Carey Price Cleans Up NHL Awards; Montreal Needs to Build a Better Team; I Would Hate to be the Canadiens

Last night Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price cleaned up the NHL Awards by winning both the Hart and Vezina Trophies, the first goalie to do that since Jose Theodore did it for the Canadiens in 2002 which is surprising. Dominik Hasek did it for us in 1997 and 1998. Price also won the Ted Lindsay Award for MVP voted on by the players of the NHL (first goalie to win the Lindsay since Hasek) and the William Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed during the regular season (189). Price clearly is the MVP of the league because he carries the Canadiens and carried them to the division title and 50 wins and 110 points.

Price has led the Canadiens to back-to-back 100 point seasons and three in a row if the lockout shortened 2012-13 season went 82 games as they had 63 points in 48 games (107 points over 82 games) and won two division titles in those three seasons. Problem has not been the regular season as Price has been a huge part of their success the past three seasons. The problem has been in the playoffs where they lost in the second round this past season to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who I thought were much better than Montreal despite finishing behind them in the standings.

I thought Tampa was the best team in the East this season because of all their young star players that they drafted at the top of the draft (along with a few select players found elsewhere in the draft). Hopefully the Sabres will emulate that success with their top draft picks, namely Jack Eichel. Ok, Montreal did lose in six games to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2014, but the Rangers, who as great if not better goalie, had much better skilled players than Montreal and beat them. The Canadiens were upset in the first round to the seventh seeded Ottawa Senators in 2013.

The problem with the Canadiens is that they lack a lot of skilled forwards that can score on a consistent basis and need a couple of top-3 draft pick forwards that can be stars (as do a lot of teams). That's what wins in the NHL, top-3 picks. Max Pacioretty is their best forward as he scored 37 goals and 67 points. Tomas Plekanec is pretty good as is Brendan Gallagher. Alex Galchenyuk has not lived up to the hype since being drafted 3rd overall three years ago. He did have his first 20-goal season of his career, but has been moved from center to wing as he has not yet shown he can be a center. Their other source of offense comes from P.K. Subban, who scored 60 points and is usually up there with Erik Karlsson for most points scored by a defenseman.

Despite allowing the fewest goals (thanks to Price and Subban), the Canadiens were only 18th in goals scored and even worse, they were just 23rd in Corsi. You don't win Stanley Cups with that bad of a Corsi rating as teams that win the Cup rank near or at the top. They don't have enough skilled players to have a great Corsi nor maybe they're coach isn't good at it or maybe they rely way too much on Price and Subban. I think the answer is all of the above. Another reason I thought the Canadiens weren't that great of a team was because they struggled to beat bad teams, namely the Buffalo Sabres. The 30th place Sabres went 3-0-1 against them this season. That's awful.

The Canadiens really need to build a better team in front of Price. Sadly, they are in no position to be able to tank and finish near or at the bottom of the league and get high picks as they are usually very good in the regular season. Problem is they won't ever win the Cup nor contend for it in their current model. Yes they'll have 100-point seasons. Yes they'll have division titles. Yes they'll even win a playoff series or even get to a conference finals on the strength of Price. But they'll never win the Cup or even seriously contend in this form.

This is why I would hate to be the Canadiens right now because they're in no man's land. Boston, Philadelphia, and New Jersey are probably worse off than Montreal because Montreal will have great regular seasons. But the Canadiens are nowhere close to getting elite level forwards that you need to win the Cup or contend on a regular basis. They have the elite goalie and elite defenseman to win the Cup but not the forwards which is what you need to win the Cup as Cup winners have several top-3 picks in the draft.

Montreal is probably never going to tank or bottom out anytime soon and will continue to rely on Price to win them and bail them out of games. They'll have their great regular seasons but nothing to show for it. This reminds me of the Sabres teams from a few years ago with Ryan Miller where they won the division and made the playoffs but lost in the first round because they didn't have elite forwards. That's something I never want to be in ever again where we build around a goalie and can't win without that guy in net. I don't ever want that nor do I wish that on my enemies.

Thankfully, the Sabres won't have to rely on elite goalies as their best player is not a goalie. Yes we need a goalie but I want the elite level forwards and find the goalie instead of the other way around. One team that knows from experience how that never works is the Buffalo Sabres.

Drafting Forwards in the Top-3 Equal Success

I wrote about how the Sabres should trade up to get into the top-3 of the NHL Draft to take either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-sabres-should-do-trade-up-into-top.html). As I know many of you probably disagree and that's fine. But I am going to prove you wrong because the NHL Draft provides very successful talent immediately as they enter the NHL. I will show you each of the forwards taken in the top-3 in each of the NHL Drafts dating back to 1997 as forward is what the Sabres need. Defensemen taken in the top-3 are successful as well and I could care less about goalies taken in the top-3. But I am focusing on forwards only because that's what the Sabres need most and if they take a defenseman or especially a goalie I will puke. So here are each of the forwards who were taken in the top-3 of each NHL Draft from 1997 to last year:

1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*

30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.

Stick A Fork In Them, They Are Done?

The Buffalo Sabres were on such a high going into Friday night's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins especially after trashing the Washington Capitals, the team they are chasing, on the road 5-1 to pull ahead of the Caps by two points with five games. I thought they were in good shape and looked like they would make the playoffs. I also thought the Caps were going to crash because it looked like they quit in that game. Of course the one downfall from that game was the injury to Christian Ehrhoff. But the high of winning that game was greater than Ehrhoff's injury. Of course I was concerned because Ehrhoff was injured during the season and along with Tyler Myers' injury, Ryan Miller struggled in goal and the Sabres struggled overall. Then coincidentally, both Myers and Ehrhoff were healthy and Miller has been on a tear since January 24, going 19-3-5 heading into Friday night's game. As a result, the Sabres have gone from the bottom of the Eastern Conference to in a playoff spot going into Friday night's game against the Penguins.

I must admit, I felt good Friday even though they had Crosby, Malkin, and Staal but the Penguins lost three of four games going into that game and the Sabres also beat the Penguins two out of three games during the season. Plus it was home for Fan Appreciation Night, plus Fleury was not in goal and Brent Johnson was, whom the Sabres have ripped apart throughout his career including 3 goals in a 6-2 win over the Pens earlier this year. But there was a little concern just because of Malkin and Crosby but again, the Sabres shut out Ovechkin last Tuesday. Malkin and Crosby don't quit like Ovechkin either. So we had our work cut out for us. Malkin got a goal and so did Crosby in the 1st. Malkin's was a good goal and Miller should have made the save, but obviously Crosby should not been left alone. Crosby had a goal and three assists and Malkin got his 48th goal of the season and an assist, further adding to his league-leading point total. James Neal, who's having a fantastic year, netted his 38th goal of the season. Miller was not great allowing 4 goals but was not awful and the blame should not be on him. Not having Ehrhoff and later losing Myers did not help. But the Sabres lost 5-3 in regulation and earning no points. 3 goals scored was not enough. I felt they had plenty of chances on Brent Johnson and should have cashed in on it. They were tied for 8th after Friday night with the Caps after they beat Boston in a shootout Thursday night and were technically out of the playoffs because the Caps own the tie-breaker because of more regulation and overtime wins. I was not too mad about that loss because they were outplayed by Crosby and Malkin and that's what great players tend to do.

Then came Saturday night when the Sabres traveled to the Air Canada Centre in Toronto to take on the struggling Leafs. The loss to Pittsburgh hurt but it's understandable. A loss to Toronto is just unacceptable. The Leafs have completely fallen apart after their good start as they won just five games since February 6th, got their coach fired, and were on an 11-game losing streak at home going into Sat. night's contest, which included a 7-1 beat down courtesy of the Philadelphia Flyers. In that game, Leafs fans were chanting for the Toronto Blue Jays, the same Blue Jays team that hasn't made the playoffs since 1993 and are probably going to finish in 4th place out of 5 teams in the AL East. There was no way the Sabres could lose to the Leafs, was there? The tone was set early in the game when Joey Crabb (I know, who?) got a breakaway after a horrible turnover by Andrej Sekera and beat Miller on a shorthanded goal for a 1-0 lead. It was a tough save to make, but Miller needed to make it especially when the playoffs are on the line. Then down 2-1, John-Michael Liles scored a goal with a second left in the 2nd period to make it 3-1 when everyone crashed the net. The back breaker was when Matt Frattin scored on a 3-on-2 to make it 4-2 as the Leafs held on to beat the Sabres 4-3. It was such a horrible game. The Sabres were never ahead and scored 3 goals on rookie goalie Ben Scrivens (again, who?). To make matters worse, the Caps won Saturday night to take a two-point lead over the Sabres in the playoffs. Offense wasn't the problem for the Sabres as they scored 3 goals in each of the two games. Before this weekend, the Sabres were 30-4-4 when they scored 3 or more goals in a game. But the Sabres couldn't put their chances in the net enough against Toronto and their rookie no-name goalie. Unfortunately, Miller wasn't outplayed but obviously did not steal a game they needed him to. Scoring three or more goals for Miller is usually enough as he will put the game away.

Not this weekend though as he gave up 4 in each game. During his 19-3-5 run, he gave up 4 goals twice. Miller had no help as bad turnovers and poor play in front of him led to chances and goals. Miller obviously missed Ehrhoff and Myers and when both men had been out of the lineup this year, the Sabres struggled as did Miller. With them in the lineup, Miller and the team are worlds better. The Sabres are 30-21-4 with Myers in the lineup and 8-10-6 without him. They are 36-22-8 with Ehrhoff and 2-9-2 without him. So they make a huge impact. Miller had a GAA over 3.00 without them and its under 2.00 with them. So no big surprise there. Injuries matter. But I thought they could still beat a reeling Leafs team without those guys. This was a Leafs team that couldn't win at home and had their fans turn on them. So Myers and Ehrhoff are very valuable no shock there. They are more valuable to Miller. But why can't Miller win or steal a game without one or the other or both? Pittsburgh was a lot to ask for but not against Toronto. I like Miller and I think he's great. But I question his overall value as it appears he doesn't do well without his top-two defensmen in front of him. I don't want him to be traded, all I know is that with great talent in front, he or Enroth or whoever can be great. If not, then they struggle. I question the overall importance of goal tending or giving a guy $6-7 million if he can't win without everyone who matters in the lineup. Obviously I understand you cannot win without your best players in the lineup on a consistent basis. If you put Enroth or whoever in net with Myers and Ehrhoff in front of him, then he could be about as successful as Miller for a fraction of the price. That's for another discussion another day. Of course all I really want is for Myers and Ehrhoff to stay healthy.

Bottom line: the Sabres are two points behind the Caps with three games left and have to finish ahead of the Caps and cannot tie because the Caps own the tie-breaker. If the Caps collect four points in the final three games, the Sabres will be eliminated even if they win their final three games.I guess if Florida loses out they can get knocked out of the playoffs. It can be done, but it doesn't look good at this point. The Caps play the Lightning tonight so go Lightning (I'll be wearing my Steve Stamkos "shir-sey"). If the Caps win tonight and the Sabres lose in regulation tomorrow against the Leafs at home, then the Sabres will be officially eliminated from the playoffs.