1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Showing posts with label Stanford Cardinal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stanford Cardinal. Show all posts
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Andrew Luck vs. RG3
This year's NFL Draft will have the two best quarterbacks in college football going 1st and 2nd: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Both men have had two great careers at Stanford and Baylor respectively. Both schools are very highly academic and neither school in recent years had much success in football. That was until these two men came along and totally changed their fortunes around. See just because you are smart, does not mean you can't be athletically gifted. These are different breeds of athletes who make teams and talent around them better. I think it is one thing if both these QBs went to primarily football schools like USC, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan, and Florida. But they choose schools that were smaller and were more for shall I say, the academically gifted. They really have not had much success in football. You don't go to Stanford and Baylor primarily for football. Sure both these men went for a great education, but both are capable of starting in the NFL and both will drafted 1 and 2. Both these men have the intelligence to make great decisions on and off the field and their physical talents make them the stars that they are. I will show you both men similarities and differences and which one is worth drafting 1st overall.
As I mentioned, Luck went to Stanford. Another high profile QB went to Stanford, that was John Elway. Another former Super Bowl winning QB who also won the Heisman Trophy went there as well, that was Jim Plunkett. But in recent years, Stanford had not been the model for success in college football. Generally, they finished near or at the bottom of the Pac-12. Then Jim Harbaugh came along in 2007 and helped change the fortunes around and even beat mighty USC twice in his first three years there. Harbaugh recruited Luck, who was a four-star recruit. Luck was a son of a former NFL QB in Oliver Luck. Luck spent his early childhood in London, England and Frankfurt, Germany, where his father was a general manager of two teams in the World League of American Football, before Oliver became the president of the league. Then the family came back to the U.S., where Oliver ran his own business in Houston. Luck was a stellar QB in high school and was brilliant, as he was co-valedictorian of his class in 2008.
Luck redshirted his freshman year in 2008 before earning the starting job as a redshirt freshman in 2009. Despite playing in a run-oriented offense behind Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency and was second in total offense. Luck led the Cardinal to victories over top-10 teams Oregon and USC and led Stanford to its first bowl game since 2001. Luck was one of the top players in college football in 2010 as he led Stanford to a 12-1 record, a #4 ranking in the final AP Poll, and an Orange Bowl win. Luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency, passing yards, total offense, and passing touchdowns as he was named Pac-10 Player of the Year. Luck was runner-up to Cam Newton in voting for the Heisman Trophy. He also won Orange Bowl MVP after throwing 4 touchdowns in a 40-12 rout over Virginia Tech. Luck was the unanimous #1 overall pick going into the 2011 NFL Draft if he came out. Even though his head coach Jim Harbaugh left to go to the NFL, Luck decided to stay for his redshirt junior season and finish his degree.
Luck had a new head coach in David Shaw, who was Luck's offensive coordinator. Shaw helped mold Luck into the QB he is and the Cardinal's offense was one of the highest scoring in the NCAA. Luck finished his junior season by breaking many school and conference passing records and was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year for the second year in a row. He guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 record, a #7 ranking in the final AP Poll, and a second straight berth in a BCS Bowl Game, where they lost to Oklahoma State. Luck was again runner-up for the Heisman for the second straight year. Luck declared for the NFL Draft after the season and is considered to be the #1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. Luck is considered to be the best quarterback prospect to come out since Peyton Manning in 1998. Some say he is the best since John Elway in 1983. Luck has a cerebral approach to the game as he can make all the throws necessary, throwing balls into tight windows where only the receiver can catch those, has a strong arm, can throw deep, is very accurate, and he is also very mobile as he broke Elway's single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback as he is very athletically gifted.
Griffin was the one who beat Luck for the Heisman Trophy last season. Griffin went to Baylor after originally committing to play for Houston under head coach Art Briles, but switched to Baylor after Briles decided to go to Baylor. Griffin was a three-sport star athlete in football, basketball, and track in high school. He was a sensational dual-threat quarterback as well as a track star as was named to the All-USA Track and Field team as a sprinter/hurdler. Griffin graduated a semester early from high school after serving as president and graduated seventh in his class so he can join the Baylor track team and get ready to play QB. Griffin started 11 of the 12 games for Baylor in 2008 as a true freshman and was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year. Despite finishing 4-8, Baylor was much more improved with Griffin under center. Griffin threw for 2,091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions and also rushed for 843 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Griffin also led Baylor to a 41-21 upset victory over Texas A&M. Griffin tore his ACL in the third game in 2009, ending his season as he used a medical redshirt for the rest of the season to give him another year of college eligibility. Griffin came back healthy for 2010 and guided Baylor to its first bowl game since 1994.
Griffin started the 2011 season on a tear as he guided Baylor to an upset win over then #15 TCU as he completed nearly 78% of his passes for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns. After struggling in October where they lost 3 of 4 games to conference rivals Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, Baylor rebounded as Griffin led the Bears to five straight wins to close out the season. Griffin soon showcased his Heisman moments. Against Kansas, Griffin led Baylor from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to a 31-30 overtime win. Then against #5 Oklahoma, Griffin threw a highlight 34-yard touchdown pass with just 8 seconds left to win, 45-38. Then Baylor ended the regular season by beating Texas Tech 66-42 and #22 Texas 48-24 to finish 9-3, 6-3 in Big 12 play. As a result, Griffin became the first player from Baylor to win the Heisman Trophy. He was definitely the most electrifying player in college football. It just so happened that Baylor played the most spectacular Alamo Bowl and one of the most exciting bowl games ever against Washington. Baylor fell behind 49-39 lead in the 3rd quarter, then outscored them 28-7 the rest of the game to win 67-56. Griffin finished the season ranked second in the nation in passing efficiency at 189.5 along with 4,293 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, just six interceptions, 72.4 completion %, 10.7 yards per attempt, 699 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Baylor finished 10-3 and ranked 13th in the final AP Poll, the highest ranking for Baylor in 25 years.
Both Luck and Griffin have many similarities that make them great. Both are very bright, both went to schools that are more intellectual and less to do with football and both took those schools to heights where they haven't been to in a long time, both have tremendous arms, both are extremely accurate, both do not turn the ball over or make a lot of mistakes and bad throws, both throw from the pocket, and both are extremely mobile, although Griffin is faster. The differences are size where Luck is a little taller and weighs a little more and also the talent around them where Griffin had more offensive talent around him than Luck did and I think Luck did more with less. That doesn't mean Griffin can't do well without great talent around him and its not like he had a tremendous defense and bailed them out many times, but Luck showed he can lead a team without much offensive talent and make them better.
If I can compare Luck with NFL QBs I'd say he's a lot like John Elway because they are both very mobile and athletic and smart and have a strong arm. He's also quite like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and even Eli Manning in terms of intelligence and ability to lead teams and be able to call plays and audible at the line of scrimmage. Griffin's accuracy especially down the field, height, and intelligence is reminiscent of Drew Brees. His ability to move around and throw on the run and his ability to not turn the ball over reminds me of Aaron Rodgers while his overall mobility reminds me of Cam Newton. As you can tell, there is a lot of qualities in both of these men that can make them elite QBs in the NFL. I'm not saying they will be these guys, but if they are anything close they will be great NFL QBs who could lead their respective teams to the Super Bowl.
If I were to pick one of these guys first overall, it would be Luck just because I've seen more of him the last two years and I think he is the slam dunk pick. Griffin is not a bad consolation prize and has tremendous upside that could maybe even surpass Luck. But I want the stability of what Luck brings and has brought the last few years. But Griffin is a close second to Luck and its not at all like Manning-Leaf in 98. Griffin will be very good too.
As I mentioned, Luck went to Stanford. Another high profile QB went to Stanford, that was John Elway. Another former Super Bowl winning QB who also won the Heisman Trophy went there as well, that was Jim Plunkett. But in recent years, Stanford had not been the model for success in college football. Generally, they finished near or at the bottom of the Pac-12. Then Jim Harbaugh came along in 2007 and helped change the fortunes around and even beat mighty USC twice in his first three years there. Harbaugh recruited Luck, who was a four-star recruit. Luck was a son of a former NFL QB in Oliver Luck. Luck spent his early childhood in London, England and Frankfurt, Germany, where his father was a general manager of two teams in the World League of American Football, before Oliver became the president of the league. Then the family came back to the U.S., where Oliver ran his own business in Houston. Luck was a stellar QB in high school and was brilliant, as he was co-valedictorian of his class in 2008.
Luck redshirted his freshman year in 2008 before earning the starting job as a redshirt freshman in 2009. Despite playing in a run-oriented offense behind Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency and was second in total offense. Luck led the Cardinal to victories over top-10 teams Oregon and USC and led Stanford to its first bowl game since 2001. Luck was one of the top players in college football in 2010 as he led Stanford to a 12-1 record, a #4 ranking in the final AP Poll, and an Orange Bowl win. Luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency, passing yards, total offense, and passing touchdowns as he was named Pac-10 Player of the Year. Luck was runner-up to Cam Newton in voting for the Heisman Trophy. He also won Orange Bowl MVP after throwing 4 touchdowns in a 40-12 rout over Virginia Tech. Luck was the unanimous #1 overall pick going into the 2011 NFL Draft if he came out. Even though his head coach Jim Harbaugh left to go to the NFL, Luck decided to stay for his redshirt junior season and finish his degree.
Luck had a new head coach in David Shaw, who was Luck's offensive coordinator. Shaw helped mold Luck into the QB he is and the Cardinal's offense was one of the highest scoring in the NCAA. Luck finished his junior season by breaking many school and conference passing records and was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year for the second year in a row. He guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 record, a #7 ranking in the final AP Poll, and a second straight berth in a BCS Bowl Game, where they lost to Oklahoma State. Luck was again runner-up for the Heisman for the second straight year. Luck declared for the NFL Draft after the season and is considered to be the #1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. Luck is considered to be the best quarterback prospect to come out since Peyton Manning in 1998. Some say he is the best since John Elway in 1983. Luck has a cerebral approach to the game as he can make all the throws necessary, throwing balls into tight windows where only the receiver can catch those, has a strong arm, can throw deep, is very accurate, and he is also very mobile as he broke Elway's single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback as he is very athletically gifted.
Griffin was the one who beat Luck for the Heisman Trophy last season. Griffin went to Baylor after originally committing to play for Houston under head coach Art Briles, but switched to Baylor after Briles decided to go to Baylor. Griffin was a three-sport star athlete in football, basketball, and track in high school. He was a sensational dual-threat quarterback as well as a track star as was named to the All-USA Track and Field team as a sprinter/hurdler. Griffin graduated a semester early from high school after serving as president and graduated seventh in his class so he can join the Baylor track team and get ready to play QB. Griffin started 11 of the 12 games for Baylor in 2008 as a true freshman and was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year. Despite finishing 4-8, Baylor was much more improved with Griffin under center. Griffin threw for 2,091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions and also rushed for 843 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Griffin also led Baylor to a 41-21 upset victory over Texas A&M. Griffin tore his ACL in the third game in 2009, ending his season as he used a medical redshirt for the rest of the season to give him another year of college eligibility. Griffin came back healthy for 2010 and guided Baylor to its first bowl game since 1994.
Griffin started the 2011 season on a tear as he guided Baylor to an upset win over then #15 TCU as he completed nearly 78% of his passes for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns. After struggling in October where they lost 3 of 4 games to conference rivals Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, Baylor rebounded as Griffin led the Bears to five straight wins to close out the season. Griffin soon showcased his Heisman moments. Against Kansas, Griffin led Baylor from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to a 31-30 overtime win. Then against #5 Oklahoma, Griffin threw a highlight 34-yard touchdown pass with just 8 seconds left to win, 45-38. Then Baylor ended the regular season by beating Texas Tech 66-42 and #22 Texas 48-24 to finish 9-3, 6-3 in Big 12 play. As a result, Griffin became the first player from Baylor to win the Heisman Trophy. He was definitely the most electrifying player in college football. It just so happened that Baylor played the most spectacular Alamo Bowl and one of the most exciting bowl games ever against Washington. Baylor fell behind 49-39 lead in the 3rd quarter, then outscored them 28-7 the rest of the game to win 67-56. Griffin finished the season ranked second in the nation in passing efficiency at 189.5 along with 4,293 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, just six interceptions, 72.4 completion %, 10.7 yards per attempt, 699 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Baylor finished 10-3 and ranked 13th in the final AP Poll, the highest ranking for Baylor in 25 years.
Both Luck and Griffin have many similarities that make them great. Both are very bright, both went to schools that are more intellectual and less to do with football and both took those schools to heights where they haven't been to in a long time, both have tremendous arms, both are extremely accurate, both do not turn the ball over or make a lot of mistakes and bad throws, both throw from the pocket, and both are extremely mobile, although Griffin is faster. The differences are size where Luck is a little taller and weighs a little more and also the talent around them where Griffin had more offensive talent around him than Luck did and I think Luck did more with less. That doesn't mean Griffin can't do well without great talent around him and its not like he had a tremendous defense and bailed them out many times, but Luck showed he can lead a team without much offensive talent and make them better.
If I can compare Luck with NFL QBs I'd say he's a lot like John Elway because they are both very mobile and athletic and smart and have a strong arm. He's also quite like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and even Eli Manning in terms of intelligence and ability to lead teams and be able to call plays and audible at the line of scrimmage. Griffin's accuracy especially down the field, height, and intelligence is reminiscent of Drew Brees. His ability to move around and throw on the run and his ability to not turn the ball over reminds me of Aaron Rodgers while his overall mobility reminds me of Cam Newton. As you can tell, there is a lot of qualities in both of these men that can make them elite QBs in the NFL. I'm not saying they will be these guys, but if they are anything close they will be great NFL QBs who could lead their respective teams to the Super Bowl.
If I were to pick one of these guys first overall, it would be Luck just because I've seen more of him the last two years and I think he is the slam dunk pick. Griffin is not a bad consolation prize and has tremendous upside that could maybe even surpass Luck. But I want the stability of what Luck brings and has brought the last few years. But Griffin is a close second to Luck and its not at all like Manning-Leaf in 98. Griffin will be very good too.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round Since 2004
Generally there has been a myth that you should not take a quarterback high or in the first round because if you miss on it, it will set your franchise back for many years. That has been true because first round quarterbacks in years past was a little something of a crapshoot. Its been a 50-50 success-bust ratio, maybe 51-49. But since 2004 when the rules changed to make the game more in favor of quarterbacks, the success rate has jumped up exponentially. Between 2004 and 2010, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Out of those 19, 15 have been either elite or serviceable. 4 have been busts which translates to nearly 80% success rate, which means 4 out of every 5 quarterbacks taken in the first round are successes. Before that, it was about 50-50. 80% is outstanding when it comes to selecting the game's most important position. Success rates of quarterbacks drafted each round after shrinks significantly. Check out my last blog about QBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html)
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
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