For all those out there who say "Don't draft this guy in the 1st round. Take this guy if he's available in the 2nd round or that guy in the 3rd round," I am here to show everyone the myth of taking a quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round is a good thing to do as it is completely the opposite. Since 1992, the year after Super Bowl winning and former three-time NFL MVP Brett Favre was taken in the 2nd round, 47 quarterbacks were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Out of those 47 picks, 5 of those have played in the Pro Bowl. Those 5 guys are Kordell Stewart, Jake Plummer, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub (the only 3rd rounder on this list), and Andy Dalton. Dalton was only one to do it in his rookie year as he is only entering his second year. What an accomplishment. That's a whopping 10% success rate. If you don't count Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Mallett, who were both drafted last year and did not see the field, it's still only 11% success.
Of the five guys listed above, four of them started a playoff game, Schaub helped guide the Texans to the playoffs last year, but was hurt and did not play in the playoffs. Brees is the only one to start and win a Super Bowl. Stewart was only good for two of his 10 years as he only flourished with Chan Gailey and Mike Mularkey as offensive coordinators, who knew how to use him. Plummer led the Arizona Cardinals to the playoffs in his sophomore year, but struggled at times throwing interceptions on some bad Cardinals teams. He flourished under Mike Shanahan in Denver, leading them to the playoffs from 2003-2005, including an appearance in the 2005 AFC Championship Game before he was released and retired in 2007.
Dalton has been terrific as a rookie. He set all kinds of records at TCU and was a winner especially after going 13-0 and winning the Rose Bowl as a senior. He was drafted in the 2nd round by the Cincinnati Bengals, not because of his orange hair which fits the color of their helmets. Dalton was not cast into an ideal situation as the Bengals have been one of the league's laughing stocks and one of the most dysfunctional franchises. They finished 4-12 the year before and lost wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Carson Palmer "retired" and Dalton was left by himself to be the starter. Sure they had AJ Green, but not much was expected to do much, especially considering he was a rookie 2nd round pick, which hardly translates into success, and play in a division that sees you play the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens twice a year. Dalton shocked many in the league as he threw for 3,398 yards and 20 touchdowns and led the Bengals to a playoff birth with a 9-7 record. According to the cincinnatibengals.com website, Dalton is the first non first round quarterback to start all 16 games for his team and make the playoffs. Dalton played much like a first rounder as he not only protected the ball very well and made a lot of plays for his team and had four come-from-behind wins on the season. Dalton is one of five rookie QBs to throw for over 3,000 yards as well as 20 touchdowns. He was named Rookie of the Month for October. He made the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
In years past, first round picks were 50-50. Now it's an even higher success rate. The 2nd round is about 10% and the 3rd round is probably 5-8% success and it continues to drop all the way to round 7. So those who want a certain quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round, it's about a 90-10 failure to success rate. Even in years before Favre was drafted in 1991, 2nd and 3rd round QBs were not successful, maybe a little more than the last 20 years. Quarterback is such a premium position that teams take them high in the 1st round. Those who last into the 2nd or 3rd round or later, the success continues to go down as the talent continues to go down. They are not physically able or mentally able or both to be a franchise or serviceable QB at best. Many of these 2nd and 3rd round picks in the last 20 years aren't even good enough to be a backup in this league as they are quickly out of the league within 5 years. The worst part is, since 2004, the rules were tailored to the quarterback and even many of these guys since 2004 can even hold a clipboard in the NFL. You want an elite, franchise, and Super Bowl winning quarterback, you take him in the 1st round, preferably in the top-10. There are obviously some exceptions to the rule. Tom Brady drafted 6th round, 199th overall in 2000, Kurt Warner, undrafted out of 1-AA Northern Iowa and played in the Arena League and NFL Europe before coming into the NFL, have won Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVPs. They are the exception not the rule. Even Tony Romo is a top-10 quarterback and was undrafted and went to a Division 1-AA school.
Look at some of the names taken in the 2nd and 3rd round that were failures in this league: Billy Joe "I did not read the playbook" Hobert, Todd Collins (well if you count the fact he was a backup but in the league for about 13 seasons and even led the Redskins to the playoffs as a backup in 07, then I guess he's somewhat of a success but still not great), Tony Banks, Charlie Batch (believe it or not, still in the league and along with Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselbeck are the only quarterbacks still in the league from the 1998 NFL Draft), Brian Griese (never lived up to the hype of being Hall of Fame Bob Griese's son and winning a national championship at Michigan), Shaun King, Giovanni Carmazzi (did not play a single snap in the regular season, wouldn't the 49ers been smart to have taken Tom Brady instead),Chris Redman (backing up Matt Ryan in Atlanta), Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Josh McCown, Chris Simms (another son of a Hall of Famer who did not amount to much), Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Kevin Kolb (has not proven himself in Philadelphia or Arizona), John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White (who was the typical "Wildcat" QB who was drafted by the team that came up with that offense and cut him after only a year because he could not cut it in the NFL), Jimmy Clausen, and Colt McCoy. Not a lot of Hall of Famers there LOL.
That's what's your 2nd and 3rd round picks look like. Every squirrel finds a nut once in a while. That's why they are drafted not in the 1st round. The dropoff between the 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th best QB generally results in a pretty significant dropoff. So when you think you want someone in the 2nd or 3rd or even later rounds because you want that Brady or Brees or even Favre, remember the list of the players above plus the others you probably never heard of before. For ever Brees, there's 10 of Quincy Carter and Trent Edwards and Giovanni Carmazzi and Chad Henne and so on.
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