I am a longtime Buffalo Sports Fan as well as a longtime listener of local sports talk on WGR 550 and even back in the day on WBEN 930 before WGR became exclusively an all-sports station. Even when WNSA, owned by the now defunct Empire Sports Network, was on the air, it was awesome to listen to with such local sports personalities as Mike Schopp ("Sports Talk for Smart People" or "Sports Talk for Smart-Asses" as one Chuck Dickerson once said lol), Howard Simon, Art Wander, Bob Koshinski, Jim Brinson, and Zig Fracassi. I've had my ups and downs in all my years listening to the local sports talk here in Buffalo. But lately, the past couple of weeks or so I've had some issues with the local sports talk radio, mostly WGR 550. I like WGR but sometimes some of the hosts have a tendency to take a cheap shot at some nationally syndicated radio hosts. I find it a little petty and stupid at times.
Back in June, WGR replaced the nationally syndicated Colin Cowherd with a year-round talk show about the Buffalo Sabres with Kevin Sylvester as host. Nothing personal against Sylvester, but I am not a fan of listening him. I never was a fan of his dating back to the days he was on WGR before he was fired 8 years ago and replaced by current morning show hosts Howard Simon and Jeremy White. Sylvester is pretty corny and has nothing interesting to offer. Then for some stupid reason, they have Andrew Peters co-hosting with him. When I thought Peters couldn't suck at anything worse than he did at hockey, he proved me wrong as listening to him talk is a lot worse. The fact that they have a Sabres show that is all year long to me is a little ridiculous. How much can we talk about the Sabres? I know this is Buffalo but we can only talk so much Sabres. July and August are slow months for hockey and unless we got some major superstar, there's only so much you can talk about. It does not make for good radio. I've listened only a little of the show and its pretty boring.
As for Cowherd, I used to not like him about 4-5 years ago. But I had a problem that I am about to admit to you during that time. I was a very big "homer." I could not think or act straight when listening or talking sports. It was all about the Bills and Sabres and nothing else. No one could ever criticize my teams. But over time, I listened more to Cowherd and I started to think clearly and gained more better perspective and wisdom and learned how to take the emotion out of it. He began to make so much sense. I started to agree more and more because he was usually right about things. He is very smart. I love how Cowherd makes so much sense about certain points. I love how he talks about the business and economic side of sports more than just Xs and Os. That makes for so much more interesting radio and he points out to people and is very blunt about how certain things are good for his show and ratings and others would take him off the air. I owe a lot to Cowherd for showing me the error of my ways in the past about sports and even life in general. Plus he can down right hilarious and not like how the local guys act like 8 year olds. He can be offensive and I am OK with that!! Sure he talks a lot about Lebron or the Patriots or the Yankees and does not talk hockey, but that's OK. Hockey talk can be pretty boring outside of Buffalo as it does not draw the national attention like football and basketball do. Sorry, that's the truth. I don't miss Cowherd because of the ESPN Radio app on my phone and I put that on a while ago so I could listen the full 3 hours of his show instead of the two they played here on WGR. I also like Jim Rome a lot but I like Cowherd more because sometimes Rome's show can too stupid. But Rome himself can damn funny the way he burns on some of his takes.
Some of the local guys take cheap shots at Cowherd even today and I'm like "dude, he's on ESPN and he has a ton more listeners and probably makes more money than you guys combined. Get over it, you sound pathetic." Just because he doesn't talk hockey or Buffalo sports doesn't mean he's worthless. I'm a huge Buffalo guy and Buffalo Sports fan, but even I have my limits when talking about either team especially when they suck like the Bills have for the last 12 years and the Sabres are too hot and cold. I need my break to listen to important stuff around the country. I like the national perspective every now and then, it makes things more interesting. The Bills are more interesting now because of the moves they made, but before it was painful to listen. When the Sabres struggle, they are hard to talk about or listen. But sometimes, the local guys are homers and shills and the way they talk about the sports here does not make for interesting radio.
Sal Capaccio is interesting to listen to from time to time, but I got to admit, him being a homer at times annoys me. When the Bills are not going good, he does the whole "rah rah" thing and its like OK shut up. Howard Simon and Jeremy White are entertaining most of the times, but sometimes they act like little children and it gets annoying. I also don't like how giddy they get like a school girl when they interview someone. It makes them sound lame and it doesn't make for good radio. I don't like this whole training camp thing where they interview mostly anonymous players and I hear the same old thing from every player and how they are all giddy. They sound so small time and that's why Colin is in the big leagues because he talks Yankees, Patriots, Lebron, Tiger Woods, USC, and so on. We are in the minor leagues, a Mickey Mouse organization if you will. I do like Mike Schopp a lot because he's not a homer even though he is born and raised in WNY. He is brilliant and even has a Cowherd like way to his methods with his perspective. He sometimes though tries too hard to prove how smart he is whereas Cowherd is so natural with the way he does things and then you see how brilliant he really is. But Schopp is not like Sal or whoever that says "the Bills are awesome!!" Schopp criticizes both the Bills and Sabres for their management and such. People don't like Schopp, but he make things very interesting and it drives up the ratings. Bulldog is a longtime fan and I like that. But I don't like how he makes no sense and just rambles on nonstop and makes noises instead of words.
Before I go, I like John Murphy's show at night. I always liked Murph and he does things with dignity and class. His interviews with players are first class. He is not a shill and does not get all giddy like a school girl. He treats them like adults and does not treat them any different because they are athletes. Murph is smart and like one of my favorites to listen to, former Bills GM Bill Polian, makes me smarter when I listen to him. I'm sure many of you disagree and would love to hear from you.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Is There A Problem With Lindy Ruff?
Ever since the season ended with the Buffalo Sabres missing the playoffs, Lindy Ruff has been the topic of interest or concern. Fans and even media wonder whether Lindy should be fired or kept for another year. Sure, Terry Pegula has given both Ruff and Darcy Regier a vote of confidence and assures that both aren't going anywhere for the foreseeable future much to the chagrin to many Sabres fans. But, players have come out either publicly or secretly and have told what they felt about Ruff that he's too negative and that his coaching style has been too tough or his demeanor has been a problem or whatever. Derek Roy has criticized him in the press after the season. Brad Boyes just signed with the Islanders also criticized Ruff as well. Ruff had spent the second half of the season making Thomas Vanek his personal Whipping Boy. Question is: Is There A Problem With Lindy Ruff? Should he be on the hot seat? Should he be gone?
Ruff has been the Sabres head coach since 1997 and is the longest tenured head coach of any team in the NHL and of any of the four major sports in general. Ruff and Regier (who became the GM also in 1997) are also the longest tenured coach-GM combination currently in professional sports. But has it been too long? Many fans feel yes. As do I. Look, I like longevity, but you have to earn it. I think of Ruff and Regier as good at what they do, but they never won the Stanley Cup or really been close. They have missed the playoffs six times in the last 10 seasons and it would have been seven out of 10 had they not gone on a huge run at the end of the 2010-11 season to barely make the playoffs. They haven't won a playoff series since 2007. I'm just focusing on Ruff mostly as Darcy is for another time. But it's hard to separate the two as they are inseparable. Again, different time for a different topic.
It's one thing not to win the Cup (they've been to the Finals only once and been to the Conference Finals three other times) but its another to be consistently in the playoffs and be a championship contender on a consistent basis. For example, Jerry Sloan with the Utah Jazz was their head coach for nearly a quarter of a century and even though they never won an NBA title, his teams were almost always in the playoffs (I think they missed about three or four times total) and were always in the hunt for the title. That's fine. Or in the NFL, Bill Cowher was the Steelers head coach for 15 years and won just ONE Super Bowl and went to another. But for those 15 years, his teams almost always made the playoffs and its really tough to make the playoffs in the NFL as only six teams out of 16 in each conference make the playoffs and four of those are division winners. It's not like the NHL where you have to better than half the conference in order to make the playoffs. Bobby Cox with the Atlanta Braves, won 15 consecutive division titles, but one the World Series only once. MLB is even tougher with just four teams each league with three division winners and one wild card. This year, a second wild card has been added, but its still tough to make the postseason. And the Sabres have been in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference in six out of the last 10 seasons and three of the last five. So if they miss the playoffs, he should be gone. Heck, he should be gone now. Good teams fire their coaches and good coaches get fired. That's the way it works. He'll get a job somewhere no doubt. Good for him. But here I think it's time for a change.
I believe there is some validity to what people say when Lindy "ruins" offensive players. I don't know about ruins, but he can hold them back. Some guys come here and are successful before and successful when they leave, but struggle here. Why is that? Not everybody obviously as Danny Briere and Chris Drury flourished here under Lindy's "system." But there seems to be a trend with offensive players struggling more times than not. Of course we never had a real offensive superstar come in here and Briere and Drury were not superstars when they came here. Brad Boyes, Raffi Torres, Steve Bernier, Dominic Moore, and Rob Niedermayer don't count. Lindy has done well developing the home grown talent over the years. He has not been able to get Roy to play on a consistent basis, but that's Roy's problem not Ruff's. Ruff always wants his players to be responsible in their own end and be a two-way offensive-defensive player. They all can't be Michael Peca. It's not easy for some players to be a defensive player. Mostly the players are just offensively gifted.
Of course Regier should get Ruff more players that fit his style. But you can't always have players that fit your need on your team and you should be able to adjust to your player's strengths and not their weaknesses. Ruff takes time away from offensively gifted players if they don't play well defensively even if they need offense and that player could help them. Ruff is very stubborn. I really don't care if a player can't play defense if he can score many goals. Do what's best for the team by allowing that player to do what he does best. He's on your team whether you like it or not, you might as well make the best of it. Great coaches find ways to win and get the most out of their players whether they fit their system or not. Ruff is a really good coach, but his stubbornness and pride get in the way of much needed "W's." Many fans believe that Ruff has some sort of reputation for not maximizing a player's offensive potential. They feel that big time offensive free agents won't sign here because they won't wanna play for Ruff. I don't know how true it is but if its true, then maybe its time for Ruff to go. If he is going to keep big free agent scorers from coming here, then he needs to go. It's time. I don't want to be like "(Insert player here) won't come here and even if he does, Ruff will just suck the life out of him and he won't be productive."
I'm sorry, you can never win a championship with that mentality or his negative attitude. He did briefly change his style of coaching when they came out of the lockout and for two years were one of the best teams in the NHL. He was awarded the coach of the year award for turning around the club after its fall prior to the lockout. Then after he lost his best players, he went back to old habits pre-lockout. I think Lindy is getting burned out from this and who can blame him? 15 years is a long time to be a coach for any one team. Unless he finds ways to win and do the best to get along with what he has, this team won't win a championship. It's more likely looking back at recent history that this team either won't make the playoffs or barely make and lose in the first round. Mr. Pegula, if your plan is to win a Cup soon, this simply will not do and changes need to be made. Hopefully Darcy can get the right players.
Ruff has been the Sabres head coach since 1997 and is the longest tenured head coach of any team in the NHL and of any of the four major sports in general. Ruff and Regier (who became the GM also in 1997) are also the longest tenured coach-GM combination currently in professional sports. But has it been too long? Many fans feel yes. As do I. Look, I like longevity, but you have to earn it. I think of Ruff and Regier as good at what they do, but they never won the Stanley Cup or really been close. They have missed the playoffs six times in the last 10 seasons and it would have been seven out of 10 had they not gone on a huge run at the end of the 2010-11 season to barely make the playoffs. They haven't won a playoff series since 2007. I'm just focusing on Ruff mostly as Darcy is for another time. But it's hard to separate the two as they are inseparable. Again, different time for a different topic.
It's one thing not to win the Cup (they've been to the Finals only once and been to the Conference Finals three other times) but its another to be consistently in the playoffs and be a championship contender on a consistent basis. For example, Jerry Sloan with the Utah Jazz was their head coach for nearly a quarter of a century and even though they never won an NBA title, his teams were almost always in the playoffs (I think they missed about three or four times total) and were always in the hunt for the title. That's fine. Or in the NFL, Bill Cowher was the Steelers head coach for 15 years and won just ONE Super Bowl and went to another. But for those 15 years, his teams almost always made the playoffs and its really tough to make the playoffs in the NFL as only six teams out of 16 in each conference make the playoffs and four of those are division winners. It's not like the NHL where you have to better than half the conference in order to make the playoffs. Bobby Cox with the Atlanta Braves, won 15 consecutive division titles, but one the World Series only once. MLB is even tougher with just four teams each league with three division winners and one wild card. This year, a second wild card has been added, but its still tough to make the postseason. And the Sabres have been in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference in six out of the last 10 seasons and three of the last five. So if they miss the playoffs, he should be gone. Heck, he should be gone now. Good teams fire their coaches and good coaches get fired. That's the way it works. He'll get a job somewhere no doubt. Good for him. But here I think it's time for a change.
I believe there is some validity to what people say when Lindy "ruins" offensive players. I don't know about ruins, but he can hold them back. Some guys come here and are successful before and successful when they leave, but struggle here. Why is that? Not everybody obviously as Danny Briere and Chris Drury flourished here under Lindy's "system." But there seems to be a trend with offensive players struggling more times than not. Of course we never had a real offensive superstar come in here and Briere and Drury were not superstars when they came here. Brad Boyes, Raffi Torres, Steve Bernier, Dominic Moore, and Rob Niedermayer don't count. Lindy has done well developing the home grown talent over the years. He has not been able to get Roy to play on a consistent basis, but that's Roy's problem not Ruff's. Ruff always wants his players to be responsible in their own end and be a two-way offensive-defensive player. They all can't be Michael Peca. It's not easy for some players to be a defensive player. Mostly the players are just offensively gifted.
Of course Regier should get Ruff more players that fit his style. But you can't always have players that fit your need on your team and you should be able to adjust to your player's strengths and not their weaknesses. Ruff takes time away from offensively gifted players if they don't play well defensively even if they need offense and that player could help them. Ruff is very stubborn. I really don't care if a player can't play defense if he can score many goals. Do what's best for the team by allowing that player to do what he does best. He's on your team whether you like it or not, you might as well make the best of it. Great coaches find ways to win and get the most out of their players whether they fit their system or not. Ruff is a really good coach, but his stubbornness and pride get in the way of much needed "W's." Many fans believe that Ruff has some sort of reputation for not maximizing a player's offensive potential. They feel that big time offensive free agents won't sign here because they won't wanna play for Ruff. I don't know how true it is but if its true, then maybe its time for Ruff to go. If he is going to keep big free agent scorers from coming here, then he needs to go. It's time. I don't want to be like "(Insert player here) won't come here and even if he does, Ruff will just suck the life out of him and he won't be productive."
I'm sorry, you can never win a championship with that mentality or his negative attitude. He did briefly change his style of coaching when they came out of the lockout and for two years were one of the best teams in the NHL. He was awarded the coach of the year award for turning around the club after its fall prior to the lockout. Then after he lost his best players, he went back to old habits pre-lockout. I think Lindy is getting burned out from this and who can blame him? 15 years is a long time to be a coach for any one team. Unless he finds ways to win and do the best to get along with what he has, this team won't win a championship. It's more likely looking back at recent history that this team either won't make the playoffs or barely make and lose in the first round. Mr. Pegula, if your plan is to win a Cup soon, this simply will not do and changes need to be made. Hopefully Darcy can get the right players.
Bye Bye Derek Roy
Derek Roy being traded no doubt made a lot of Sabres fans happy yesterday, including myself. It was long overdue. I used to like Roy a lot. But I've gotten tired of his act the last few years. For me it was in the playoffs in 2010 when the 3rd seeded Sabres lost to the Bruins in the first round and he had zero goals that I wanted him gone. Fans disliked him long before. Many feel he's not a good teammate, is a problem in the locker room, is not a leader, not a good character guy, constantly clashes with Lindy Ruff, takes dumb penalties, whines to the refs, fails to show up in big games, fails to make his teammates better, and has a lack of focus because of all the partying that he does off the ice. Roy no doubt was a fairly productive player offensively in his Sabre career as he averaged nearly 0.80 points per game and had scored 18 or more goals in a full season every season from 2005-06 to 2009-10.
But Roy represents and might be the poster child for the "core" that has massively underachieved the last five years after both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere left in 2007. They were the young group of players that would carry this franchise to the promised land and failed to deliver. They had missed the playoffs three out of the last five seasons, including last season where they had the highest payroll in the league after Terry Pegula took over as owner in Feb. 2011. They also did not win a single playoff series. Whether or not these players were mentally tough enough or focused enough or just plain and simple not good enough, they couldn't get the job done. If the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, then this is not good enough and you have to shake up the roster and get better. They already let Tim Connolly leave and traded Paul Gaustad in the last year and now they traded Roy with one year left on his contract.
Roy's best statistical season came in the 2007-08 season, the season after Briere and Drury left, when he recorded 32 goals and 81 points in 78 games. From the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season, Roy averaged 27 goals and averaged 0.92 points per game a season. In the 2010-11 season, Roy was having by far his best season with 10 goals and 35 points in 35 games before he missed the rest of the regular season with a hip injury. This past season, Roy had his career-worst season stats wise (not counting his rookie season where he only played 49 games and the 2010-11 season where he only played 35) as he set career-lows in almost every major offensive statistical category. He scored only 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points, was a -7, and had a 9.7 shooting % (his career average is 12.7). His 0.55 points per game was by far the lowest of his career not counting his rookie season after he had a point a game the year before. By the way, Roy played in 80 of the 82 games this season. His 27 assists this season were only two more than the 25 he had in 35 games the year before. He only had nine more points in 80 games than he had the year before in 35 games. Roy had as many 12 power play assists alone in 2010-11 as he had power play points in 80 games this past season.
To be fair, Roy did come a serious injury that they claim you need two years to recover and he got the injury in December 2010. He in the last year of his 6-year, $24 million deal so he would be in a contract year and he might breakthrough for a chance at a great contract. But the Sabres have been trying to move Roy apparently for two years now and now they got a gritty forward in Steve Ott and a depth defenseman in Adam Pardy. Roy still has some value as he is a top-6 forward and could be a very productive second line center if his head is on straight. He is not a number one center and unfortunately for most of the season he was our number one center as the Sabres had perhaps the worst center depth in the league as any team at the beginning of the season. The Sabres are still looking for a center in free agency or via a trade and they drafted two in the first round in Mikhail Grigorenko and Zemgus Girgensons. Girgensons is supposedly going to play college for Vermont while hopefully Grigorenko makes the team and can be the guy who was potentially the number one pick and compared to Evgeni Malkin before falling to the Sabres at 12. Don't forget the Sabres have Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson as their top-two centers right now and they're both pretty good.
Roy's problem for whatever reason is that he just doesn't make anyone around him better. As a center, that's what you are supposed to do. Even Tim Connolly was better at that than Roy was. Connolly didn't score a ton of goals (never got to 20) and rarely scored when it mattered the most (hasn't scored a playoff goal since Game 1 of the Ottawa Series in 2006 prior to his concussion), but he made the wingers on his line very productive scorers as he was a really good setup man. Roy doesn't do that quite so much. This past season, Drew Stafford and Tomas Vanek were both on lines with Roy, both struggled. Stafford was having an awful year after having 30 the year before while he was with Roy. I think he still had a single digit goal total as late as February before rebounding to score 20 when he was on a line with Ennis at center and Marcus Foligno and they were the best line on the team. Stafford scored 31 in 62 games the year before with I believe Connolly at center. Vanek was on pace for a 40 goal season, but was moved to the line centered by Roy and struggled before finishing strong down the stretch with Hodgson at center. The biggest point of Roy bringing the team down came in 2010-11 when he had 35 points in 35 games. But the Sabres record was 14-17-4 and were 10 points out of the playoffs with him in the lineup. The team outside of Roy struggled. Then after Roy was out, the Sabres went on a tear going 29-12-6 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference as they made the playoffs. I don't care what anyone says, there is some serious validity to Roy being out and the team being well. He played 80 games this past season and the Sabres underachieved and missed the playoffs.
So long Roy. It was nice knowing you.
But Roy represents and might be the poster child for the "core" that has massively underachieved the last five years after both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere left in 2007. They were the young group of players that would carry this franchise to the promised land and failed to deliver. They had missed the playoffs three out of the last five seasons, including last season where they had the highest payroll in the league after Terry Pegula took over as owner in Feb. 2011. They also did not win a single playoff series. Whether or not these players were mentally tough enough or focused enough or just plain and simple not good enough, they couldn't get the job done. If the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, then this is not good enough and you have to shake up the roster and get better. They already let Tim Connolly leave and traded Paul Gaustad in the last year and now they traded Roy with one year left on his contract.
Roy's best statistical season came in the 2007-08 season, the season after Briere and Drury left, when he recorded 32 goals and 81 points in 78 games. From the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season, Roy averaged 27 goals and averaged 0.92 points per game a season. In the 2010-11 season, Roy was having by far his best season with 10 goals and 35 points in 35 games before he missed the rest of the regular season with a hip injury. This past season, Roy had his career-worst season stats wise (not counting his rookie season where he only played 49 games and the 2010-11 season where he only played 35) as he set career-lows in almost every major offensive statistical category. He scored only 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points, was a -7, and had a 9.7 shooting % (his career average is 12.7). His 0.55 points per game was by far the lowest of his career not counting his rookie season after he had a point a game the year before. By the way, Roy played in 80 of the 82 games this season. His 27 assists this season were only two more than the 25 he had in 35 games the year before. He only had nine more points in 80 games than he had the year before in 35 games. Roy had as many 12 power play assists alone in 2010-11 as he had power play points in 80 games this past season.
To be fair, Roy did come a serious injury that they claim you need two years to recover and he got the injury in December 2010. He in the last year of his 6-year, $24 million deal so he would be in a contract year and he might breakthrough for a chance at a great contract. But the Sabres have been trying to move Roy apparently for two years now and now they got a gritty forward in Steve Ott and a depth defenseman in Adam Pardy. Roy still has some value as he is a top-6 forward and could be a very productive second line center if his head is on straight. He is not a number one center and unfortunately for most of the season he was our number one center as the Sabres had perhaps the worst center depth in the league as any team at the beginning of the season. The Sabres are still looking for a center in free agency or via a trade and they drafted two in the first round in Mikhail Grigorenko and Zemgus Girgensons. Girgensons is supposedly going to play college for Vermont while hopefully Grigorenko makes the team and can be the guy who was potentially the number one pick and compared to Evgeni Malkin before falling to the Sabres at 12. Don't forget the Sabres have Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson as their top-two centers right now and they're both pretty good.
Roy's problem for whatever reason is that he just doesn't make anyone around him better. As a center, that's what you are supposed to do. Even Tim Connolly was better at that than Roy was. Connolly didn't score a ton of goals (never got to 20) and rarely scored when it mattered the most (hasn't scored a playoff goal since Game 1 of the Ottawa Series in 2006 prior to his concussion), but he made the wingers on his line very productive scorers as he was a really good setup man. Roy doesn't do that quite so much. This past season, Drew Stafford and Tomas Vanek were both on lines with Roy, both struggled. Stafford was having an awful year after having 30 the year before while he was with Roy. I think he still had a single digit goal total as late as February before rebounding to score 20 when he was on a line with Ennis at center and Marcus Foligno and they were the best line on the team. Stafford scored 31 in 62 games the year before with I believe Connolly at center. Vanek was on pace for a 40 goal season, but was moved to the line centered by Roy and struggled before finishing strong down the stretch with Hodgson at center. The biggest point of Roy bringing the team down came in 2010-11 when he had 35 points in 35 games. But the Sabres record was 14-17-4 and were 10 points out of the playoffs with him in the lineup. The team outside of Roy struggled. Then after Roy was out, the Sabres went on a tear going 29-12-6 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference as they made the playoffs. I don't care what anyone says, there is some serious validity to Roy being out and the team being well. He played 80 games this past season and the Sabres underachieved and missed the playoffs.
So long Roy. It was nice knowing you.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Drafting Forwards in the Top-3 Equal Success
I wrote about how the Sabres should trade up to get into the top-3 of the NHL Draft to take either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-sabres-should-do-trade-up-into-top.html). As I know many of you probably disagree and that's fine. But I am going to prove you wrong because the NHL Draft provides very successful talent immediately as they enter the NHL. I will show you each of the forwards taken in the top-3 in each of the NHL Drafts dating back to 1997 as forward is what the Sabres need. Defensemen taken in the top-3 are successful as well and I could care less about goalies taken in the top-3. But I am focusing on forwards only because that's what the Sabres need most and if they take a defenseman or especially a goalie I will puke. So here are each of the forwards who were taken in the top-3 of each NHL Draft from 1997 to last year:
1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*
30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.
1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*
30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
What the Sabres Should Do; Trade Up Into the Top-3
This will be an interesting off season for the Sabres as this will be Terry Pegula's second off season as team owner. His goal is to win the Stanley Cup and the Sabres struggled most of this past season as they finished a disappointing 9th in the Eastern Conference and out of the playoffs. The Sabres struggled with scoring as they were 16th in scoring despite being something like 25th most of the season. They did improve once Tyler Ennis was healthy and they traded for Cody Hodgson. But it wasn't enough to overcome a terrible mid November to January. The Sabres need an elite scorer/center on this team. Now what do the Sabres do? Do they acquire Rick Nash from Columbus for a very hefty price tag? Do they attempt to acquire the rights to Zach Parise and sign him? I say neither (not that I would hate either move). My move would be to trade up into the NHL Draft with either Edmonton or Columbus and draft either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk.
Darcy Regier needs to call Edmonton and/or Columbus and see what it would take to move into the 1st or 2nd spot in the draft and take an elite player. I know what many of you are thinking; "why would they risk a Russian player at the top of the draft? It would be such a risk!" Negative. In fact, the NHL produces great players at the top of the draft for the last 20 years and these players contribute right away. The success at the top of the draft is more than any other sport, even more than the NFL. Plus you don't have to pay these players a lot as the maximum contract for the 1st overall pick is a 3-year deal worth only $900,000 a season. That's about 1/10th of what you would have to pay one of the top players in the league. I ask, wouldn't you want an elite 30-40 goal scorer for $900,000? I would hope so or else you need your head examined. The Risk-Reward factor is there's almost no risk and a very high reward. I almost believe there's a much greater risk signing a veteran for $7-8 million a year than moving up into the draft to take one of these elite young players. This is why I want this to happen.
Edmonton and Columbus are both terrible and both said they want to trade out. The Sabres are the perfect team to make this deal as their first pick is 12 and they also have the #21, 42, and 44 picks as well. They could and should trade every pick to move up and I would be willing to part ways with a defensive prospect (Mark Pysyk) because we have enough defensemen on this roster and we need forward depth. The goal is to win the Cup now or in the next couple of years. I am not interested in making this team great 4-5 years down the road, I want to win now and drafting in the top-3 would make our team instantly.
For those who are worried about drafting a Russian player, believe me, there is nothing to worry about with Yakupov or Galchenyuk. Both these players want to play here and live here. Yakupov came to Canada at a young age while Galchenyuk was born in the U.S. in Milwaukee and played in Chicago before moving to Canada and teamed with Yakupov. These guys want to play the US/Canada physical style of hockey more than European/Russian style of play. Mikhail Grigorenko was another player considered at the top of the draft and has been compared to Evgeni Malkin. But he has also been a disappointment as he has been inconsistent and has been dropping to perhaps out of the top-10.
I will write another blog in the next day or so that features the success of drafting in the top-3 of the NHL Draft. Darcy, get off your butt and do this please. Thanks.
Darcy Regier needs to call Edmonton and/or Columbus and see what it would take to move into the 1st or 2nd spot in the draft and take an elite player. I know what many of you are thinking; "why would they risk a Russian player at the top of the draft? It would be such a risk!" Negative. In fact, the NHL produces great players at the top of the draft for the last 20 years and these players contribute right away. The success at the top of the draft is more than any other sport, even more than the NFL. Plus you don't have to pay these players a lot as the maximum contract for the 1st overall pick is a 3-year deal worth only $900,000 a season. That's about 1/10th of what you would have to pay one of the top players in the league. I ask, wouldn't you want an elite 30-40 goal scorer for $900,000? I would hope so or else you need your head examined. The Risk-Reward factor is there's almost no risk and a very high reward. I almost believe there's a much greater risk signing a veteran for $7-8 million a year than moving up into the draft to take one of these elite young players. This is why I want this to happen.
Edmonton and Columbus are both terrible and both said they want to trade out. The Sabres are the perfect team to make this deal as their first pick is 12 and they also have the #21, 42, and 44 picks as well. They could and should trade every pick to move up and I would be willing to part ways with a defensive prospect (Mark Pysyk) because we have enough defensemen on this roster and we need forward depth. The goal is to win the Cup now or in the next couple of years. I am not interested in making this team great 4-5 years down the road, I want to win now and drafting in the top-3 would make our team instantly.
For those who are worried about drafting a Russian player, believe me, there is nothing to worry about with Yakupov or Galchenyuk. Both these players want to play here and live here. Yakupov came to Canada at a young age while Galchenyuk was born in the U.S. in Milwaukee and played in Chicago before moving to Canada and teamed with Yakupov. These guys want to play the US/Canada physical style of hockey more than European/Russian style of play. Mikhail Grigorenko was another player considered at the top of the draft and has been compared to Evgeni Malkin. But he has also been a disappointment as he has been inconsistent and has been dropping to perhaps out of the top-10.
I will write another blog in the next day or so that features the success of drafting in the top-3 of the NHL Draft. Darcy, get off your butt and do this please. Thanks.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
How Did the Kings Win?
How did the Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup? They were the first-ever 8th seeded team to win the Stanley Cup. Before this year, no team below a 5th seed and outside of the top-8 in overall NHL standings ever won the Cup. The Kings had 15 loser points and won just 40 of 82 games. So they had a subpar record. Outside of goalie Jonathan Quick and center Enze Kopitar, most of the players had career-worst years. the Kings scored the 2nd fewest goals of any team in the NHL this season, but they allowed the 2nd fewest. They really lacked elite star power on offense. Kopitar is very good but I am not sure he is an elite player. I like Captain Dustin Brown and Mike Richards, who the Kings acquired from Philly after last season. But both struggled in the regular season. They fired head coach Terry Murray in December with a 13-12-4 record. After brief run with interim coach John Stevens, the Kings hired Darryl Sutter as the permanent head coach. Sutter had been a good coach, but many felt his teams underachieved in the playoffs. The Kings did go 25-13-11 with Sutter as coach so the coaching change did work.
The Kings were in 11th place on March 11th, but were still in contention for the Pacific Division. They lost out to Phoenix and settled for 8th place in a very competitive Western Conference. They were 9-2-3 in their final 14 games, enough to lift them into the playoffs. They took on the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in the 1st round and many, including myself, predicted the Canucks would win and play for the Stanley Cup. Instead the Kings, behind Quick, shut down the high-scoring Canucks in five games, allowing just 8 goals. Quick was even more impressive against the 2nd seeded St. Louis Blues, where he allowed just 6 goals in a four-game sweep. Then the Kings displaced the 3rd seeded Phoenix Coyotes in 5 games as they moved onto the finals for the 2nd time in franchise history, the other was 1993 with Wayne Gretzky. The Kings were only the second team in NHL history to defeat the top-3 seeds in their conference, the other was the 2003-04 Calgary Flames, coached ironically by Darryl Sutter. The Kings continued their dominance in the first three games of the finals against the New Jersey Devils, outscoring them 8-2 as they were up 3-0 in the series. But the Devils fought back hard to win games 4 and 5 to force a 6th game back in L.A. However, the Kings scored 3 power play goals in the 1st period en route to a dominating 6-1 win and won their first-ever Stanley Cup in their 45-year history.
They finished a whopping 16-4 in the playoffs, including 10-1 on the roadwhich includes an NHL 10 consecutive road playoff victories and a road playoff record. Quick won the Conn Smythe Trophy with a 16-4 record, an incredible .946 save % and a 1.41 goals against average. Dustin Brown and Enze Kopitar tied for the lead in scoring with 8 goals and 20 points and a +16. Justin Williams had a good playoff and defensemen Drew Doughty was simply amazing averaging over 26 minutes of ice time. Former Flyers Mike Richards and Jeff Carter both had great playoffs after they both had down regular seasons. Richards and Carter showed the Flyers how wrong they were for shipping them away after last season’s playoff loss and they were the scapegoats because they partied and drank too much. How does that feel now Philly? They beat the team that beat you in the playoffs. Add Simon Gagne and former coach Flyer coach and current assistant coach John Stevens, and its even more pain for Flyer fans who have been waiting for a Cup since 1975. I could not be happier just based on that merit.
How in the world did the Kings win? Beats the heck out of me. It shows you that now you can make the playoffs and you have a strong shot to win. New Jersey could have won and they would be the first 6th seed to win the Cup, but they were no ordinary 6th seed as they had 100 points and barely finished 4th in the super competitive Atlantic Division. There is a lot of questions up coming for the Devils including will Brodeur retire and will they be able to keep some free agents, such as Zach Parise? I do want to congratulate New Jersey on a fantastic season despite the disappointing ending.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
The Bills are Actually Signing and Keeping Players
What an off season it has been for the Bills!! It has been one of the best in recent years and the best I can remember in some time. Back in the early to mid '90s when the Bills had great seasons and offseasons, I was too young to understand and appreciate it. Now after a 12-year playoff drought, I've really grown to appreciate and enjoy this off season. It just got better with the extension given to Fred Jackson.
The first thing the Bills really did to kickoff this off season was the contract extension of wide receiver Stevie Johnson. Johnson was set to become a free agent unless the Bills used their franchise tag on him, but thankfully they got the job done. Johnson has been a big part of Chan Gailey's offense the last two years as he is the first player in Bills history to record back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Not even the great Andre Reed did that. Johnson has been a number one wide receiver and yes, he does crazy touchdown celebrations which have drawn fines and penalties and criticism. But he makes up for it on the field. By the way, Johnson is the lone wide receiver whom Darrelle Revis struggles with as Johnson has caught more passes for more yards against Revis than any other wide receiver. Had they let him go and figured he wasn't worth the money for his immature celebrations, then this off season would have probably just sucked. They would have had to probably draft a wide receiver in the 1st round to replace him and it would have been a joke. Johnson's signing set the tone for this fabulous off season so far. Of course one could argue it really all started when they gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension last October as they have their QB and receiver locked in.
The Bills went out and surprisingly were one of the most aggressive players in the free agent market. I heard they were talking a big game but I wasn't impressed until they landed a big player or two. They tried after wide receivers Vincent Jackson and Robert Meacham, but both signed elsewhere. Then they began going after the biggest free agent out there (not named Peyton Manning) in Mario Williams. Williams visited One Bills Drive first before any other team which was amazing. But again, if they fail to sign him, then it was a disappointment. Thankfully, the Bills managed to get Williams to sign before he even had a chance to visit elsewhere to a six-year, $100 million contract with $50 million guaranteed, most guaranteed money to a defensive player. Suddenly, the Bills became a contender as they were the talk of ESPN and all major networks for signing perhaps the biggest free agent out there. The Bills need Williams so bad because they need a pass rusher and they need as many great players as possible. In addition to Williams, the Bills also sign defensive end Mark Anderson, perhaps the second best defensive end free agent behind only Williams. The Bills went from one of the worst defensive lines to one of the best. Even though they couldn't get a big free agent wide receiver opposite Stevie, it was still a great off season.
Then came the draft, which the Bills seemed to pass with flying colors. They addressed their needs at corner back by taking South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore with the 10th pick and also took offensive tackle Cordy Glenn in the 2nd round, a player the Bills really seemed to like and were perhaps going to take him in the 1st round, but thankfully he fell right into their laps at 41. There were some who thought the Bills should have moved up to get USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil and give up their 2nd round pick, but I'm so glad they didn't. I don't value the tackle that much to move up and give up an early 2nd in the process, especially considering we got a potential shut down corner and hopefully a starting left tackle. I would only move up for a franchise QB. We will see how the other picks pan out. I wish they could still get a wide receiver, but there could be a guy available down the road and I am interested in seeing what TJ Graham could do. Like I've said before, the draft and off season would have been pointless had they not signed Williams as he was the key pickup.
Then there's the Fred Jackson contract extension Monday. I am amazed they were able to get Jackson an extension this early, I thought it would have lasted into training camp. But this team, that used to screw around with contracts, are prepared and willing to get their key players taken care and ready to go. You know the story about Jackson, undrafted out of tiny Coe College, played in both arena football (not the Arena Football League or even af2) and in NFL Europe. Jackson made the Bills in 2006 and had been a very good running back since. He became the first NFL player to have over 1,000 rushing and kickoff return yards in 2009. Last year, Jackson was among the NFL rushing leaders with 934 yards in the first 10 games before breaking his leg and ending his season. Jackson was such a huge part of the Bills offense during the 5-2 start. Even though he is 31 and generally running backs' careers end after 30, the Bills believe Jackson can still give them plenty in the next couple of years plus its a reward for all his hard work the last 6 years. There is also possible contract extensions for Jairus Byrd and Andy Levitre on the way.
The Bills in the past, maybe 3-5 years ago, were reluctant to give players contract extensions and sign free agents. When they'd sign a free agent or acquire someone in the off season via trade, it was usually a no name player or someone who was past his prime (IE Terrell Owens). The not resigning players and/or trading them away because they wouldn't resign them really bugged me. In order to win in this league, you need to have good players and you need to keep them. The Bills would be reluctant to not re-sign someone because they feel they could spend their money better, in other words, they were cheap. But they would pay a big price for being cheap. Anytime a player was a year away from their contract expiring, they would trade them away for a draft pick. Rather than re-sign a free agent, they'd let them walk. The solution: they would just draft their replacement. So instead of keeping good players and trying to fix holes and/or add depth, they would just keep creating more holes as if a rookie could replace the outgoing player. Here are some examples of players the Bills have let go: Pat Williams, Drew Bledsoe, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Peerless Price (the first time), Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, London Fletcher, Jabari Greer, Jason Peters to name a few. They are all pretty good players whether you loved all of them or not. Had they kept these players and signed and drafted others, the Bills wouldn't be on a 12-year playoff drought.
At least now giving Fitz, Stevie, and Freddy contract extensions along with the signing of Williams and Anderson and the last two drafts can hopefully give this fan base a playoff appearance. There should be no excuses for at least 9-7 or 10-6. Injuries can be a huge part. I don't want to sound like a jerk, but stay healthy. Trainers, do whatever you can to get these players to stay healthy and not get hurt. Go Bills!!!
The first thing the Bills really did to kickoff this off season was the contract extension of wide receiver Stevie Johnson. Johnson was set to become a free agent unless the Bills used their franchise tag on him, but thankfully they got the job done. Johnson has been a big part of Chan Gailey's offense the last two years as he is the first player in Bills history to record back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Not even the great Andre Reed did that. Johnson has been a number one wide receiver and yes, he does crazy touchdown celebrations which have drawn fines and penalties and criticism. But he makes up for it on the field. By the way, Johnson is the lone wide receiver whom Darrelle Revis struggles with as Johnson has caught more passes for more yards against Revis than any other wide receiver. Had they let him go and figured he wasn't worth the money for his immature celebrations, then this off season would have probably just sucked. They would have had to probably draft a wide receiver in the 1st round to replace him and it would have been a joke. Johnson's signing set the tone for this fabulous off season so far. Of course one could argue it really all started when they gave Ryan Fitzpatrick a contract extension last October as they have their QB and receiver locked in.
The Bills went out and surprisingly were one of the most aggressive players in the free agent market. I heard they were talking a big game but I wasn't impressed until they landed a big player or two. They tried after wide receivers Vincent Jackson and Robert Meacham, but both signed elsewhere. Then they began going after the biggest free agent out there (not named Peyton Manning) in Mario Williams. Williams visited One Bills Drive first before any other team which was amazing. But again, if they fail to sign him, then it was a disappointment. Thankfully, the Bills managed to get Williams to sign before he even had a chance to visit elsewhere to a six-year, $100 million contract with $50 million guaranteed, most guaranteed money to a defensive player. Suddenly, the Bills became a contender as they were the talk of ESPN and all major networks for signing perhaps the biggest free agent out there. The Bills need Williams so bad because they need a pass rusher and they need as many great players as possible. In addition to Williams, the Bills also sign defensive end Mark Anderson, perhaps the second best defensive end free agent behind only Williams. The Bills went from one of the worst defensive lines to one of the best. Even though they couldn't get a big free agent wide receiver opposite Stevie, it was still a great off season.
Then came the draft, which the Bills seemed to pass with flying colors. They addressed their needs at corner back by taking South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore with the 10th pick and also took offensive tackle Cordy Glenn in the 2nd round, a player the Bills really seemed to like and were perhaps going to take him in the 1st round, but thankfully he fell right into their laps at 41. There were some who thought the Bills should have moved up to get USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil and give up their 2nd round pick, but I'm so glad they didn't. I don't value the tackle that much to move up and give up an early 2nd in the process, especially considering we got a potential shut down corner and hopefully a starting left tackle. I would only move up for a franchise QB. We will see how the other picks pan out. I wish they could still get a wide receiver, but there could be a guy available down the road and I am interested in seeing what TJ Graham could do. Like I've said before, the draft and off season would have been pointless had they not signed Williams as he was the key pickup.
Then there's the Fred Jackson contract extension Monday. I am amazed they were able to get Jackson an extension this early, I thought it would have lasted into training camp. But this team, that used to screw around with contracts, are prepared and willing to get their key players taken care and ready to go. You know the story about Jackson, undrafted out of tiny Coe College, played in both arena football (not the Arena Football League or even af2) and in NFL Europe. Jackson made the Bills in 2006 and had been a very good running back since. He became the first NFL player to have over 1,000 rushing and kickoff return yards in 2009. Last year, Jackson was among the NFL rushing leaders with 934 yards in the first 10 games before breaking his leg and ending his season. Jackson was such a huge part of the Bills offense during the 5-2 start. Even though he is 31 and generally running backs' careers end after 30, the Bills believe Jackson can still give them plenty in the next couple of years plus its a reward for all his hard work the last 6 years. There is also possible contract extensions for Jairus Byrd and Andy Levitre on the way.
The Bills in the past, maybe 3-5 years ago, were reluctant to give players contract extensions and sign free agents. When they'd sign a free agent or acquire someone in the off season via trade, it was usually a no name player or someone who was past his prime (IE Terrell Owens). The not resigning players and/or trading them away because they wouldn't resign them really bugged me. In order to win in this league, you need to have good players and you need to keep them. The Bills would be reluctant to not re-sign someone because they feel they could spend their money better, in other words, they were cheap. But they would pay a big price for being cheap. Anytime a player was a year away from their contract expiring, they would trade them away for a draft pick. Rather than re-sign a free agent, they'd let them walk. The solution: they would just draft their replacement. So instead of keeping good players and trying to fix holes and/or add depth, they would just keep creating more holes as if a rookie could replace the outgoing player. Here are some examples of players the Bills have let go: Pat Williams, Drew Bledsoe, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Peerless Price (the first time), Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, London Fletcher, Jabari Greer, Jason Peters to name a few. They are all pretty good players whether you loved all of them or not. Had they kept these players and signed and drafted others, the Bills wouldn't be on a 12-year playoff drought.
At least now giving Fitz, Stevie, and Freddy contract extensions along with the signing of Williams and Anderson and the last two drafts can hopefully give this fan base a playoff appearance. There should be no excuses for at least 9-7 or 10-6. Injuries can be a huge part. I don't want to sound like a jerk, but stay healthy. Trainers, do whatever you can to get these players to stay healthy and not get hurt. Go Bills!!!
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Why I Would Want Vince Young to Come to Buffalo
So the Buffalo Bills recently worked out former Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Vince Young to be a backup quarterback for them. Make no mistake, he will be a backup as Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starter so please don't be like "Young can't start and it makes Fitz worse." According to Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey, Fitz is their guy. It's his team. But they do need a competent backup in case anything happens to Fitz, like last year when he suffered a broken rib and played poorly as the Bills lost 8 of their last 9 games after a wonderful 5-2 start. If they knew about the injury and he was playing poorly, why did they let Fitzpatrick continue to play and why did they not play Tyler Thigpen, who they gave a 3-year and played under Gailey in KC? It couldn't have worse than an injured Fitzpatrick, right? Maybe they didn't think highly of him, which is bad. That's why I would want Vince Young here, because I believe he can win a game or two if anything short term happened to Fitz and it wouldn't just destroy our team. Even if Young played terrible and lost, what's the difference? We would lose with a lesser backup QB or an injured Fitz playing through the pain. And if Young played great and won, well we all benefit from wins.
I loved watching Young play at the University of Texas, where he started for three years and made many highlight plays with both his arm and his legs. Young was a winner and led Texas to a National Championship in 2005 in a win over #1 USC. He also led the Longhorns to a Rose Bowl win over Michigan in 2004 and was the Rose Bowl MVP both times. In the win over USC, Young put on a show for the ages by recording a Rose Bowl record 467 yards of total offense (267 passing and 200 rushing) and three rushing touchdowns in the 41-38 win over a USC Trojans team that hadn't lost in over two years. Young scored the winning touchdown on 4th down with just 19 seconds to go. Young finished the season with over 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing with 26 touchdown passes to just 10 interceptions along with 12 rushing touchdowns and completed over 65% of his passes. He also led the nation in passing effiency with a 163.9 QB Rating. Young finished his college career at Texas with a 30-2 record and completed 61.8% of his passes. Also as a junior, Young improved from being just a running quarterback to a consistent and precise pocket passer who could run. He left college after his junior year to declare for the 2006 NFL Draft as he was considered to be a very high pick.
It appeared that his hometown Houston Texans would select Young 1st overall in the draft. There were still some concerns about his throwing motion, but some thought he could be a better pocket passer and more accurate than Michael Vick, who is more of a running quarterback and has made numerous plays and won games in the league. Young's arm and his running ability was intriguing to many scouts. As a Bills fan, I wanted the Bills to move up somehow to acquire him, that or sign Drew Brees, who eventually signed with the New Orleans Saints. I thought Young could be what Cam Newton is now, a big powerful thrower who could run. But Young has shown he doesn't quite have the arm like Newton does or the throwing ability like Newton does in the NFL. Houston passed on Young to take defensive end Mario Williams with the first overall pick, a pick that many, including myself, criticized the Texans for passing on Young for Williams. Of course the Williams pick turned out to be great.
The Tennessee Titans took Young 3rd overall in the draft. After a disappointing 0-3 start, the Titans put Young in to be the starter. After two more losses dropped the Titans to 0-5, Young led the Titans to an 8-3 record over the final 11 games, including six wins in a row, as the Titans barely missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record. The Titans trailed the New York Giants 21-0 in the 4th quarter before Young led the Titans to 28 unanswered points to defeat them 28-21. The next week against Indianapolis, Young brought the Titans back from a 14-0 deficit to win 20-17 as Young became the first rookie QB in NFL history to lead his team back twice from 14+ point deficits. Then in the game here in Buffalo on Christmas Eve, the Titans trailed by nine points and scored 10 in the 4th quarter to win 30-29. I was so impressed with Young and his ability to make plays and win games even though he might have been putting up pedestrian numbers, like his lowly 66.7 QB Rating, but the team was better and they were winning. Young was named Offensive Player of the Year.
Young struggled a bit in 2007 as his passing numbers weren't very good as he threw for over 2,500 yards, nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions and a 71.1 rating. Unlike his rookie year where he had four 4th quarter comebacks, Young did not have any 4th quarter comebacks. Young was in the bottom 1/4 of the major passing statistics, but despite struggling passing, Young led the Titans to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth. Critics called Young a manage the game quarterback where they felt their defense and running game carried the Titans. That was somewhat true, but Young still made plays when it mattered the most to win games. As a Bills fan, I wouldn't care if my QB completed 0 passes and recorded a 0 QB Rating as long as we won. We've had terrible QBs who played awful and didn't win. I'd take a QB who struggled passing as long as we won (boy that sounds an awful lot like Tim Tebow. There was immaturity issues coming out on Young. Young was injured in the opener in 2008 and was replaced by Kerry Collins. After the game, Young left without telling anyone and people were worried as he was depressed. There were some reports Jeff Fisher and the Titans were worried that Young might take his own life, which was reported false. But Young was very upset and hurt both inside and out, according to his mother anyways. Fisher named Collins starter the rest of the season as the Titans would go 13-3. Young was the backup.
Young came back in 2009 as Collins was still the starter. However after an 0-6 start, there was pressure by owner Bud Adams to Fisher to play Young as Adams was paying him a lot of money and didn't want him on the bench despite Fisher wanting to play Collins. Young was rejuvenated as he led the Titans to a 5-game winning streak and won 8 out of 10 starts as the Titans finished 8-8 after an 0-6 start. Young completed 58.7% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and recorded an 82.8 rating. Again, pedestrian numbers, but the record speaks for itself. He also recorded three 4th quarter comebacks and three game winning drives. Young reclaimed his starting job and led the Titans to a 5-5 record in the first 10 games and threw for 10 touchdowns, just three interceptions, and a career-best 98.6 rating. But Young injured his thumb and was taken out of the game. Young threw his shoulder pads into the stands after the game was over and had an altercation with Fisher in the locker room. Young was benched for the rest of the season and did not appear in another game for the Titans. After the season, Bud Adams, a supported or Young, decided he would release Young from the Titans as well as fire Fisher as head coach. Young was 30-17 as the starter in Tennessee and they were 15-18 without him.
Young was signed to be the backup to Michael Vick in Philadelphia for 2011, a move I thought was very good as they needed a backup to Vick, who is injury-prone. Young declared the Eagles as the "Dream Team" and was criticized for it and fairly I might add. Young started 3 games for an injured Vick and went 1-2 with 4 touchdowns and 9 interceptions and played awful. After the season, the Eagles decided not to re-sign him and instead went with Trent Edwards to be backup. That's not a good sign when a team wants Trent Edwards over you. I really don't know what's up with that. Criticize Young all you want, have you seen Edwards play? Really? You want Edwards more? Maybe Young fell out of favor with coaches and I can see that.
Young has completed 57.9% of his passes for 46 touchdowns, 51 interceptions, fumbled 40 times, lost 12, and posted a 74.4 rating for his career. Very bad numbers. But his record is tremendous, 31-19. How can a QB win 31 out of 50 starts with those numbers? He must make plays to win games or else there is no explanation. I don't think he should be the starter here, but I love him as a backup. Fitz is the starter and his numbers are a slightly more TD-to-INT ratio and his rating and completion percentage are very similar to Young. But the record is much more in favor of Young. Maybe it is because Fitz was on more lousy teams than Young was. Maybe Young has more of an "It" quality. I like Young a lot, but Fitz is suited much more for this offense. Young can make some plays too in this offense. I still like Young a lot because of his record. Don't get me wrong, he's not Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Brees. He's not even Vick. But when you need a guy to win a game or two, he's the guy. The team still believes in Fitz and he's the starter hands down.
I loved watching Young play at the University of Texas, where he started for three years and made many highlight plays with both his arm and his legs. Young was a winner and led Texas to a National Championship in 2005 in a win over #1 USC. He also led the Longhorns to a Rose Bowl win over Michigan in 2004 and was the Rose Bowl MVP both times. In the win over USC, Young put on a show for the ages by recording a Rose Bowl record 467 yards of total offense (267 passing and 200 rushing) and three rushing touchdowns in the 41-38 win over a USC Trojans team that hadn't lost in over two years. Young scored the winning touchdown on 4th down with just 19 seconds to go. Young finished the season with over 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing with 26 touchdown passes to just 10 interceptions along with 12 rushing touchdowns and completed over 65% of his passes. He also led the nation in passing effiency with a 163.9 QB Rating. Young finished his college career at Texas with a 30-2 record and completed 61.8% of his passes. Also as a junior, Young improved from being just a running quarterback to a consistent and precise pocket passer who could run. He left college after his junior year to declare for the 2006 NFL Draft as he was considered to be a very high pick.
It appeared that his hometown Houston Texans would select Young 1st overall in the draft. There were still some concerns about his throwing motion, but some thought he could be a better pocket passer and more accurate than Michael Vick, who is more of a running quarterback and has made numerous plays and won games in the league. Young's arm and his running ability was intriguing to many scouts. As a Bills fan, I wanted the Bills to move up somehow to acquire him, that or sign Drew Brees, who eventually signed with the New Orleans Saints. I thought Young could be what Cam Newton is now, a big powerful thrower who could run. But Young has shown he doesn't quite have the arm like Newton does or the throwing ability like Newton does in the NFL. Houston passed on Young to take defensive end Mario Williams with the first overall pick, a pick that many, including myself, criticized the Texans for passing on Young for Williams. Of course the Williams pick turned out to be great.
The Tennessee Titans took Young 3rd overall in the draft. After a disappointing 0-3 start, the Titans put Young in to be the starter. After two more losses dropped the Titans to 0-5, Young led the Titans to an 8-3 record over the final 11 games, including six wins in a row, as the Titans barely missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record. The Titans trailed the New York Giants 21-0 in the 4th quarter before Young led the Titans to 28 unanswered points to defeat them 28-21. The next week against Indianapolis, Young brought the Titans back from a 14-0 deficit to win 20-17 as Young became the first rookie QB in NFL history to lead his team back twice from 14+ point deficits. Then in the game here in Buffalo on Christmas Eve, the Titans trailed by nine points and scored 10 in the 4th quarter to win 30-29. I was so impressed with Young and his ability to make plays and win games even though he might have been putting up pedestrian numbers, like his lowly 66.7 QB Rating, but the team was better and they were winning. Young was named Offensive Player of the Year.
Young struggled a bit in 2007 as his passing numbers weren't very good as he threw for over 2,500 yards, nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions and a 71.1 rating. Unlike his rookie year where he had four 4th quarter comebacks, Young did not have any 4th quarter comebacks. Young was in the bottom 1/4 of the major passing statistics, but despite struggling passing, Young led the Titans to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth. Critics called Young a manage the game quarterback where they felt their defense and running game carried the Titans. That was somewhat true, but Young still made plays when it mattered the most to win games. As a Bills fan, I wouldn't care if my QB completed 0 passes and recorded a 0 QB Rating as long as we won. We've had terrible QBs who played awful and didn't win. I'd take a QB who struggled passing as long as we won (boy that sounds an awful lot like Tim Tebow. There was immaturity issues coming out on Young. Young was injured in the opener in 2008 and was replaced by Kerry Collins. After the game, Young left without telling anyone and people were worried as he was depressed. There were some reports Jeff Fisher and the Titans were worried that Young might take his own life, which was reported false. But Young was very upset and hurt both inside and out, according to his mother anyways. Fisher named Collins starter the rest of the season as the Titans would go 13-3. Young was the backup.
Young came back in 2009 as Collins was still the starter. However after an 0-6 start, there was pressure by owner Bud Adams to Fisher to play Young as Adams was paying him a lot of money and didn't want him on the bench despite Fisher wanting to play Collins. Young was rejuvenated as he led the Titans to a 5-game winning streak and won 8 out of 10 starts as the Titans finished 8-8 after an 0-6 start. Young completed 58.7% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and recorded an 82.8 rating. Again, pedestrian numbers, but the record speaks for itself. He also recorded three 4th quarter comebacks and three game winning drives. Young reclaimed his starting job and led the Titans to a 5-5 record in the first 10 games and threw for 10 touchdowns, just three interceptions, and a career-best 98.6 rating. But Young injured his thumb and was taken out of the game. Young threw his shoulder pads into the stands after the game was over and had an altercation with Fisher in the locker room. Young was benched for the rest of the season and did not appear in another game for the Titans. After the season, Bud Adams, a supported or Young, decided he would release Young from the Titans as well as fire Fisher as head coach. Young was 30-17 as the starter in Tennessee and they were 15-18 without him.
Young was signed to be the backup to Michael Vick in Philadelphia for 2011, a move I thought was very good as they needed a backup to Vick, who is injury-prone. Young declared the Eagles as the "Dream Team" and was criticized for it and fairly I might add. Young started 3 games for an injured Vick and went 1-2 with 4 touchdowns and 9 interceptions and played awful. After the season, the Eagles decided not to re-sign him and instead went with Trent Edwards to be backup. That's not a good sign when a team wants Trent Edwards over you. I really don't know what's up with that. Criticize Young all you want, have you seen Edwards play? Really? You want Edwards more? Maybe Young fell out of favor with coaches and I can see that.
Young has completed 57.9% of his passes for 46 touchdowns, 51 interceptions, fumbled 40 times, lost 12, and posted a 74.4 rating for his career. Very bad numbers. But his record is tremendous, 31-19. How can a QB win 31 out of 50 starts with those numbers? He must make plays to win games or else there is no explanation. I don't think he should be the starter here, but I love him as a backup. Fitz is the starter and his numbers are a slightly more TD-to-INT ratio and his rating and completion percentage are very similar to Young. But the record is much more in favor of Young. Maybe it is because Fitz was on more lousy teams than Young was. Maybe Young has more of an "It" quality. I like Young a lot, but Fitz is suited much more for this offense. Young can make some plays too in this offense. I still like Young a lot because of his record. Don't get me wrong, he's not Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Brees. He's not even Vick. But when you need a guy to win a game or two, he's the guy. The team still believes in Fitz and he's the starter hands down.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Looking at the Bills Draft
It's hard to predict the success or failure of a team's draft for at least a couple of years so I'm not going out on a limb and saying this year's Buffalo Bills draft was either a success or a failure. It doesn't make sense to. But I see a lot of positives though in this year's draft. I will look at each pick individually and give my assessment. Again, if I don't sound too negative and seem a little too positive, it's because it's the thing to do because it doesn't make sense to be too bitter or down on a pick unless they show me. Some people have been too critical of each pick without seeing them play. I do like their first couple of picks a lot and everything else beyond that is hit or miss. I want them to hit on their first 2-3 picks. I'm also not down that they did not take a QB as it is pointless to me to take a QB after round 1 for the sake of taking one (Check out my blog on this topic:http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html). Of course it is easy to 2nd guess the Bills' drafts as they have been pretty lousy the last decade. But I feel Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley seem to have their heads in the game.
1st round pick (10th overall) - Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Bills went cornerback with the 10th pick in the draft and took South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. He is considered to be the 2nd best corner in this year's draft, behind only LSU's Morris Claiborne, and it's not even that wide of a margin. Gilmore can be a shut down corner, capable of matching up with the best receivers in the game. He has matched up well against some of the top receivers in the SEC in A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Riley Cooper, and even teammate Alshon Jeffery in practice. He has great speed and size. Gilmore is also a very phyiscal corner, who is a great tackler and can help out against the run. Gilmore will be helped by the additions of pass rushers in Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. This is a huge need for the Bills as Leodis McKelvin is not in the future cards for the Bills at corner and Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence are both 31. McGee has been injured the past few seasons and Florence can't keep up with the best receivers. Also, Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers showed flashes of brilliance as rookies last year, but are both raw. Buddy Nix says "you can never have enough corners" and "corner back is the toughest position to play outside of quarterback." Plus Gilmore seems to be a very high character guy who isn't cocky and doesn't go out and party his "you know what off." He is pretty serious about being a great football player.
2nd round pick (41st overall) - Cordy Glenn - OT/G - Georgia
This is what I call a "value pick" as the Bills liked Cordy Glenn a lot and were even considering taking him with the 10th overall pick. But he thankfully fell to them at 41 in the 2nd round. Glenn had been a guard in his first 3 seasons at Georgia before switching over to left tackle for his senior year because of injuries and played quite well in the very tough SEC. But some scouts believe he is only going to be a guard in the NFL while some think he will be a right tackle, but not a left tackle. The Bills will try him perhaps at left tackle, even though Chris Hairston is there right now, maybe he'll go to right tackle. Good thing he is a 2nd round pick because if he is only a right tackle or guard instead of a left tackle, then the price won't sting as much as if he were taken in the 1st round. But hopefully, he can be a left tackle in this league for 10+ years.
3rd round pick (69th overall) - T.J. Graham - WR - N.C. State
This is a pick that kind of stunned many Bills fans and this pick drew a lot of criticism from Bills fans. They were probably like "who?" Some people believe he was too high and some even think he should have been a 7th round pick. The Bills traded a 7th round pick to move up two spots to take Graham. Graham is a little undersized at 6'0" 180 lbs and could be pushed around by corner backs. But make no mistake, he is a burner with a 4.29-4.30 40. Put him opposite Stevie, who runs quick slants, and 6'4" David Nelson, who is a slot receiver, and let Graham run down the field to draw defenses to him. His speed will draw plenty of attention from the defense and will open up this offense. This team needs a deep threat bad. Some think he is Roscoe Parrish Part II and I say no. They are similar in weight but in height, Graham is a little taller and is a better receiver. You saw what Parrish did under Chan Gailey's offense the last two years when he was healthy.
4th round pick (105th overall) - Nigel Bradham - LB - Florida State
Continuing with the picks from the South, the Bills get linebacker depth in Nigel Bradham as they fill their four most critical positions of need. Bradham has the size and physical tools to be a linebacker and is a very physical tackler. He does need to improve his football IQ and instincts, but if he does, he can be a very good linebacker in the league. Bradham will be an outside linebacker and could be a starter.
4th round pick (124th overall) - Ron Brooks - CB - LSU
The Bills go corner again and take LSU's Ron Brooks, another corner from the SEC. Plus he went to LSU, which has turned out pretty good corners in recent years. Brooks is a little small at 5'10", but he is very quick and will be an asset in the punt and kickoff return game as well as add corner depth on defense. Brooks did pretty well despite limited playing time as he has been behind Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne, and even the "Honey Badger" Tyronn Mathieu, and all have been great at LSU. He could push Leodis McKelvin for playing time.
5th round pick (144th overall) - Zebrie Sanders - OT - Florida State
Again the Bills stick with players from the South and the SEC and ACC. They add more offensive tackle and O-line depth with Zebrie Sanders. Sanders needs to bulk up and add some strength and he could be a good depth guy.
5th round pick (147th overall) - Tank Carder - ILB - TCU
The Bills are still in the South, this time in Texas. Tank Carder is the person Bills fans will come to love. I think those who desperately wanted the Bills to take Luke Kuechly in the 1st round, will not be disappointed in Carder. Carder is an interesting cat as he was a BMX champion and was involved in a very serious car accident where he was thrown from the car and was seriously injured. Carder defied the odds to be a starting linebacker. Carder was a great linebacker at TCU, where he was the 2011 Rose Bowl Defensive Player of the Game. Carder is an ideal 4-3 linebacker as he is good in pass coverage, covering receivers and tight ends. I think he can be a starter down the road.
6th round (178th overall) - Mark Asper - OG - Oregon
The Bills add more offensive line help and finally get out of the South and travel out West to select Oregon's Mark Asper. Asper is athletic, but is 27 about to be 28 as he had been away for a couple of years on a religious mission.
7th round (251st overall) - John Potter - K - Western Michigan
The Bills are looking to the future on a kicker as Rian Lindell is 35 years old and isn't getting any younger. Potter has a big leg and is very accurate. The Bills are considering using him on kickoffs as he can boot the ball out of the end zone, that is assuming the Bills want to use a roster spot for him.
Undrafted Free Agent - Aaron Corp - QB - Richmond
The Bills signed an undrafted free agent QB in Aaron Corp. Corp was originally recruited to play at USC by Pete Carroll. Corp was the starting QB going into the 2009 season after Mark Sanchez left to go to the NFL. But an injury cost him the starting job as Matt Barkley took over and the rest is history. Corp transferred to 1-AA Richmond, where he started for two years. Corp was not overly productive for Richmond and should have dominated the Division 1-AA competition. Of course if he did, he'd been drafted. This is just a project as he won't compete for the starting job.
The Bills' draft was impressive as they seem to finally have things going well like last year when they drafted Marcel Dareus, Aaron Williams, and Kelvin Shepherd. This draft along with the additions in the offseason make the Bills a legitimate playoff contender. Of course, the Bills draft is exciting mainly because of the signing of Mario Williams. Had he not signed here, I really don't think the Bills would compete for the playoffs and would not be exciting.
1st round pick (10th overall) - Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Bills went cornerback with the 10th pick in the draft and took South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. He is considered to be the 2nd best corner in this year's draft, behind only LSU's Morris Claiborne, and it's not even that wide of a margin. Gilmore can be a shut down corner, capable of matching up with the best receivers in the game. He has matched up well against some of the top receivers in the SEC in A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Riley Cooper, and even teammate Alshon Jeffery in practice. He has great speed and size. Gilmore is also a very phyiscal corner, who is a great tackler and can help out against the run. Gilmore will be helped by the additions of pass rushers in Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. This is a huge need for the Bills as Leodis McKelvin is not in the future cards for the Bills at corner and Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence are both 31. McGee has been injured the past few seasons and Florence can't keep up with the best receivers. Also, Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers showed flashes of brilliance as rookies last year, but are both raw. Buddy Nix says "you can never have enough corners" and "corner back is the toughest position to play outside of quarterback." Plus Gilmore seems to be a very high character guy who isn't cocky and doesn't go out and party his "you know what off." He is pretty serious about being a great football player.
2nd round pick (41st overall) - Cordy Glenn - OT/G - Georgia
This is what I call a "value pick" as the Bills liked Cordy Glenn a lot and were even considering taking him with the 10th overall pick. But he thankfully fell to them at 41 in the 2nd round. Glenn had been a guard in his first 3 seasons at Georgia before switching over to left tackle for his senior year because of injuries and played quite well in the very tough SEC. But some scouts believe he is only going to be a guard in the NFL while some think he will be a right tackle, but not a left tackle. The Bills will try him perhaps at left tackle, even though Chris Hairston is there right now, maybe he'll go to right tackle. Good thing he is a 2nd round pick because if he is only a right tackle or guard instead of a left tackle, then the price won't sting as much as if he were taken in the 1st round. But hopefully, he can be a left tackle in this league for 10+ years.
3rd round pick (69th overall) - T.J. Graham - WR - N.C. State
This is a pick that kind of stunned many Bills fans and this pick drew a lot of criticism from Bills fans. They were probably like "who?" Some people believe he was too high and some even think he should have been a 7th round pick. The Bills traded a 7th round pick to move up two spots to take Graham. Graham is a little undersized at 6'0" 180 lbs and could be pushed around by corner backs. But make no mistake, he is a burner with a 4.29-4.30 40. Put him opposite Stevie, who runs quick slants, and 6'4" David Nelson, who is a slot receiver, and let Graham run down the field to draw defenses to him. His speed will draw plenty of attention from the defense and will open up this offense. This team needs a deep threat bad. Some think he is Roscoe Parrish Part II and I say no. They are similar in weight but in height, Graham is a little taller and is a better receiver. You saw what Parrish did under Chan Gailey's offense the last two years when he was healthy.
4th round pick (105th overall) - Nigel Bradham - LB - Florida State
Continuing with the picks from the South, the Bills get linebacker depth in Nigel Bradham as they fill their four most critical positions of need. Bradham has the size and physical tools to be a linebacker and is a very physical tackler. He does need to improve his football IQ and instincts, but if he does, he can be a very good linebacker in the league. Bradham will be an outside linebacker and could be a starter.
4th round pick (124th overall) - Ron Brooks - CB - LSU
The Bills go corner again and take LSU's Ron Brooks, another corner from the SEC. Plus he went to LSU, which has turned out pretty good corners in recent years. Brooks is a little small at 5'10", but he is very quick and will be an asset in the punt and kickoff return game as well as add corner depth on defense. Brooks did pretty well despite limited playing time as he has been behind Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne, and even the "Honey Badger" Tyronn Mathieu, and all have been great at LSU. He could push Leodis McKelvin for playing time.
5th round pick (144th overall) - Zebrie Sanders - OT - Florida State
Again the Bills stick with players from the South and the SEC and ACC. They add more offensive tackle and O-line depth with Zebrie Sanders. Sanders needs to bulk up and add some strength and he could be a good depth guy.
5th round pick (147th overall) - Tank Carder - ILB - TCU
The Bills are still in the South, this time in Texas. Tank Carder is the person Bills fans will come to love. I think those who desperately wanted the Bills to take Luke Kuechly in the 1st round, will not be disappointed in Carder. Carder is an interesting cat as he was a BMX champion and was involved in a very serious car accident where he was thrown from the car and was seriously injured. Carder defied the odds to be a starting linebacker. Carder was a great linebacker at TCU, where he was the 2011 Rose Bowl Defensive Player of the Game. Carder is an ideal 4-3 linebacker as he is good in pass coverage, covering receivers and tight ends. I think he can be a starter down the road.
6th round (178th overall) - Mark Asper - OG - Oregon
The Bills add more offensive line help and finally get out of the South and travel out West to select Oregon's Mark Asper. Asper is athletic, but is 27 about to be 28 as he had been away for a couple of years on a religious mission.
7th round (251st overall) - John Potter - K - Western Michigan
The Bills are looking to the future on a kicker as Rian Lindell is 35 years old and isn't getting any younger. Potter has a big leg and is very accurate. The Bills are considering using him on kickoffs as he can boot the ball out of the end zone, that is assuming the Bills want to use a roster spot for him.
Undrafted Free Agent - Aaron Corp - QB - Richmond
The Bills signed an undrafted free agent QB in Aaron Corp. Corp was originally recruited to play at USC by Pete Carroll. Corp was the starting QB going into the 2009 season after Mark Sanchez left to go to the NFL. But an injury cost him the starting job as Matt Barkley took over and the rest is history. Corp transferred to 1-AA Richmond, where he started for two years. Corp was not overly productive for Richmond and should have dominated the Division 1-AA competition. Of course if he did, he'd been drafted. This is just a project as he won't compete for the starting job.
The Bills' draft was impressive as they seem to finally have things going well like last year when they drafted Marcel Dareus, Aaron Williams, and Kelvin Shepherd. This draft along with the additions in the offseason make the Bills a legitimate playoff contender. Of course, the Bills draft is exciting mainly because of the signing of Mario Williams. Had he not signed here, I really don't think the Bills would compete for the playoffs and would not be exciting.
Monday, April 30, 2012
2012 NFL Draft Aftermath
I don't believe in grading the draft because you need at least three years to do so. Even things like winners and losers of the draft is pointless because again, you need 3 years to determine. But I'd to look at several teams who I believe did well and made good picks. I'll even look at a couple of head scratchers as well.
I'll start with the Indianapolis Colts, who drafted Andrew Luck 1st overall, no shock there. They went heavy on offense in the draft, giving Luck plenty of weapons at his disposal as 8 of their 10 picks were on offense. They used the 2nd and 3rd round picks on tight ends: Coby Fleener, Luck's guy at Stanford, and Clemson's Dwayne Allen, who are the top tight ends in this draft as both Dallas Clark and Jacob Tammi, who followed Peyton Manning to Denver, are no longer on the team. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is a burner, but is small. You have a franchise QB hopefully for 10-15 years so you better surround him with talent right away as he tries to learn the game. The Washington Redskins gave up a lot to move up to #2 to take Robert Griffin III and it could very well be worth the gamble. Or so we think as the Redskins use a 4th round pick on Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins, who some feel can be a starter. Why would they do that? I know QB is the most important position in football and if something happens to Griffin, it's nice to have a starter. I know they have Cousins rated pretty high or else they wouldn't take him. But how can you take a guy who might compete for a starting job somewhere and have him be a backup to a guy who should be the starter? What about in training camp and preseason if Cousins outplays Griffin? The fans will be calling for Cousins. It reminds me of the 1994 Draft when Washington took Heath Shuler 3rd overall and Gus Frerotte in the 7th round and Frerotte eventually beat out Shuler as Shuler was a bust. Of course RG3 I don't think will be Shuler. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to me especially considering Cousins is a leader and wants to be a starter. You can't have two leaders at the QB position. But he is a 4th round pick for a reason, maybe he was over hyped and he'll either prove the critics right or wrong. This could eventually lead to a trade down the road, sort of like Atlanta a few years ago when the Falcons had both Mike Vick and Matt Schaub and traded Schaub for draft picks after he played well in a few games replacing an injured Vick. Maybe they trade Cousins, maybe they trade RG3? Trust me if RG3 is the guy, he will overcome this. If not, then the Redskins drafted the wrong guy.
Cleveland moved up one spot to take running back Trent Richardson, who they really liked and prevented Tampa Bay from moving up to grab him. Richardson can be an elite back and Cleveland needs all the help on offense they can get. But it doesn't excuse them from not being able to trade up for RG3. Then they take 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden out of Oklahoma State 22nd overall. Weeden has talent despite his age, but he operates from the spread offense, which as we seen has not translated into much success in the NFL, IE Blaine Gabbert. They needed a wide receiver more than they needed OT Mitchell Swartz in the 2nd round, but that's what they believe they needed so they took him. Minnesota got 3 late round picks from the Browns to move down one spot to 4th to take USC OT Matt Kalil, who they were going to take anyway and got more picks because of it. Maybe the whole "we aren't taking Kalil 3rd overall" was just a smokescreen for some team to trade up. The Vikings need a left tackle to protect Christian Ponder. They addressed secondary help in safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Josh Robinson.
Tampa Bay missed out on a chance to grab Trent Richardson so they traded down with Jacksonville for their 4th round pick even though I thought they were going to get cornerback Morris Claiborne, who they needed. Well they thought they could get him at 7, but Dallas moves up in what was perhaps the move of the draft to take Claiborne as they need a corner very bad. I absolutely loved what Dallas did right there, they made a statement saying "our secondary is not good enough and need to improve." They play in a division with Eli Manning and Victor Cruz, Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson, and RG3 and Pierre Garcon. I believe the Cowboys are a corner away from making the playoffs as they blew five double digit leads last year. Tampa Bay selects safety Mark Barron, who they claim they were going to take anyways. If that's true then OK, decent move. He is a top-10 player. But if they really thought they'd wanted and would get Claiborne at 7, then shame on them. I did like the Bucs trading up in the late first round to get the running back that Greg Schiano wants in Boise State's Doug Martin. Outside linebacker Lavonte David seems to be a really good fit. Jacksonville took Justin Blackmon as they need to give Blaine Gabbert help in the passing game. They also added value in DE Andre Branch. But they made perhaps the worst move in the draft by drafting a punter, yes a punter, in the 3rd round in Bryan Anger. A punter is a position of not great need as the Raiders have had the best punter in the league with Shane Lechler, and look how they do. There's no need to take a punter anywhere in the top-4-5 rounds. They don't win you games, especially in a passing league. Jacksonville is a terrible team and should be going for it more on 4th down and punting less. Maybe they did this to sell tickets LOL.
St. Louis had a great draft that includes the trade in March from the Redskins for three 1st round picks plus trading down with Dallas for the 14th pick and more picks. They took defensive tackle Michael Brockers out of LSU, a position they need. They took WR Brian Quick in the 2nd round to give Sam Bradford a much needed target and very talented but troubled corner back Janoris Jenkins. The Rams believe Jeff Fisher could work with Jenkins in order to control him. If it works out, then it's a home run. Of course they thought that back in '05 when Tennessee took Adam "Pacman" Jones and that turned out to blow up in their face, but of course the Titans took him 5th overall. Even though top-10 picks aren't used on inside linebackers, the Carolina Panthers believe that Boston College's tackling machine Luke Kuechly is worth a top-10 spot. The 2nd wide receiver in the draft, Michael Floyd, was drafted 13th overall with the Arizona Cardinals and will team up with Larry Fitzgerald to give them a potent 1-2 receiving combination. Of course, the Cards don't have anyone to throw the football to them.
Miami finally got a quarterback after missing out on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and Alex Smith. They took Ryan Tannehill 8th overall, which is a bit of a reach but the team believes he's a franchise guy and sometimes you have to reach early. Tannehill has the talent and ability, but is still pretty raw as he was a wide receiver at Texas A&M until midway through his junior year when he finally became the starting QB. Tannehill will probably have to sit a year or so and can sit behind Matt Moore, who was more than serviceable last year but not a franchise QB. That could be a problem though as you don't use an 8th overall pick for a guy to sit on the bench and get comfortable. That's my take. But the Dolphins shored up their offensive line by taking Stanford OT Jonathan Martin in the 2nd round. Another big QB prospect, and I mean big as in 6'8 Brock Osweiler went in the 2nd round with the Denver Broncos, who can afford to sit him a few years and learn behind Peyton Manning.
Teams like the Giants, Steelers, and Ravens had good drafts as usual. The Giants took Boise State running back David Wilson in the 1st round and wide receiver LSU Rueben Randle with the final pick of the 2nd round when he should have gone late 1st, early 2nd. The Steelers took the best guard in the draft in David DeCastro, who could be the best guard since Steve Hutchinson, in the 1st round and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams in the 2nd, who is very talented but failed marijuana tests as he tumbled from the 1st to 2nd round. The Steelers believe they can work on Adams and he can be a productive left tackle. The Ravens traded out of the 1st round and took Alabama's outside linebacker/defensive end Courtney Upshaw along with a couple of guards. The two teams with the two worst defenses statistically in the league in the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers upgraded their defenses. The Patriots actually traded up in the 1st round to take Syracuse DE Chandler Jones and took Alabama inside linebacker Dont'a Hightower with the other 1st round pick. The Packers took OLB Nick Perry, DT Jerel Worthy, corner back Casey Hayward.
Now onto the teams who I liked are the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles traded up for DT Fletcher Cox, the best DT prospect in the draft, ILB Mychal Kendricks, DE Vinny Curry, who has been considered a first round pick, QB Nick Foles for the future. The Bengals continue to do things right especially after last year's draft which featured AJ Green and Andy Dalton and the trading of Carson Palmer to Oakland for a 1st and 2nd round pick. The Bengals drafted Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick in the 1st round and traded down their 2nd 1st round pick to take guard Kevin Zeitler. In Kirkpatrick, the Bengals get a big, physical corner who can cover the best of receivers and could very well start on opening day. They also added DT Devon Still and receiver Mohamed Sanu.
Those who possibly reached were the Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, and Seattle Seahawks. The Chiefs did not take a QB whether it was trade up for Tannehill or taking Osweiler or Foles or Cousins in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. They drafted DT Dontari Poe 11th overall, who impressed everyone with his combine but has been known for his lack of passion and known for his laziness and poor work ethic. He was taken ahead of the better tackle prospect in Fletcher Cox. Speaking of another great athlete but work ethic issues, Quinton Coples taken in the 1st round by the Jets. On the plus side, the Jets did take wide receiver Stephen Hill in the 2nd round. The Seahawks were probably the biggest disappointments in the draft as they reached big time for West Virginia OLB Bruce Irvin. Irvin was considered to be a 2nd round pick and he went 15th overall. He has 1st round talent, but his dedication and off the field problems could make him a very high boom-or-bust prospect. The Seahawks reached for the 2nd year in a row, but they believe in this guy and we will see in a couple of years. The addition of ILB Bobby Wagner could turn out good. They made headlines in drafting Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, who has been projected in the 4th and 5th round. Wilson will be a backup at best to Matt Flynn and will have to compete for that. Wilson has talent, but his size, 5'10-11, keeps him perhaps from being a starter in this league. Maybe he'll overcome this and has the desire and character to do so. It does seem to be a reach for taking a 3rd round flyer on a potential backup, but again, they like him. Of course, they could have taken Kirk Cousins.
I will also bang on the New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders for their lack of picks. The Saints did lose a 2nd round pick in the bounty gate scandal but also traded a 1st last year for running back Mark Ingram, who didn't produce quite like a 1st rounder. The Raiders were even worse as they did not pick until late in the 3rd round. They gave up a 1st for Carson Palmer, a 2nd to the Patriots, and forfeited the 1st 3rd for taking Terrell Pryor in the supplemental draft. What a mess they are. Notable undrafted free agent signings include Boise State QB Kellen Moore to the Detroit Lions, Houston QB Case Keenum with the Houston Texans, Arizona State OLB Vontaze Burfict with the Bengals, and running back Chris Polk to the Eagles, who might be the best of the undrafted free agent class.
I'll start with the Indianapolis Colts, who drafted Andrew Luck 1st overall, no shock there. They went heavy on offense in the draft, giving Luck plenty of weapons at his disposal as 8 of their 10 picks were on offense. They used the 2nd and 3rd round picks on tight ends: Coby Fleener, Luck's guy at Stanford, and Clemson's Dwayne Allen, who are the top tight ends in this draft as both Dallas Clark and Jacob Tammi, who followed Peyton Manning to Denver, are no longer on the team. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is a burner, but is small. You have a franchise QB hopefully for 10-15 years so you better surround him with talent right away as he tries to learn the game. The Washington Redskins gave up a lot to move up to #2 to take Robert Griffin III and it could very well be worth the gamble. Or so we think as the Redskins use a 4th round pick on Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins, who some feel can be a starter. Why would they do that? I know QB is the most important position in football and if something happens to Griffin, it's nice to have a starter. I know they have Cousins rated pretty high or else they wouldn't take him. But how can you take a guy who might compete for a starting job somewhere and have him be a backup to a guy who should be the starter? What about in training camp and preseason if Cousins outplays Griffin? The fans will be calling for Cousins. It reminds me of the 1994 Draft when Washington took Heath Shuler 3rd overall and Gus Frerotte in the 7th round and Frerotte eventually beat out Shuler as Shuler was a bust. Of course RG3 I don't think will be Shuler. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to me especially considering Cousins is a leader and wants to be a starter. You can't have two leaders at the QB position. But he is a 4th round pick for a reason, maybe he was over hyped and he'll either prove the critics right or wrong. This could eventually lead to a trade down the road, sort of like Atlanta a few years ago when the Falcons had both Mike Vick and Matt Schaub and traded Schaub for draft picks after he played well in a few games replacing an injured Vick. Maybe they trade Cousins, maybe they trade RG3? Trust me if RG3 is the guy, he will overcome this. If not, then the Redskins drafted the wrong guy.
Cleveland moved up one spot to take running back Trent Richardson, who they really liked and prevented Tampa Bay from moving up to grab him. Richardson can be an elite back and Cleveland needs all the help on offense they can get. But it doesn't excuse them from not being able to trade up for RG3. Then they take 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden out of Oklahoma State 22nd overall. Weeden has talent despite his age, but he operates from the spread offense, which as we seen has not translated into much success in the NFL, IE Blaine Gabbert. They needed a wide receiver more than they needed OT Mitchell Swartz in the 2nd round, but that's what they believe they needed so they took him. Minnesota got 3 late round picks from the Browns to move down one spot to 4th to take USC OT Matt Kalil, who they were going to take anyway and got more picks because of it. Maybe the whole "we aren't taking Kalil 3rd overall" was just a smokescreen for some team to trade up. The Vikings need a left tackle to protect Christian Ponder. They addressed secondary help in safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Josh Robinson.
Tampa Bay missed out on a chance to grab Trent Richardson so they traded down with Jacksonville for their 4th round pick even though I thought they were going to get cornerback Morris Claiborne, who they needed. Well they thought they could get him at 7, but Dallas moves up in what was perhaps the move of the draft to take Claiborne as they need a corner very bad. I absolutely loved what Dallas did right there, they made a statement saying "our secondary is not good enough and need to improve." They play in a division with Eli Manning and Victor Cruz, Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson, and RG3 and Pierre Garcon. I believe the Cowboys are a corner away from making the playoffs as they blew five double digit leads last year. Tampa Bay selects safety Mark Barron, who they claim they were going to take anyways. If that's true then OK, decent move. He is a top-10 player. But if they really thought they'd wanted and would get Claiborne at 7, then shame on them. I did like the Bucs trading up in the late first round to get the running back that Greg Schiano wants in Boise State's Doug Martin. Outside linebacker Lavonte David seems to be a really good fit. Jacksonville took Justin Blackmon as they need to give Blaine Gabbert help in the passing game. They also added value in DE Andre Branch. But they made perhaps the worst move in the draft by drafting a punter, yes a punter, in the 3rd round in Bryan Anger. A punter is a position of not great need as the Raiders have had the best punter in the league with Shane Lechler, and look how they do. There's no need to take a punter anywhere in the top-4-5 rounds. They don't win you games, especially in a passing league. Jacksonville is a terrible team and should be going for it more on 4th down and punting less. Maybe they did this to sell tickets LOL.
St. Louis had a great draft that includes the trade in March from the Redskins for three 1st round picks plus trading down with Dallas for the 14th pick and more picks. They took defensive tackle Michael Brockers out of LSU, a position they need. They took WR Brian Quick in the 2nd round to give Sam Bradford a much needed target and very talented but troubled corner back Janoris Jenkins. The Rams believe Jeff Fisher could work with Jenkins in order to control him. If it works out, then it's a home run. Of course they thought that back in '05 when Tennessee took Adam "Pacman" Jones and that turned out to blow up in their face, but of course the Titans took him 5th overall. Even though top-10 picks aren't used on inside linebackers, the Carolina Panthers believe that Boston College's tackling machine Luke Kuechly is worth a top-10 spot. The 2nd wide receiver in the draft, Michael Floyd, was drafted 13th overall with the Arizona Cardinals and will team up with Larry Fitzgerald to give them a potent 1-2 receiving combination. Of course, the Cards don't have anyone to throw the football to them.
Miami finally got a quarterback after missing out on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and Alex Smith. They took Ryan Tannehill 8th overall, which is a bit of a reach but the team believes he's a franchise guy and sometimes you have to reach early. Tannehill has the talent and ability, but is still pretty raw as he was a wide receiver at Texas A&M until midway through his junior year when he finally became the starting QB. Tannehill will probably have to sit a year or so and can sit behind Matt Moore, who was more than serviceable last year but not a franchise QB. That could be a problem though as you don't use an 8th overall pick for a guy to sit on the bench and get comfortable. That's my take. But the Dolphins shored up their offensive line by taking Stanford OT Jonathan Martin in the 2nd round. Another big QB prospect, and I mean big as in 6'8 Brock Osweiler went in the 2nd round with the Denver Broncos, who can afford to sit him a few years and learn behind Peyton Manning.
Teams like the Giants, Steelers, and Ravens had good drafts as usual. The Giants took Boise State running back David Wilson in the 1st round and wide receiver LSU Rueben Randle with the final pick of the 2nd round when he should have gone late 1st, early 2nd. The Steelers took the best guard in the draft in David DeCastro, who could be the best guard since Steve Hutchinson, in the 1st round and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams in the 2nd, who is very talented but failed marijuana tests as he tumbled from the 1st to 2nd round. The Steelers believe they can work on Adams and he can be a productive left tackle. The Ravens traded out of the 1st round and took Alabama's outside linebacker/defensive end Courtney Upshaw along with a couple of guards. The two teams with the two worst defenses statistically in the league in the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers upgraded their defenses. The Patriots actually traded up in the 1st round to take Syracuse DE Chandler Jones and took Alabama inside linebacker Dont'a Hightower with the other 1st round pick. The Packers took OLB Nick Perry, DT Jerel Worthy, corner back Casey Hayward.
Now onto the teams who I liked are the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles traded up for DT Fletcher Cox, the best DT prospect in the draft, ILB Mychal Kendricks, DE Vinny Curry, who has been considered a first round pick, QB Nick Foles for the future. The Bengals continue to do things right especially after last year's draft which featured AJ Green and Andy Dalton and the trading of Carson Palmer to Oakland for a 1st and 2nd round pick. The Bengals drafted Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick in the 1st round and traded down their 2nd 1st round pick to take guard Kevin Zeitler. In Kirkpatrick, the Bengals get a big, physical corner who can cover the best of receivers and could very well start on opening day. They also added DT Devon Still and receiver Mohamed Sanu.
Those who possibly reached were the Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, and Seattle Seahawks. The Chiefs did not take a QB whether it was trade up for Tannehill or taking Osweiler or Foles or Cousins in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. They drafted DT Dontari Poe 11th overall, who impressed everyone with his combine but has been known for his lack of passion and known for his laziness and poor work ethic. He was taken ahead of the better tackle prospect in Fletcher Cox. Speaking of another great athlete but work ethic issues, Quinton Coples taken in the 1st round by the Jets. On the plus side, the Jets did take wide receiver Stephen Hill in the 2nd round. The Seahawks were probably the biggest disappointments in the draft as they reached big time for West Virginia OLB Bruce Irvin. Irvin was considered to be a 2nd round pick and he went 15th overall. He has 1st round talent, but his dedication and off the field problems could make him a very high boom-or-bust prospect. The Seahawks reached for the 2nd year in a row, but they believe in this guy and we will see in a couple of years. The addition of ILB Bobby Wagner could turn out good. They made headlines in drafting Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, who has been projected in the 4th and 5th round. Wilson will be a backup at best to Matt Flynn and will have to compete for that. Wilson has talent, but his size, 5'10-11, keeps him perhaps from being a starter in this league. Maybe he'll overcome this and has the desire and character to do so. It does seem to be a reach for taking a 3rd round flyer on a potential backup, but again, they like him. Of course, they could have taken Kirk Cousins.
I will also bang on the New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders for their lack of picks. The Saints did lose a 2nd round pick in the bounty gate scandal but also traded a 1st last year for running back Mark Ingram, who didn't produce quite like a 1st rounder. The Raiders were even worse as they did not pick until late in the 3rd round. They gave up a 1st for Carson Palmer, a 2nd to the Patriots, and forfeited the 1st 3rd for taking Terrell Pryor in the supplemental draft. What a mess they are. Notable undrafted free agent signings include Boise State QB Kellen Moore to the Detroit Lions, Houston QB Case Keenum with the Houston Texans, Arizona State OLB Vontaze Burfict with the Bengals, and running back Chris Polk to the Eagles, who might be the best of the undrafted free agent class.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Final Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck - QB - Stanford
The Colts pretty much told Luck he's their guy to replace Peyton Manning.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor
The Redskins did not trade three first round picks to move up into #2 for anything else but RGIII.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
Here's a twist, the Vikings have been linked to USC OT Matt Kalil for some time to protect Christian Ponder's blindside. But lately, there have been reports of Minnesota trading out of that pick or passing on Kalil altogether. Maybe Kalil, who went to USC, reminds the Vikings too much of Los Angeles where they are rumored to be heading if they don't get this stadium issue resolved. Head coach Leslie Frazier came out and said tackle isn't a difference maker and they need a difference maker. The Vikings need a cornerback and take the best in the draft in Morris Claiborne. The Vikings need a corner as they play in a division with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and his group of receivers, and even Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall twice a year.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The Cleveland Browns need so much help on offense and really need a play maker and difference maker. They won't take Ryan Tannehill here, there are reports of possibly wide receiver Justin Blackmon for Colt McCoy. But it appears Blackmon is not worth taking here so they go the best running back and offensive player at this spot in Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil - OT - USC
The Bucs could trade out of this pick to someone who wants Matt Kalil as they really liked Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. They could also just sit here and take Kalil, the best left tackle in the draft, as they need a tackle.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma State
The Rams have been linked to Richardson and Claiborne and both are off the board. There are reports that they want a defensive tackle, possibly Fletcher Cox. Even if Matt Kalil fell here it would be good for QB Sam Bradford, who was hit a ton last here and even missed 6 games because of injury. But the Rams take the best wide receiver in the draft in Justin Blackmon. This should give Bradford a number one receiver he's clearly lacked.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Jaguars could use a wide receiver for Blaine Gabbert, but Justin Blackmon is off the board even though Michael Floyd is on the board. But the Jags need a corner and really love Stephon Gilmore so he's the pick.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
This is a desperation pick perhaps but the Dolphins need a QB after whiffing on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith in the offseason. The Dolphins like Tannehill a lot and unless someone trades up to get him or even Miami trades up, he'll be the pick here. The Dolphins have Matt Moore, who is decent but not a franchise guy. Moore can start for a year while Tannehill waits a year or so as he is not ready to start now. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman recruited and coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi State
The Panthers need a defensive tackle and take the best in the draft in Fletcher Cox. Some reports of Dontari Poe has climbed up the draft boards because of a great workout but seems to not the player Cox is.
10. Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron - S - Alabama
The Bills need a wide receiver, offensive tackle, and cornerback. Michael Floyd is on the board and would be a great number two opposite Steve Johnson. But the Bills don't seem to value him as he was not scheduled to workout with the Bills prior to the draft. Offensive tackle is a big point as they have worked out Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin. But GM Buddy Nix seemed to dismiss that notion of taking a tackle as they want a difference maker at 10 and that Chris Hairston can be a starter and there is a bunch of tackle depth in this draft. So it appears that the secondary is the option. The Bills seem to really love both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Mark Barron. Gilmore has the slight edge otherwise its pretty even. Gilmore is off the board but he'd be the pick if he was on the board. So the Bills select Barron, who is a top-10 talent. As of today, I've been hearing an awful lot of Barron being the guy the Bills want.
11. Kansas City Chief: Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw - DE/OLB - Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin - OT - Stanford
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus - DE/OLB - Illinois
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Brandon Weeden - QB - Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn - OT/OG - Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler - OG - Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill - WR - Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots: Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC
28. Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy - DT - Michigan State
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower - LB - Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellan - LB - Boise State
32. New York Giants: Mike Adams - OT - Ohio State
The Colts pretty much told Luck he's their guy to replace Peyton Manning.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor
The Redskins did not trade three first round picks to move up into #2 for anything else but RGIII.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
Here's a twist, the Vikings have been linked to USC OT Matt Kalil for some time to protect Christian Ponder's blindside. But lately, there have been reports of Minnesota trading out of that pick or passing on Kalil altogether. Maybe Kalil, who went to USC, reminds the Vikings too much of Los Angeles where they are rumored to be heading if they don't get this stadium issue resolved. Head coach Leslie Frazier came out and said tackle isn't a difference maker and they need a difference maker. The Vikings need a cornerback and take the best in the draft in Morris Claiborne. The Vikings need a corner as they play in a division with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and his group of receivers, and even Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall twice a year.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The Cleveland Browns need so much help on offense and really need a play maker and difference maker. They won't take Ryan Tannehill here, there are reports of possibly wide receiver Justin Blackmon for Colt McCoy. But it appears Blackmon is not worth taking here so they go the best running back and offensive player at this spot in Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil - OT - USC
The Bucs could trade out of this pick to someone who wants Matt Kalil as they really liked Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. They could also just sit here and take Kalil, the best left tackle in the draft, as they need a tackle.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma State
The Rams have been linked to Richardson and Claiborne and both are off the board. There are reports that they want a defensive tackle, possibly Fletcher Cox. Even if Matt Kalil fell here it would be good for QB Sam Bradford, who was hit a ton last here and even missed 6 games because of injury. But the Rams take the best wide receiver in the draft in Justin Blackmon. This should give Bradford a number one receiver he's clearly lacked.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Jaguars could use a wide receiver for Blaine Gabbert, but Justin Blackmon is off the board even though Michael Floyd is on the board. But the Jags need a corner and really love Stephon Gilmore so he's the pick.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
This is a desperation pick perhaps but the Dolphins need a QB after whiffing on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith in the offseason. The Dolphins like Tannehill a lot and unless someone trades up to get him or even Miami trades up, he'll be the pick here. The Dolphins have Matt Moore, who is decent but not a franchise guy. Moore can start for a year while Tannehill waits a year or so as he is not ready to start now. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman recruited and coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi State
The Panthers need a defensive tackle and take the best in the draft in Fletcher Cox. Some reports of Dontari Poe has climbed up the draft boards because of a great workout but seems to not the player Cox is.
10. Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron - S - Alabama
The Bills need a wide receiver, offensive tackle, and cornerback. Michael Floyd is on the board and would be a great number two opposite Steve Johnson. But the Bills don't seem to value him as he was not scheduled to workout with the Bills prior to the draft. Offensive tackle is a big point as they have worked out Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin. But GM Buddy Nix seemed to dismiss that notion of taking a tackle as they want a difference maker at 10 and that Chris Hairston can be a starter and there is a bunch of tackle depth in this draft. So it appears that the secondary is the option. The Bills seem to really love both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Mark Barron. Gilmore has the slight edge otherwise its pretty even. Gilmore is off the board but he'd be the pick if he was on the board. So the Bills select Barron, who is a top-10 talent. As of today, I've been hearing an awful lot of Barron being the guy the Bills want.
11. Kansas City Chief: Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw - DE/OLB - Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin - OT - Stanford
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus - DE/OLB - Illinois
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Brandon Weeden - QB - Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn - OT/OG - Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler - OG - Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill - WR - Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots: Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC
28. Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy - DT - Michigan State
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower - LB - Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellan - LB - Boise State
32. New York Giants: Mike Adams - OT - Ohio State
Thursday, April 19, 2012
2012 NFL Mock Draft V 2.0
1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Five Reasons Why I Wouldn't Want Ryan Tannehill
I've already written about the top two quarterback prospects in the draft: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/andrew-luck-vs-rg3.html). Both those men are slam dunk picks. The number three quarterback prospect in this year's draft is Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill could anywhere from #3 (with a team possibly trading up with Minnesota) to about #11 or #12. He does have great size, mobility, and arm strength. I'll tell you why I'm not buying the hype on Tannehill even though many are. Here are the five reasons why I wouldn't want Tannehill:
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
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