Today was the deadline for Russell Wilson to negotiate a new deal beyond this season or else he was going to play out his last year. In the 11th hour, Wilson and the Seahawks agreed on a four-year, $87.6 million contract with $30 million up automatically up front and $60 total is guaranteed. Wilson did not get his $25 million a year he originally wanted but did get just under the $22 million Aaron Rodgers got.
He is not worth as much if not more than Rodgers or one of the top 3-5 QBs in the NFL. However, he is still a good, top 8-10 QB in this league and in a quarterback driven league starved with a franchise QB, you have to pay and overpay for one of the top-10 Qbs in the league. Wilson might not be worth it in the eyes of many especially because of the "Legion of Boom" defense and Marshawn Lynch. Two things, one the Seahawks think he's worth it and two, who will you get that's better?
Can you get Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Brees, Manning, or Roethlisberger? I didn't think so and those guys are the ones that are an upgrade over Wilson. Guys like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, are maybe slightly better or about the same. Point is 20% of the league has guys better than Wilson while another 10-15% have as good of a QB as him. A little more than 2/3 of the teams in the NFL are worse off than Seattle having Russell Wilson. That's why ladies and gentlemen he's making as much money as he does.
He has won a Super Bowl and been to another and would have won two had Pete Carroll ran Lynch instead of throwing it, can you believe that? Regardless, Wilson has two Super Bowl appearances in his first three years in the league. I can't think of any QB that has done that in league history. Tom Brady has been to two Super Bowls in his first three seasons as a starter but it was his fourth season. Same with Kurt Warner in two of his first three years as a starting QB but he bounced around the league a year or two before.
Whether you think Wilson or Joe Flacco or Eli Manning are great or not, they've won Super Bowls and you get rewarded for being a Super Bowl winning quarterback even if your not the best or one of the top-5. Also, you don't want to be a team that is looking for a franchise Quarterback. As a Bills fan, I can tell you it sucks to be still searching for a QB as we have since Jim Kelly retired two decades ago.
I wish we can have a guy like Wilson or Flacco or Eli where many experts say he's not the best and we have to overpay, but we still win games and even a Super Bowl. Hell, I'd be excited if we had a Tony Romo. Seattle, trust me you don't want that it's good you paid the man even if it's a lot more than you want to pay. I am not that greedy. Yes I want Rodgers or Luck but I'd "settle" for a Wilson or Flacco or Romo or Rivers. I'd even go Matt Stafford or Cam Newton.
Wilson will always not be given a lot of credit by many because of the fact Lynch is a great runner and the fact their defense is the best in the league. Wilson doesn't throw it a ton so he doesn't put up eye popping fantasy stats like Rodgers, Brees, or Manning. Seattle has been 32nd, 31st, and 32nd in pass attempts in Wilson's three seasons, but first, second, and first in rushing attempts so obviously they run more than they throw thanks to the fact they have Lynch and that Wilson is a great runner too.
But if you look at some of Wilson's passing numbers for as few attempts as he gets, it's actually pretty amazing. He completes nearly 2/3 of his passes with an overall passer rating of 98.6. It gets even better as his total yards per pass attempt is 7.9 and has thrown 72 touchdowns to just 26 interceptions, almost a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his career. That is amazing considering he doesn't have many weapons as a wide receiver or tight end to throw to.
Even when Wilson struggles, like last year's NFC Championship Game win over Green Bay, he plays well in the 4th quarter and overtime as he saves his best for last. Even in the second half of the season, he's better as his QB Ratings in the months of November, December, and January/February (playoffs/Super Bowl) are 108.3, 100.7, and 97.8, respectively.
To show Wilson's value to the team, Pete Carroll was about to be fired three years ago when Wilson won the starting job as a rookie as he had back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Since then, the Seahawks are 36-12 (42-14 if you count playoffs including a Super Bowl win) with Wilson starting. For those that think the defense is the reason they win, you are somewhat right but don't forget, they were 14-18 the two seasons before Wilson got there with Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, and Tavaris Jackson starting at QB with an elite defense.
Even Lynch had been there before Wilson, but his best seasons in terms or rushing yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns have all been there with Wilson starting as Wilson is a threat to throw or run. Teams just don't have to focus on stopping Lynch, which isn't easy by the way, and have to worry about Wilson.
The QB ultimately matters the most of any position on the field. We shall see however if Wilson can still be as successful with a defense that will be losing players in the future thanks to the salary cap and Lynch as well. We will wait and see and if Wilson struggles without an elite defense and Lynch, I'll stand corrected. Until then, I think highly of Wilson and value him a lot more than others.
In other news, New York Jets stud defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson has been busted for resisting arrest for an incident of a high speed road race.. It's not just high (no pun intended) speeding it's over 140 mph. 140 mph and it's not on a race track rather our beloved public streets. If that's not enough, all the passengers in the car allegedly were high and there was a loaded hand gun in the car.
If Dareus got one game for his drag racing along with marijuana charges, what's Richardson going to get for going close to three times the speed limit on the fastest roads in America between 55-65 mph, assuming he did they on a thruway or an unpopulated country back road. Don't forget, Richardson is already suspended for the first four games this season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. He apparently was arrested for this incident on July 14, two weeks after the suspension was handed down. He never let the Jets know he was arrested.
How does he treat being suspended for drug use? By going Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. rolled into one but they don't smoke chronic nor have loaded hand guns in their car. If Richardson wants a year vacation, he might end up getting it because I could see this being a year-long, maybe half a season long suspension. It doesn't look good for Richardson.
It goes to show you the offseason is too damn long as Richardson's racing incident (even Dareus' racing incident a year ago), Wilson's on-going contract talks, Brady's possible suspension, Ronald Darby's tweets, Aaron Kromer's hitting a kid (allegedly), heck even LeSean McCoy's famous or infamous party invite are demonstrations as to the league having way too long of an offseason and football can't start soon enough.
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Friday, July 31, 2015
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Which QB Would You Trade Dareus for?
Marcell Dareus is currently working on a contract extension with the Buffalo Bills (http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/bills-marcell-dareus-talking-contract-extention-dt-focused-on-football-072415).
He is in the final year of his contract as the Bills picked up his fifth year option for this year. Dareus is expected to make somewhere between the six year $95 million deal Gerald McCoy got and the $114 million deal for six years Ndamukong Suh signed this offseason with Miami with roughly between $55-60 million guaranteed.
He's up there with Suh and McCoy for best defensive tackles in the league. He's better than McCoy and is on par with Suh. In fact, Dareus has 28.5 sacks in his first four years compared to 27.5 for Suh in his first four years and McCoy had just 18.5. Hall of famer and one of the best defensive tackles to ever play the game, Warren Sapp, had 29.5 sacks his first 4 years in the league. So you can tell how great Dareus is.
The Bills are expected to have a great defense like they've had the last two seasons and it should be even greater with Rex Ryan taking over. The defense could be number one overall this season with a healthy Dareus (who will be suspended for the opener for violating the league's substance abuse policy).
It got me thinking however as to how good will the defense be if Dareus wasn't on the roster? I'm thinking what do the Bills need more than Dareus and the number one ranked defense? Shouldn't be a surprise as the answer is quarterback.
Dareus is the best player on this defense but it will be tough to have two $100 million men on the defense (although I expect them to restructure Mario Williams). I still think the defense would be more than capable without Dareus. Isn't that one of the reasons you hired Rex in the first place to run the defense?
He should be able to make this a top-10, maybe even top-5. I know you can't just get rid of everyone and give him garbage and say ok Rex make this the number one defense in the league. I get that. But he needs a QB badly as he can do whatever on the defense even if it were missing their top players while the QB can also help overcome the loss of a really talented football player. That's the whole point of this exercise to figure out how much Dareus is worth in terms of QB.
I doubt that the Bills could trade Dareus for a qb because who would trade a great QB for a defensive player, no matter how great that defensive player and one who's contract is about to expire after this season? To get one of the top QBs you'd have to trade an entire defense, which they would say no to. But let's pretend we can trade Dareus for any QB in the league. In that case, who do you want?
I'll use this Mike Sando ESPN article (http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348) where he ranks QBs in tiers 1, 2, 3, and 4. I'll list QBs and see how far we will go to trade Dareus for a QB.
Let's make this one quick, tier 1 (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees). We can all agree we'd trade Dareus for anyone of these, even Manning who's on his way out but still can get you into the playoffs as a top seed regardless of whether or not he can still win a Super Bowl or not.
Manning might be the only one in this list I might say no because he's a bit on the decline but I'll still say yes as I'll take even one-two seasons like last: 4,724 yard, 39 touchdowns, 7.9 yards per attempt, and 101.5 QB Rating. Give this team with this talent those numbers and you're in contention for the Super Bowl.
Tier 2 (Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Cam Newton). Now you can debate some guys on this list more than others but for me, I need a QB badly and I'd even trade Dareus for anyone on this list because while these guys need might need some more help to win games than tier 1, they are still so much better than what the Bills currently have or have had since Jim Kelly.
There are more I'd rather have than others. I'd really like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, and especially Ryan, who I think is very good and I am a huge fan despite the lack of love for him around the league. Flacco doesn't put up eye popping numbers in the regular season, but man when it comes to the playoffs he's money, the complete opposite of Peyton Manning.
Peyton's brother Eli is a lot like Flacco but lately has struggled badly in the regular season whereas Flacco still gets the team into the playoffs. Manning did have a bounce back year last year thanks to a new offensive coordinator and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr.
Both Rivers and Eli are entering the final year of their contracts as I would expect both the Chargers and Giants to be working out contract extensions for both as both are in talks about new contracts. However, if one if not both are prepared to move (which I doubt but let's see) on from them, then Dareus could definitely be in play and I'd be willing to get one of the two, preferably Rivers.
Wilson is similar as well where he won't wow you and needs the defense and Marshawn Lynch to help but he makes big plays in big moments when it matters the most. He plays his best ball in November, December and January, where his QB Rating is over 100 combined. Even September and October his QB Rating is in the mid 90s as his career rating is 98.6.
He puts up much better numbers than people give him credit for because of Lynch and the defense, but he doesn't have elite weapons to throw to either and he puts up decent numbers regardless. He won't necessarily win a game on his own, or at least we don't know that until they lose some players because he will get a ton of money. Only time will tell. But he's not garbage either although I am sick of hearing about his contract.
Stafford is good, not elite but good much better than anything the Bills have. Stafford does have Megatron but he doesn't also just have Megatron. He had a 5,000 yard, 41 touchdown season in 2011 and last time I checked, Megatron did not catch all 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.
He's had close to 5,000 yard seasons a couple of times since, but his TD numbers declined. His overall numbers declined last year, but they had a great defense and had injuries to Megatron, which affected him. Stafford also makes a lot of mistakes and turns the ball over, but he's a gun slinger.
Newton also makes some mistakes and can be inaccurate at times. Much like Wilson, he can run very well and needs a good defense and running game. Last year, he did help the Panthers win the division with the top 4-5 receivers from the previous year's team gone and has a terrible coach and front office and offensive line.
These guys can't win games on their own without a little help, but the help is here in Buffalo. I am still pretty high on Newton and am a big Newton fan. No offense Dareus, I wish the Bills lost two more games in 2010 so we could have the #1 overall pick and drafted Newton instead. Dareus is great but the QB is more important.
Now we're on to tier 3 and I wouldn't trade Dareus for any of these QBs and tier 4, yeah no thanks. You couldn't trade them to us for nothing. Ok exceptions of course being Carson Palmer if he's healthy he's still really good. Palmer was 6-0 as the starter until he was injured and is 13-2 in his last 15 starts over the last two years. If he's healthy, then yes I'll trade Dareus for him as I still think Palmer is very good. I'd gamble anyway.
Andy Dalton might be of some interest but to me I feel a lot is the talent around him. He's not bad although he had a down year last but two years ago he threw 33 touchdowns. I still think he's pretty good but most of it his team surrounding him that probably makes him better than he is. I'd say at this point no thanks.
I'd consider trading Dareus for Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, or Marcus Mariota despite them being rookies or second-year players because I think they are all possible franchise QBs. I'd consider trading Dareus for a package to move up for either Winston or Mariota this year if they were available which neither Tampa nor Tennessee would trade them.
I'd say no right now on Blake Bortles as he needs a lot of work to show he can be a franchise QB. He does play on one of if not the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville and that could be a reason for the struggles. Of course he's shown me very little at this point to make this trade and consider him a franchise QB. Of course we'll see over time what comes of this. No to Johnny Manziel btw.
This isn't I want Dareus traded, it's I'd only trade him for a top notch QB, even a "tier 2" QB that could take this team to the playoffs with a 11-5, 12-4 record. Dareus isn't worth trading unless it's a top-10, 12 QB in the NFL, that's it.
Nothing else, no lineman, no running back, no receiver, no tight end, nor draft pick (unless it's a top-5 pick for a potential QB) is worth it. Dareus is worth a big time QB so let's get this deal done as no QB will be available.
I must explain about Brady and Peyton Manning some more. I would trade for Brady and Manning, or should I say the caliber of them in their best days, not so much now because they're going to be 38 and 39 years old.
Despite Brady being an arrogant douchebag and a jackass, I still would take him in his prime or even right now as he's still really good. Manning is a shell of his former self but I'd trade for the Manning even two years ago where had a record-breaking season.
As long as I got a few good years from them, then sure I'd risk trading a star like Dareus. Otherwise, I'd stick with Dareus.
He is in the final year of his contract as the Bills picked up his fifth year option for this year. Dareus is expected to make somewhere between the six year $95 million deal Gerald McCoy got and the $114 million deal for six years Ndamukong Suh signed this offseason with Miami with roughly between $55-60 million guaranteed.
He's up there with Suh and McCoy for best defensive tackles in the league. He's better than McCoy and is on par with Suh. In fact, Dareus has 28.5 sacks in his first four years compared to 27.5 for Suh in his first four years and McCoy had just 18.5. Hall of famer and one of the best defensive tackles to ever play the game, Warren Sapp, had 29.5 sacks his first 4 years in the league. So you can tell how great Dareus is.
The Bills are expected to have a great defense like they've had the last two seasons and it should be even greater with Rex Ryan taking over. The defense could be number one overall this season with a healthy Dareus (who will be suspended for the opener for violating the league's substance abuse policy).
It got me thinking however as to how good will the defense be if Dareus wasn't on the roster? I'm thinking what do the Bills need more than Dareus and the number one ranked defense? Shouldn't be a surprise as the answer is quarterback.
Dareus is the best player on this defense but it will be tough to have two $100 million men on the defense (although I expect them to restructure Mario Williams). I still think the defense would be more than capable without Dareus. Isn't that one of the reasons you hired Rex in the first place to run the defense?
He should be able to make this a top-10, maybe even top-5. I know you can't just get rid of everyone and give him garbage and say ok Rex make this the number one defense in the league. I get that. But he needs a QB badly as he can do whatever on the defense even if it were missing their top players while the QB can also help overcome the loss of a really talented football player. That's the whole point of this exercise to figure out how much Dareus is worth in terms of QB.
I doubt that the Bills could trade Dareus for a qb because who would trade a great QB for a defensive player, no matter how great that defensive player and one who's contract is about to expire after this season? To get one of the top QBs you'd have to trade an entire defense, which they would say no to. But let's pretend we can trade Dareus for any QB in the league. In that case, who do you want?
I'll use this Mike Sando ESPN article (http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348) where he ranks QBs in tiers 1, 2, 3, and 4. I'll list QBs and see how far we will go to trade Dareus for a QB.
Let's make this one quick, tier 1 (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees). We can all agree we'd trade Dareus for anyone of these, even Manning who's on his way out but still can get you into the playoffs as a top seed regardless of whether or not he can still win a Super Bowl or not.
Manning might be the only one in this list I might say no because he's a bit on the decline but I'll still say yes as I'll take even one-two seasons like last: 4,724 yard, 39 touchdowns, 7.9 yards per attempt, and 101.5 QB Rating. Give this team with this talent those numbers and you're in contention for the Super Bowl.
Tier 2 (Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Cam Newton). Now you can debate some guys on this list more than others but for me, I need a QB badly and I'd even trade Dareus for anyone on this list because while these guys need might need some more help to win games than tier 1, they are still so much better than what the Bills currently have or have had since Jim Kelly.
There are more I'd rather have than others. I'd really like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, and especially Ryan, who I think is very good and I am a huge fan despite the lack of love for him around the league. Flacco doesn't put up eye popping numbers in the regular season, but man when it comes to the playoffs he's money, the complete opposite of Peyton Manning.
Peyton's brother Eli is a lot like Flacco but lately has struggled badly in the regular season whereas Flacco still gets the team into the playoffs. Manning did have a bounce back year last year thanks to a new offensive coordinator and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr.
Both Rivers and Eli are entering the final year of their contracts as I would expect both the Chargers and Giants to be working out contract extensions for both as both are in talks about new contracts. However, if one if not both are prepared to move (which I doubt but let's see) on from them, then Dareus could definitely be in play and I'd be willing to get one of the two, preferably Rivers.
Wilson is similar as well where he won't wow you and needs the defense and Marshawn Lynch to help but he makes big plays in big moments when it matters the most. He plays his best ball in November, December and January, where his QB Rating is over 100 combined. Even September and October his QB Rating is in the mid 90s as his career rating is 98.6.
He puts up much better numbers than people give him credit for because of Lynch and the defense, but he doesn't have elite weapons to throw to either and he puts up decent numbers regardless. He won't necessarily win a game on his own, or at least we don't know that until they lose some players because he will get a ton of money. Only time will tell. But he's not garbage either although I am sick of hearing about his contract.
Stafford is good, not elite but good much better than anything the Bills have. Stafford does have Megatron but he doesn't also just have Megatron. He had a 5,000 yard, 41 touchdown season in 2011 and last time I checked, Megatron did not catch all 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.
He's had close to 5,000 yard seasons a couple of times since, but his TD numbers declined. His overall numbers declined last year, but they had a great defense and had injuries to Megatron, which affected him. Stafford also makes a lot of mistakes and turns the ball over, but he's a gun slinger.
Newton also makes some mistakes and can be inaccurate at times. Much like Wilson, he can run very well and needs a good defense and running game. Last year, he did help the Panthers win the division with the top 4-5 receivers from the previous year's team gone and has a terrible coach and front office and offensive line.
These guys can't win games on their own without a little help, but the help is here in Buffalo. I am still pretty high on Newton and am a big Newton fan. No offense Dareus, I wish the Bills lost two more games in 2010 so we could have the #1 overall pick and drafted Newton instead. Dareus is great but the QB is more important.
Now we're on to tier 3 and I wouldn't trade Dareus for any of these QBs and tier 4, yeah no thanks. You couldn't trade them to us for nothing. Ok exceptions of course being Carson Palmer if he's healthy he's still really good. Palmer was 6-0 as the starter until he was injured and is 13-2 in his last 15 starts over the last two years. If he's healthy, then yes I'll trade Dareus for him as I still think Palmer is very good. I'd gamble anyway.
Andy Dalton might be of some interest but to me I feel a lot is the talent around him. He's not bad although he had a down year last but two years ago he threw 33 touchdowns. I still think he's pretty good but most of it his team surrounding him that probably makes him better than he is. I'd say at this point no thanks.
I'd consider trading Dareus for Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, or Marcus Mariota despite them being rookies or second-year players because I think they are all possible franchise QBs. I'd consider trading Dareus for a package to move up for either Winston or Mariota this year if they were available which neither Tampa nor Tennessee would trade them.
I'd say no right now on Blake Bortles as he needs a lot of work to show he can be a franchise QB. He does play on one of if not the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville and that could be a reason for the struggles. Of course he's shown me very little at this point to make this trade and consider him a franchise QB. Of course we'll see over time what comes of this. No to Johnny Manziel btw.
This isn't I want Dareus traded, it's I'd only trade him for a top notch QB, even a "tier 2" QB that could take this team to the playoffs with a 11-5, 12-4 record. Dareus isn't worth trading unless it's a top-10, 12 QB in the NFL, that's it.
Nothing else, no lineman, no running back, no receiver, no tight end, nor draft pick (unless it's a top-5 pick for a potential QB) is worth it. Dareus is worth a big time QB so let's get this deal done as no QB will be available.
I must explain about Brady and Peyton Manning some more. I would trade for Brady and Manning, or should I say the caliber of them in their best days, not so much now because they're going to be 38 and 39 years old.
Despite Brady being an arrogant douchebag and a jackass, I still would take him in his prime or even right now as he's still really good. Manning is a shell of his former self but I'd trade for the Manning even two years ago where had a record-breaking season.
As long as I got a few good years from them, then sure I'd risk trading a star like Dareus. Otherwise, I'd stick with Dareus.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round Since 2004
Generally there has been a myth that you should not take a quarterback high or in the first round because if you miss on it, it will set your franchise back for many years. That has been true because first round quarterbacks in years past was a little something of a crapshoot. Its been a 50-50 success-bust ratio, maybe 51-49. But since 2004 when the rules changed to make the game more in favor of quarterbacks, the success rate has jumped up exponentially. Between 2004 and 2010, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Out of those 19, 15 have been either elite or serviceable. 4 have been busts which translates to nearly 80% success rate, which means 4 out of every 5 quarterbacks taken in the first round are successes. Before that, it was about 50-50. 80% is outstanding when it comes to selecting the game's most important position. Success rates of quarterbacks drafted each round after shrinks significantly. Check out my last blog about QBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html)
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Why the Redskins Traded Up for RG3
Why wouldn't they is the question? The Redskins need a franchise QB so bad that this move made a heck of a lot of sense. Sure, trading three first round picks and a 2nd round pick seems like a lot, but when it comes to trading up for a franchise QB especially one with the talent and ability of Baylor's Robert Griffin III, it makes total sense. Consider the fact that teams no longer have to shell out $50 million guaranteed for a guy who never played a snap in the NFL and it's even more likely for teams to gamble and trade up. It's a no-brainer. There are very few times a team can trade up to #1 or #2 and take one of the top-2 QBs in the draft because generally teams drafting in that spot will almost always take the QB. In this instance, St. Louis traded down because they still have a young QB they took #1 two years ago in Sam Bradford. Jeff Fisher wants to see if they young QB can play after a down sophomore year as well as grab 3 firsts and a second.
If you are bothered by the Redskins trading 3 first round picks, the reality is that they are swapping this year's first (6th overall) with the Rams' first. Hopefully for the Redskins, they won't have to be drafting too high in the next couple of years and they figure they won't with the addition of Griffin. Griffin has all the tools and ability to be a starting QB in this league and be a good one. Some even think Griffin could go #1 ahead of Andrew Luck, but more likely he will go #2. Griffin is fast and can throw on the run. He has a strong arm and can make many of the throws. If you look at Griffin's number or even watch him play at Baylor, you see a QB that throws the ball down the field and is not a check down quarterback. He is also very smart as he would be going to Law School if he weren't going into the NFL. Griffin can make a huge impact much like Cam Newton did for Carolina last year. Newton only had a couple of months to learn the playbook as he missed time in OTA's and Mini Camps during the NFL Lockout and look what he did breaking many of Peyton Manning's rookie records. What would Griffin do with more time to get accustomed to the playbook and learn the offense? He seems to be the ideal candidate in Mike Shanahan's offense that has really struggled the last two years with Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and John Beck under center.
Speaking of Shanahan and his struggles, he needed to make this deal as he is in his 3rd and could very well be his final year as Redskins' head coach. He is 11-21 in two years despite being a success in Denver. If things don't go well this year he could be gone. He could not afford another year with Grossman or Beck at QB, he needed to make the big splash. Shanahan has not won a Super Bowl without John Elway, which has hurt his legacy of being a really good head coach and has won only one playoff game since Elway retired in 1998. He needs this for his ego. Griffin can take Shanahan and the Redskins to the promise land. Who was the last great QB for the Redskins? Was it Joe Theismann? They won Super Bowls with Doug Williams and Mark Rypien since Theismann but it was more of a system as both have been one-year wonder. The Redskins have not been relevant for two decades since the first time Joe Gibbs coached there. Even though for the past decade or so when Daniel Snyder became owner of the Redskins, they have been irrelevant despite making big splashes in free agency and in the off season each and every year. Those big splashes usually ended up in failure and the Redskins usually finish at the bottom of their division. They have only made the playoffs twice since 1999 and three times since 1992 with only one division title.
The Redskins lacked in one thing and that was getting the QB. Now they will finally have the guy. who could lead them to the playoffs for the next decade or so and hopefully the Super Bowl. Time will tell if this is the right deal and who will win this trade: Washington or St. Louis. But it was a deal Washington needed to make win or lose and I believe they will win.
If you are bothered by the Redskins trading 3 first round picks, the reality is that they are swapping this year's first (6th overall) with the Rams' first. Hopefully for the Redskins, they won't have to be drafting too high in the next couple of years and they figure they won't with the addition of Griffin. Griffin has all the tools and ability to be a starting QB in this league and be a good one. Some even think Griffin could go #1 ahead of Andrew Luck, but more likely he will go #2. Griffin is fast and can throw on the run. He has a strong arm and can make many of the throws. If you look at Griffin's number or even watch him play at Baylor, you see a QB that throws the ball down the field and is not a check down quarterback. He is also very smart as he would be going to Law School if he weren't going into the NFL. Griffin can make a huge impact much like Cam Newton did for Carolina last year. Newton only had a couple of months to learn the playbook as he missed time in OTA's and Mini Camps during the NFL Lockout and look what he did breaking many of Peyton Manning's rookie records. What would Griffin do with more time to get accustomed to the playbook and learn the offense? He seems to be the ideal candidate in Mike Shanahan's offense that has really struggled the last two years with Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and John Beck under center.
Speaking of Shanahan and his struggles, he needed to make this deal as he is in his 3rd and could very well be his final year as Redskins' head coach. He is 11-21 in two years despite being a success in Denver. If things don't go well this year he could be gone. He could not afford another year with Grossman or Beck at QB, he needed to make the big splash. Shanahan has not won a Super Bowl without John Elway, which has hurt his legacy of being a really good head coach and has won only one playoff game since Elway retired in 1998. He needs this for his ego. Griffin can take Shanahan and the Redskins to the promise land. Who was the last great QB for the Redskins? Was it Joe Theismann? They won Super Bowls with Doug Williams and Mark Rypien since Theismann but it was more of a system as both have been one-year wonder. The Redskins have not been relevant for two decades since the first time Joe Gibbs coached there. Even though for the past decade or so when Daniel Snyder became owner of the Redskins, they have been irrelevant despite making big splashes in free agency and in the off season each and every year. Those big splashes usually ended up in failure and the Redskins usually finish at the bottom of their division. They have only made the playoffs twice since 1999 and three times since 1992 with only one division title.
The Redskins lacked in one thing and that was getting the QB. Now they will finally have the guy. who could lead them to the playoffs for the next decade or so and hopefully the Super Bowl. Time will tell if this is the right deal and who will win this trade: Washington or St. Louis. But it was a deal Washington needed to make win or lose and I believe they will win.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Don't Feel Too Sorry For Manning and Colts Fans
I know Peyton Manning being released yesterday in Indianapolis was a sad day for Colts fans and I'm also sure Manning himself, who played there for 14 seasons. However, Colts fans saw great football in those 14 seasons as they won a Super Bowl, been to another, and were a consistent 10 plus win team year in year out. In fact, the Colts set an NFL record with nine consecutive 10 win seasons from 2002-2010. As for Manning, well he's made big time money and deservedly so. He turned Indianapolis from a loser into a winner almost instantly. Let's face it, before Manning came along, the Colts were not a hotbed in the NFL. Indianapolis was all about Indiana basketball, the Indiana Pacers, and the Indianapolis 500. Manning comes in and transforms that city into Colts town. Because of Manning, the Colts build a brand new state-of-the-art stadium that otherwise wouldn't be built and they would probably be moving to I don't know, Los Angeles. Plus they just hosted the Super Bowl in their new stadium. There's no way Indy hosts a Super Bowl without that stadium and there's no way they get that stadium without Manning.
It will be hard to move on from a man who meant so much to the city and vice versa. It's hard it's emotional I get it. But everyone needs to put things into perspective. Manning has made tons of money, including $25 million or whatever last year despite Manning not taking a single snap. They gave him that roster bonus and not put him on the IR and kept him on the active roster just to give him the bonus. Now to pay him $28 million with the chance that he might not play or play up to his Hall of Fame level. Plus he's 36 so he isn't getting any younger and he's had several neck surgeries the past few years. The Colts went 2-14 without him and are drafting 1st overall and they will probably take Andrew Luck, who many claim is the next Peyton Manning. We shall wait and see. Owner Jim Irsay cleaned house of the front office, including the man who drafted Manning back in 98, Bill Polian, and also got rid of the coach. It's clear they want to start over and Manning should want to move on and win somewhere else because Indy is not going to have a ton of talent for him to work with. If he wants to win a Super Bowl and I know he does, he won't do it in Indy. He already gave Indy a Super Bowl trophy and another appearance a couple of years ago. As for the fans, it's tough but it's life. Nothing lasts forever. But the good news is your getting Andrew Luck, who I'm sure won't replicate what Manning has done right off the bat but I bet you he will be a very good QB in his own right a few years down the road. With a chance for another 10-15 years of success, would you give up another year of possibly awful football? Especially when Luck falls right into your lap?
Look at how some teams have moved on from their franchise quarterback over the years. The San Francisco 49ers went from Joe Montana to Steve Young and even to Jeff Garcia, who had some good years in the bay area. Green Bay went from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers. So as you see, you go from great QB to another, the transition is a lot easier than expected. Of course the guy coming in has to prove but once he does, you almost forget about the guy before. Of course some teams like Miami and Buffalo have lost franchise QBs and have not been the same. I still remember the Bills cutting Jim Kelly and him retiring 15 years ago. I never expected the Bills to go this long without getting some sort of good quarterback. They've missed on so many and it's no surprise that they have missed the playoffs 12 years in a row. Look what Manning has done to energize an entire city and region, don't you think an elite franchise QB could the same for Buffalo? It did in the early 90s with Kelly as the Bills were one of the best teams in the NFL and went to 4 straight Super Bowls. I heard on the Colin Cowherd show that the Bears have made something like 17 different starting quarterbacks since Peyton broke into the league in 1998. I think he said Miami has had 15 or 16. Manning had not missed a single game from 1998 to 2010, 208 consecutive starts, only behind Brett Favre's record of 297 consecutive starts. His durability especially after taking a beating in his last few years is amazing.
Being a Bills fan, I have to say I have no sympathy for Colts fans. You had 14 amazing years with Manning, winning a Super Bowl, and now you get Andrew Luck. There's a chance of you possibly having 25-30 years of awesome quarterbacking. You even got a Super Bowl in your city. You have a new stadium. Our stadium is old and dilapidated. I like it but it doesn't compete with the new stadiums around the league. Did I mention we don't have a quarterback nor having a possible franchise QB fall into our laps like you guys did after a horrible season? It's like winning the lottery, living it up for 14 years and blowing it all only to win the lottery once again. If they aren't in the position to draft Luck, I believe the Colts keep him. Luck is the no-brainer move. You might take a step backwards but let's face it, you're already backwards after Manning was out. Take a step back now so that you will take many steps forward in the not to distant future. For those of you who are mad and/or an Andrew Luck hater, how about not having any good quarterback for over a decade and being irrelevant?
Colt fans, you've known since last Sept. this was happening so don't act all surprised. This wasn't like Lebron James telling Cleveland he was leaving to Miami on a prime time television special on ESPN. As for Manning, he will continue to rack in the dough and for the first time in his career, he will choose where he wants to go and possibly win another Super Bowl. He will have the chance to energize another city much like the way he did in Indy whether it's Miami, Arizona, Washington, or wherever. Jersey sales and revenue will continue to grow. Another team that was downtrodden will be more relevant and that's good for the league. Manning's not retired he will still play.
It will be hard to move on from a man who meant so much to the city and vice versa. It's hard it's emotional I get it. But everyone needs to put things into perspective. Manning has made tons of money, including $25 million or whatever last year despite Manning not taking a single snap. They gave him that roster bonus and not put him on the IR and kept him on the active roster just to give him the bonus. Now to pay him $28 million with the chance that he might not play or play up to his Hall of Fame level. Plus he's 36 so he isn't getting any younger and he's had several neck surgeries the past few years. The Colts went 2-14 without him and are drafting 1st overall and they will probably take Andrew Luck, who many claim is the next Peyton Manning. We shall wait and see. Owner Jim Irsay cleaned house of the front office, including the man who drafted Manning back in 98, Bill Polian, and also got rid of the coach. It's clear they want to start over and Manning should want to move on and win somewhere else because Indy is not going to have a ton of talent for him to work with. If he wants to win a Super Bowl and I know he does, he won't do it in Indy. He already gave Indy a Super Bowl trophy and another appearance a couple of years ago. As for the fans, it's tough but it's life. Nothing lasts forever. But the good news is your getting Andrew Luck, who I'm sure won't replicate what Manning has done right off the bat but I bet you he will be a very good QB in his own right a few years down the road. With a chance for another 10-15 years of success, would you give up another year of possibly awful football? Especially when Luck falls right into your lap?
Look at how some teams have moved on from their franchise quarterback over the years. The San Francisco 49ers went from Joe Montana to Steve Young and even to Jeff Garcia, who had some good years in the bay area. Green Bay went from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers. So as you see, you go from great QB to another, the transition is a lot easier than expected. Of course the guy coming in has to prove but once he does, you almost forget about the guy before. Of course some teams like Miami and Buffalo have lost franchise QBs and have not been the same. I still remember the Bills cutting Jim Kelly and him retiring 15 years ago. I never expected the Bills to go this long without getting some sort of good quarterback. They've missed on so many and it's no surprise that they have missed the playoffs 12 years in a row. Look what Manning has done to energize an entire city and region, don't you think an elite franchise QB could the same for Buffalo? It did in the early 90s with Kelly as the Bills were one of the best teams in the NFL and went to 4 straight Super Bowls. I heard on the Colin Cowherd show that the Bears have made something like 17 different starting quarterbacks since Peyton broke into the league in 1998. I think he said Miami has had 15 or 16. Manning had not missed a single game from 1998 to 2010, 208 consecutive starts, only behind Brett Favre's record of 297 consecutive starts. His durability especially after taking a beating in his last few years is amazing.
Being a Bills fan, I have to say I have no sympathy for Colts fans. You had 14 amazing years with Manning, winning a Super Bowl, and now you get Andrew Luck. There's a chance of you possibly having 25-30 years of awesome quarterbacking. You even got a Super Bowl in your city. You have a new stadium. Our stadium is old and dilapidated. I like it but it doesn't compete with the new stadiums around the league. Did I mention we don't have a quarterback nor having a possible franchise QB fall into our laps like you guys did after a horrible season? It's like winning the lottery, living it up for 14 years and blowing it all only to win the lottery once again. If they aren't in the position to draft Luck, I believe the Colts keep him. Luck is the no-brainer move. You might take a step backwards but let's face it, you're already backwards after Manning was out. Take a step back now so that you will take many steps forward in the not to distant future. For those of you who are mad and/or an Andrew Luck hater, how about not having any good quarterback for over a decade and being irrelevant?
Colt fans, you've known since last Sept. this was happening so don't act all surprised. This wasn't like Lebron James telling Cleveland he was leaving to Miami on a prime time television special on ESPN. As for Manning, he will continue to rack in the dough and for the first time in his career, he will choose where he wants to go and possibly win another Super Bowl. He will have the chance to energize another city much like the way he did in Indy whether it's Miami, Arizona, Washington, or wherever. Jersey sales and revenue will continue to grow. Another team that was downtrodden will be more relevant and that's good for the league. Manning's not retired he will still play.
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