Today was the deadline for Russell Wilson to negotiate a new deal beyond this season or else he was going to play out his last year. In the 11th hour, Wilson and the Seahawks agreed on a four-year, $87.6 million contract with $30 million up automatically up front and $60 total is guaranteed. Wilson did not get his $25 million a year he originally wanted but did get just under the $22 million Aaron Rodgers got.
He is not worth as much if not more than Rodgers or one of the top 3-5 QBs in the NFL. However, he is still a good, top 8-10 QB in this league and in a quarterback driven league starved with a franchise QB, you have to pay and overpay for one of the top-10 Qbs in the league. Wilson might not be worth it in the eyes of many especially because of the "Legion of Boom" defense and Marshawn Lynch. Two things, one the Seahawks think he's worth it and two, who will you get that's better?
Can you get Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Brees, Manning, or Roethlisberger? I didn't think so and those guys are the ones that are an upgrade over Wilson. Guys like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, are maybe slightly better or about the same. Point is 20% of the league has guys better than Wilson while another 10-15% have as good of a QB as him. A little more than 2/3 of the teams in the NFL are worse off than Seattle having Russell Wilson. That's why ladies and gentlemen he's making as much money as he does.
He has won a Super Bowl and been to another and would have won two had Pete Carroll ran Lynch instead of throwing it, can you believe that? Regardless, Wilson has two Super Bowl appearances in his first three years in the league. I can't think of any QB that has done that in league history. Tom Brady has been to two Super Bowls in his first three seasons as a starter but it was his fourth season. Same with Kurt Warner in two of his first three years as a starting QB but he bounced around the league a year or two before.
Whether you think Wilson or Joe Flacco or Eli Manning are great or not, they've won Super Bowls and you get rewarded for being a Super Bowl winning quarterback even if your not the best or one of the top-5. Also, you don't want to be a team that is looking for a franchise Quarterback. As a Bills fan, I can tell you it sucks to be still searching for a QB as we have since Jim Kelly retired two decades ago.
I wish we can have a guy like Wilson or Flacco or Eli where many experts say he's not the best and we have to overpay, but we still win games and even a Super Bowl. Hell, I'd be excited if we had a Tony Romo. Seattle, trust me you don't want that it's good you paid the man even if it's a lot more than you want to pay. I am not that greedy. Yes I want Rodgers or Luck but I'd "settle" for a Wilson or Flacco or Romo or Rivers. I'd even go Matt Stafford or Cam Newton.
Wilson will always not be given a lot of credit by many because of the fact Lynch is a great runner and the fact their defense is the best in the league. Wilson doesn't throw it a ton so he doesn't put up eye popping fantasy stats like Rodgers, Brees, or Manning. Seattle has been 32nd, 31st, and 32nd in pass attempts in Wilson's three seasons, but first, second, and first in rushing attempts so obviously they run more than they throw thanks to the fact they have Lynch and that Wilson is a great runner too.
But if you look at some of Wilson's passing numbers for as few attempts as he gets, it's actually pretty amazing. He completes nearly 2/3 of his passes with an overall passer rating of 98.6. It gets even better as his total yards per pass attempt is 7.9 and has thrown 72 touchdowns to just 26 interceptions, almost a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his career. That is amazing considering he doesn't have many weapons as a wide receiver or tight end to throw to.
Even when Wilson struggles, like last year's NFC Championship Game win over Green Bay, he plays well in the 4th quarter and overtime as he saves his best for last. Even in the second half of the season, he's better as his QB Ratings in the months of November, December, and January/February (playoffs/Super Bowl) are 108.3, 100.7, and 97.8, respectively.
To show Wilson's value to the team, Pete Carroll was about to be fired three years ago when Wilson won the starting job as a rookie as he had back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Since then, the Seahawks are 36-12 (42-14 if you count playoffs including a Super Bowl win) with Wilson starting. For those that think the defense is the reason they win, you are somewhat right but don't forget, they were 14-18 the two seasons before Wilson got there with Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, and Tavaris Jackson starting at QB with an elite defense.
Even Lynch had been there before Wilson, but his best seasons in terms or rushing yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns have all been there with Wilson starting as Wilson is a threat to throw or run. Teams just don't have to focus on stopping Lynch, which isn't easy by the way, and have to worry about Wilson.
The QB ultimately matters the most of any position on the field. We shall see however if Wilson can still be as successful with a defense that will be losing players in the future thanks to the salary cap and Lynch as well. We will wait and see and if Wilson struggles without an elite defense and Lynch, I'll stand corrected. Until then, I think highly of Wilson and value him a lot more than others.
In other news, New York Jets stud defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson has been busted for resisting arrest for an incident of a high speed road race.. It's not just high (no pun intended) speeding it's over 140 mph. 140 mph and it's not on a race track rather our beloved public streets. If that's not enough, all the passengers in the car allegedly were high and there was a loaded hand gun in the car.
If Dareus got one game for his drag racing along with marijuana charges, what's Richardson going to get for going close to three times the speed limit on the fastest roads in America between 55-65 mph, assuming he did they on a thruway or an unpopulated country back road. Don't forget, Richardson is already suspended for the first four games this season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. He apparently was arrested for this incident on July 14, two weeks after the suspension was handed down. He never let the Jets know he was arrested.
How does he treat being suspended for drug use? By going Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. rolled into one but they don't smoke chronic nor have loaded hand guns in their car. If Richardson wants a year vacation, he might end up getting it because I could see this being a year-long, maybe half a season long suspension. It doesn't look good for Richardson.
It goes to show you the offseason is too damn long as Richardson's racing incident (even Dareus' racing incident a year ago), Wilson's on-going contract talks, Brady's possible suspension, Ronald Darby's tweets, Aaron Kromer's hitting a kid (allegedly), heck even LeSean McCoy's famous or infamous party invite are demonstrations as to the league having way too long of an offseason and football can't start soon enough.
Friday, July 31, 2015
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
NFL Upholds Tom Brady Suspension; He's Still Suspended Four Games, but the First Four? We'll See
Tom Brady's appeal to Roger Goodell of the four-game suspension was denied as he currently is suspended for the first four games of the season, including the Bills game here on September 20. The reason for the NFL upholding the suspension is that they said Brady was not cooperative with the investigation and not turning his phone over and being very defiant throughout the investigation. They felt he's been tampering with the investigation thus the cover up is worse than the crime.
I see why Brady fights it because 1.) he doesn't want to miss games and try to clear his name which might never happen, and 2.) he knows he's Tom Brady and he can get away with anything. He's been getting away with stuff for 10-15 years. The Patriots cheat all the time and while they got punished for Spy Gate, they still got away with a not so harsh penalty which should have involved suspensions. They believe they are above the league and can do whatever they want and get away with it.
I don't know but I doubt the CBA has anything where the league can ask for your phone and you have to give it over. I bet it doesn't if it does Brady is screwed. If not, then the NFL can't prove even with the Wells Report and the looks of him cheating. But it appears they can't prove he did it if he went ahead and destroyed his phone instead of turning it over, therefore a settlement will probably be determined.
However, the CBA states Goodell has the ability to punish anyone who performs transgressions on the field and deflating footballs . Of course Goodell comes under intense scrutiny for punishing players due to last year's Ray Rice punching his then-fiance out and only giving him two games. Greg Hardy's 10 game suspension for domestic violence was reduced to four games, the same length as Brady. Yes obviously hitting a woman is a lot worse but as I wrote earlier (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/greg-hardys-suspension-reduced-to-4.html) Hardy is essentially suspended 19 games because he missed the last 15 games of last season as he was sat down by the Panthers.
The thing is not that they are looking for his phone as the Patriots did turn over all electronic data just not Brady's phone. That stupid laugh of Brady's the day after the story came out on Boston radio not only makes him guilty but makes me want to punch him or hit him with an object as hard as possible. Why does he destroy his phone instead of not turning it over? Why wouldn't he want to shove it in the league's face and the detractors that he didn't do it by showing his phone and clearing his name? Obviously he's guilty.
If nothing was done, how come the Patriots suspended the two employees who Brady made sure the balls were deflated to his liking? The Patriots accepted the $1 million fine and loss of draft picks (including next year's first round) without a fight as they basically want to end it, but they "did not cheat" according to Robert Kraft they just want it to end. Obviously, they knew they did something wrong or else they'd fight a lot harder. They believe they got off pretty light. However, Brady is making it so hard and ruining their credibility.
I think they want everyone to move on and want Brady to sit and take his suspension and prepare with either Jimmy Garoppolo or Matt Flynn in training camp and preseason in preparation for the first four games. They'd rather let the two QBs, preferably last year's 2nd round pick Garoppolo, prepare and get ready instead of having the suspension possibly moved to the middle or even end of the season where they might enter the games cold instead of full on preparation with a full training camp and preseason with the starters.
Why couldn't Brady be suspended longer? If I were the league, I'd suspend Brady for four games, but they are to start in the playoffs. If the Patriots play four playoff games, Brady is gone from every one of them. If they only play three playoff games, Brady is suspended for the opener the following season as the suspension carries over. If they play two, he misses the first two games the following season, and so on. He cheated in the playoffs and they won the Super Bowl as a result, he should not be allowed to play in the playoffs. I'd make an unusual penalty for Brady to show you don't do that to my game and my league.
The NFLPA is probably trying to push the suspension as long as possible by going to court so when it comes whenever it does, Brady can just retire as he will be 38 when the season starts. There's a chance Brady might play against the Bills Sept. 20 if it goes to court and it could allow him to play while the hearing is going on. I know Bills fans want to see Brady go against Rex Ryan and beat them in a game in which means more beating Brady then say Garoppolo.
My take on that is sure I'd like to beat Brady's smug and arrogant ass. But Brady beats the Bills as he is 23-3 with 58 touchdowns, just 19 interceptions, and a 101.2 QB Rating in 26 games all-time against the Bills. Last year after Brady struggled early in the year, I thought he was easy pickings for the Bills before he destroyed them in the second half of the game here and I made it a point never to assume we're just going to beat him even with an improved head coach.
Brady has struggled against Ryan more than any other head coach he's faced as he has a 61.8 QBR (73.4 against everyone else) and under 60% completion all-time against Ryan (65% all-time against everyone else) and the Patriots' yards and points per game drop significantly against Ryan's defense than everyone else. But he's still 9-4 all-time against Ryan because Ryan has had Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith at QB and Ryan still doesn't have a great QB here.
I want to beat Brady but I also want to win a game, especially in my division Brady or not, it still counts. Playing Garoppolo gives us the better chance to win than playing Brady and early in the season I want wins. This isn't anything like last year's season-finale where the game meant nothing for both teams, it means a lot for both. A win is a win and I'd rather win than face Brady with a good chance to lose. Besides, we'll play him later so we'll get a chance to see what Ryan and the Bills can do.
I have one more thing to say, why didn't Pete Carroll run Marshawn Lynch? This wouldn't be as bad if he ran the ball with Lynch and won the Super Bowl. I don't think I couldn't hate Carroll more than I do now and every time I see the Patriots, Brady, and especially if Brady gets off with less games or none, I'll always think back to the time Carroll decided to throw the football instead of run Lynch.
I see why Brady fights it because 1.) he doesn't want to miss games and try to clear his name which might never happen, and 2.) he knows he's Tom Brady and he can get away with anything. He's been getting away with stuff for 10-15 years. The Patriots cheat all the time and while they got punished for Spy Gate, they still got away with a not so harsh penalty which should have involved suspensions. They believe they are above the league and can do whatever they want and get away with it.
I don't know but I doubt the CBA has anything where the league can ask for your phone and you have to give it over. I bet it doesn't if it does Brady is screwed. If not, then the NFL can't prove even with the Wells Report and the looks of him cheating. But it appears they can't prove he did it if he went ahead and destroyed his phone instead of turning it over, therefore a settlement will probably be determined.
However, the CBA states Goodell has the ability to punish anyone who performs transgressions on the field and deflating footballs . Of course Goodell comes under intense scrutiny for punishing players due to last year's Ray Rice punching his then-fiance out and only giving him two games. Greg Hardy's 10 game suspension for domestic violence was reduced to four games, the same length as Brady. Yes obviously hitting a woman is a lot worse but as I wrote earlier (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/greg-hardys-suspension-reduced-to-4.html) Hardy is essentially suspended 19 games because he missed the last 15 games of last season as he was sat down by the Panthers.
The thing is not that they are looking for his phone as the Patriots did turn over all electronic data just not Brady's phone. That stupid laugh of Brady's the day after the story came out on Boston radio not only makes him guilty but makes me want to punch him or hit him with an object as hard as possible. Why does he destroy his phone instead of not turning it over? Why wouldn't he want to shove it in the league's face and the detractors that he didn't do it by showing his phone and clearing his name? Obviously he's guilty.
If nothing was done, how come the Patriots suspended the two employees who Brady made sure the balls were deflated to his liking? The Patriots accepted the $1 million fine and loss of draft picks (including next year's first round) without a fight as they basically want to end it, but they "did not cheat" according to Robert Kraft they just want it to end. Obviously, they knew they did something wrong or else they'd fight a lot harder. They believe they got off pretty light. However, Brady is making it so hard and ruining their credibility.
I think they want everyone to move on and want Brady to sit and take his suspension and prepare with either Jimmy Garoppolo or Matt Flynn in training camp and preseason in preparation for the first four games. They'd rather let the two QBs, preferably last year's 2nd round pick Garoppolo, prepare and get ready instead of having the suspension possibly moved to the middle or even end of the season where they might enter the games cold instead of full on preparation with a full training camp and preseason with the starters.
Why couldn't Brady be suspended longer? If I were the league, I'd suspend Brady for four games, but they are to start in the playoffs. If the Patriots play four playoff games, Brady is gone from every one of them. If they only play three playoff games, Brady is suspended for the opener the following season as the suspension carries over. If they play two, he misses the first two games the following season, and so on. He cheated in the playoffs and they won the Super Bowl as a result, he should not be allowed to play in the playoffs. I'd make an unusual penalty for Brady to show you don't do that to my game and my league.
The NFLPA is probably trying to push the suspension as long as possible by going to court so when it comes whenever it does, Brady can just retire as he will be 38 when the season starts. There's a chance Brady might play against the Bills Sept. 20 if it goes to court and it could allow him to play while the hearing is going on. I know Bills fans want to see Brady go against Rex Ryan and beat them in a game in which means more beating Brady then say Garoppolo.
My take on that is sure I'd like to beat Brady's smug and arrogant ass. But Brady beats the Bills as he is 23-3 with 58 touchdowns, just 19 interceptions, and a 101.2 QB Rating in 26 games all-time against the Bills. Last year after Brady struggled early in the year, I thought he was easy pickings for the Bills before he destroyed them in the second half of the game here and I made it a point never to assume we're just going to beat him even with an improved head coach.
Brady has struggled against Ryan more than any other head coach he's faced as he has a 61.8 QBR (73.4 against everyone else) and under 60% completion all-time against Ryan (65% all-time against everyone else) and the Patriots' yards and points per game drop significantly against Ryan's defense than everyone else. But he's still 9-4 all-time against Ryan because Ryan has had Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith at QB and Ryan still doesn't have a great QB here.
I want to beat Brady but I also want to win a game, especially in my division Brady or not, it still counts. Playing Garoppolo gives us the better chance to win than playing Brady and early in the season I want wins. This isn't anything like last year's season-finale where the game meant nothing for both teams, it means a lot for both. A win is a win and I'd rather win than face Brady with a good chance to lose. Besides, we'll play him later so we'll get a chance to see what Ryan and the Bills can do.
I have one more thing to say, why didn't Pete Carroll run Marshawn Lynch? This wouldn't be as bad if he ran the ball with Lynch and won the Super Bowl. I don't think I couldn't hate Carroll more than I do now and every time I see the Patriots, Brady, and especially if Brady gets off with less games or none, I'll always think back to the time Carroll decided to throw the football instead of run Lynch.
Monday, July 27, 2015
Shocking Ted Black Out; Russ Brandon In as President of the Sabres
Much to the shock of myself, the Sabres announced they parted ways with team president Ted Black and replacing him with current Buffalo Bills President Russ Brandon. Brandon now is the President of both Buffalo pro sports teams. Why not? Both are owned by Terry and Kim Pegula and they must have loved the job Brandon did with the Bills, running the business side of that team for 18 years.
I know many around dislike Brandon and the job he's done with the Bills as evidenced by their 15 year playoff drought. Now Russ might be responsible a little bit but he's not totally to blame for terrible ownership running this team into the ground in Ralph's last decade and a half as owner with all due respect to Mr. Wilson. All Brandon did was run the business Mr. Wilson wanted it be run and he made the team very profitable. He gets credit albeit a little too much credit for selling this franchise and selling tickets to a team that's terrible.
The reason I say too much credit is because this is Buffalo and fans are Bills crazy and sadly there's not much else to do in late fall early winter then go to or watch Bills football on Sunday. I think I can sell the team to this fan base too. Try selling a fan base to Jacksonville or Tampa or Miami or San Diego where there's beautiful weather all year and more to do.
If the Toronto series did make the team more profitable to buy and keep the team here then fine it was a success. I think we can all no longer talk about Toronto. Many don't like or trust him for the Toronto series and neither do I to a point. As long as he's not running the hockey department, like he's no longer running the football department of the Bills, and simply just running the team as a business we'll be fine.
I did not like the job he did as President of the Bills when he replaced Ralph Wilson on January 1, 2013. He hired Doug Marrone after an "extensive coaching search" all of five days and then made sure he signed here over Cleveland by putting in an opt clause where he can leave three days after the season ended in a season in which an ownership change occurred. Why does he get such a deal for being a .500 coach in Syracuse? Russ dropped the ball on that one but thankfully to a point he did or else we wouldn't have Rex Ryan so half-thank you Russ.
He also did a pretty poor job as the Bills GM in 2008-09, but was he really that much worse than our past GMs? Was he so much worse than Marv Levy or Buddy Nix or Tom Donahoe? He did just as good as them while yes Aaron Maybin and James Hardy were awful, really awful.
But he did get Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd, and Stevie Johnson in his two drafts. So it's a wash just like other GMs some good picks, some bad picks, some awful picks. He did also sign Terrell Owens too. As you know my feelings on GMs no one is better or worse at picking a player it's all a crap shoot and everyone is 50-50 except for those who have a franchise QB.
One thing he did not do which could have made or break his GM career and that's draft a Quarterback. Trent Edwards was already on the roster and he didn't do anything to draft or get a QB in the offseason. His tenure could have been spectacular had he gotten the right QB or Edwards became the guy or it could have been a disaster where Donahoe, Levy, and Nix's tenure was.
Finding the right QB can make any GM look good and you don't have to be a "football guy." Sometimes being a football guy is even worse because you think you know all this crap while the entire draft and QB is nothing but a crap shoot.
It's a gamble and a coin flip. Those who get the coin flip right will be a GM for life and missing the coin flip means you will be fired. He wasn't great but not terrible, he was about the same maybe even slightly better than the other GMs during this playoff drought. All that matters really is who is your QB and any GM is amazing or terrible based on how good or bad the QB is.
One thing reportedly the Pegulas do like about Brandon and that helped make him the President of the Sabres. That was after the season ended and Marrone left, Brandon and Doug Whaley contacted various head coaching candidates and setup interviews as quickly as possible. That impressed both Terry and Kim Pegula, especially getting Rex Ryan in for an interview and the rest is history.
I don't know the whole detail behind Black's departure nor will I pretend like I know. Black did a great job every week coming on WGR 550 and listening to fans call in and voice their satisfaction or displeasure. Black was also good at taking emails and getting back to as many fans as he could, which was a lot. He made sure he handled fan emails about what to do at the arena and improve the team with a lot of respect. He cared a lot about the opinions of the fans and how to make the team and arena better.
Black was really good at letting season ticket holders know what their plan on rebuilding was by sending them a letter that detailed how important getting first round picks, really highly drafted first round picks were to success of teams around the NHL.
He detailed how much percentage of goals are scored by players drafted in the first two rounds, then by how big of a percentage were scored simply by first round picks, and then how much of a large percentage of goals scored in the NHL by players picked in the top-3-5 picks and why it was so important that the Sabres get to where they finished to get high draft picks. He also outlined the success of teams with a great amount of top-3 picks. I liked Ted Black and wish him the best in his future endeavors but I guess it's time to move on.
The Sabres, Bills, and mostly the Pegulas show they aren't thinking the past or or going old guard like a lot of teams even here in the past (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/lou-lamoriello-shockingly-new-toronto.html). They are full of fresh, new ideas which is what this area needs.
I know many around dislike Brandon and the job he's done with the Bills as evidenced by their 15 year playoff drought. Now Russ might be responsible a little bit but he's not totally to blame for terrible ownership running this team into the ground in Ralph's last decade and a half as owner with all due respect to Mr. Wilson. All Brandon did was run the business Mr. Wilson wanted it be run and he made the team very profitable. He gets credit albeit a little too much credit for selling this franchise and selling tickets to a team that's terrible.
The reason I say too much credit is because this is Buffalo and fans are Bills crazy and sadly there's not much else to do in late fall early winter then go to or watch Bills football on Sunday. I think I can sell the team to this fan base too. Try selling a fan base to Jacksonville or Tampa or Miami or San Diego where there's beautiful weather all year and more to do.
If the Toronto series did make the team more profitable to buy and keep the team here then fine it was a success. I think we can all no longer talk about Toronto. Many don't like or trust him for the Toronto series and neither do I to a point. As long as he's not running the hockey department, like he's no longer running the football department of the Bills, and simply just running the team as a business we'll be fine.
I did not like the job he did as President of the Bills when he replaced Ralph Wilson on January 1, 2013. He hired Doug Marrone after an "extensive coaching search" all of five days and then made sure he signed here over Cleveland by putting in an opt clause where he can leave three days after the season ended in a season in which an ownership change occurred. Why does he get such a deal for being a .500 coach in Syracuse? Russ dropped the ball on that one but thankfully to a point he did or else we wouldn't have Rex Ryan so half-thank you Russ.
He also did a pretty poor job as the Bills GM in 2008-09, but was he really that much worse than our past GMs? Was he so much worse than Marv Levy or Buddy Nix or Tom Donahoe? He did just as good as them while yes Aaron Maybin and James Hardy were awful, really awful.
But he did get Eric Wood, Andy Levitre, Jairus Byrd, and Stevie Johnson in his two drafts. So it's a wash just like other GMs some good picks, some bad picks, some awful picks. He did also sign Terrell Owens too. As you know my feelings on GMs no one is better or worse at picking a player it's all a crap shoot and everyone is 50-50 except for those who have a franchise QB.
One thing he did not do which could have made or break his GM career and that's draft a Quarterback. Trent Edwards was already on the roster and he didn't do anything to draft or get a QB in the offseason. His tenure could have been spectacular had he gotten the right QB or Edwards became the guy or it could have been a disaster where Donahoe, Levy, and Nix's tenure was.
Finding the right QB can make any GM look good and you don't have to be a "football guy." Sometimes being a football guy is even worse because you think you know all this crap while the entire draft and QB is nothing but a crap shoot.
It's a gamble and a coin flip. Those who get the coin flip right will be a GM for life and missing the coin flip means you will be fired. He wasn't great but not terrible, he was about the same maybe even slightly better than the other GMs during this playoff drought. All that matters really is who is your QB and any GM is amazing or terrible based on how good or bad the QB is.
One thing reportedly the Pegulas do like about Brandon and that helped make him the President of the Sabres. That was after the season ended and Marrone left, Brandon and Doug Whaley contacted various head coaching candidates and setup interviews as quickly as possible. That impressed both Terry and Kim Pegula, especially getting Rex Ryan in for an interview and the rest is history.
I don't know the whole detail behind Black's departure nor will I pretend like I know. Black did a great job every week coming on WGR 550 and listening to fans call in and voice their satisfaction or displeasure. Black was also good at taking emails and getting back to as many fans as he could, which was a lot. He made sure he handled fan emails about what to do at the arena and improve the team with a lot of respect. He cared a lot about the opinions of the fans and how to make the team and arena better.
Black was really good at letting season ticket holders know what their plan on rebuilding was by sending them a letter that detailed how important getting first round picks, really highly drafted first round picks were to success of teams around the NHL.
He detailed how much percentage of goals are scored by players drafted in the first two rounds, then by how big of a percentage were scored simply by first round picks, and then how much of a large percentage of goals scored in the NHL by players picked in the top-3-5 picks and why it was so important that the Sabres get to where they finished to get high draft picks. He also outlined the success of teams with a great amount of top-3 picks. I liked Ted Black and wish him the best in his future endeavors but I guess it's time to move on.
The Sabres, Bills, and mostly the Pegulas show they aren't thinking the past or or going old guard like a lot of teams even here in the past (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/lou-lamoriello-shockingly-new-toronto.html). They are full of fresh, new ideas which is what this area needs.
The 49ers Should Look into Trading Colin Kaepernick; There is still a big Market for Him
It's no secret that Colin Kaepernick has fallen over the last year since he replaced Alex Smith three years ago and took the team to the Super Bowl his first year and the NFC Championship Game his second before falling to 8-8 with a down year. He's tied for 18th in this Mike Sando QB rankings article (http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348). Kaepernick has shown flashes of brilliance as a playmaker, but has also shown inaccuaracy and immaturity. His quarterback rating and QBR has fallen steadily each of his three seasons and dropped from 14th in the rankings the previous year to tied for 18th this year in this article. He'll never be an elite or even a "franchise QB."
That does not mean however that there is not a place for Kaepernick in the NFL and there are some teams who could use Kaepernick and his mobility and strong arm more than the current starting QB(s) that they have. Cleveland definitely would and should get him over their bums in Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Houston definitely as well with that talented roster, he's much better than Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.
Washington could because they need to move on from RGIII, I think Kaepernick is better. But Washington will be terrible and will likely be challenging for the first pick of the draft and will draft their next QB. The New York Jets are another team Kaepernick would a very good option for with that defense and bringing in Brandon Marshall. He is definitely much better than either Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Plus I wanted to see what Kaepernick could have done in Chan Gailey's offense when Gailey was here as I wanted them to draft Kaepernick.
I'm not advocating the Bills trade for Kaepernick (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/which-qb-would-you-trade-dareus-for.html) but I would definitely bring him in here for the right price. He's definitely better than E.J. Manuel, Matt Cassel, and Tyrod Taylor that's for sure. With this defense, he could hopefully do things like he did in San Francisco and take this team to the playoffs. I doubt they would bring him in and who knows how he and Greg Roman's relationship is after Roman got fired because Kaepernick regressed last season.
I do think the 49ers should trade him and get whatever they can while they can fetch a pretty good price. I know he's declining but there is always a market for a QB who's taken his team to the Super Bowl and NFC Championship Game back-to-back seasons who's still better than 40% of the starting QBs in the NFL. Why should the 49ers trade him if he's still a pretty decent QB? Kaepernick is decent but not an elite QB and they should try to look to get better at the game's most important position. You can do worse, but you can try and do a lot better as well. Plus Kaepernick makes a ton of money thanks to last year's contract.
Another reason why they should trade him is I believe the 49ers will be one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be challenging for the top pick in the draft. That's even with Kaepernick as starting QB. Why not move on from him while he still has value and completely bottom out for one of the top QBs in this year's draft such as Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, and Cardale Jones? If Kaepernick is still there and they go 4-12, his market value is all but shot. Now you can probably get a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd round pick for Kaepernick.
The 49ers are a mess with many of the players from their Super Bowl team in 2012 either leaving in free agency, traded, or flat out retired along with a QB that has regressed when he was the talk of the town after replacing an injured Alex Smith. The talent level might now be one of the worst in the league (certainly a lot worse than the team across the Golden Gate Bridge the Oakland Raiders) so they're in line for one of the top picks in the draft. They need to start over and should look for the franchise QB that can take this team to the Super Bowl. I think it's best to start over and give Kaepernick a change of scenery. If this team was built to win now then of course keep Kaepernick. But it's not and try something else.
Of course there's this thing where Jim Harbaugh was fired because of an idiot GM in Trent Baalke that can't work with him. Harbaugh is an ass and a weirdo but he's won. Deal with it. He might be hard to work with and can wear people out but remember how terrible you guys were for a decade before he came here. They replaced a great coach with this guy Jim Tomsula.
In case you don't know who he is watch these two videos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1MQJ0JKIxQ) (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/new-49ers-head-coach-gets-a-little-grunty-in-his-first-interview-231453338.html?pt=tAD4SCT8P72012-08-02.html/). Doesn't this guy inspire you? Baalke should have been fired for thinking he should have fired Harbaugh especially knowing you are hiring this guy to replace him. What a difference between his and Rex Ryan's press conferences.
Apparently he doesn't want to "play the name game." Why? The name game is fun! Also his thing where he says he doesn't (or doesn't he say doesn't) want to say names out of "respect to those people." What are these people dead? What the heck does he mean by that? You don't say out of respect for (fill in name) unless it's a tragedy and coaching changes aren't a tragedy. It's not like he can't say a certain name because that guy is under contract. The interviewer was asking about Marc Trestman, who was fired by the Bears right after the season and wasn't under contract so he could mention him.
More bad PR as the 49ers continue to fail in this department when owner Jed York somewhat compared Tomsula to Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr (http://jimrome.com/2015/07/22/the-next-steve-kerr/). He did make it a point to point out how the fellow NBA Bay Area team fired a good coach in it's own right in Mark Jackson,who helped bring the Warriors back to the promised land if you will by taking a team that was a joke for over two decades to making the playoffs in back to back years, to replace him with a coach who wasn't a head coach ever.
Fans must have been furious firing a head coach who's taken their team to places they haven't been in 25 years or so, but management to their credit felt they could have done better. I guess winning a league-high 67 games and winning the first NBA title for the team in 40 years is a little better. I guess Harbaugh is being compared to Jackson and Tomsula is being compared to Kerr. That's wrong in so many ways and I don't have to explain them, you know them. Harbaugh did turn around the 49ers quickly like Jackson did with the Warriors, but Harbaugh did more and went further in the postseason than Jackson did.
Kerr won numerous NBA championships as a player, playing and learning from the best coach in NBA history in Phil Jackson. Tomsula was coaching in no name colleges and NFL Europe. Kerr was a GM for three years with the Phoenix Suns as well as spent numerous years as a TV analyst for NBA games. Tomsula could barely analyze a Burger King menu and he never did anything but be a defensive line coach, not a coordinator not an assistant head coach.
Oh I am sorry, he was an interim head coach for the 49ers for the last game of the 2010 season when he replaced the fired Mike Singletary (remember how terrible he was?) and then was kept on as defensive line coach by Harbaugh. Kerr also has the two best shooters in the NBA while Tomsula lost a ton of talent. Close York but no cigar!
I don't know why but I would bet money that Tomsula is punt on 4th down, play field position coach. Call me crazy it's just a silly hunch. Enjoy San Francisco, this is who you have leading your team right now. I bet you miss Harbaugh badly and the season hasn't even started.
That does not mean however that there is not a place for Kaepernick in the NFL and there are some teams who could use Kaepernick and his mobility and strong arm more than the current starting QB(s) that they have. Cleveland definitely would and should get him over their bums in Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Houston definitely as well with that talented roster, he's much better than Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.
Washington could because they need to move on from RGIII, I think Kaepernick is better. But Washington will be terrible and will likely be challenging for the first pick of the draft and will draft their next QB. The New York Jets are another team Kaepernick would a very good option for with that defense and bringing in Brandon Marshall. He is definitely much better than either Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Plus I wanted to see what Kaepernick could have done in Chan Gailey's offense when Gailey was here as I wanted them to draft Kaepernick.
I'm not advocating the Bills trade for Kaepernick (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/which-qb-would-you-trade-dareus-for.html) but I would definitely bring him in here for the right price. He's definitely better than E.J. Manuel, Matt Cassel, and Tyrod Taylor that's for sure. With this defense, he could hopefully do things like he did in San Francisco and take this team to the playoffs. I doubt they would bring him in and who knows how he and Greg Roman's relationship is after Roman got fired because Kaepernick regressed last season.
I do think the 49ers should trade him and get whatever they can while they can fetch a pretty good price. I know he's declining but there is always a market for a QB who's taken his team to the Super Bowl and NFC Championship Game back-to-back seasons who's still better than 40% of the starting QBs in the NFL. Why should the 49ers trade him if he's still a pretty decent QB? Kaepernick is decent but not an elite QB and they should try to look to get better at the game's most important position. You can do worse, but you can try and do a lot better as well. Plus Kaepernick makes a ton of money thanks to last year's contract.
Another reason why they should trade him is I believe the 49ers will be one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be challenging for the top pick in the draft. That's even with Kaepernick as starting QB. Why not move on from him while he still has value and completely bottom out for one of the top QBs in this year's draft such as Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, and Cardale Jones? If Kaepernick is still there and they go 4-12, his market value is all but shot. Now you can probably get a 3rd, maybe even a 2nd round pick for Kaepernick.
The 49ers are a mess with many of the players from their Super Bowl team in 2012 either leaving in free agency, traded, or flat out retired along with a QB that has regressed when he was the talk of the town after replacing an injured Alex Smith. The talent level might now be one of the worst in the league (certainly a lot worse than the team across the Golden Gate Bridge the Oakland Raiders) so they're in line for one of the top picks in the draft. They need to start over and should look for the franchise QB that can take this team to the Super Bowl. I think it's best to start over and give Kaepernick a change of scenery. If this team was built to win now then of course keep Kaepernick. But it's not and try something else.
Of course there's this thing where Jim Harbaugh was fired because of an idiot GM in Trent Baalke that can't work with him. Harbaugh is an ass and a weirdo but he's won. Deal with it. He might be hard to work with and can wear people out but remember how terrible you guys were for a decade before he came here. They replaced a great coach with this guy Jim Tomsula.
In case you don't know who he is watch these two videos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1MQJ0JKIxQ) (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/new-49ers-head-coach-gets-a-little-grunty-in-his-first-interview-231453338.html?pt=tAD4SCT8P72012-08-02.html/). Doesn't this guy inspire you? Baalke should have been fired for thinking he should have fired Harbaugh especially knowing you are hiring this guy to replace him. What a difference between his and Rex Ryan's press conferences.
Apparently he doesn't want to "play the name game." Why? The name game is fun! Also his thing where he says he doesn't (or doesn't he say doesn't) want to say names out of "respect to those people." What are these people dead? What the heck does he mean by that? You don't say out of respect for (fill in name) unless it's a tragedy and coaching changes aren't a tragedy. It's not like he can't say a certain name because that guy is under contract. The interviewer was asking about Marc Trestman, who was fired by the Bears right after the season and wasn't under contract so he could mention him.
More bad PR as the 49ers continue to fail in this department when owner Jed York somewhat compared Tomsula to Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr (http://jimrome.com/2015/07/22/the-next-steve-kerr/). He did make it a point to point out how the fellow NBA Bay Area team fired a good coach in it's own right in Mark Jackson,who helped bring the Warriors back to the promised land if you will by taking a team that was a joke for over two decades to making the playoffs in back to back years, to replace him with a coach who wasn't a head coach ever.
Fans must have been furious firing a head coach who's taken their team to places they haven't been in 25 years or so, but management to their credit felt they could have done better. I guess winning a league-high 67 games and winning the first NBA title for the team in 40 years is a little better. I guess Harbaugh is being compared to Jackson and Tomsula is being compared to Kerr. That's wrong in so many ways and I don't have to explain them, you know them. Harbaugh did turn around the 49ers quickly like Jackson did with the Warriors, but Harbaugh did more and went further in the postseason than Jackson did.
Kerr won numerous NBA championships as a player, playing and learning from the best coach in NBA history in Phil Jackson. Tomsula was coaching in no name colleges and NFL Europe. Kerr was a GM for three years with the Phoenix Suns as well as spent numerous years as a TV analyst for NBA games. Tomsula could barely analyze a Burger King menu and he never did anything but be a defensive line coach, not a coordinator not an assistant head coach.
Oh I am sorry, he was an interim head coach for the 49ers for the last game of the 2010 season when he replaced the fired Mike Singletary (remember how terrible he was?) and then was kept on as defensive line coach by Harbaugh. Kerr also has the two best shooters in the NBA while Tomsula lost a ton of talent. Close York but no cigar!
I don't know why but I would bet money that Tomsula is punt on 4th down, play field position coach. Call me crazy it's just a silly hunch. Enjoy San Francisco, this is who you have leading your team right now. I bet you miss Harbaugh badly and the season hasn't even started.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Which QB Would You Trade Dareus for?
Marcell Dareus is currently working on a contract extension with the Buffalo Bills (http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/bills-marcell-dareus-talking-contract-extention-dt-focused-on-football-072415).
He is in the final year of his contract as the Bills picked up his fifth year option for this year. Dareus is expected to make somewhere between the six year $95 million deal Gerald McCoy got and the $114 million deal for six years Ndamukong Suh signed this offseason with Miami with roughly between $55-60 million guaranteed.
He's up there with Suh and McCoy for best defensive tackles in the league. He's better than McCoy and is on par with Suh. In fact, Dareus has 28.5 sacks in his first four years compared to 27.5 for Suh in his first four years and McCoy had just 18.5. Hall of famer and one of the best defensive tackles to ever play the game, Warren Sapp, had 29.5 sacks his first 4 years in the league. So you can tell how great Dareus is.
The Bills are expected to have a great defense like they've had the last two seasons and it should be even greater with Rex Ryan taking over. The defense could be number one overall this season with a healthy Dareus (who will be suspended for the opener for violating the league's substance abuse policy).
It got me thinking however as to how good will the defense be if Dareus wasn't on the roster? I'm thinking what do the Bills need more than Dareus and the number one ranked defense? Shouldn't be a surprise as the answer is quarterback.
Dareus is the best player on this defense but it will be tough to have two $100 million men on the defense (although I expect them to restructure Mario Williams). I still think the defense would be more than capable without Dareus. Isn't that one of the reasons you hired Rex in the first place to run the defense?
He should be able to make this a top-10, maybe even top-5. I know you can't just get rid of everyone and give him garbage and say ok Rex make this the number one defense in the league. I get that. But he needs a QB badly as he can do whatever on the defense even if it were missing their top players while the QB can also help overcome the loss of a really talented football player. That's the whole point of this exercise to figure out how much Dareus is worth in terms of QB.
I doubt that the Bills could trade Dareus for a qb because who would trade a great QB for a defensive player, no matter how great that defensive player and one who's contract is about to expire after this season? To get one of the top QBs you'd have to trade an entire defense, which they would say no to. But let's pretend we can trade Dareus for any QB in the league. In that case, who do you want?
I'll use this Mike Sando ESPN article (http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348) where he ranks QBs in tiers 1, 2, 3, and 4. I'll list QBs and see how far we will go to trade Dareus for a QB.
Let's make this one quick, tier 1 (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees). We can all agree we'd trade Dareus for anyone of these, even Manning who's on his way out but still can get you into the playoffs as a top seed regardless of whether or not he can still win a Super Bowl or not.
Manning might be the only one in this list I might say no because he's a bit on the decline but I'll still say yes as I'll take even one-two seasons like last: 4,724 yard, 39 touchdowns, 7.9 yards per attempt, and 101.5 QB Rating. Give this team with this talent those numbers and you're in contention for the Super Bowl.
Tier 2 (Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Cam Newton). Now you can debate some guys on this list more than others but for me, I need a QB badly and I'd even trade Dareus for anyone on this list because while these guys need might need some more help to win games than tier 1, they are still so much better than what the Bills currently have or have had since Jim Kelly.
There are more I'd rather have than others. I'd really like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, and especially Ryan, who I think is very good and I am a huge fan despite the lack of love for him around the league. Flacco doesn't put up eye popping numbers in the regular season, but man when it comes to the playoffs he's money, the complete opposite of Peyton Manning.
Peyton's brother Eli is a lot like Flacco but lately has struggled badly in the regular season whereas Flacco still gets the team into the playoffs. Manning did have a bounce back year last year thanks to a new offensive coordinator and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr.
Both Rivers and Eli are entering the final year of their contracts as I would expect both the Chargers and Giants to be working out contract extensions for both as both are in talks about new contracts. However, if one if not both are prepared to move (which I doubt but let's see) on from them, then Dareus could definitely be in play and I'd be willing to get one of the two, preferably Rivers.
Wilson is similar as well where he won't wow you and needs the defense and Marshawn Lynch to help but he makes big plays in big moments when it matters the most. He plays his best ball in November, December and January, where his QB Rating is over 100 combined. Even September and October his QB Rating is in the mid 90s as his career rating is 98.6.
He puts up much better numbers than people give him credit for because of Lynch and the defense, but he doesn't have elite weapons to throw to either and he puts up decent numbers regardless. He won't necessarily win a game on his own, or at least we don't know that until they lose some players because he will get a ton of money. Only time will tell. But he's not garbage either although I am sick of hearing about his contract.
Stafford is good, not elite but good much better than anything the Bills have. Stafford does have Megatron but he doesn't also just have Megatron. He had a 5,000 yard, 41 touchdown season in 2011 and last time I checked, Megatron did not catch all 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.
He's had close to 5,000 yard seasons a couple of times since, but his TD numbers declined. His overall numbers declined last year, but they had a great defense and had injuries to Megatron, which affected him. Stafford also makes a lot of mistakes and turns the ball over, but he's a gun slinger.
Newton also makes some mistakes and can be inaccurate at times. Much like Wilson, he can run very well and needs a good defense and running game. Last year, he did help the Panthers win the division with the top 4-5 receivers from the previous year's team gone and has a terrible coach and front office and offensive line.
These guys can't win games on their own without a little help, but the help is here in Buffalo. I am still pretty high on Newton and am a big Newton fan. No offense Dareus, I wish the Bills lost two more games in 2010 so we could have the #1 overall pick and drafted Newton instead. Dareus is great but the QB is more important.
Now we're on to tier 3 and I wouldn't trade Dareus for any of these QBs and tier 4, yeah no thanks. You couldn't trade them to us for nothing. Ok exceptions of course being Carson Palmer if he's healthy he's still really good. Palmer was 6-0 as the starter until he was injured and is 13-2 in his last 15 starts over the last two years. If he's healthy, then yes I'll trade Dareus for him as I still think Palmer is very good. I'd gamble anyway.
Andy Dalton might be of some interest but to me I feel a lot is the talent around him. He's not bad although he had a down year last but two years ago he threw 33 touchdowns. I still think he's pretty good but most of it his team surrounding him that probably makes him better than he is. I'd say at this point no thanks.
I'd consider trading Dareus for Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, or Marcus Mariota despite them being rookies or second-year players because I think they are all possible franchise QBs. I'd consider trading Dareus for a package to move up for either Winston or Mariota this year if they were available which neither Tampa nor Tennessee would trade them.
I'd say no right now on Blake Bortles as he needs a lot of work to show he can be a franchise QB. He does play on one of if not the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville and that could be a reason for the struggles. Of course he's shown me very little at this point to make this trade and consider him a franchise QB. Of course we'll see over time what comes of this. No to Johnny Manziel btw.
This isn't I want Dareus traded, it's I'd only trade him for a top notch QB, even a "tier 2" QB that could take this team to the playoffs with a 11-5, 12-4 record. Dareus isn't worth trading unless it's a top-10, 12 QB in the NFL, that's it.
Nothing else, no lineman, no running back, no receiver, no tight end, nor draft pick (unless it's a top-5 pick for a potential QB) is worth it. Dareus is worth a big time QB so let's get this deal done as no QB will be available.
I must explain about Brady and Peyton Manning some more. I would trade for Brady and Manning, or should I say the caliber of them in their best days, not so much now because they're going to be 38 and 39 years old.
Despite Brady being an arrogant douchebag and a jackass, I still would take him in his prime or even right now as he's still really good. Manning is a shell of his former self but I'd trade for the Manning even two years ago where had a record-breaking season.
As long as I got a few good years from them, then sure I'd risk trading a star like Dareus. Otherwise, I'd stick with Dareus.
He is in the final year of his contract as the Bills picked up his fifth year option for this year. Dareus is expected to make somewhere between the six year $95 million deal Gerald McCoy got and the $114 million deal for six years Ndamukong Suh signed this offseason with Miami with roughly between $55-60 million guaranteed.
He's up there with Suh and McCoy for best defensive tackles in the league. He's better than McCoy and is on par with Suh. In fact, Dareus has 28.5 sacks in his first four years compared to 27.5 for Suh in his first four years and McCoy had just 18.5. Hall of famer and one of the best defensive tackles to ever play the game, Warren Sapp, had 29.5 sacks his first 4 years in the league. So you can tell how great Dareus is.
The Bills are expected to have a great defense like they've had the last two seasons and it should be even greater with Rex Ryan taking over. The defense could be number one overall this season with a healthy Dareus (who will be suspended for the opener for violating the league's substance abuse policy).
It got me thinking however as to how good will the defense be if Dareus wasn't on the roster? I'm thinking what do the Bills need more than Dareus and the number one ranked defense? Shouldn't be a surprise as the answer is quarterback.
Dareus is the best player on this defense but it will be tough to have two $100 million men on the defense (although I expect them to restructure Mario Williams). I still think the defense would be more than capable without Dareus. Isn't that one of the reasons you hired Rex in the first place to run the defense?
He should be able to make this a top-10, maybe even top-5. I know you can't just get rid of everyone and give him garbage and say ok Rex make this the number one defense in the league. I get that. But he needs a QB badly as he can do whatever on the defense even if it were missing their top players while the QB can also help overcome the loss of a really talented football player. That's the whole point of this exercise to figure out how much Dareus is worth in terms of QB.
I doubt that the Bills could trade Dareus for a qb because who would trade a great QB for a defensive player, no matter how great that defensive player and one who's contract is about to expire after this season? To get one of the top QBs you'd have to trade an entire defense, which they would say no to. But let's pretend we can trade Dareus for any QB in the league. In that case, who do you want?
I'll use this Mike Sando ESPN article (http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2015-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=32652348) where he ranks QBs in tiers 1, 2, 3, and 4. I'll list QBs and see how far we will go to trade Dareus for a QB.
Let's make this one quick, tier 1 (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees). We can all agree we'd trade Dareus for anyone of these, even Manning who's on his way out but still can get you into the playoffs as a top seed regardless of whether or not he can still win a Super Bowl or not.
Manning might be the only one in this list I might say no because he's a bit on the decline but I'll still say yes as I'll take even one-two seasons like last: 4,724 yard, 39 touchdowns, 7.9 yards per attempt, and 101.5 QB Rating. Give this team with this talent those numbers and you're in contention for the Super Bowl.
Tier 2 (Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Cam Newton). Now you can debate some guys on this list more than others but for me, I need a QB badly and I'd even trade Dareus for anyone on this list because while these guys need might need some more help to win games than tier 1, they are still so much better than what the Bills currently have or have had since Jim Kelly.
There are more I'd rather have than others. I'd really like Rivers, Romo, Flacco, and especially Ryan, who I think is very good and I am a huge fan despite the lack of love for him around the league. Flacco doesn't put up eye popping numbers in the regular season, but man when it comes to the playoffs he's money, the complete opposite of Peyton Manning.
Peyton's brother Eli is a lot like Flacco but lately has struggled badly in the regular season whereas Flacco still gets the team into the playoffs. Manning did have a bounce back year last year thanks to a new offensive coordinator and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr.
Both Rivers and Eli are entering the final year of their contracts as I would expect both the Chargers and Giants to be working out contract extensions for both as both are in talks about new contracts. However, if one if not both are prepared to move (which I doubt but let's see) on from them, then Dareus could definitely be in play and I'd be willing to get one of the two, preferably Rivers.
Wilson is similar as well where he won't wow you and needs the defense and Marshawn Lynch to help but he makes big plays in big moments when it matters the most. He plays his best ball in November, December and January, where his QB Rating is over 100 combined. Even September and October his QB Rating is in the mid 90s as his career rating is 98.6.
He puts up much better numbers than people give him credit for because of Lynch and the defense, but he doesn't have elite weapons to throw to either and he puts up decent numbers regardless. He won't necessarily win a game on his own, or at least we don't know that until they lose some players because he will get a ton of money. Only time will tell. But he's not garbage either although I am sick of hearing about his contract.
Stafford is good, not elite but good much better than anything the Bills have. Stafford does have Megatron but he doesn't also just have Megatron. He had a 5,000 yard, 41 touchdown season in 2011 and last time I checked, Megatron did not catch all 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.
He's had close to 5,000 yard seasons a couple of times since, but his TD numbers declined. His overall numbers declined last year, but they had a great defense and had injuries to Megatron, which affected him. Stafford also makes a lot of mistakes and turns the ball over, but he's a gun slinger.
Newton also makes some mistakes and can be inaccurate at times. Much like Wilson, he can run very well and needs a good defense and running game. Last year, he did help the Panthers win the division with the top 4-5 receivers from the previous year's team gone and has a terrible coach and front office and offensive line.
These guys can't win games on their own without a little help, but the help is here in Buffalo. I am still pretty high on Newton and am a big Newton fan. No offense Dareus, I wish the Bills lost two more games in 2010 so we could have the #1 overall pick and drafted Newton instead. Dareus is great but the QB is more important.
Now we're on to tier 3 and I wouldn't trade Dareus for any of these QBs and tier 4, yeah no thanks. You couldn't trade them to us for nothing. Ok exceptions of course being Carson Palmer if he's healthy he's still really good. Palmer was 6-0 as the starter until he was injured and is 13-2 in his last 15 starts over the last two years. If he's healthy, then yes I'll trade Dareus for him as I still think Palmer is very good. I'd gamble anyway.
Andy Dalton might be of some interest but to me I feel a lot is the talent around him. He's not bad although he had a down year last but two years ago he threw 33 touchdowns. I still think he's pretty good but most of it his team surrounding him that probably makes him better than he is. I'd say at this point no thanks.
I'd consider trading Dareus for Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, or Marcus Mariota despite them being rookies or second-year players because I think they are all possible franchise QBs. I'd consider trading Dareus for a package to move up for either Winston or Mariota this year if they were available which neither Tampa nor Tennessee would trade them.
I'd say no right now on Blake Bortles as he needs a lot of work to show he can be a franchise QB. He does play on one of if not the worst team in the NFL in Jacksonville and that could be a reason for the struggles. Of course he's shown me very little at this point to make this trade and consider him a franchise QB. Of course we'll see over time what comes of this. No to Johnny Manziel btw.
This isn't I want Dareus traded, it's I'd only trade him for a top notch QB, even a "tier 2" QB that could take this team to the playoffs with a 11-5, 12-4 record. Dareus isn't worth trading unless it's a top-10, 12 QB in the NFL, that's it.
Nothing else, no lineman, no running back, no receiver, no tight end, nor draft pick (unless it's a top-5 pick for a potential QB) is worth it. Dareus is worth a big time QB so let's get this deal done as no QB will be available.
I must explain about Brady and Peyton Manning some more. I would trade for Brady and Manning, or should I say the caliber of them in their best days, not so much now because they're going to be 38 and 39 years old.
Despite Brady being an arrogant douchebag and a jackass, I still would take him in his prime or even right now as he's still really good. Manning is a shell of his former self but I'd trade for the Manning even two years ago where had a record-breaking season.
As long as I got a few good years from them, then sure I'd risk trading a star like Dareus. Otherwise, I'd stick with Dareus.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Lou Lamoriello shockingly New Toronto GM; he's been great but I'm glad we have a younger progressive gm instead of a dinosaur
Yesterday it was shocking to announce that the Toronto Maple Leafs hired former longtime New Jersey Devils General Manager Lou Lamoriello as their new GM. Lamoriello had been the GM of the Devils since 1987, before stepping down this past May but remained team president before leaving to go to the Leafs.
Lamoriello is a hall of fame GM for building the Devils into a Cup contender for most of his 28 years on the job. They missed the playoffs only six times since he's been there (although four times have occurred in his last five seasons there) and have won the Stanley Cup three times while losing twice more in 2001 and 2012.
Lamoriello is a living legend if you will and his time in New Jersey should be celebrated minus the fact if you are like myself, you hated the Devils and their stupid Neutral Zone Trap which helped really ruin the game of hockey. Nevertheless, the Leafs are doing something teams especially a big market like Toronto tend to do and that's reach for the past.
Of course Buffalo teams were really good at that but thankfully under the Pegula ownership, both Bills and Sabres are no longer doing that (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/im-glad-sabres-no-longer-reaching-in.html). I am mush more happy we have a young more progressive GM in Tim Murray then the old guard who has great ideas from about 20-25 years ago but does not have a clue in this day in age.
Now Lamoriello is not a part of the Leafs organization ever, but his past success is still reaching for past success with another team I might add. It is said that he drafted current Leafs President Brendan Shanahan so they have a good relationship. He was successful with the Devils in the past, the key word is WAS. Lamoriello was very successful, maybe most successful GM prior to the 2004-05 lockout with all three of his Cups in his first 17 years as GM. Post 04-05 Lockout was not as successful. While the Devils won four division titles in the first five years post 04-05 lockout (ironically same amount of division titles in his first 17 years), the Devils failed to make it out of the second round each year with three times losing in the first round.
The last five years of his tenure saw the Devils miss the playoffs four times with one notable exception being that they made it all the way to the Cup Finals in 2012, where they lost to the Los Angeles Kings. One of the biggest reasons for the decline was that Martin Brodeur was not the elite goalie (while still pretty good) as he was before the lockout. His numbers steadily declined as his save percentage kept going down each year and his playoff numbers and performances (minus the 2012 run to the finals) were bad, really bad as he was a shell of his former self.
Other reasons include Lamoriello's ability to be penny pinching, which worked for some time when they had really great talent on the blue line along with a hall of fame goalie in his prime. All that starts to catch up as they lost talented players such as Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, and Zach Parise as he let them walk and trading away other key veterans (such as Jamie Langenbrunner) or letting them walk in free agency.
Losing Parise was especially tough as he failed to get a deal done before he became an unrestricted free agent after the 2011-12 run to the finals. Actually, Parise was an unrestricted free agent in 2011, but signed a one-year deal to remain after he missed most of the season with a knee injury, but Lamoriello failed to lock him up long term and he's been doing great in Minnesota while New Jersey struggles to be competitive.
He did trade for Ilya Kovalcyuk in 2010 and managed to sign him to a 15-year, $100 million deal that saw him fight with the NHL which was eventually solved, but not without the NHL fining them and taking away a first round pick for circumventing the salary cap originally. Kovalchuk's deal hurt the Devils' cap space as in 2010-11, that along with injures forced them to dress as few as 15 players at one point in a game and management came under intense scrutiny for that.
Kovalchuk was very productive in New Jersey and I don't blame Lamoriello one bit for signing him because they were terrible offensively minus Parise during these years. Kovalchuk suddenly "retired" from the NHL in 2013 and went back to Russia to play in the KHL. That hurt the Devils even more. Kovalchuk might have cost them a chance at re-signing Parise or maybe they thought they would lose him, whatever.
I can't blame Lamoriello for these moves, maybe should have done a better job with Parise so he made some moves out of desperation. He's signed old, past-their-prime players such as Shanahan, Brian Rolston, Bobby Holik, Petr Sykora, and Henrik Tallinder during his final decade there. To help make up for the loss of both Parise and Kovalchuk in 2013, Lamoriello decided to trade a top-10 pick for goalie Cory Schneider.
Schneider is very good and has been very good for New Jersey. But they thought they can get back to the old glory days of finding an elite goalie to make up for a loss of offense, which does not happen in this day of age. You don't need a big time, big money goalie you need elite forwards. Schneider is in a seven-year deal with a $6 million a year cap hit. That's a recipe for disaster. I like Schneider a lot, he's one of my favorite goalies, but he's in no man's land with no elite players in front of him which won't lead to a ton of success.
That's just Lamoriello reaching for the past of defense and elite goaltending, which is not that game anymore. Lamoriello gets credit and rightfully so for winning, but he gets too much credit like many who are successful for a long period of time for developing a "culture of winning" and "building a winner." If you know me you know that I think that whole culture of winning is a crock. Well it's not but only if you get great players and win. Then and only then do you build a culture of winning. It's not something you go into a locker room or front office and just say you're going to do it and make up some phony things that lead to building a winning culture.
Perfect example a few years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs hired Scott Pioli from the New England Patriots to run their team. He was from a winning culture known as "the Patriot way." He tried to establish that same culture in Kansas City by doing such small and petty BS things like make sure trash is picked up by placing a candy bar wrapper and see if anyone cleans it up and throw a fit if no one does. If you think I am kidding, go Google it. How did that work out? He and his cronies were fired in less than four years with one of the worst teams in the NFL. What about that winning culture? It turned out they couldn't bring Tom Brady with them.
So how did Lamoriello build a winning culture? It wasn't because he placed trash and made sure people picked it up or cleaned the bathrooms. It was because he found great players, especially in the draft. He obviously hit on Brodeur and Patrik Elias in late first and second rounds, drafting Shanahan 2nd overall, and even signing or trading for star players that were drafted at the top of the draft for other teams like Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer.
Some of Lou's bizarre tactics such as firing coaches just before the regular season and even appointing himself as head coach, signing cheap veterans, and letting players go worked because they kept come of their best players and just fit the pieces around them. He kept the great players like Brodeur, Stevens, Niedermayer, and Elias while letting other replaceable players go. It's as simple as that.
Great players build a winning culture and the GMs, scouts, and coaches get ridiculous amounts of credit for star players. Chicago was terrible for a long, long time maybe because the culture in the locker room or bathroom or wherever was awful. People must not have been picking up their candy bar wrappers and now maybe finally someone has taken the initiative to clean up the mess. That or they were so bad and got a lot of great players like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews at the top of the draft but believe whatever you want. The reason I laugh and take shots at takes like these is because it's total nonsense and BS.
Speaking of being terrible and finishing at the top of the draft for great players, the Devils really should have done that last season. Last season, they really should have went after McEichel by bottoming out. Instead, they finished with the sixth-worst record in the NHL and were 24 points behind the Sabres for 30th, yet finished 21 points out of the playoffs. That's even worse than the Flyers did (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/flyers-are-in-terrible-cap-situation.html) as both organizations are going nowhere fast.
People hate bottoming out but that's what you have to do if you want to get great players to contend and win the Stanley Cup, unless you're lucky and can get a big time free agent, but those days are no more. I for one am glad the Sabres decided to take the bottoming out role and getting Jack Eichel instead of middling it for years and years to come.
I am no way saying that Lamoriello doesn't deserve the credit for what he's done overall. However, it should be noted the last 5-10 years did not go too well and I don't expect him to come in a build a winner in Toronto. I like the way Toronto is doing their rebuild and if they want to be successful, hopefully they don't go the role of Lamoriello and how he build the Devils in recent years. He was successful, but I'm glad the Sabres are not reaching for the past in their organization or off other successful organizations.
Lamoriello is a hall of fame GM for building the Devils into a Cup contender for most of his 28 years on the job. They missed the playoffs only six times since he's been there (although four times have occurred in his last five seasons there) and have won the Stanley Cup three times while losing twice more in 2001 and 2012.
Lamoriello is a living legend if you will and his time in New Jersey should be celebrated minus the fact if you are like myself, you hated the Devils and their stupid Neutral Zone Trap which helped really ruin the game of hockey. Nevertheless, the Leafs are doing something teams especially a big market like Toronto tend to do and that's reach for the past.
Of course Buffalo teams were really good at that but thankfully under the Pegula ownership, both Bills and Sabres are no longer doing that (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/im-glad-sabres-no-longer-reaching-in.html). I am mush more happy we have a young more progressive GM in Tim Murray then the old guard who has great ideas from about 20-25 years ago but does not have a clue in this day in age.
Now Lamoriello is not a part of the Leafs organization ever, but his past success is still reaching for past success with another team I might add. It is said that he drafted current Leafs President Brendan Shanahan so they have a good relationship. He was successful with the Devils in the past, the key word is WAS. Lamoriello was very successful, maybe most successful GM prior to the 2004-05 lockout with all three of his Cups in his first 17 years as GM. Post 04-05 Lockout was not as successful. While the Devils won four division titles in the first five years post 04-05 lockout (ironically same amount of division titles in his first 17 years), the Devils failed to make it out of the second round each year with three times losing in the first round.
The last five years of his tenure saw the Devils miss the playoffs four times with one notable exception being that they made it all the way to the Cup Finals in 2012, where they lost to the Los Angeles Kings. One of the biggest reasons for the decline was that Martin Brodeur was not the elite goalie (while still pretty good) as he was before the lockout. His numbers steadily declined as his save percentage kept going down each year and his playoff numbers and performances (minus the 2012 run to the finals) were bad, really bad as he was a shell of his former self.
Other reasons include Lamoriello's ability to be penny pinching, which worked for some time when they had really great talent on the blue line along with a hall of fame goalie in his prime. All that starts to catch up as they lost talented players such as Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, and Zach Parise as he let them walk and trading away other key veterans (such as Jamie Langenbrunner) or letting them walk in free agency.
Losing Parise was especially tough as he failed to get a deal done before he became an unrestricted free agent after the 2011-12 run to the finals. Actually, Parise was an unrestricted free agent in 2011, but signed a one-year deal to remain after he missed most of the season with a knee injury, but Lamoriello failed to lock him up long term and he's been doing great in Minnesota while New Jersey struggles to be competitive.
He did trade for Ilya Kovalcyuk in 2010 and managed to sign him to a 15-year, $100 million deal that saw him fight with the NHL which was eventually solved, but not without the NHL fining them and taking away a first round pick for circumventing the salary cap originally. Kovalchuk's deal hurt the Devils' cap space as in 2010-11, that along with injures forced them to dress as few as 15 players at one point in a game and management came under intense scrutiny for that.
Kovalchuk was very productive in New Jersey and I don't blame Lamoriello one bit for signing him because they were terrible offensively minus Parise during these years. Kovalchuk suddenly "retired" from the NHL in 2013 and went back to Russia to play in the KHL. That hurt the Devils even more. Kovalchuk might have cost them a chance at re-signing Parise or maybe they thought they would lose him, whatever.
I can't blame Lamoriello for these moves, maybe should have done a better job with Parise so he made some moves out of desperation. He's signed old, past-their-prime players such as Shanahan, Brian Rolston, Bobby Holik, Petr Sykora, and Henrik Tallinder during his final decade there. To help make up for the loss of both Parise and Kovalchuk in 2013, Lamoriello decided to trade a top-10 pick for goalie Cory Schneider.
Schneider is very good and has been very good for New Jersey. But they thought they can get back to the old glory days of finding an elite goalie to make up for a loss of offense, which does not happen in this day of age. You don't need a big time, big money goalie you need elite forwards. Schneider is in a seven-year deal with a $6 million a year cap hit. That's a recipe for disaster. I like Schneider a lot, he's one of my favorite goalies, but he's in no man's land with no elite players in front of him which won't lead to a ton of success.
That's just Lamoriello reaching for the past of defense and elite goaltending, which is not that game anymore. Lamoriello gets credit and rightfully so for winning, but he gets too much credit like many who are successful for a long period of time for developing a "culture of winning" and "building a winner." If you know me you know that I think that whole culture of winning is a crock. Well it's not but only if you get great players and win. Then and only then do you build a culture of winning. It's not something you go into a locker room or front office and just say you're going to do it and make up some phony things that lead to building a winning culture.
Perfect example a few years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs hired Scott Pioli from the New England Patriots to run their team. He was from a winning culture known as "the Patriot way." He tried to establish that same culture in Kansas City by doing such small and petty BS things like make sure trash is picked up by placing a candy bar wrapper and see if anyone cleans it up and throw a fit if no one does. If you think I am kidding, go Google it. How did that work out? He and his cronies were fired in less than four years with one of the worst teams in the NFL. What about that winning culture? It turned out they couldn't bring Tom Brady with them.
So how did Lamoriello build a winning culture? It wasn't because he placed trash and made sure people picked it up or cleaned the bathrooms. It was because he found great players, especially in the draft. He obviously hit on Brodeur and Patrik Elias in late first and second rounds, drafting Shanahan 2nd overall, and even signing or trading for star players that were drafted at the top of the draft for other teams like Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer.
Some of Lou's bizarre tactics such as firing coaches just before the regular season and even appointing himself as head coach, signing cheap veterans, and letting players go worked because they kept come of their best players and just fit the pieces around them. He kept the great players like Brodeur, Stevens, Niedermayer, and Elias while letting other replaceable players go. It's as simple as that.
Great players build a winning culture and the GMs, scouts, and coaches get ridiculous amounts of credit for star players. Chicago was terrible for a long, long time maybe because the culture in the locker room or bathroom or wherever was awful. People must not have been picking up their candy bar wrappers and now maybe finally someone has taken the initiative to clean up the mess. That or they were so bad and got a lot of great players like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews at the top of the draft but believe whatever you want. The reason I laugh and take shots at takes like these is because it's total nonsense and BS.
Speaking of being terrible and finishing at the top of the draft for great players, the Devils really should have done that last season. Last season, they really should have went after McEichel by bottoming out. Instead, they finished with the sixth-worst record in the NHL and were 24 points behind the Sabres for 30th, yet finished 21 points out of the playoffs. That's even worse than the Flyers did (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/flyers-are-in-terrible-cap-situation.html) as both organizations are going nowhere fast.
People hate bottoming out but that's what you have to do if you want to get great players to contend and win the Stanley Cup, unless you're lucky and can get a big time free agent, but those days are no more. I for one am glad the Sabres decided to take the bottoming out role and getting Jack Eichel instead of middling it for years and years to come.
I am no way saying that Lamoriello doesn't deserve the credit for what he's done overall. However, it should be noted the last 5-10 years did not go too well and I don't expect him to come in a build a winner in Toronto. I like the way Toronto is doing their rebuild and if they want to be successful, hopefully they don't go the role of Lamoriello and how he build the Devils in recent years. He was successful, but I'm glad the Sabres are not reaching for the past in their organization or off other successful organizations.
Braxton Miller Moves to Wide Receiver; Will Cardale Jones be the Starter over JT Barrett?
We don't know who will be the starting qb for this year's national championship defense for Ohio State as there were three men: Braxton Miller, Cardale Jones, and J.T. Barrett. Well now there are two as it was announced that Miller will move over to wide receiver. Miller was the starting qb from 2011-2013, where he lost just two games from 2012-13, including winning every game in 2012 while the Buckeyes were on probation and couldn't play for the Big Ten title or the national championship.
Miller was no doubt the starter going into last season and was even considered a Heisman Trophy candidate. But a torn labrum he suffered before the season ended his season. That meant a competition was needed to replace him as Barrett beat out Jones for the starting job. After an early season upset loss at home to Virginia Tech, Barrett guided the Buckeyes to 10 straight victories, most of which were blow out wins. Barrett had a school and Big Ten record 44 total touchdowns (34 passing and 10 rushing) before suffering a season-ending broken ankle in a win over Michigan.
Then the Buckeyes turned to their "third string QB" Cardale Jones for the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin. Jones guided the Buckeyes to a 59-0 destruction over Wisconsin in his first career start and hit three long TD passes to Devin Smith. Then in the first round of the College Football Playoffs, he was equally as impressive in a 42-35 win over Alabama.
Then in the National Championship Game, he led the Buckeyes to a 42-20 win over Oregon to win the National Championship. In his three starts, he threw for 742 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 90 yards and another TD. It didn't hurt that star running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 220, 230, and 246 yards in the those three games as well.
Despite only starting three games, Jones was considered a prospect in the 2015 NFL Draft, albeit not a top pick. More like a 4th or 5th round pick, maybe even as high as a 3rd round pick how he did at the Combine for his arm strength, size, and quickness, much like Cam Newton. Even though he wouldn't be a high prospect, he'd still be drafted and he'd make the minimum (what $400-500K?) and get a chance to learn behind NFL QBs and learn from NFL coaches. He could have gone back to school and earn the starting job and try to be a first round pick, or he could lose his job and might not be drafted or have to wait another year. He gambled on staying in school and battling both Barrett and at the time Miller for the starting job.
It's not a guarantee he wins the starting job. I wanted him to go into the draft this past year and the Bills to draft him. I still want the Bills to draft him unless our starting QB turns out to be great. Jones has one QB to battle as Miller won't be a QB. He did not beat out Barrett last year and who knows what he'll do this year. Barrett was a Heisman Candidate before his injury, but Jones showed how great he was in the biggest of big games. I might like the Bills to draft Barrett if he wins the job.
Miller was no doubt the starter going into last season and was even considered a Heisman Trophy candidate. But a torn labrum he suffered before the season ended his season. That meant a competition was needed to replace him as Barrett beat out Jones for the starting job. After an early season upset loss at home to Virginia Tech, Barrett guided the Buckeyes to 10 straight victories, most of which were blow out wins. Barrett had a school and Big Ten record 44 total touchdowns (34 passing and 10 rushing) before suffering a season-ending broken ankle in a win over Michigan.
Then the Buckeyes turned to their "third string QB" Cardale Jones for the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin. Jones guided the Buckeyes to a 59-0 destruction over Wisconsin in his first career start and hit three long TD passes to Devin Smith. Then in the first round of the College Football Playoffs, he was equally as impressive in a 42-35 win over Alabama.
Then in the National Championship Game, he led the Buckeyes to a 42-20 win over Oregon to win the National Championship. In his three starts, he threw for 742 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 90 yards and another TD. It didn't hurt that star running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 220, 230, and 246 yards in the those three games as well.
Despite only starting three games, Jones was considered a prospect in the 2015 NFL Draft, albeit not a top pick. More like a 4th or 5th round pick, maybe even as high as a 3rd round pick how he did at the Combine for his arm strength, size, and quickness, much like Cam Newton. Even though he wouldn't be a high prospect, he'd still be drafted and he'd make the minimum (what $400-500K?) and get a chance to learn behind NFL QBs and learn from NFL coaches. He could have gone back to school and earn the starting job and try to be a first round pick, or he could lose his job and might not be drafted or have to wait another year. He gambled on staying in school and battling both Barrett and at the time Miller for the starting job.
It's not a guarantee he wins the starting job. I wanted him to go into the draft this past year and the Bills to draft him. I still want the Bills to draft him unless our starting QB turns out to be great. Jones has one QB to battle as Miller won't be a QB. He did not beat out Barrett last year and who knows what he'll do this year. Barrett was a Heisman Candidate before his injury, but Jones showed how great he was in the biggest of big games. I might like the Bills to draft Barrett if he wins the job.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Bills QB Situation; If Accuracy is the Problem then I want the Most Athletic (EJ or Tyrod); Maybe Philip Rivers Could Be Available?
I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the Bills might be close to the worst QB situation in the NFL (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-bills-might-not-have-worst-qb.html). It appears that nothing has nor will change. I even wrote my opinion (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/ej-struggled-because-of-marrone-sure.html) about this article about how Doug Marrone ruined E.J. Manuel (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515). I believe it's about 20-25% Marrone's fault, it's still mostly E.J.'s fault as he is inaccurate and you can't teach accuracy.
There is a three-way competition for the Bills' starting QB job. The longer the job is a competition the worst it is for the Bills. The Bills need one of the three to separate from the other two as soon as possible. Accuracy is a problem with each of these three QBs. With accuracy being a problem, I want the QB with the best possible running capabilities and that guy is Tyrod Taylor. Taylor has the best wheels of either of the three and has the least body of work as he just has 35 regular season passes so there is an uncertainty as to whether he is good or bad. Taylor also seems to be the QB that Rex Ryan loves, well loves that is currently on the roster because I'm sure the QB he loves is Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.
Manuel still intrigues me with just 14 regular season along with being a former 1st round pick and the possibility of Greg Roman maybe just maybe turing his game around. Look at what he did with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. I want nothing to do with Matt Cassel because he has too much of a body of work with little success outside of the 2008 and 2010 seasons. He's just another average, below average journeyman. I want Taylor or Manuel for their athleticism to make up for their deficiencies throwing the football. I mean if Cassel is the guy, fine I'll deal with it. I just won't be enthusiastic. Sadly, if this team misses the playoffs it's mainly because of the QB.
Now this does not mean much to the QB situation for this year but there is a development going on right now that can maybe help this team next year. It seems that Philip Rivers is showing little to no urgency to sign a contract extension with the San Diego Chargers (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/20/report-philip-rivers-showing-little-urgency-in-contract-talks/). Rivers does not want to sign a longterm deal to finish his career with the Chargers because of their uncertainty of remaining in San Diego and possibly moving to Los Angeles. Rivers does not want to move his family to Los Angeles and may just play out this season and become a free agent next year.
I am very interested in seeing the Rivers saga for obvious reasons. Now Rivers is 34 years old and next year, he'd hit the open market (assuming he doesn't re-up) at 35 years old. He might not be what he was a few years ago, but he still shows the ability that makes him one of the top-10 QBs currently in the game and an MVP candidate. After a couple of down seasons in 2011 and 2012, Rivers bounced back big time in 2013 and had a very good year last year, especially the first six games where he looked like the league MVP.
He did however struggle the final 10 games, going 4-6 after starting the season 5-1 and completing 69% of his passes, 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions, a 117.6 rating, and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. While he had some good games in the second half of the season against Oakland, St. Louis, Baltimore, and the second half against San Francisco, he looked bad against Denver and Kansas City twice, New England, and the worst being shut out against Miami. His final numbers were still respectable throwing for 4,286 yards, 31 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, and a 93.8 rating. Those aren't MVP numbers but on this team and with our problems at QB for years, those numbers would get Rivers a statue out front of Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Rivers is still good and would definitely be the best QB since Jim Kelly. Rivers is 88-56 as a starter, 32 games over .500 which means he needs to go 0-32 in order to be .500, and has thrown 252 touchdowns to only 122 interceptions. Those are very good career numbers. Rivers has only one losing season, that was 7-9 in 2012. He's been 8-8 or better each year while the Bills have been 8-8 or better just four times since 2000.
Thinking ahead to next year, I can't think of any team better suited than the Bills to make a run at Rivers in free agency, assuming he's there. Many teams have their QB in place while others will draft their guy instead of going after a 35-year-old. Plus Rivers will want his choice of the best team that could win the Super Bowl. Who would be better than the Bills with the talent on this team? This team is a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender with the talent on this roster. A QB like Rivers can take this team not only to the playoffs, but maybe to a playoff win or two or maybe even the Super Bowl. This would be like 2012 when Peyton Manning hit the open market and chose the Broncos with their talent over anyone else.
Besides watching the Bills and their QB dilemma I mean battle, we must keep our eye on the Rivers and Chargers contract saga. We can hope that he will not sign a new deal and hit the open market next year. If that's the case, I expect Terry Pegula to make a big run at him and he would choose us over any team needing a QB at that point with the talent on this team.
There is a three-way competition for the Bills' starting QB job. The longer the job is a competition the worst it is for the Bills. The Bills need one of the three to separate from the other two as soon as possible. Accuracy is a problem with each of these three QBs. With accuracy being a problem, I want the QB with the best possible running capabilities and that guy is Tyrod Taylor. Taylor has the best wheels of either of the three and has the least body of work as he just has 35 regular season passes so there is an uncertainty as to whether he is good or bad. Taylor also seems to be the QB that Rex Ryan loves, well loves that is currently on the roster because I'm sure the QB he loves is Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.
Manuel still intrigues me with just 14 regular season along with being a former 1st round pick and the possibility of Greg Roman maybe just maybe turing his game around. Look at what he did with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. I want nothing to do with Matt Cassel because he has too much of a body of work with little success outside of the 2008 and 2010 seasons. He's just another average, below average journeyman. I want Taylor or Manuel for their athleticism to make up for their deficiencies throwing the football. I mean if Cassel is the guy, fine I'll deal with it. I just won't be enthusiastic. Sadly, if this team misses the playoffs it's mainly because of the QB.
Now this does not mean much to the QB situation for this year but there is a development going on right now that can maybe help this team next year. It seems that Philip Rivers is showing little to no urgency to sign a contract extension with the San Diego Chargers (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/20/report-philip-rivers-showing-little-urgency-in-contract-talks/). Rivers does not want to sign a longterm deal to finish his career with the Chargers because of their uncertainty of remaining in San Diego and possibly moving to Los Angeles. Rivers does not want to move his family to Los Angeles and may just play out this season and become a free agent next year.
I am very interested in seeing the Rivers saga for obvious reasons. Now Rivers is 34 years old and next year, he'd hit the open market (assuming he doesn't re-up) at 35 years old. He might not be what he was a few years ago, but he still shows the ability that makes him one of the top-10 QBs currently in the game and an MVP candidate. After a couple of down seasons in 2011 and 2012, Rivers bounced back big time in 2013 and had a very good year last year, especially the first six games where he looked like the league MVP.
He did however struggle the final 10 games, going 4-6 after starting the season 5-1 and completing 69% of his passes, 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions, a 117.6 rating, and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. While he had some good games in the second half of the season against Oakland, St. Louis, Baltimore, and the second half against San Francisco, he looked bad against Denver and Kansas City twice, New England, and the worst being shut out against Miami. His final numbers were still respectable throwing for 4,286 yards, 31 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, and a 93.8 rating. Those aren't MVP numbers but on this team and with our problems at QB for years, those numbers would get Rivers a statue out front of Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Rivers is still good and would definitely be the best QB since Jim Kelly. Rivers is 88-56 as a starter, 32 games over .500 which means he needs to go 0-32 in order to be .500, and has thrown 252 touchdowns to only 122 interceptions. Those are very good career numbers. Rivers has only one losing season, that was 7-9 in 2012. He's been 8-8 or better each year while the Bills have been 8-8 or better just four times since 2000.
Thinking ahead to next year, I can't think of any team better suited than the Bills to make a run at Rivers in free agency, assuming he's there. Many teams have their QB in place while others will draft their guy instead of going after a 35-year-old. Plus Rivers will want his choice of the best team that could win the Super Bowl. Who would be better than the Bills with the talent on this team? This team is a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender with the talent on this roster. A QB like Rivers can take this team not only to the playoffs, but maybe to a playoff win or two or maybe even the Super Bowl. This would be like 2012 when Peyton Manning hit the open market and chose the Broncos with their talent over anyone else.
Besides watching the Bills and their QB dilemma I mean battle, we must keep our eye on the Rivers and Chargers contract saga. We can hope that he will not sign a new deal and hit the open market next year. If that's the case, I expect Terry Pegula to make a big run at him and he would choose us over any team needing a QB at that point with the talent on this team.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Flyers Are in Terrible Cap Situation; One of the Teams I Don't Want to Be; They Should have Tanked for McEichel
Boy I've said it many times just recently but I've also been saying it since the beginning of last season, the Philadelphia Flyers are one of the top teams I'd least like to be. Now after a season in which they finished 12th in the Eastern Conference and were 14 points out of the playoffs, the prophecy is even more true. Now word on the street is that they are facing a horrific cap situation to make matters even worse (http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25244976/flyers-face-daunting-salary-cap-situation-in-2015-16-and-beyond).
The Flyers should have really bottomed out for McEichel. They were in a terrible spot, so bad not to make the playoffs but not bad enough to finish 30th or 29th. I'm sure Philadelphia was fine not finishing last because they have too much pride like the Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils, the tough gritty northeastern teams. Boston is the team I'd least like to be because of their idiocy at the top of the organization letting go of top notch players for ridiculous reasons.
New Jersey and Philadelphia are very close and all three of these teams need to reload and retool and bottom out and need several years of high draft picks to be great again. These are long rebuilds unlike the Sabres. Of course Boston had several high draft picks gifted to them only to throw them away for nothing. Montreal, despite their regular season successes the last three years, is approaching team I least like to be status due to lack of big play scoring forwards (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/carey-price-cleans-up-nhl-awards.html).
The Flyers also made numerous dumb moves much like the Bruins have. They got rid of Jeff Carter and Mike Richards because they "partied too much", well Richards turned out to be ok to let go of because of recent events and his decline but not before winning two Stanley Cups with the Kings. Carter on the other hand was a very foolish move to get rid of him. He's been great for LA. They got good players in return for both such as Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, and Sean Couturier.
The problem isn't what they got back it's that no one else has stepped up. The bottom six forwards don't score and the defense and goaltending have been nightmares. And the flyers have spent a ton on absolutely nothing and that's what's been ruining them. Other dumb moves the Flyers have made include trading Carter and Richards to clear up cap space to sign Ilya Bryzgalov. Their goaltending wasn't great but they went to the finals in 2010 with three goalies and lost in six games to Chicago. One of those goalies ended up being Sergei Bobrovsky, who's won a Vezina and has been great for Columbus. Had they not blown it all on Bryzgalov they'd still had Bobrovsky.
After buying out Bryzgalov after two lousy years, they went back with Ray Emery and Steve Mason as neither worked out. Other foolish moves include trading former number two overall pick James van Riemsdyk to Toronto for failed defenseman Luke Schenn and signing 35 year old Vincent Lecavalier to a five year deal with a $4.5 million cap hit, 37 year old Mark Streit to a four year deal, and Andrew MacDonald to a six year $30 million deal. All these moves the Flyers have made have only given them only half a million dollars worth of cap space left.
That doesn't include the fact that Voracek is set to be an unrestricted free agent and they must do whatever to keep him and both Couturier and Brayden Schenn are set to be restricted free agents next year. That's insane some of your best young players are set to be free agents with that low amount of cap room shows just how awfully mismanaged the Flyers really are. Claude Giroux has a $8.275 million cap hit but he's obviously worth it. Simmonds has a cap hit just under $4 million and that looks like an incredible bargain.
Good news is that Sam Gagner's $3.2 million cap hit and Luke Schenn's $3.6 million cap hit both come off the books after this season and RJ Umberger's $4.6 million cap hit, Mason's $4.1 million cap hit, and Streit's ludicrous $5.2 million cap hit (when he's 39) come off the books after the 2016-17 season. Lecavalier doesn't come off the books until 2018. That's messed up considering he scored only 8 goals and 20 points in 57 games last year as it will only get better keep telling yourself. Same with newly signed defenseman Michael Del Zotto, who signed a two year deal to help the struggling blue line and carries a $3.875 million cap hit.
What's happened to the Flyers? They were the team I wanted to be back around 2008-2011 because of the moves they made. Of course I wanted to be a lot of teams not named the Sabres at that time now I'm proud what the Sabres are doing. Anyways, the Flyers had the worst record in 2006-07 with 22 wins and 56 points. The Sabres won the President's Trophy with 53 wins and 113 points and they destroyed the Flyers 9-1 early that season, which saw them fire both Ken Hitchcock and Bobby Clarke shortly after.
The Flyers made a ton of spectacular moves by acquiring Martin Biron, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, drafting JVR second overall, and then signing Daniel Briere from the Sabres along with youngsters like Richards and Carter stepping up. The changes saw the Flyers goes from 56 points to a whopping 95 and made the Eastern Conference Finals. Many thought the Flyers would not make the playoffs let alone go to the Eastern Conference Finals one year after being the worst team in the league. It shows you that turnarounds don't have to take forever as the Sabres are looking to show the NHL that same thing.
Two years later, the Flyers lost in the finals to Chicago and beat the Sabres in the first round in 2011 before they started to make puzzling moves to put them in the position they are currently in. I hope the Sabres show similar progress from last year to this year, which is not crazy to do. Let's hope however they don't make the same mistakes the Flyers did or like the Bruins by letting go of great players for stupid reasons.
The Flyers should have really bottomed out for McEichel. They were in a terrible spot, so bad not to make the playoffs but not bad enough to finish 30th or 29th. I'm sure Philadelphia was fine not finishing last because they have too much pride like the Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils, the tough gritty northeastern teams. Boston is the team I'd least like to be because of their idiocy at the top of the organization letting go of top notch players for ridiculous reasons.
New Jersey and Philadelphia are very close and all three of these teams need to reload and retool and bottom out and need several years of high draft picks to be great again. These are long rebuilds unlike the Sabres. Of course Boston had several high draft picks gifted to them only to throw them away for nothing. Montreal, despite their regular season successes the last three years, is approaching team I least like to be status due to lack of big play scoring forwards (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/carey-price-cleans-up-nhl-awards.html).
The Flyers also made numerous dumb moves much like the Bruins have. They got rid of Jeff Carter and Mike Richards because they "partied too much", well Richards turned out to be ok to let go of because of recent events and his decline but not before winning two Stanley Cups with the Kings. Carter on the other hand was a very foolish move to get rid of him. He's been great for LA. They got good players in return for both such as Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, and Sean Couturier.
The problem isn't what they got back it's that no one else has stepped up. The bottom six forwards don't score and the defense and goaltending have been nightmares. And the flyers have spent a ton on absolutely nothing and that's what's been ruining them. Other dumb moves the Flyers have made include trading Carter and Richards to clear up cap space to sign Ilya Bryzgalov. Their goaltending wasn't great but they went to the finals in 2010 with three goalies and lost in six games to Chicago. One of those goalies ended up being Sergei Bobrovsky, who's won a Vezina and has been great for Columbus. Had they not blown it all on Bryzgalov they'd still had Bobrovsky.
After buying out Bryzgalov after two lousy years, they went back with Ray Emery and Steve Mason as neither worked out. Other foolish moves include trading former number two overall pick James van Riemsdyk to Toronto for failed defenseman Luke Schenn and signing 35 year old Vincent Lecavalier to a five year deal with a $4.5 million cap hit, 37 year old Mark Streit to a four year deal, and Andrew MacDonald to a six year $30 million deal. All these moves the Flyers have made have only given them only half a million dollars worth of cap space left.
That doesn't include the fact that Voracek is set to be an unrestricted free agent and they must do whatever to keep him and both Couturier and Brayden Schenn are set to be restricted free agents next year. That's insane some of your best young players are set to be free agents with that low amount of cap room shows just how awfully mismanaged the Flyers really are. Claude Giroux has a $8.275 million cap hit but he's obviously worth it. Simmonds has a cap hit just under $4 million and that looks like an incredible bargain.
Good news is that Sam Gagner's $3.2 million cap hit and Luke Schenn's $3.6 million cap hit both come off the books after this season and RJ Umberger's $4.6 million cap hit, Mason's $4.1 million cap hit, and Streit's ludicrous $5.2 million cap hit (when he's 39) come off the books after the 2016-17 season. Lecavalier doesn't come off the books until 2018. That's messed up considering he scored only 8 goals and 20 points in 57 games last year as it will only get better keep telling yourself. Same with newly signed defenseman Michael Del Zotto, who signed a two year deal to help the struggling blue line and carries a $3.875 million cap hit.
What's happened to the Flyers? They were the team I wanted to be back around 2008-2011 because of the moves they made. Of course I wanted to be a lot of teams not named the Sabres at that time now I'm proud what the Sabres are doing. Anyways, the Flyers had the worst record in 2006-07 with 22 wins and 56 points. The Sabres won the President's Trophy with 53 wins and 113 points and they destroyed the Flyers 9-1 early that season, which saw them fire both Ken Hitchcock and Bobby Clarke shortly after.
The Flyers made a ton of spectacular moves by acquiring Martin Biron, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, drafting JVR second overall, and then signing Daniel Briere from the Sabres along with youngsters like Richards and Carter stepping up. The changes saw the Flyers goes from 56 points to a whopping 95 and made the Eastern Conference Finals. Many thought the Flyers would not make the playoffs let alone go to the Eastern Conference Finals one year after being the worst team in the league. It shows you that turnarounds don't have to take forever as the Sabres are looking to show the NHL that same thing.
Two years later, the Flyers lost in the finals to Chicago and beat the Sabres in the first round in 2011 before they started to make puzzling moves to put them in the position they are currently in. I hope the Sabres show similar progress from last year to this year, which is not crazy to do. Let's hope however they don't make the same mistakes the Flyers did or like the Bruins by letting go of great players for stupid reasons.
RIP Van Miller; A Celebration of Miller's Life and Famous Calls with the Bills
Sadly this past weekend, Buffalo Bills fans and Western New York lost a legend as Van Miller passed away. Miller died after complications from a stroke at his home in Tonawanda, NY and battled health problems in his final years. He was 87 years old. Miller is gone but will never be forgotten.
Miller was born in 1927 and raised in Dunkirk, NY and did play-by-play for various local sports in the Western New York area. He knew when he was 10 years old he wanted to be a play-by-play announcer. He worked at several different radio stations across Western New York until he got his first big break in 1955. He was hired at WBEN and WIVB Channel 4. Although his job at Channel 4 was supposed to be temporary, Van remained there until retiring in 1998 as the sports director.
When it was announced in 1959 that the Buffalo Bills will be playing for the then American Football League (AFL) in 1960, one of the first things general manager Richard Gallagher did was hire Van Miller to do play-by-play for the new Buffalo team after WBEN got the rights to broadcast Bills games on radio. Miller did play-by-play for some of the best teams in Bills history in their early days in the AFL as he called the 1964 and 1965 AFL Championship Games where the Bills whipped the San Diego Chargers both times, allowing one single touchdown in both games. The Bills went to a third straight AFL Championship Game in 1966, with the winner playing in the inaugural Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers. But the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, who got whipped by the Packers in Super Bowl I.
Miller was with the Bills through 1971 when the Bills' radio rights was switched over WBEN's rival WKBW and Miller did not broadcast Bills games for seven years. During Van's seven-year absence as Bills play-by-play, he called games for the then-Buffalo NBA team the Buffalo Braves. Van also called games for Niagara University Basketball and was a part of some of the best moments in NU Purple Eagles history, especially the Calvin Murphy era. Van called Murphy's 68-point game against Syracuse and their run to the NCAA Tournament in 1970, where they upset Pennsylvania University in the first round. He also called games for the Buffalo Stallions Soccer team as well as the University at Buffalo Football team.
He returned as the Bills play-by-play man when WBEN got the games back in 1978 and remained their play-by-play man through the 2003 season. Unfortunately he missed some of O.J. Simpson's best seasons (including his 2000-yard season in 1973), but he was a part of the Bills greatest success from 1988-1993, when they played in four straight Super Bowls from 1990-93 and won five AFC East Division Championships in those six years. Maybe Van's best calls were in the Greatest Comeback Game over the Houston Oilers where they were down 35-3 and won 41-38 in January 1993.
Miller called some of the best players in this era: Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, Darryl Talley, Cornelius Bennett, Steve Tasker, and many more. Even though the rest of the 1990s did not produce any more Super Bowl appearances, they were still a very good team. In the entire decade of the 1990s, the Bills won 103 games (averaging over 10 wins a season) and made the playoffs eight times in those 10 years with four division titles and four Super Bowl appearances. No word was better used by Miller than "Fandemonium." Talley says he's the one who came up with that while Miller disputes that. Regardless, Miller made the term famous.
Miller has been inducted into six hall of fames, but none greater than the one he made shortly after his retirement in 2004. That year, the Pro Football Hall of Fame honored Van with the Pete Rozelle Award as he became the first local broadcaster to win that prestigious award. What was supposed to be a two-minute speech became a seven-minute speech/stand up comedy routine. I'm sure few if any cared that he went beyond his allotted time.
Miller was inducted into the Buffalo Bills Wall of Fame last October.
Here's a look back at some of Van's finest moments:
1964 AFL Championship
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP0a781vZuE
1990 AFC Championship 51-3 beatdown over the Los Angeles Raiders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNlozIBMnro
1988 AFC East Championship clinching win over the Jets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot4raqK0oJI
Ending the 20-game losing streak against the Dolphins 1980
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPFP8bt4Tyo
Jim Kelly's Game-winning TD run against Miami 1989
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok0fczZw9gE
Of course the greatest Comeback in NFL history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSgfGKhYKu8
RIP Van Miller, you will be greatly missed.
Miller was born in 1927 and raised in Dunkirk, NY and did play-by-play for various local sports in the Western New York area. He knew when he was 10 years old he wanted to be a play-by-play announcer. He worked at several different radio stations across Western New York until he got his first big break in 1955. He was hired at WBEN and WIVB Channel 4. Although his job at Channel 4 was supposed to be temporary, Van remained there until retiring in 1998 as the sports director.
When it was announced in 1959 that the Buffalo Bills will be playing for the then American Football League (AFL) in 1960, one of the first things general manager Richard Gallagher did was hire Van Miller to do play-by-play for the new Buffalo team after WBEN got the rights to broadcast Bills games on radio. Miller did play-by-play for some of the best teams in Bills history in their early days in the AFL as he called the 1964 and 1965 AFL Championship Games where the Bills whipped the San Diego Chargers both times, allowing one single touchdown in both games. The Bills went to a third straight AFL Championship Game in 1966, with the winner playing in the inaugural Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers. But the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, who got whipped by the Packers in Super Bowl I.
Miller was with the Bills through 1971 when the Bills' radio rights was switched over WBEN's rival WKBW and Miller did not broadcast Bills games for seven years. During Van's seven-year absence as Bills play-by-play, he called games for the then-Buffalo NBA team the Buffalo Braves. Van also called games for Niagara University Basketball and was a part of some of the best moments in NU Purple Eagles history, especially the Calvin Murphy era. Van called Murphy's 68-point game against Syracuse and their run to the NCAA Tournament in 1970, where they upset Pennsylvania University in the first round. He also called games for the Buffalo Stallions Soccer team as well as the University at Buffalo Football team.
He returned as the Bills play-by-play man when WBEN got the games back in 1978 and remained their play-by-play man through the 2003 season. Unfortunately he missed some of O.J. Simpson's best seasons (including his 2000-yard season in 1973), but he was a part of the Bills greatest success from 1988-1993, when they played in four straight Super Bowls from 1990-93 and won five AFC East Division Championships in those six years. Maybe Van's best calls were in the Greatest Comeback Game over the Houston Oilers where they were down 35-3 and won 41-38 in January 1993.
Miller called some of the best players in this era: Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, Darryl Talley, Cornelius Bennett, Steve Tasker, and many more. Even though the rest of the 1990s did not produce any more Super Bowl appearances, they were still a very good team. In the entire decade of the 1990s, the Bills won 103 games (averaging over 10 wins a season) and made the playoffs eight times in those 10 years with four division titles and four Super Bowl appearances. No word was better used by Miller than "Fandemonium." Talley says he's the one who came up with that while Miller disputes that. Regardless, Miller made the term famous.
Miller has been inducted into six hall of fames, but none greater than the one he made shortly after his retirement in 2004. That year, the Pro Football Hall of Fame honored Van with the Pete Rozelle Award as he became the first local broadcaster to win that prestigious award. What was supposed to be a two-minute speech became a seven-minute speech/stand up comedy routine. I'm sure few if any cared that he went beyond his allotted time.
Miller was inducted into the Buffalo Bills Wall of Fame last October.
Here's a look back at some of Van's finest moments:
1964 AFL Championship
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP0a781vZuE
1990 AFC Championship 51-3 beatdown over the Los Angeles Raiders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNlozIBMnro
1988 AFC East Championship clinching win over the Jets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot4raqK0oJI
Ending the 20-game losing streak against the Dolphins 1980
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPFP8bt4Tyo
Jim Kelly's Game-winning TD run against Miami 1989
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok0fczZw9gE
Of course the greatest Comeback in NFL history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSgfGKhYKu8
RIP Van Miller, you will be greatly missed.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
EJ Struggled Because of Marrone?! Sure A Little Bit But He Also Struggled on Other Downs as Well
I saw Howard Simon of WGR tweet this link out about how Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett as rookie head coach and offensive coordinator derailed E.J. Manuel's rookie season and beyond (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515). First off, it's a very long and wordy article. Second, it makes some sense but it gives too much if not almost all the blame squarely on the coaches.
The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.
Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.
The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.
I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:
"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone. Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts. Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.
I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.
Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.
Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.
The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.
If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.
I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.
Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.
I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.
I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.
I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.
The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.
Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.
The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.
I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:
"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone. Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts. Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.
In his press conferences after the game vs the Jets in week 3, Marrone insisted the trouble with the Bills was 3rd down performance. He wasn't wrong -- the Bills were terrible on 3rd down. But they were primarily terrible on 3rd and 7+ yds, where they converted just 6% into 1st downs so far that season. On 3rd and 1-6 yds, the Bills converted 50% into 3rd down in 2013 to date, which was essentially the NFL average. The key for the Bills was to keep 3rd down manageable. Therefore, they needed to produce on 1st down. So what happened on first downs for the Bills in 2013?"
I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.
Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.
Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.
The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.
If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.
I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.
Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.
I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.
I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.
I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
What's Going On Here in Buffalo? First Aaron Kromer Now Ryan O'Reilly
The Buffalo summer is well underway. The weather is finally starting to be nice and the fans are very excited for this upcoming Bills and Sabres season. I can' remember how long it's been for fans to be very excited for both teams, let alone simply one. With the wait comes a lot of down time and in that down time as many of you know leads to some interesting and exciting things happening, both good and bad.
That's especially true with both the Bills and Sabres as one member of each organization did something over the last couple of days that brought upon shame and embarrassment to themselves and their respective organizations. Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer has been arrested for allegedly pushing down and punching a minor over what appears to be three boys taking beach chairs from his property without permission. The other is recent Sabres' acquisition Ryan O'Reilly crashed his truck into a Tim Horton's and left his truck behind. His blood alcohol level was apparently a .08.
Kromer spotted three young boys taking lawn beach chairs from his yard without his permission. He heard what was going on and saw some kids (i don't know how he could tell they were kids assuming it's as dark as it was) doing something. Rather than call the cops, he went out there to confront the kids. After a heated argument, Kromer grabbed one of the kids, pushed him to the ground and punched him according to the police report. If you can't trust a police report what can you trust? Until I learn otherwise I will go by what the police report says.
Another disturbing thing listed on the police report was that Kromer threatened to kill the boy and his parents if they called the police about this. That's not a good look. Unfortunately for Kromer, the threat to kill did not work. Can you imagine Kromer's wife? "Honey you should call the cops about what's going on outside." Aaron replies "no, I will go out there and I will threaten them, punch one of them, and threaten to kill them and their families. We're all good honey."
Why wouldn't Kromer just call the cops especially if it's dark outside? Why would you risk going out there and you don't know who they are and maybe one of them has a gun or something? It's not very smart on Kromer but based on this guy's past track record of judgment, he doesn't have very good judgment. Just like a lot of football people, a lot of these meatheads use their football culture of violence to try to solve issues rather than use common sense.
Don't forget, Kromer last year leaked out to the media that the Chicago Bears regretted giving Jay Cutler that big contract the year before. That drew the ire of many in the Bears' facility and locker room and the media which led to Kromer being fired after the season was over. He should have been gone right on the spot. He seems like an idiot. He should probably be gone over this but I am sure the Bills will wait for the facts to come out before making a move.
I believe in innocent until proven guilty but I would not be upset if they let him go. It's not the end of the world if Aaron Kromer isn't on the staff. You can find another offensive line coach and I am sure many of the players know what's going on as it is because they've had mini camp and OTAs to learn. It's not the end of the world, at least it wasn't Rex Ryan doing this. If that's the case they'd have to do what they can to keep him and discipline him. Kromer, not so much you can move on from him. I didn't like the hire of him in the first place as I am not a fan of the guy based on what happened last year and now this makes me like him even less.
This isn't the first time this offseason a member of the Buffalo Bills has been in hot water for something. Remember last week when second round pick Ronald Darby was criticized for his comments on the Florida State QB hitting that woman on the camera and has been kicked out of the school (http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/2015/07/07/bills-cornerback-under-fire-for-response-to-fsu-assault/29821723/)?
Darby did say hitting women is 100% wrong but drew criticism for saying there was a double standard because the woman hit the QB first before the QB (De'Andre Johnson) slugged her in retaliation and it was caught on camera. While I do agree with Darby about the double standard because I don't think women should hit men in case they think they can get away with it, men should not hit women back because it's simply common sense.
Darby seems to also be sticking up for his college teammate and unfortunately, these young kids are too committed to their teammates, especially college teammates, to the point where they lose proper perspective. Much like Kromer using his football instincts, Darby uses them along with his blind college love to defend a Florida State player. Much like a lot of Bills fans who don't think the Bills do anything wrong, Darby defends a Florida State player for thinking he's done nothing wrong.
Let's not forget, Darby might have a role in covering up the Jameis Winston rape case in December 2012. He was named a witness in the investigation to the rape committed by Winston, who was never charged with rape. Darby did not testify against Winston in a student conduct hearing and was not disciplined by the school. I said it after the draft, I wouldn't have drafted Darby despite some of his skills simply because of what has been alleged to have happened.
Isn't it possible to find someone albeit not as fast but somewhat closely skilled that doesn't have some sort of baggage around him you can take instead? What really is a second round pick cornerback going to do to make this team a playoff and championship team? He might be a very good corner, he might be a great corner. Obviously the Bills and Rex Ryan love him or else they wouldn't draft him with their "first pick." I guess we'll see in due time.
I don't need him that badly to make this team look more foolish as they already have had some interesting things going on such as signing Richie Incognito, the Kromer incident, the taking La'El Collins to dinner while he was being investigated for being a suspect in the shooting death of his pregnant girlfriend, and even drafting Darby's Florida State teammate Karlos Williams, who was alleged to have punched his pregnant girlfriend. Good job Florida State, way to run a great program Jimbo Fisher. He needs to be fired because coaches have been fired for a lot less. I guess the Bills are "building a bully" for sure.
O'Reilly has brought upon further excitement for the upcoming Sabres season (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/sabres-officially-draft-jack-eichel-and.html (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/ryan-oreilly-signs-seven-year-deal-its.html). Optimism should still be high, but it will be a little bit deflated. O'Reilly is due in court on August 20 and if convicted he will face up to six months in jail, $400-$2,000 fine, seven points on his license, and a suspended license up to two years.
O'Reilly probably will and should be suspended by the NHL and even Buffalo Sabres. I wouldn't mind him being sat for however long at the start of the season to teach him a lesson and the others a lesson. Thank God he didn't hurt or kill anyone else. I do want him punished but I don't want him gone and I am not regretting getting him. He's young and made a mistake, albeit a big one. But we've all done that ourselves. It's a ridiculous double standard I get it as he would get punished but not kicked off the team like a 4th line player would, much like an offensive line coach like Kromer would be fired instead of a head coach or even top notch coordinator.
That's just the way sports works. You don't have to like it but it's the way it works.
That's especially true with both the Bills and Sabres as one member of each organization did something over the last couple of days that brought upon shame and embarrassment to themselves and their respective organizations. Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer has been arrested for allegedly pushing down and punching a minor over what appears to be three boys taking beach chairs from his property without permission. The other is recent Sabres' acquisition Ryan O'Reilly crashed his truck into a Tim Horton's and left his truck behind. His blood alcohol level was apparently a .08.
Kromer spotted three young boys taking lawn beach chairs from his yard without his permission. He heard what was going on and saw some kids (i don't know how he could tell they were kids assuming it's as dark as it was) doing something. Rather than call the cops, he went out there to confront the kids. After a heated argument, Kromer grabbed one of the kids, pushed him to the ground and punched him according to the police report. If you can't trust a police report what can you trust? Until I learn otherwise I will go by what the police report says.
Another disturbing thing listed on the police report was that Kromer threatened to kill the boy and his parents if they called the police about this. That's not a good look. Unfortunately for Kromer, the threat to kill did not work. Can you imagine Kromer's wife? "Honey you should call the cops about what's going on outside." Aaron replies "no, I will go out there and I will threaten them, punch one of them, and threaten to kill them and their families. We're all good honey."
Why wouldn't Kromer just call the cops especially if it's dark outside? Why would you risk going out there and you don't know who they are and maybe one of them has a gun or something? It's not very smart on Kromer but based on this guy's past track record of judgment, he doesn't have very good judgment. Just like a lot of football people, a lot of these meatheads use their football culture of violence to try to solve issues rather than use common sense.
Don't forget, Kromer last year leaked out to the media that the Chicago Bears regretted giving Jay Cutler that big contract the year before. That drew the ire of many in the Bears' facility and locker room and the media which led to Kromer being fired after the season was over. He should have been gone right on the spot. He seems like an idiot. He should probably be gone over this but I am sure the Bills will wait for the facts to come out before making a move.
I believe in innocent until proven guilty but I would not be upset if they let him go. It's not the end of the world if Aaron Kromer isn't on the staff. You can find another offensive line coach and I am sure many of the players know what's going on as it is because they've had mini camp and OTAs to learn. It's not the end of the world, at least it wasn't Rex Ryan doing this. If that's the case they'd have to do what they can to keep him and discipline him. Kromer, not so much you can move on from him. I didn't like the hire of him in the first place as I am not a fan of the guy based on what happened last year and now this makes me like him even less.
This isn't the first time this offseason a member of the Buffalo Bills has been in hot water for something. Remember last week when second round pick Ronald Darby was criticized for his comments on the Florida State QB hitting that woman on the camera and has been kicked out of the school (http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/2015/07/07/bills-cornerback-under-fire-for-response-to-fsu-assault/29821723/)?
Darby did say hitting women is 100% wrong but drew criticism for saying there was a double standard because the woman hit the QB first before the QB (De'Andre Johnson) slugged her in retaliation and it was caught on camera. While I do agree with Darby about the double standard because I don't think women should hit men in case they think they can get away with it, men should not hit women back because it's simply common sense.
Darby seems to also be sticking up for his college teammate and unfortunately, these young kids are too committed to their teammates, especially college teammates, to the point where they lose proper perspective. Much like Kromer using his football instincts, Darby uses them along with his blind college love to defend a Florida State player. Much like a lot of Bills fans who don't think the Bills do anything wrong, Darby defends a Florida State player for thinking he's done nothing wrong.
Let's not forget, Darby might have a role in covering up the Jameis Winston rape case in December 2012. He was named a witness in the investigation to the rape committed by Winston, who was never charged with rape. Darby did not testify against Winston in a student conduct hearing and was not disciplined by the school. I said it after the draft, I wouldn't have drafted Darby despite some of his skills simply because of what has been alleged to have happened.
Isn't it possible to find someone albeit not as fast but somewhat closely skilled that doesn't have some sort of baggage around him you can take instead? What really is a second round pick cornerback going to do to make this team a playoff and championship team? He might be a very good corner, he might be a great corner. Obviously the Bills and Rex Ryan love him or else they wouldn't draft him with their "first pick." I guess we'll see in due time.
I don't need him that badly to make this team look more foolish as they already have had some interesting things going on such as signing Richie Incognito, the Kromer incident, the taking La'El Collins to dinner while he was being investigated for being a suspect in the shooting death of his pregnant girlfriend, and even drafting Darby's Florida State teammate Karlos Williams, who was alleged to have punched his pregnant girlfriend. Good job Florida State, way to run a great program Jimbo Fisher. He needs to be fired because coaches have been fired for a lot less. I guess the Bills are "building a bully" for sure.
O'Reilly has brought upon further excitement for the upcoming Sabres season (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/sabres-officially-draft-jack-eichel-and.html (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/ryan-oreilly-signs-seven-year-deal-its.html). Optimism should still be high, but it will be a little bit deflated. O'Reilly is due in court on August 20 and if convicted he will face up to six months in jail, $400-$2,000 fine, seven points on his license, and a suspended license up to two years.
O'Reilly probably will and should be suspended by the NHL and even Buffalo Sabres. I wouldn't mind him being sat for however long at the start of the season to teach him a lesson and the others a lesson. Thank God he didn't hurt or kill anyone else. I do want him punished but I don't want him gone and I am not regretting getting him. He's young and made a mistake, albeit a big one. But we've all done that ourselves. It's a ridiculous double standard I get it as he would get punished but not kicked off the team like a 4th line player would, much like an offensive line coach like Kromer would be fired instead of a head coach or even top notch coordinator.
That's just the way sports works. You don't have to like it but it's the way it works.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Greg Hardy's Suspension Reduced to 4 Games; I bet Brady's Will Be Reduced as Well But Goodell is Listening to Brady's Appeal
Greg Hardy had his 10-game suspension reduced to just four games, same as Tom Brady for his role in "Deflate Gate." It seems to appear that whenever Roger Goodell makes a ruling on the appeal that Brady made to him last month it could mean a reduction in suspension. Maybe two games, one? The consensus is that what Brady did is nowhere near as awful as Hardy's domestic violence against his ex-girlfriend and that he shouldn't be suspended as long, especially after the commissioner bungled the Ray Rice incident last year.
In a way, Hardy already had a long suspension last year. Hardy was suspended (in a way) by the Panthers for 15 games last season and then now 4 this season so it's a total of 19 games not just 4. Had he been suspended for 10 games this season, it would have been 25. So yeah, the four-game suspension looks awful compared to Brady's exact same for deflating footballs. But when you look at it, Hardy has missed a total of 19 games including this year.
It's so hard to determine cheating on the field is worth as many games as domestic violence and beating women. Obviously the latter is so much worse than the former because this is a stupid football game and these criminals should just be kicked out of the league. Brady should however not get away with anything for cheating on the football field and ruining the integrity of the game. Brady is not suspended four games simply for having footballs deflated, it was because of the alleged cover up and failure to cooperate with the investigation in terms of the CBA.
The commissioner has a league to run and overlook to make sure the integrity of the game is not ruined by cheating and the fans don't doubt the way the league is set up and run. Too bad he fumbled the Ray Rice incident last year and he'll never win regardless is he does the right thing or not because if he suspends Brady for four games, it's as long if not longer than woman beaters.
If he reduces the suspension or drops it, then the league looks tarnished and fans will continue not to trust the commissioner as he is in the back pocket of the Patriots and who knows what is right or wrong in the game.
In a way, Hardy already had a long suspension last year. Hardy was suspended (in a way) by the Panthers for 15 games last season and then now 4 this season so it's a total of 19 games not just 4. Had he been suspended for 10 games this season, it would have been 25. So yeah, the four-game suspension looks awful compared to Brady's exact same for deflating footballs. But when you look at it, Hardy has missed a total of 19 games including this year.
It's so hard to determine cheating on the field is worth as many games as domestic violence and beating women. Obviously the latter is so much worse than the former because this is a stupid football game and these criminals should just be kicked out of the league. Brady should however not get away with anything for cheating on the football field and ruining the integrity of the game. Brady is not suspended four games simply for having footballs deflated, it was because of the alleged cover up and failure to cooperate with the investigation in terms of the CBA.
The commissioner has a league to run and overlook to make sure the integrity of the game is not ruined by cheating and the fans don't doubt the way the league is set up and run. Too bad he fumbled the Ray Rice incident last year and he'll never win regardless is he does the right thing or not because if he suspends Brady for four games, it's as long if not longer than woman beaters.
If he reduces the suspension or drops it, then the league looks tarnished and fans will continue not to trust the commissioner as he is in the back pocket of the Patriots and who knows what is right or wrong in the game.
Saturday, July 4, 2015
The Bills Might Not Have the Worst QB Situation as MMQB Suggests but I think It's Very Close to the Worst; It Could Cost the Bills the Playoffs
I know the Buffalo Bills don't have the best QB situation in the NFL (far from it) but according to this MMQB article writen by Andy Benoit (http://mmqb.si.com/2015/07/03/nfl-quarterback-rankings/3/) the Bills rank dead last in the NFL in terms of starting QB. ESPN did not give the Bills a high ranking either based on their outlook on the next three seasons (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13129838/ranking-nfl-teams-1-32-based-their-outlook-next-three-seasons-nfl). They ranked 26th for those who don't have ESPN insider mainly because their QB situation.
They ranked well in all the rest of the categories except QB. QB is like the exam and/or mid-term or even project/report that counts for the majority of your overall grade in school. You can do very well on the other tests and homework assignments, but bomb on the final exam or whatever counts for the majority of your final grade and watch your grade drop. This is that exact case. Although in the ESPN article it's not entirely fair to judge because we have no idea who or what the QB situation will be. Maybe a Philip Rivers or Drew Brees or someone you never think possible could be available or maybe they draft one (I assume unless one of these QBs succeeds they will be drafting one next year no doubt about it). So we can't assume next year or the year after they'll be having the same QBs as this year. In fact i'll assume they won't, I'll bet on it.
Back to Benoit's article he ranked the teams by starting QB. He assumes Matt Cassel is 32nd/dead last. There's the consensus if they put either E.J. Manuel or Tyrod Taylor in instead of Cassel that they still are the worst in terms of QB or it's a fancier way of saying they have the worst crop of QBs in the NFL. Looking at the list I can't say 100% they are 32nd but they aren't far. If not 32nd, I'd say 31st, 30th, maybe even 29th. Wooooo!! that's progress. Ugh! So big deal, if they're not 32nd they're still one of the 3-5 worst at best. Cleveland I think is the worst because I think Josh McCown is worse than either of the Bills QBs although McCown was almost here. Should the Bills lose points however since McCown bailed on them and went to Cleveland instead?
Obviously I'd say the Browns are 32nd with McCown starting and the train wreck known as Johnny Manziel on the roster. Heck even our former beloved QB Thad Lewis is there in the mix. The same Lewis who went 2-3 in a backup role behind Manuel two years ago and the same guy who "regressed" badly and was released during the preseason last year.
I think Houston could be worse than the Bills as well as currently Brian Hoyer is their starter with Ryan Mallett as their backup maybe competing for the starting job. Doesn't matter if you have two quarterbacks you have none. Mallett did not really impress me and Hoyer was so awful down the stretch for Cleveland last year it made Kyle Orton look like Tom Brady.
The Jets also might be worse as well as Geno Smith is the starter as determined by Chan Gailey already without a competition with fellow backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith is terrible as he's horribly inaccurate and is a turnover machine who was benched several times last year in favor of an aging and ineffective Michael Vick. Fitzpatrick had some really good games last year in Houston and even had some with Gailey here in Buffalo, but he too can be inaccurate and threw too many picks and did not pull out a game in the closing seconds when it mattered the most.
Washington (who was ranked just ahead of the Bills at 31) with RGIII and Kirk Cousins are a joke. RGIII is a joke with his injuries, inaccuracy, and inability to see downfield and poor pocket presence. RGIII has really fallen since his Rookie of the Year season in 2012 and I'd rather not have Washington's QB situation more than the Bills. .
I don't put two other teams in the bottom five: Tampa Bay and Tennessee ahead of the Bills even though they have rookie QBs Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota starting. The fans have to be excited with the top-two picks in the draft and possibility of having their franchise guy instead of three guys who give their fanbase not a lot to look forward too. If the Bills aren't 32nd, they're no better than 28th in my opinion and that's not good enough. If they were 20th I'd like their chances just to make the playoffs. If they were 15th I'd think maybe home playoff game and maybe a playoff win.
Problem is they're the worst or at best, bottom 5. In this day of age, you don't win the Super Bowl without a great QB, not a great defense (alone that is I still believe in having a good defense). You can win without a great QB and make the playoffs but you need a great team around him. This is where you need to build a great defense and spend a lot of money in free agency on both sides of the ball to make the team as best as possible. With that though means you need average QB play to win, heck, even slightly below average with the talent on this team. But when you're bottom five or last in the league, the best you can do is 8-8, or 9-7 with the obligatory win in a meaningless game even with all this talent.
One last thing, these three QBs all have issues one way or another with accuracy. One can throw it farther than the other but struggles in another segment where that other QB thrives on. With that said, if accuracy is a problem which it is, then I want the guy with the best athleticism and ability to move the ball and make plays with his legs. That eliminates Cassel for me from the discussion. If he ends up being the starter, I'll be upset as it's just another journeyman guy like Fitzpatrick, Orton, and Kevin Kolb. However, we'll all be saying something along the lines of "he's the veteran and he's had some success and he might be the best option with this talent manage the game."
I don't think however the coaches are necessarily enamored with that or him, or else they'd endorse him long ago. So that means E.J. and Taylor are in the discussion and one of those two are the favorites. We know what we got in Cassel, we don't quite know with E.J. although 14 games is a pretty decent sample size. Taylor is the one true unknown despite being in the league 4 seasons with Baltimore and has 4 seasons worth or practices, training camps, and preseasons. In reality, E.J. is the one I want to see most because it means he's been the best and hopefully it means he's our guy. If not, then it's Taylor no question.
I want running to be a part of this offense if accuracy is a problem, which it is. If you can't them throwing accurately, beat them by running and not just the running backs. I mean run with the QBs and run actual design plays specifically for the QB. Unfortunately, if you do get into a slugfest by passing the ball, this team will fail and it will cost them the playoffs.
They ranked well in all the rest of the categories except QB. QB is like the exam and/or mid-term or even project/report that counts for the majority of your overall grade in school. You can do very well on the other tests and homework assignments, but bomb on the final exam or whatever counts for the majority of your final grade and watch your grade drop. This is that exact case. Although in the ESPN article it's not entirely fair to judge because we have no idea who or what the QB situation will be. Maybe a Philip Rivers or Drew Brees or someone you never think possible could be available or maybe they draft one (I assume unless one of these QBs succeeds they will be drafting one next year no doubt about it). So we can't assume next year or the year after they'll be having the same QBs as this year. In fact i'll assume they won't, I'll bet on it.
Back to Benoit's article he ranked the teams by starting QB. He assumes Matt Cassel is 32nd/dead last. There's the consensus if they put either E.J. Manuel or Tyrod Taylor in instead of Cassel that they still are the worst in terms of QB or it's a fancier way of saying they have the worst crop of QBs in the NFL. Looking at the list I can't say 100% they are 32nd but they aren't far. If not 32nd, I'd say 31st, 30th, maybe even 29th. Wooooo!! that's progress. Ugh! So big deal, if they're not 32nd they're still one of the 3-5 worst at best. Cleveland I think is the worst because I think Josh McCown is worse than either of the Bills QBs although McCown was almost here. Should the Bills lose points however since McCown bailed on them and went to Cleveland instead?
Obviously I'd say the Browns are 32nd with McCown starting and the train wreck known as Johnny Manziel on the roster. Heck even our former beloved QB Thad Lewis is there in the mix. The same Lewis who went 2-3 in a backup role behind Manuel two years ago and the same guy who "regressed" badly and was released during the preseason last year.
I think Houston could be worse than the Bills as well as currently Brian Hoyer is their starter with Ryan Mallett as their backup maybe competing for the starting job. Doesn't matter if you have two quarterbacks you have none. Mallett did not really impress me and Hoyer was so awful down the stretch for Cleveland last year it made Kyle Orton look like Tom Brady.
The Jets also might be worse as well as Geno Smith is the starter as determined by Chan Gailey already without a competition with fellow backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith is terrible as he's horribly inaccurate and is a turnover machine who was benched several times last year in favor of an aging and ineffective Michael Vick. Fitzpatrick had some really good games last year in Houston and even had some with Gailey here in Buffalo, but he too can be inaccurate and threw too many picks and did not pull out a game in the closing seconds when it mattered the most.
Washington (who was ranked just ahead of the Bills at 31) with RGIII and Kirk Cousins are a joke. RGIII is a joke with his injuries, inaccuracy, and inability to see downfield and poor pocket presence. RGIII has really fallen since his Rookie of the Year season in 2012 and I'd rather not have Washington's QB situation more than the Bills. .
I don't put two other teams in the bottom five: Tampa Bay and Tennessee ahead of the Bills even though they have rookie QBs Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota starting. The fans have to be excited with the top-two picks in the draft and possibility of having their franchise guy instead of three guys who give their fanbase not a lot to look forward too. If the Bills aren't 32nd, they're no better than 28th in my opinion and that's not good enough. If they were 20th I'd like their chances just to make the playoffs. If they were 15th I'd think maybe home playoff game and maybe a playoff win.
Problem is they're the worst or at best, bottom 5. In this day of age, you don't win the Super Bowl without a great QB, not a great defense (alone that is I still believe in having a good defense). You can win without a great QB and make the playoffs but you need a great team around him. This is where you need to build a great defense and spend a lot of money in free agency on both sides of the ball to make the team as best as possible. With that though means you need average QB play to win, heck, even slightly below average with the talent on this team. But when you're bottom five or last in the league, the best you can do is 8-8, or 9-7 with the obligatory win in a meaningless game even with all this talent.
One last thing, these three QBs all have issues one way or another with accuracy. One can throw it farther than the other but struggles in another segment where that other QB thrives on. With that said, if accuracy is a problem which it is, then I want the guy with the best athleticism and ability to move the ball and make plays with his legs. That eliminates Cassel for me from the discussion. If he ends up being the starter, I'll be upset as it's just another journeyman guy like Fitzpatrick, Orton, and Kevin Kolb. However, we'll all be saying something along the lines of "he's the veteran and he's had some success and he might be the best option with this talent manage the game."
I don't think however the coaches are necessarily enamored with that or him, or else they'd endorse him long ago. So that means E.J. and Taylor are in the discussion and one of those two are the favorites. We know what we got in Cassel, we don't quite know with E.J. although 14 games is a pretty decent sample size. Taylor is the one true unknown despite being in the league 4 seasons with Baltimore and has 4 seasons worth or practices, training camps, and preseasons. In reality, E.J. is the one I want to see most because it means he's been the best and hopefully it means he's our guy. If not, then it's Taylor no question.
I want running to be a part of this offense if accuracy is a problem, which it is. If you can't them throwing accurately, beat them by running and not just the running backs. I mean run with the QBs and run actual design plays specifically for the QB. Unfortunately, if you do get into a slugfest by passing the ball, this team will fail and it will cost them the playoffs.
Friday, July 3, 2015
Ryan O'Reilly Signs Seven-Year Deal; It's Not Crazy to Think the Sabres Can Make the Playoffs; Looking at Really Quick Turnarounds in One Year
Ryan O'Reilly officially signed a contract extension with the Sabres at 7 years, $52.5 million, the largest in Sabres history at least until Jack Eichel's contract comes up. That doesn't actually kick in until the 2016-17 season. He will actually make $11 million that first season but the thing we focus on is not salary but rather cap hit, which will be $7.5 million. I know it sounds like a lot but it's really not. The fact is the cap is going up because revenues are going up. That is the going rate for a center who is great defensively, at possessing the puck, and on 5-on-5, which is what the game has become.
O'Reilly's cap hit is topped by only elite level players and some players that are better than him, don't cost their team as much against the cap. But they signed their deals within the last couple of years or so and are older than O'Reilly, who is only 24. You have to also take into consideration, this isn't the cap coming out of the 2004-05 lockout, where $7.5 million would have been looked down upon. While his cap number counts 10.5% of the total cap, it would have counted almost double at 19.2% back 10 years ago. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews $10.5 million cap hits count 14.7% of the cap each.
O'Reilly's 5-on-5 numbers are among the best among centers and his points per game over the last four seasons is 19th best among centers (http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=C&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=250&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game). The ones ahead of him are all pretty much elite.
He has great 5-on-5 Corsi numbers despite being on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and with not a lot of skilled talent. Defensively he can shut down any line and has the most takeaways in the NHL the last two years. He also has one of the best even strength points per 60 minutes of any player as well. So yeah, he is not one of the elite number one centers, but he is very good and the going rate will show this will be a bargain in years to come.
The Sabres look to really improve from finishing in last place the last two years with all their additions. Now going from last season's total of 54 points to going into say the low 90s to get into the playoffs seems like a ginormous task. Heck, many think just a 20-point jump is a challenge not 40 points and they'll think that this will be a long rebuild. I am here to tell you that it won't take long even though they were the worst team by miles the last two years.
It wouldn't shock me if they made the playoffs. That's right I think this team can make it because one-year jumps, no matter how bleak it may look, happen on a regular basis in the NHL more than you think. The only way a team does have to go five years or longer to rebuild is because they don't have enough high draft picks and great players. That turns your franchise around quickly, especially in a salary cap era.
It doesn't take much to make the playoffs as if you finish in the top-3 in a division you automatically are locked into a playoff spot. I see the Sabres being better than pretty much every team except Tampa, Montreal (only because they have a great goalie and high point total but that will come down if they don't get better scorers), and Florida I think will be very good but it's only because they've been ahead of the Sabres in the rebuilding department.
It's possible they can finish in the top-3. Detroit is on their way down along with Boston. Ottawa doesn't scare me and Toronto is rebuilding and needs at least one more really great draft. Plus the Sabres were artificially awful as they did everything to ensure they finish 30th for Jack Eichel this past season. If they really tried and got better players by bringing them up or signing them, they could have had 65-70 points, but who wants that? That doesn't get you a potentially elite number one center like Eichel. So don't count last year's point total too much as it was meant to be awful. It wasn't an accident.
I am going to show you non-believers some teams who were awful and turned it around quickly, going from worst to first (or close to first in the division) in just one year thanks to some great high draft picks as well as great free agent and trade pickups.
The San Jose Sharks went from 47 and 62 points in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons to making the playoffs in 1997-98 with just 78 points, but it was enough. They picked Patrick Marleau second overall in the 1997 draft behind current Shark Joe Thornton.
Since then, the Sharks were one of the better teams in the NHL missing the playoffs only twice since then, one was just this past season, despite never making it to the finals. Point is, they went from a bottom feeder to drafting and acquiring great talent and for nearly 20 years were a contender to win the Cup.
Speaking of Thornton, the Bruins finished dead last in the 1996-97 season with 61 points and won the lottery and drafted Thornton. The following year, they made the playoffs with 91 points, a 30-point jump. The Bruins then had a bad run post 2004-05 lockout posting 74 and 76 points in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons where the Sabres were at the top of the league and running over the Bruins.
Since then, the Bruins had been on the NHL's best teams with additions of former #2 overall pick Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, and top-5 pick Phil Kessel, who was then spun off for first round draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton.
The Bruins were perennially a 100-point team, winning their first Stanley Cup in 29 years, going to another Stanley Cup Finals, and winning a President's Trophy. Of course the Bruins are stupid trading both Seguin and Hamilton for nothing and they missed the playoffs this past season and are on the decline.
The New York Islanders missed the playoffs seven straight seasons before 2001-02. That year, they hired an unknown Peter Laviolette as their head coach and made some purchases such as Alexi Yashin and Michael Peca among others and went from 52 points the year before to making the playoffs with 96 points (44 point jump).
In recent years, the Islanders missed the playoffs five straight seasons before acquiring some top picks like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo and made the playoffs in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. After missing the playoffs in 2013-14 with just 79 points, the Islanders rebounded this past season after some retooling with 101 points.
The Carolina Hurricanes had 61 and 76 points when Laviolette took over in 2003-04. The next season, he led Carolina to 112 points and the Stanley Cup thanks to a number two overall pick in Eric Staal and other veteran acquisitions.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were awful when they drafted Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. In fact, Crosby's rookie year, they were still the worst team record wise with 58 points. After getting Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal second overall in drafts, the pens went from 58 points to 105 the next season. The year after that, they lost in the Cup finals. The year after that, they won the Cup. They have also been a perennial 100-point team every year since.
The Washington Capitals were really bad before they drafted Alex Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004. They were still bad in Ovechkin's first two years with 70 points each season before adding players like Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green (when he was an offensive machine) to finish with 94 points in 2007-08 and win the Southeast Division. They have made the playoffs all but one season since and even won the President's Trophy in 2009-10.
The Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs six straight seasons before having a 101-point season in 2009-10. Along the way, the Kings had some high draft picks such as Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and two other top-5 picks were traded for pieces such as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, which helped them win two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014.
The Philadelphia Flyers had a season to forget in 2006-07 where they only had 56 points, worst in the NHL and worst in franchise history. That was the same season where they were destroyed by the Sabres 9-1 and Ken Hitchcock and many of the front office staff were fired. I am sure that 56 points was no accident they probably thought they'd win the Cup or something and then realized we need to retool.
They traded a lot of awful pieces, brought in some of their young talented prospects, brought in players such as Danny Briere, Marty Biron, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen and drafted James Van Riemsdyk second overall. The flyers jumped from 56 points to 95 in 2007-08 and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals in one year. Two years later, they lost in the Staney Cup Finals.
Ryan O'Reilly's old team the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in 2012-13, they won the draft lottery and drafted Nate MacKinnon to go along with other top-2 draft picks Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. the very next season saw the Avalanche jump to 112 points and won the division.
The Montreal Canadiens were the third-worst team and worst in the Eastern Conference with 78 points. They ended up getting a new coach (Michel Therrian) and GM (Marc Bergevin) and a few other things and went from worst to first winning the division in 2012-13. They finished with 100 and 110 points and another division the next two seasons and have been one of the better teams in the East in terms of record. I don't know how exactly, outside of Carey Price and PK Subban they don't have much. They can't score and their forwards aren't that great. They drafted Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012 and he's been decent, he hasn't lived up to the hype of his draft status.
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to be the team to beat for years to come thanks to their high draft picks. They had the third-worst record in 2012-13 but rebounded to 101 points the following season. This past season, they had 108 points and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago. Thanks to first overall pick Steven Stamkos and second overall pick defenseman Victor Hedman along with gems like second round pick Nikita Kucherov and undrafted free agent turned sensation Tyler Johnson, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. They will be the team that wins Cups and the Sabres will have to fight them to get there. Even 2013 third overall pick Jonathan Drouin hasn't done much. He spent 2013-14 in the juniors and didn't contribute a whole lot this season as he was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. When he does live up to his potential, watch out.
The Blackhawks have been the gold standard for the NHL the last 7-8 years, winning three of the last six Stanley Cups and lost in the conference finals two other times. Before that, they were one of the worst teams not only in the NHL but in all professional sports. They missed the playoffs 9 out of 10 seasons and were considered a laughing stock. The fans didn't go to Blackhawk games, instead they went to the AHL Chicago Wolves games. But they drafted Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and along with two of the best defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, and others they built what is somewhat of a dynasty. In Kane and Toews first season, they went from 71 points to 88, just missing the playoffs but the groundwork for success was laid out.
The Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are two teams on the rise. The Panthers went from 66 points two seasons ago to 91 this past season. They have had three top-3 picks in recent years; Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad, who have helped this young team develop and win quickly.
The Blue Jackets don't have a ton of high draft picks except 4th overall pick Ryan Johansen, 3rd overall pick Jack Johnson, who's done well since being traded by the Kings, and 2nd overall pick defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been injured a lot and has not lived up to the hype. But the players they get off of other teams such as Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Johnson, and Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky have helped turn this moribund franchise into a young promising playoff team. They went from a league worst 65 points in 2011-12 to just missing the playoffs by one point in 2012-13. They made the playoffs in 2013-14 with 93 points, but missed the playoffs this season despite having 89 points with over 500 man games lost due to injury.
So as you see, it doesn't take a lot to get your team from the bottom to just making the playoffs the following season. Even at worst, it might take two years but even the year before shows the team just barely misses the playoffs and shows tremendous progress. It's not that hard as long as you rebuild the right way, which i believe the Sabres did.
O'Reilly's cap hit is topped by only elite level players and some players that are better than him, don't cost their team as much against the cap. But they signed their deals within the last couple of years or so and are older than O'Reilly, who is only 24. You have to also take into consideration, this isn't the cap coming out of the 2004-05 lockout, where $7.5 million would have been looked down upon. While his cap number counts 10.5% of the total cap, it would have counted almost double at 19.2% back 10 years ago. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews $10.5 million cap hits count 14.7% of the cap each.
O'Reilly's 5-on-5 numbers are among the best among centers and his points per game over the last four seasons is 19th best among centers (http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=C&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=250&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game). The ones ahead of him are all pretty much elite.
He has great 5-on-5 Corsi numbers despite being on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and with not a lot of skilled talent. Defensively he can shut down any line and has the most takeaways in the NHL the last two years. He also has one of the best even strength points per 60 minutes of any player as well. So yeah, he is not one of the elite number one centers, but he is very good and the going rate will show this will be a bargain in years to come.
The Sabres look to really improve from finishing in last place the last two years with all their additions. Now going from last season's total of 54 points to going into say the low 90s to get into the playoffs seems like a ginormous task. Heck, many think just a 20-point jump is a challenge not 40 points and they'll think that this will be a long rebuild. I am here to tell you that it won't take long even though they were the worst team by miles the last two years.
It wouldn't shock me if they made the playoffs. That's right I think this team can make it because one-year jumps, no matter how bleak it may look, happen on a regular basis in the NHL more than you think. The only way a team does have to go five years or longer to rebuild is because they don't have enough high draft picks and great players. That turns your franchise around quickly, especially in a salary cap era.
It doesn't take much to make the playoffs as if you finish in the top-3 in a division you automatically are locked into a playoff spot. I see the Sabres being better than pretty much every team except Tampa, Montreal (only because they have a great goalie and high point total but that will come down if they don't get better scorers), and Florida I think will be very good but it's only because they've been ahead of the Sabres in the rebuilding department.
It's possible they can finish in the top-3. Detroit is on their way down along with Boston. Ottawa doesn't scare me and Toronto is rebuilding and needs at least one more really great draft. Plus the Sabres were artificially awful as they did everything to ensure they finish 30th for Jack Eichel this past season. If they really tried and got better players by bringing them up or signing them, they could have had 65-70 points, but who wants that? That doesn't get you a potentially elite number one center like Eichel. So don't count last year's point total too much as it was meant to be awful. It wasn't an accident.
I am going to show you non-believers some teams who were awful and turned it around quickly, going from worst to first (or close to first in the division) in just one year thanks to some great high draft picks as well as great free agent and trade pickups.
The San Jose Sharks went from 47 and 62 points in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons to making the playoffs in 1997-98 with just 78 points, but it was enough. They picked Patrick Marleau second overall in the 1997 draft behind current Shark Joe Thornton.
Since then, the Sharks were one of the better teams in the NHL missing the playoffs only twice since then, one was just this past season, despite never making it to the finals. Point is, they went from a bottom feeder to drafting and acquiring great talent and for nearly 20 years were a contender to win the Cup.
Speaking of Thornton, the Bruins finished dead last in the 1996-97 season with 61 points and won the lottery and drafted Thornton. The following year, they made the playoffs with 91 points, a 30-point jump. The Bruins then had a bad run post 2004-05 lockout posting 74 and 76 points in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons where the Sabres were at the top of the league and running over the Bruins.
Since then, the Bruins had been on the NHL's best teams with additions of former #2 overall pick Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, and top-5 pick Phil Kessel, who was then spun off for first round draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton.
The Bruins were perennially a 100-point team, winning their first Stanley Cup in 29 years, going to another Stanley Cup Finals, and winning a President's Trophy. Of course the Bruins are stupid trading both Seguin and Hamilton for nothing and they missed the playoffs this past season and are on the decline.
The New York Islanders missed the playoffs seven straight seasons before 2001-02. That year, they hired an unknown Peter Laviolette as their head coach and made some purchases such as Alexi Yashin and Michael Peca among others and went from 52 points the year before to making the playoffs with 96 points (44 point jump).
In recent years, the Islanders missed the playoffs five straight seasons before acquiring some top picks like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo and made the playoffs in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. After missing the playoffs in 2013-14 with just 79 points, the Islanders rebounded this past season after some retooling with 101 points.
The Carolina Hurricanes had 61 and 76 points when Laviolette took over in 2003-04. The next season, he led Carolina to 112 points and the Stanley Cup thanks to a number two overall pick in Eric Staal and other veteran acquisitions.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were awful when they drafted Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. In fact, Crosby's rookie year, they were still the worst team record wise with 58 points. After getting Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal second overall in drafts, the pens went from 58 points to 105 the next season. The year after that, they lost in the Cup finals. The year after that, they won the Cup. They have also been a perennial 100-point team every year since.
The Washington Capitals were really bad before they drafted Alex Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004. They were still bad in Ovechkin's first two years with 70 points each season before adding players like Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green (when he was an offensive machine) to finish with 94 points in 2007-08 and win the Southeast Division. They have made the playoffs all but one season since and even won the President's Trophy in 2009-10.
The Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs six straight seasons before having a 101-point season in 2009-10. Along the way, the Kings had some high draft picks such as Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and two other top-5 picks were traded for pieces such as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, which helped them win two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014.
The Philadelphia Flyers had a season to forget in 2006-07 where they only had 56 points, worst in the NHL and worst in franchise history. That was the same season where they were destroyed by the Sabres 9-1 and Ken Hitchcock and many of the front office staff were fired. I am sure that 56 points was no accident they probably thought they'd win the Cup or something and then realized we need to retool.
They traded a lot of awful pieces, brought in some of their young talented prospects, brought in players such as Danny Briere, Marty Biron, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen and drafted James Van Riemsdyk second overall. The flyers jumped from 56 points to 95 in 2007-08 and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals in one year. Two years later, they lost in the Staney Cup Finals.
Ryan O'Reilly's old team the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in 2012-13, they won the draft lottery and drafted Nate MacKinnon to go along with other top-2 draft picks Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. the very next season saw the Avalanche jump to 112 points and won the division.
The Montreal Canadiens were the third-worst team and worst in the Eastern Conference with 78 points. They ended up getting a new coach (Michel Therrian) and GM (Marc Bergevin) and a few other things and went from worst to first winning the division in 2012-13. They finished with 100 and 110 points and another division the next two seasons and have been one of the better teams in the East in terms of record. I don't know how exactly, outside of Carey Price and PK Subban they don't have much. They can't score and their forwards aren't that great. They drafted Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012 and he's been decent, he hasn't lived up to the hype of his draft status.
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to be the team to beat for years to come thanks to their high draft picks. They had the third-worst record in 2012-13 but rebounded to 101 points the following season. This past season, they had 108 points and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago. Thanks to first overall pick Steven Stamkos and second overall pick defenseman Victor Hedman along with gems like second round pick Nikita Kucherov and undrafted free agent turned sensation Tyler Johnson, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. They will be the team that wins Cups and the Sabres will have to fight them to get there. Even 2013 third overall pick Jonathan Drouin hasn't done much. He spent 2013-14 in the juniors and didn't contribute a whole lot this season as he was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. When he does live up to his potential, watch out.
The Blackhawks have been the gold standard for the NHL the last 7-8 years, winning three of the last six Stanley Cups and lost in the conference finals two other times. Before that, they were one of the worst teams not only in the NHL but in all professional sports. They missed the playoffs 9 out of 10 seasons and were considered a laughing stock. The fans didn't go to Blackhawk games, instead they went to the AHL Chicago Wolves games. But they drafted Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and along with two of the best defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, and others they built what is somewhat of a dynasty. In Kane and Toews first season, they went from 71 points to 88, just missing the playoffs but the groundwork for success was laid out.
The Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are two teams on the rise. The Panthers went from 66 points two seasons ago to 91 this past season. They have had three top-3 picks in recent years; Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad, who have helped this young team develop and win quickly.
The Blue Jackets don't have a ton of high draft picks except 4th overall pick Ryan Johansen, 3rd overall pick Jack Johnson, who's done well since being traded by the Kings, and 2nd overall pick defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been injured a lot and has not lived up to the hype. But the players they get off of other teams such as Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Johnson, and Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky have helped turn this moribund franchise into a young promising playoff team. They went from a league worst 65 points in 2011-12 to just missing the playoffs by one point in 2012-13. They made the playoffs in 2013-14 with 93 points, but missed the playoffs this season despite having 89 points with over 500 man games lost due to injury.
So as you see, it doesn't take a lot to get your team from the bottom to just making the playoffs the following season. Even at worst, it might take two years but even the year before shows the team just barely misses the playoffs and shows tremendous progress. It's not that hard as long as you rebuild the right way, which i believe the Sabres did.
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