I've already written about the top two quarterback prospects in the draft: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/andrew-luck-vs-rg3.html). Both those men are slam dunk picks. The number three quarterback prospect in this year's draft is Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill could anywhere from #3 (with a team possibly trading up with Minnesota) to about #11 or #12. He does have great size, mobility, and arm strength. I'll tell you why I'm not buying the hype on Tannehill even though many are. Here are the five reasons why I wouldn't want Tannehill:
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
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