Generally there has been a myth that you should not take a quarterback high or in the first round because if you miss on it, it will set your franchise back for many years. That has been true because first round quarterbacks in years past was a little something of a crapshoot. Its been a 50-50 success-bust ratio, maybe 51-49. But since 2004 when the rules changed to make the game more in favor of quarterbacks, the success rate has jumped up exponentially. Between 2004 and 2010, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Out of those 19, 15 have been either elite or serviceable. 4 have been busts which translates to nearly 80% success rate, which means 4 out of every 5 quarterbacks taken in the first round are successes. Before that, it was about 50-50. 80% is outstanding when it comes to selecting the game's most important position. Success rates of quarterbacks drafted each round after shrinks significantly. Check out my last blog about QBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html)
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
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