemieux or maybe even Tyler Myers if you were one of the ones who still had hope in him.
I remember people used to say "let's trade Ryan Miller for Patrick Kane or Ryan Getzlaf or Cory Parry" and I'd be like who else you want to give up because Miller alone won't do it. You'd have to trade Myers when he was at his best just to get the conversation started. Unlike video games, you can't trade your garbage you don't want for someone great, it doesn't work that way. You need to trade someone you don't necessarily want to part ways with. I'm just warning all you that it might include Reinhart or Zadorov.
But if you want to win now and improve the roster, you have to make tough decisions and Tim Murray is the man to make them. He won't always be right just a heads up but I think he'll be more right than wrong.
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