It's no secret that Colin Kaepernick has fallen over the last year since he replaced Alex Smith three years ago and took the team to the Super Bowl his first year and the NFC Championship Game his second before falling to 8-8 with a down year. He's tied for 18th in this Mike Sando QB rankings article (http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348). Kaepernick has shown flashes of brilliance as a playmaker, but has also shown inaccuaracy and immaturity. His quarterback rating and QBR has fallen steadily each of his three seasons and dropped from 14th in the rankings the previous year to tied for 18th this year in this article. He'll never be an elite or even a "franchise QB."
That does not mean however that there is not a place for Kaepernick in the NFL and there are some teams who could use Kaepernick and his mobility and strong arm more than the current starting QB(s) that they have. Cleveland definitely would and should get him over their bums in Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Houston definitely as well with that talented roster, he's much better than Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.
Washington could because they need to move on from RGIII, I think Kaepernick is better. But Washington will be terrible and will likely be challenging for the first pick of the draft and will draft their next QB. The New York Jets are another team Kaepernick would a very good option for with that defense and bringing in Brandon Marshall. He is definitely much better than either Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Plus I wanted to see what Kaepernick could have done in Chan Gailey's offense when Gailey was here as I wanted them to draft Kaepernick.
I'm not advocating the Bills trade for Kaepernick (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/which-qb-would-you-trade-dareus-for.html) but I would definitely bring him in here for the right price. He's definitely better than E.J. Manuel, Matt Cassel, and Tyrod Taylor that's for sure. With this defense, he could hopefully do things like he did in San Francisco and take this team to the playoffs. I doubt they would bring him in and who knows how he and Greg Roman's relationship is after Roman got fired because Kaepernick regressed last season.
I do think the 49ers should trade him and get whatever they can while they can fetch a pretty good price. I know he's declining but there is always a market for a QB who's taken his team to the Super Bowl and NFC Championship Game back-to-back seasons who's still better than 40% of the starting QBs in the NFL. Why should the 49ers trade him if he's still a pretty decent QB? Kaepernick is decent but not an elite QB and they should try to look to get better at the game's most important position. You can do worse, but you can try and do a lot better as well. Plus Kaepernick makes a ton of money thanks to last year's contract.
Another reason why they should trade him is I believe the 49ers will be one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be challenging for the top pick in the draft. That's even with Kaepernick as starting QB. Why not move on from him while he still has value and completely bottom out for one of the top QBs in this year's draft such as Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, and Cardale Jones? If Kaepernick is still there and they go 4-12, his market value is all but shot. Now you can probably get a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd round pick for Kaepernick.
The 49ers are a mess with many of the players from their Super Bowl team in 2012 either leaving in free agency, traded, or flat out retired along with a QB that has regressed when he was the talk of the town after replacing an injured Alex Smith. The talent level might now be one of the worst in the league (certainly a lot worse than the team across the Golden Gate Bridge the Oakland Raiders) so they're in line for one of the top picks in the draft. They need to start over and should look for the franchise QB that can take this team to the Super Bowl. I think it's best to start over and give Kaepernick a change of scenery. If this team was built to win now then of course keep Kaepernick. But it's not and try something else.
Of course there's this thing where Jim Harbaugh was fired because of an idiot GM in Trent Baalke that can't work with him. Harbaugh is an ass and a weirdo but he's won. Deal with it. He might be hard to work with and can wear people out but remember how terrible you guys were for a decade before he came here. They replaced a great coach with this guy Jim Tomsula.
In case you don't know who he is watch these two videos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1MQJ0JKIxQ) (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/new-49ers-head-coach-gets-a-little-grunty-in-his-first-interview-231453338.html?pt=tAD4SCT8P72012-08-02.html/). Doesn't this guy inspire you? Baalke should have been fired for thinking he should have fired Harbaugh especially knowing you are hiring this guy to replace him. What a difference between his and Rex Ryan's press conferences.
Apparently he doesn't want to "play the name game." Why? The name game is fun! Also his thing where he says he doesn't (or doesn't he say doesn't) want to say names out of "respect to those people." What are these people dead? What the heck does he mean by that? You don't say out of respect for (fill in name) unless it's a tragedy and coaching changes aren't a tragedy. It's not like he can't say a certain name because that guy is under contract. The interviewer was asking about Marc Trestman, who was fired by the Bears right after the season and wasn't under contract so he could mention him.
More bad PR as the 49ers continue to fail in this department when owner Jed York somewhat compared Tomsula to Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr (http://jimrome.com/2015/07/22/the-next-steve-kerr/). He did make it a point to point out how the fellow NBA Bay Area team fired a good coach in it's own right in Mark Jackson,who helped bring the Warriors back to the promised land if you will by taking a team that was a joke for over two decades to making the playoffs in back to back years, to replace him with a coach who wasn't a head coach ever.
Fans must have been furious firing a head coach who's taken their team to places they haven't been in 25 years or so, but management to their credit felt they could have done better. I guess winning a league-high 67 games and winning the first NBA title for the team in 40 years is a little better. I guess Harbaugh is being compared to Jackson and Tomsula is being compared to Kerr. That's wrong in so many ways and I don't have to explain them, you know them. Harbaugh did turn around the 49ers quickly like Jackson did with the Warriors, but Harbaugh did more and went further in the postseason than Jackson did.
Kerr won numerous NBA championships as a player, playing and learning from the best coach in NBA history in Phil Jackson. Tomsula was coaching in no name colleges and NFL Europe. Kerr was a GM for three years with the Phoenix Suns as well as spent numerous years as a TV analyst for NBA games. Tomsula could barely analyze a Burger King menu and he never did anything but be a defensive line coach, not a coordinator not an assistant head coach.
Oh I am sorry, he was an interim head coach for the 49ers for the last game of the 2010 season when he replaced the fired Mike Singletary (remember how terrible he was?) and then was kept on as defensive line coach by Harbaugh. Kerr also has the two best shooters in the NBA while Tomsula lost a ton of talent. Close York but no cigar!
I don't know why but I would bet money that Tomsula is punt on 4th down, play field position coach. Call me crazy it's just a silly hunch. Enjoy San Francisco, this is who you have leading your team right now. I bet you miss Harbaugh badly and the season hasn't even started.
Showing posts with label Cleveland Browns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cleveland Browns. Show all posts
Monday, July 27, 2015
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Final Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck - QB - Stanford
The Colts pretty much told Luck he's their guy to replace Peyton Manning.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor
The Redskins did not trade three first round picks to move up into #2 for anything else but RGIII.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
Here's a twist, the Vikings have been linked to USC OT Matt Kalil for some time to protect Christian Ponder's blindside. But lately, there have been reports of Minnesota trading out of that pick or passing on Kalil altogether. Maybe Kalil, who went to USC, reminds the Vikings too much of Los Angeles where they are rumored to be heading if they don't get this stadium issue resolved. Head coach Leslie Frazier came out and said tackle isn't a difference maker and they need a difference maker. The Vikings need a cornerback and take the best in the draft in Morris Claiborne. The Vikings need a corner as they play in a division with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and his group of receivers, and even Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall twice a year.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The Cleveland Browns need so much help on offense and really need a play maker and difference maker. They won't take Ryan Tannehill here, there are reports of possibly wide receiver Justin Blackmon for Colt McCoy. But it appears Blackmon is not worth taking here so they go the best running back and offensive player at this spot in Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil - OT - USC
The Bucs could trade out of this pick to someone who wants Matt Kalil as they really liked Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. They could also just sit here and take Kalil, the best left tackle in the draft, as they need a tackle.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma State
The Rams have been linked to Richardson and Claiborne and both are off the board. There are reports that they want a defensive tackle, possibly Fletcher Cox. Even if Matt Kalil fell here it would be good for QB Sam Bradford, who was hit a ton last here and even missed 6 games because of injury. But the Rams take the best wide receiver in the draft in Justin Blackmon. This should give Bradford a number one receiver he's clearly lacked.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Jaguars could use a wide receiver for Blaine Gabbert, but Justin Blackmon is off the board even though Michael Floyd is on the board. But the Jags need a corner and really love Stephon Gilmore so he's the pick.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
This is a desperation pick perhaps but the Dolphins need a QB after whiffing on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith in the offseason. The Dolphins like Tannehill a lot and unless someone trades up to get him or even Miami trades up, he'll be the pick here. The Dolphins have Matt Moore, who is decent but not a franchise guy. Moore can start for a year while Tannehill waits a year or so as he is not ready to start now. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman recruited and coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi State
The Panthers need a defensive tackle and take the best in the draft in Fletcher Cox. Some reports of Dontari Poe has climbed up the draft boards because of a great workout but seems to not the player Cox is.
10. Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron - S - Alabama
The Bills need a wide receiver, offensive tackle, and cornerback. Michael Floyd is on the board and would be a great number two opposite Steve Johnson. But the Bills don't seem to value him as he was not scheduled to workout with the Bills prior to the draft. Offensive tackle is a big point as they have worked out Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin. But GM Buddy Nix seemed to dismiss that notion of taking a tackle as they want a difference maker at 10 and that Chris Hairston can be a starter and there is a bunch of tackle depth in this draft. So it appears that the secondary is the option. The Bills seem to really love both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Mark Barron. Gilmore has the slight edge otherwise its pretty even. Gilmore is off the board but he'd be the pick if he was on the board. So the Bills select Barron, who is a top-10 talent. As of today, I've been hearing an awful lot of Barron being the guy the Bills want.
11. Kansas City Chief: Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw - DE/OLB - Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin - OT - Stanford
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus - DE/OLB - Illinois
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Brandon Weeden - QB - Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn - OT/OG - Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler - OG - Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill - WR - Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots: Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC
28. Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy - DT - Michigan State
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower - LB - Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellan - LB - Boise State
32. New York Giants: Mike Adams - OT - Ohio State
The Colts pretty much told Luck he's their guy to replace Peyton Manning.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor
The Redskins did not trade three first round picks to move up into #2 for anything else but RGIII.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
Here's a twist, the Vikings have been linked to USC OT Matt Kalil for some time to protect Christian Ponder's blindside. But lately, there have been reports of Minnesota trading out of that pick or passing on Kalil altogether. Maybe Kalil, who went to USC, reminds the Vikings too much of Los Angeles where they are rumored to be heading if they don't get this stadium issue resolved. Head coach Leslie Frazier came out and said tackle isn't a difference maker and they need a difference maker. The Vikings need a cornerback and take the best in the draft in Morris Claiborne. The Vikings need a corner as they play in a division with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and his group of receivers, and even Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall twice a year.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The Cleveland Browns need so much help on offense and really need a play maker and difference maker. They won't take Ryan Tannehill here, there are reports of possibly wide receiver Justin Blackmon for Colt McCoy. But it appears Blackmon is not worth taking here so they go the best running back and offensive player at this spot in Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil - OT - USC
The Bucs could trade out of this pick to someone who wants Matt Kalil as they really liked Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. They could also just sit here and take Kalil, the best left tackle in the draft, as they need a tackle.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma State
The Rams have been linked to Richardson and Claiborne and both are off the board. There are reports that they want a defensive tackle, possibly Fletcher Cox. Even if Matt Kalil fell here it would be good for QB Sam Bradford, who was hit a ton last here and even missed 6 games because of injury. But the Rams take the best wide receiver in the draft in Justin Blackmon. This should give Bradford a number one receiver he's clearly lacked.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Jaguars could use a wide receiver for Blaine Gabbert, but Justin Blackmon is off the board even though Michael Floyd is on the board. But the Jags need a corner and really love Stephon Gilmore so he's the pick.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
This is a desperation pick perhaps but the Dolphins need a QB after whiffing on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith in the offseason. The Dolphins like Tannehill a lot and unless someone trades up to get him or even Miami trades up, he'll be the pick here. The Dolphins have Matt Moore, who is decent but not a franchise guy. Moore can start for a year while Tannehill waits a year or so as he is not ready to start now. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman recruited and coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi State
The Panthers need a defensive tackle and take the best in the draft in Fletcher Cox. Some reports of Dontari Poe has climbed up the draft boards because of a great workout but seems to not the player Cox is.
10. Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron - S - Alabama
The Bills need a wide receiver, offensive tackle, and cornerback. Michael Floyd is on the board and would be a great number two opposite Steve Johnson. But the Bills don't seem to value him as he was not scheduled to workout with the Bills prior to the draft. Offensive tackle is a big point as they have worked out Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin. But GM Buddy Nix seemed to dismiss that notion of taking a tackle as they want a difference maker at 10 and that Chris Hairston can be a starter and there is a bunch of tackle depth in this draft. So it appears that the secondary is the option. The Bills seem to really love both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Mark Barron. Gilmore has the slight edge otherwise its pretty even. Gilmore is off the board but he'd be the pick if he was on the board. So the Bills select Barron, who is a top-10 talent. As of today, I've been hearing an awful lot of Barron being the guy the Bills want.
11. Kansas City Chief: Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw - DE/OLB - Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin - OT - Stanford
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus - DE/OLB - Illinois
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Brandon Weeden - QB - Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn - OT/OG - Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler - OG - Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill - WR - Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots: Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC
28. Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy - DT - Michigan State
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower - LB - Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellan - LB - Boise State
32. New York Giants: Mike Adams - OT - Ohio State
Thursday, April 19, 2012
2012 NFL Mock Draft V 2.0
1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Five Reasons Why I Wouldn't Want Ryan Tannehill
I've already written about the top two quarterback prospects in the draft: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/andrew-luck-vs-rg3.html). Both those men are slam dunk picks. The number three quarterback prospect in this year's draft is Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill could anywhere from #3 (with a team possibly trading up with Minnesota) to about #11 or #12. He does have great size, mobility, and arm strength. I'll tell you why I'm not buying the hype on Tannehill even though many are. Here are the five reasons why I wouldn't want Tannehill:
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
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