Today was the deadline for Russell Wilson to negotiate a new deal beyond this season or else he was going to play out his last year. In the 11th hour, Wilson and the Seahawks agreed on a four-year, $87.6 million contract with $30 million up automatically up front and $60 total is guaranteed. Wilson did not get his $25 million a year he originally wanted but did get just under the $22 million Aaron Rodgers got.
He is not worth as much if not more than Rodgers or one of the top 3-5 QBs in the NFL. However, he is still a good, top 8-10 QB in this league and in a quarterback driven league starved with a franchise QB, you have to pay and overpay for one of the top-10 Qbs in the league. Wilson might not be worth it in the eyes of many especially because of the "Legion of Boom" defense and Marshawn Lynch. Two things, one the Seahawks think he's worth it and two, who will you get that's better?
Can you get Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Brees, Manning, or Roethlisberger? I didn't think so and those guys are the ones that are an upgrade over Wilson. Guys like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, are maybe slightly better or about the same. Point is 20% of the league has guys better than Wilson while another 10-15% have as good of a QB as him. A little more than 2/3 of the teams in the NFL are worse off than Seattle having Russell Wilson. That's why ladies and gentlemen he's making as much money as he does.
He has won a Super Bowl and been to another and would have won two had Pete Carroll ran Lynch instead of throwing it, can you believe that? Regardless, Wilson has two Super Bowl appearances in his first three years in the league. I can't think of any QB that has done that in league history. Tom Brady has been to two Super Bowls in his first three seasons as a starter but it was his fourth season. Same with Kurt Warner in two of his first three years as a starting QB but he bounced around the league a year or two before.
Whether you think Wilson or Joe Flacco or Eli Manning are great or not, they've won Super Bowls and you get rewarded for being a Super Bowl winning quarterback even if your not the best or one of the top-5. Also, you don't want to be a team that is looking for a franchise Quarterback. As a Bills fan, I can tell you it sucks to be still searching for a QB as we have since Jim Kelly retired two decades ago.
I wish we can have a guy like Wilson or Flacco or Eli where many experts say he's not the best and we have to overpay, but we still win games and even a Super Bowl. Hell, I'd be excited if we had a Tony Romo. Seattle, trust me you don't want that it's good you paid the man even if it's a lot more than you want to pay. I am not that greedy. Yes I want Rodgers or Luck but I'd "settle" for a Wilson or Flacco or Romo or Rivers. I'd even go Matt Stafford or Cam Newton.
Wilson will always not be given a lot of credit by many because of the fact Lynch is a great runner and the fact their defense is the best in the league. Wilson doesn't throw it a ton so he doesn't put up eye popping fantasy stats like Rodgers, Brees, or Manning. Seattle has been 32nd, 31st, and 32nd in pass attempts in Wilson's three seasons, but first, second, and first in rushing attempts so obviously they run more than they throw thanks to the fact they have Lynch and that Wilson is a great runner too.
But if you look at some of Wilson's passing numbers for as few attempts as he gets, it's actually pretty amazing. He completes nearly 2/3 of his passes with an overall passer rating of 98.6. It gets even better as his total yards per pass attempt is 7.9 and has thrown 72 touchdowns to just 26 interceptions, almost a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his career. That is amazing considering he doesn't have many weapons as a wide receiver or tight end to throw to.
Even when Wilson struggles, like last year's NFC Championship Game win over Green Bay, he plays well in the 4th quarter and overtime as he saves his best for last. Even in the second half of the season, he's better as his QB Ratings in the months of November, December, and January/February (playoffs/Super Bowl) are 108.3, 100.7, and 97.8, respectively.
To show Wilson's value to the team, Pete Carroll was about to be fired three years ago when Wilson won the starting job as a rookie as he had back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Since then, the Seahawks are 36-12 (42-14 if you count playoffs including a Super Bowl win) with Wilson starting. For those that think the defense is the reason they win, you are somewhat right but don't forget, they were 14-18 the two seasons before Wilson got there with Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, and Tavaris Jackson starting at QB with an elite defense.
Even Lynch had been there before Wilson, but his best seasons in terms or rushing yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns have all been there with Wilson starting as Wilson is a threat to throw or run. Teams just don't have to focus on stopping Lynch, which isn't easy by the way, and have to worry about Wilson.
The QB ultimately matters the most of any position on the field. We shall see however if Wilson can still be as successful with a defense that will be losing players in the future thanks to the salary cap and Lynch as well. We will wait and see and if Wilson struggles without an elite defense and Lynch, I'll stand corrected. Until then, I think highly of Wilson and value him a lot more than others.
In other news, New York Jets stud defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson has been busted for resisting arrest for an incident of a high speed road race.. It's not just high (no pun intended) speeding it's over 140 mph. 140 mph and it's not on a race track rather our beloved public streets. If that's not enough, all the passengers in the car allegedly were high and there was a loaded hand gun in the car.
If Dareus got one game for his drag racing along with marijuana charges, what's Richardson going to get for going close to three times the speed limit on the fastest roads in America between 55-65 mph, assuming he did they on a thruway or an unpopulated country back road. Don't forget, Richardson is already suspended for the first four games this season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. He apparently was arrested for this incident on July 14, two weeks after the suspension was handed down. He never let the Jets know he was arrested.
How does he treat being suspended for drug use? By going Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. rolled into one but they don't smoke chronic nor have loaded hand guns in their car. If Richardson wants a year vacation, he might end up getting it because I could see this being a year-long, maybe half a season long suspension. It doesn't look good for Richardson.
It goes to show you the offseason is too damn long as Richardson's racing incident (even Dareus' racing incident a year ago), Wilson's on-going contract talks, Brady's possible suspension, Ronald Darby's tweets, Aaron Kromer's hitting a kid (allegedly), heck even LeSean McCoy's famous or infamous party invite are demonstrations as to the league having way too long of an offseason and football can't start soon enough.
Showing posts with label Russell Wilson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russell Wilson. Show all posts
Friday, July 31, 2015
Thursday, July 16, 2015
EJ Struggled Because of Marrone?! Sure A Little Bit But He Also Struggled on Other Downs as Well
I saw Howard Simon of WGR tweet this link out about how Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett as rookie head coach and offensive coordinator derailed E.J. Manuel's rookie season and beyond (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515). First off, it's a very long and wordy article. Second, it makes some sense but it gives too much if not almost all the blame squarely on the coaches.
The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.
Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.
The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.
I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:
"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone. Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts. Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.
I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.
Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.
Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.
The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.
If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.
I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.
Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.
I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.
I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.
I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.
The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.
Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.
The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.
I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:
"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone. Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts. Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.
In his press conferences after the game vs the Jets in week 3, Marrone insisted the trouble with the Bills was 3rd down performance. He wasn't wrong -- the Bills were terrible on 3rd down. But they were primarily terrible on 3rd and 7+ yds, where they converted just 6% into 1st downs so far that season. On 3rd and 1-6 yds, the Bills converted 50% into 3rd down in 2013 to date, which was essentially the NFL average. The key for the Bills was to keep 3rd down manageable. Therefore, they needed to produce on 1st down. So what happened on first downs for the Bills in 2013?"
I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.
Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.
Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.
The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.
If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.
I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.
Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.
I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.
I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.
I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.
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