Ryan O'Reilly officially signed a contract extension with the Sabres at 7 years, $52.5 million, the largest in Sabres history at least until Jack Eichel's contract comes up. That doesn't actually kick in until the 2016-17 season. He will actually make $11 million that first season but the thing we focus on is not salary but rather cap hit, which will be $7.5 million. I know it sounds like a lot but it's really not. The fact is the cap is going up because revenues are going up. That is the going rate for a center who is great defensively, at possessing the puck, and on 5-on-5, which is what the game has become.
O'Reilly's cap hit is topped by only elite level players and some players that are better than him, don't cost their team as much against the cap. But they signed their deals within the last couple of years or so and are older than O'Reilly, who is only 24. You have to also take into consideration, this isn't the cap coming out of the 2004-05 lockout, where $7.5 million would have been looked down upon. While his cap number counts 10.5% of the total cap, it would have counted almost double at 19.2% back 10 years ago. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews $10.5 million cap hits count 14.7% of the cap each.
O'Reilly's 5-on-5 numbers are among the best among centers and his points per game over the last four seasons is 19th best among centers (http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=C&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=250&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game). The ones ahead of him are all pretty much elite.
He has great 5-on-5 Corsi numbers despite being on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and with not a lot of skilled talent. Defensively he can shut down any line and has the most takeaways in the NHL the last two years. He also has one of the best even strength points per 60 minutes of any player as well. So yeah, he is not one of the elite number one centers, but he is very good and the going rate will show this will be a bargain in years to come.
The Sabres look to really improve from finishing in last place the last two years with all their additions. Now going from last season's total of 54 points to going into say the low 90s to get into the playoffs seems like a ginormous task. Heck, many think just a 20-point jump is a challenge not 40 points and they'll think that this will be a long rebuild. I am here to tell you that it won't take long even though they were the worst team by miles the last two years.
It wouldn't shock me if they made the playoffs. That's right I think this team can make it because one-year jumps, no matter how bleak it may look, happen on a regular basis in the NHL more than you think. The only way a team does have to go five years or longer to rebuild is because they don't have enough high draft picks and great players. That turns your franchise around quickly, especially in a salary cap era.
It doesn't take much to make the playoffs as if you finish in the top-3 in a division you automatically are locked into a playoff spot. I see the Sabres being better than pretty much every team except Tampa, Montreal (only because they have a great goalie and high point total but that will come down if they don't get better scorers), and Florida I think will be very good but it's only because they've been ahead of the Sabres in the rebuilding department.
It's possible they can finish in the top-3. Detroit is on their way down along with Boston. Ottawa doesn't scare me and Toronto is rebuilding and needs at least one more really great draft. Plus the Sabres were artificially awful as they did everything to ensure they finish 30th for Jack Eichel this past season. If they really tried and got better players by bringing them up or signing them, they could have had 65-70 points, but who wants that? That doesn't get you a potentially elite number one center like Eichel. So don't count last year's point total too much as it was meant to be awful. It wasn't an accident.
I am going to show you non-believers some teams who were awful and turned it around quickly, going from worst to first (or close to first in the division) in just one year thanks to some great high draft picks as well as great free agent and trade pickups.
The San Jose Sharks went from 47 and 62 points in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons to making the playoffs in 1997-98 with just 78 points, but it was enough. They picked Patrick Marleau second overall in the 1997 draft behind current Shark Joe Thornton.
Since then, the Sharks were one of the better teams in the NHL missing the playoffs only twice since then, one was just this past season, despite never making it to the finals. Point is, they went from a bottom feeder to drafting and acquiring great talent and for nearly 20 years were a contender to win the Cup.
Speaking of Thornton, the Bruins finished dead last in the 1996-97 season with 61 points and won the lottery and drafted Thornton. The following year, they made the playoffs with 91 points, a 30-point jump. The Bruins then had a bad run post 2004-05 lockout posting 74 and 76 points in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons where the Sabres were at the top of the league and running over the Bruins.
Since then, the Bruins had been on the NHL's best teams with additions of former #2 overall pick Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, and top-5 pick Phil Kessel, who was then spun off for first round draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton.
The Bruins were perennially a 100-point team, winning their first Stanley Cup in 29 years, going to another Stanley Cup Finals, and winning a President's Trophy. Of course the Bruins are stupid trading both Seguin and Hamilton for nothing and they missed the playoffs this past season and are on the decline.
The New York Islanders missed the playoffs seven straight seasons before 2001-02. That year, they hired an unknown Peter Laviolette as their head coach and made some purchases such as Alexi Yashin and Michael Peca among others and went from 52 points the year before to making the playoffs with 96 points (44 point jump).
In recent years, the Islanders missed the playoffs five straight seasons before acquiring some top picks like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo and made the playoffs in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. After missing the playoffs in 2013-14 with just 79 points, the Islanders rebounded this past season after some retooling with 101 points.
The Carolina Hurricanes had 61 and 76 points when Laviolette took over in 2003-04. The next season, he led Carolina to 112 points and the Stanley Cup thanks to a number two overall pick in Eric Staal and other veteran acquisitions.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were awful when they drafted Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. In fact, Crosby's rookie year, they were still the worst team record wise with 58 points. After getting Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal second overall in drafts, the pens went from 58 points to 105 the next season. The year after that, they lost in the Cup finals. The year after that, they won the Cup. They have also been a perennial 100-point team every year since.
The Washington Capitals were really bad before they drafted Alex Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004. They were still bad in Ovechkin's first two years with 70 points each season before adding players like Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green (when he was an offensive machine) to finish with 94 points in 2007-08 and win the Southeast Division. They have made the playoffs all but one season since and even won the President's Trophy in 2009-10.
The Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs six straight seasons before having a 101-point season in 2009-10. Along the way, the Kings had some high draft picks such as Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and two other top-5 picks were traded for pieces such as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, which helped them win two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014.
The Philadelphia Flyers had a season to forget in 2006-07 where they only had 56 points, worst in the NHL and worst in franchise history. That was the same season where they were destroyed by the Sabres 9-1 and Ken Hitchcock and many of the front office staff were fired. I am sure that 56 points was no accident they probably thought they'd win the Cup or something and then realized we need to retool.
They traded a lot of awful pieces, brought in some of their young talented prospects, brought in players such as Danny Briere, Marty Biron, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen and drafted James Van Riemsdyk second overall. The flyers jumped from 56 points to 95 in 2007-08 and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals in one year. Two years later, they lost in the Staney Cup Finals.
Ryan O'Reilly's old team the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in 2012-13, they won the draft lottery and drafted Nate MacKinnon to go along with other top-2 draft picks Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. the very next season saw the Avalanche jump to 112 points and won the division.
The Montreal Canadiens were the third-worst team and worst in the Eastern Conference with 78 points. They ended up getting a new coach (Michel Therrian) and GM (Marc Bergevin) and a few other things and went from worst to first winning the division in 2012-13. They finished with 100 and 110 points and another division the next two seasons and have been one of the better teams in the East in terms of record. I don't know how exactly, outside of Carey Price and PK Subban they don't have much. They can't score and their forwards aren't that great. They drafted Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012 and he's been decent, he hasn't lived up to the hype of his draft status.
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to be the team to beat for years to come thanks to their high draft picks. They had the third-worst record in 2012-13 but rebounded to 101 points the following season. This past season, they had 108 points and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago. Thanks to first overall pick Steven Stamkos and second overall pick defenseman Victor Hedman along with gems like second round pick Nikita Kucherov and undrafted free agent turned sensation Tyler Johnson, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. They will be the team that wins Cups and the Sabres will have to fight them to get there. Even 2013 third overall pick Jonathan Drouin hasn't done much. He spent 2013-14 in the juniors and didn't contribute a whole lot this season as he was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. When he does live up to his potential, watch out.
The Blackhawks have been the gold standard for the NHL the last 7-8 years, winning three of the last six Stanley Cups and lost in the conference finals two other times. Before that, they were one of the worst teams not only in the NHL but in all professional sports. They missed the playoffs 9 out of 10 seasons and were considered a laughing stock. The fans didn't go to Blackhawk games, instead they went to the AHL Chicago Wolves games. But they drafted Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and along with two of the best defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, and others they built what is somewhat of a dynasty. In Kane and Toews first season, they went from 71 points to 88, just missing the playoffs but the groundwork for success was laid out.
The Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are two teams on the rise. The Panthers went from 66 points two seasons ago to 91 this past season. They have had three top-3 picks in recent years; Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad, who have helped this young team develop and win quickly.
The Blue Jackets don't have a ton of high draft picks except 4th overall pick Ryan Johansen, 3rd overall pick Jack Johnson, who's done well since being traded by the Kings, and 2nd overall pick defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been injured a lot and has not lived up to the hype. But the players they get off of other teams such as Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Johnson, and Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky have helped turn this moribund franchise into a young promising playoff team. They went from a league worst 65 points in 2011-12 to just missing the playoffs by one point in 2012-13. They made the playoffs in 2013-14 with 93 points, but missed the playoffs this season despite having 89 points with over 500 man games lost due to injury.
So as you see, it doesn't take a lot to get your team from the bottom to just making the playoffs the following season. Even at worst, it might take two years but even the year before shows the team just barely misses the playoffs and shows tremendous progress. It's not that hard as long as you rebuild the right way, which i believe the Sabres did.
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