Shocking Ted Black Out; Russ Brandon In as President of the Sabres

Much to the shock of myself, the Sabres announced they parted ways with team president Ted Black and replacing him with current Buffalo Bills President Russ Brandon. Brandon now is the President of both Buffalo pro sports teams. Why not? Both are owned by Terry and Kim Pegula and they must have loved the job Brandon did with the Bills, running the business side of that team for 18 years.

I know many around dislike Brandon and the job he's done with the Bills as evidenced by their 15 year playoff drought. Now Russ might be responsible a little bit but he's not totally to blame for terrible ownership running this team into the ground in Ralph's last decade and a half as owner with all due respect to Mr. Wilson. All Brandon did was run the business Mr. Wilson wanted it be run and he made the team very profitable. He gets credit albeit a little too much credit for selling this franchise and selling tickets to a team that's terrible.

The reason I say too much credit is because this is Buffalo and fans are Bills crazy and sadly there's not much else to do in late fall early winter then go to or watch Bills football on Sunday. I think I can sell the team to this fan base too. Try selling a fan base to Jacksonville or Tampa or Miami or San Diego where there's beautiful weather all year and more to do.

If the Toronto series did make the team more profitable to buy and keep the team here then fine it was a success. I think we can all no longer talk about Toronto. Many don't like or trust him for the Toronto series and neither do I to a point. As long as he's not running the hockey department, like he's no longer running the football department of the Bills, and simply just running the team as a business we'll be fine.

I did not like the job he did as President of the Bills when he replaced Ralph Wilson on January 1, 2013. He hired Doug Marrone after an "extensive coaching search" all of five days and then made sure he signed here over Cleveland by putting in an opt clause where he can leave three days after the season ended in a season in which an ownership change occurred. Why does he get such a deal for being a .500 coach in Syracuse? Russ dropped the ball on that one but thankfully to a point he did or else we wouldn't have Rex Ryan so half-thank you Russ.

He also did a pretty poor job as the Bills GM in 2008-09, but was he really that much worse than our past GMs? Was he so much worse than Marv Levy or Buddy Nix or Tom Donahoe? He did just as good as them while yes Aaron Maybin and James Hardy were awful, really awful.

But he did get Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd, and Stevie Johnson in his two drafts. So it's a wash just like other GMs some good picks, some bad picks, some awful picks. He did also sign Terrell Owens too. As you know my feelings on GMs no one is better or worse at picking a player it's all a crap shoot and everyone is 50-50 except for those who have a franchise QB.

One thing he did not do which could have made or break his GM career and that's draft a Quarterback. Trent Edwards was already on the roster and he didn't do anything to draft or get a QB in the offseason. His tenure could have been spectacular had he gotten the right QB or Edwards became the guy or it could have been a disaster where Donahoe, Levy, and Nix's tenure was.

Finding the right QB can make any GM look good and you don't have to be a "football guy." Sometimes being a football guy is even worse because you think you know all this crap while the entire draft and QB is nothing but a crap shoot.

It's a gamble and a coin flip. Those who get the coin flip right will be a GM for life and missing the coin flip means you will be fired. He wasn't great but not terrible, he was about the same maybe even slightly better than the other GMs during this playoff drought. All that matters really is who is your QB and any GM is amazing or terrible based on how good or bad the QB is.

One thing reportedly the Pegulas do like about Brandon and that helped make him the President of the Sabres. That was after the season ended and Marrone left, Brandon and Doug Whaley contacted various head coaching candidates and setup interviews as quickly as possible. That impressed both Terry and Kim Pegula, especially getting Rex Ryan in for an interview and the rest is history.

I don't know the whole detail behind Black's departure nor will I pretend like I know. Black did a great job every week coming on WGR 550 and listening to fans call in and voice their satisfaction or displeasure. Black was also good at taking emails and getting back to as many fans as he could, which was a lot. He made sure he handled fan emails about what to do at the arena and improve the team with a lot of respect. He cared a lot about the opinions of the fans and how to make the team and arena better.

Black was really good at letting season ticket holders know what their plan on rebuilding was by sending them a letter that detailed how important getting first round picks, really highly drafted first round picks were to success of teams around the NHL.

He detailed how much percentage of goals are scored by players drafted in the first two rounds, then by how big of a percentage were scored simply by first round picks, and then how much of a large percentage of goals scored in the NHL by players picked in the top-3-5 picks and why it was so important that the Sabres get to where they finished to get high draft picks. He also outlined the success of teams with a great amount of top-3 picks. I liked Ted Black and wish him the best in his future endeavors but I guess it's time to move on.

The Sabres, Bills, and mostly the Pegulas show they aren't thinking the past or or going old guard like a lot of teams even here in the past (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/lou-lamoriello-shockingly-new-toronto.html). They are full of fresh, new ideas which is what this area needs.

Bills QB Situation; If Accuracy is the Problem then I want the Most Athletic (EJ or Tyrod); Maybe Philip Rivers Could Be Available?

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the Bills might be close to the worst QB situation in the NFL (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-bills-might-not-have-worst-qb.html). It appears that nothing has nor will change. I even wrote my opinion (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/ej-struggled-because-of-marrone-sure.html) about this article about how Doug Marrone ruined E.J. Manuel (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515). I believe it's about 20-25% Marrone's fault, it's still mostly E.J.'s fault as he is inaccurate and you can't teach accuracy.

There is a three-way competition for the Bills' starting QB job. The longer the job is a competition the worst it is for the Bills. The Bills need one of the three to separate from the other two as soon as possible. Accuracy is a problem with each of these three QBs. With accuracy being a problem, I want the QB with the best possible running capabilities and that guy is Tyrod Taylor. Taylor has the best wheels of either of the three and has the least body of work as he just has 35 regular season passes so there is an uncertainty as to whether he is good or bad. Taylor also seems to be the QB that Rex Ryan loves, well loves that is currently on the roster because I'm sure the QB he loves is Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.

Manuel still intrigues me with just 14 regular season along with being a former 1st round pick and the possibility of Greg Roman maybe just maybe turing his game around. Look at what he did with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. I want nothing to do with Matt Cassel because he has too much of a body of work with little success outside of the 2008 and 2010 seasons. He's just another average, below average journeyman. I want Taylor or Manuel for their athleticism to make up for their deficiencies throwing the football. I mean if Cassel is the guy, fine I'll deal with it. I just won't be enthusiastic. Sadly, if this team misses the playoffs it's mainly because of the QB.

Now this does not mean much to the QB situation for this year but there is a development going on right now that can maybe help this team next year. It seems that Philip Rivers is showing little to no urgency to sign a contract extension with the San Diego Chargers (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/20/report-philip-rivers-showing-little-urgency-in-contract-talks/). Rivers does not want to sign a longterm deal to finish his career with the Chargers because of their uncertainty of remaining in San Diego and possibly moving to Los Angeles. Rivers does not want to move his family to Los Angeles and may just play out this season and become a free agent next year.

I am very interested in seeing the Rivers saga for obvious reasons. Now Rivers is 34 years old and next year, he'd hit the open market (assuming he doesn't re-up) at 35 years old. He might not be what he was a few years ago, but he still shows the ability that makes him one of the top-10 QBs currently in the game and an MVP candidate. After a couple of down seasons in 2011 and 2012, Rivers bounced back big time in 2013 and had a very good year last year, especially the first six games where he looked like the league MVP.

He did however struggle the final 10 games, going 4-6 after starting the season 5-1 and completing 69% of his passes, 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions, a 117.6 rating, and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. While he had some good games in the second half of the season against Oakland, St. Louis, Baltimore, and the second half against San Francisco, he looked bad against Denver and Kansas City twice, New England, and the worst being shut out against Miami. His final numbers were still respectable throwing for 4,286 yards, 31 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, and a 93.8 rating. Those aren't MVP numbers but on this team and with our problems at QB for years, those numbers would get Rivers a statue out front of Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Rivers is still good and would definitely be the best QB since Jim Kelly. Rivers is 88-56 as a starter, 32 games over .500 which means he needs to go 0-32 in order to be .500, and has thrown 252 touchdowns to only 122 interceptions. Those are very good career numbers. Rivers has only one losing season, that was 7-9 in 2012. He's been 8-8 or better each year while the Bills have been 8-8 or better just four times since 2000.

Thinking ahead to next year, I can't think of any team better suited than the Bills to make a run at Rivers in free agency, assuming he's there. Many teams have their QB in place while others will draft their guy instead of going after a 35-year-old. Plus Rivers will want his choice of the best team that could win the Super Bowl. Who would be better than the Bills with the talent on this team? This team is a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender with the talent on this roster. A QB like Rivers can take this team not only to the playoffs, but maybe to a playoff win or two or maybe even the Super Bowl. This would be like 2012 when Peyton Manning hit the open market and chose the Broncos with their talent over anyone else.

Besides watching the Bills and their QB dilemma I mean battle, we must keep our eye on the Rivers and Chargers contract saga. We can hope that he will not sign a new deal and hit the open market next year. If that's the case, I expect Terry Pegula to make a big run at him and he would choose us over any team needing a QB at that point with the talent on this team.

EJ Struggled Because of Marrone?! Sure A Little Bit But He Also Struggled on Other Downs as Well

I saw Howard Simon of WGR tweet this link out about how Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett as rookie head coach and offensive coordinator derailed E.J. Manuel's rookie season and beyond (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515). First off, it's a very long and wordy article. Second, it makes some sense but it gives too much if not almost all the blame squarely on the coaches.

The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.

Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.

The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.

I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:

"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone.  Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts.  Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.

In his press conferences after the game vs the Jets in week 3, Marrone insisted the trouble with the Bills was 3rd down performance.   He wasn't wrong -- the Bills were terrible on 3rd down.  But they were primarily terrible on 3rd and 7+ yds, where they converted just 6% into 1st downs so far that season.  On 3rd and 1-6 yds, the Bills converted 50% into 3rd down in 2013 to date, which was essentially the NFL average.  The key for the Bills was to keep 3rd down manageable.  Therefore, they needed to produce on 1st down.  So what happened on first downs for the Bills in 2013?"

I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.

Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.

Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.

The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.

If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.

I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.

Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.

I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.

I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.

I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.

EJ Could Be Cut If He Doesn't Show Progress; Move on From Him If You Don't Think He's the Guy

A lot of buzz has been made by former WGR 550 Buffalo Bills beat reporter and current Bills beat reporter for WKBW Ch. 7 Joe Buscaglia about EJ Manuel's future with the Bills (http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-sans-progress-ej-may-be-done-in-buffalo). It appears that the honeymoon with the 2013 first round pick and the supposed to be franchise QB is likely over unless he shows major improvement this summer from what has been a disappointing two-year stint. Manuel was drafted to be the franchise QB that this franchise has lacked since Jim Kelly retired in 1996 and so far it has not materialized.

It has been coined a "make or break year" for EJ, who will be battling for the starting job along with newcomers Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor. This new coaching staff has no ties to EJ Manuel and if they don't think he's the guy, he's likely gone. I think that's the right move if that's the case, there's no reason to keep him around if he can't beat out Cassel and/or Taylor. I think if he's not even the starter it might just be time to move on from him, let alone be the backup. Nothing against Cassel and Taylor but they aren't the best QBs in the league and they're here for a reason and if EJ can't beat them out, he'll never be the guy.

Of course Doug Whaley drafted him, well depending on who you ask some say it's Buddy Nix's pick but Whaley doesn't shy away from picking Manuel as it was a Buffalo Bills pick. Whaley I'm sure wants him to succeed and it makes him look a lot better. Some are ridiculous stating since this report came out that EJ is behind Jeff Tuel and is the 4th QB on the depth chart and that's just absolutely bogus. If for some reason he's behind Tuel, then cut him now.

I know Manuel has only 14 starts, which is still not a full 16-game season, but he's had two seasons worth of mini camps, OTAs, training camps, and preseasons and make it three after this summer. I don't think 14 starts is enough but I feel three seasons worth of all the above mentioned practices, preseason and regular season games is enough to tell you whether the guy is good or not and if he's improving or regressing.

It's not that Manuel was awful as he was just 6-8 as a starter (6-7 in games in which he finished after being injured against Cleveland his rookie year), but he continued to regress and show inaccuracy after coming back from injury in the middle of his rookie season. He missed six games due to injury his rookie season as he suffered three separate knee injuries (one was in preseason). His career completion percentage is just 58.6 and he averages 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which is in Trent Edwards territory.

Last season, the Bills traded the 2015 first round pick to move up five spots to draft Sammy Watkins in an attempt to add a big time weapon to help EJ. They basically gave EJ two years at starting QB with the Watkins trade. Manuel was pretty good the first two games of the season as they won the first two. He completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards an attempt, both were very good. Then Manuel struggled mightily the next two games in which he lost both of them. He was really bad against Houston as his signature moment was throwing a short pass right into JJ Watt's hands, who returned it for a touchdown.

Manuel was benched after that game for a guy who was retired and did not even go to training camp or play in the preseason in Kyle Orton. Orton was not much better except for both Jets games, a half against Detroit, and the 4th quarter against Minnesota. Otherwise he was awful as the team had trouble getting into the end zone. Orton was basically the same as his yards per attempt was basically the same, but he completed 10% more of his passes, big deal considering most of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage.

It was sad that the last month or two, Doug Marrone did not bench Orton and put Manuel back in. Now some of that was Marrone being selfish and wanting to win for his own glory to take a buyout and leave after the season to try and get another head coaching job. The other was that sadly, Orton was the "best chance to win." If you couldn't pull an awful Orton for a young first round pick prospect to see what he's done being on the bench, then it doesn't speak very highly for Manuel. It was sad that Manuel was benched for Orton in the first place.

I'd like to see what Manuel can do in Greg Roman's offense. Roman got a lot out of Alex Smith when no one could. Smith is definitely limited but Roman got the most out of him. Then he got a lot out of Colin Kaepernick in terms of throwing the ball down field and especially running for a year-and-a-half until he completely struggled last year. Kaepernick was inaccurate and has always struggled with accuracy issues. But when he throws the ball down the field, he can surely fling it with ease and can make big plays down the field whereas EJ could not. Of course Kaepernick's big time strength was his running ability and can make so many plays with his legs.

I'd like to see Manuel be able to run more as that's supposed to be a strength of his. That's one of the reasons why the Bills drafted him two years ago. He's not the fastest nor most mobile but he can more than make enough plays with his legs. He got injured as a rookie against Cleveland on a spectacular run and Marrone was very cautious to have him run. I don't 100% blame him because you don't want your young QB to get hurt.

The problem was that they never wanted Manuel to run ever, which was a strength of his. When he did run, it was usually just run out of bounds or slide even if it was short of the first down marker because "a punt is better than a turnover" and did not want him to risk injury. Marrone was super conservative. It was definitely Marrone not wanting him to run but when Manuel did run, he would never try and make any sort of move to have a defender miss to pick up a couple of yards and a first down. Get the first down and then slide or run out of bounds.

Marrone and Nate Hackett brought in the Read Option with Manuel's mobility as well as the no huddle and I was super excited. For some reason, they never ran the read option with Manuel running or throwing. Instead, Manuel would just hand the ball off in shot gun to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson and getting destroyed for losses. Never did Manuel just take off running after faking a hand off or threw from the read option which is what QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, RGIII, and even Ryan Tannehill do as they both run and throw to some success. Oh yeah, they scrapped the no huddle as well as injuries and EJ's poor development led to them throwing no huddle out of the playbook.

I did not want the kid to get hurt but if he wasn't going to be play the game right or the way he is capable of playing, then I did not need him in there whatsoever. I'd love to see Rex and Roman let the kid run and try to throw down the field and try to make some plays. Ryan usually let Geno Smith throw down field and Smith would not just run out of bounds when he ran as he would make a move and get the first down. Smith was terrible but Ryan at least let him try to make plays and see if he can play the position or not. I wouldn't mind letting them let Tyrod Taylor loose as they seemed enamored with him and his play making ability.

EJ has a strong arm but he was not accurate down the field. In fact, too many times he'd throw deep passes out of bounds and never kept balls in play for a chance for the receiver to make a play and/or a draw a defensive penalty. Manuel was so inaccurate especially throwing short. He completed only 61% of his passes from 1-10 yards which is very bad. Usually great QBs even decent QBs can complete 1-10 yard passes in the 70% range.

If Manuel can't improve his accuracy the next couple of months, he won't just be on the bench he'll be in the unemployment line. Now Roman can try and improve his accuracy somewhat, but accuracy is something you can't teach and you usually are what you are. I like Manuel he seems like a great person but if he's not the guy then it's time to move on. I just want Ryan and Roman to let him at least try and make plays and if he can't then cut him loose and let's go with Cassel or Taylor.