Thursday, June 21, 2012

Drafting Forwards in the Top-3 Equal Success

I wrote about how the Sabres should trade up to get into the top-3 of the NHL Draft to take either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-sabres-should-do-trade-up-into-top.html). As I know many of you probably disagree and that's fine. But I am going to prove you wrong because the NHL Draft provides very successful talent immediately as they enter the NHL. I will show you each of the forwards taken in the top-3 in each of the NHL Drafts dating back to 1997 as forward is what the Sabres need. Defensemen taken in the top-3 are successful as well and I could care less about goalies taken in the top-3. But I am focusing on forwards only because that's what the Sabres need most and if they take a defenseman or especially a goalie I will puke. So here are each of the forwards who were taken in the top-3 of each NHL Draft from 1997 to last year:

1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*

30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.

No comments:

Post a Comment