EJ Needs To Win on the Road

There's no doubt about that if E.J. Manuel wants to be the franchise quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, he needs to win and play much better on the road then he has so far. Of course he's a rookie and rookies obviously struggle in year one, minus Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Big Ben to name only a small few. Outside of those, pretty much every rookie struggles in year one, but shows some promise at the end of the year and by the end of year two going into year three show you whether or not they are going to be the franchise guy or not.

Manuel has shown flashes of brilliance as well as struggles that every rookie goes through. He's been good at home/Toronto but has been bad I mean really bad on the road. Again, on a not so good football team with a rookie QB I don't expect a ton of wins, especially on the road. But what I need to see is at least one win and good performances in general from him on the road in their final two road games and this week's game at Jacksonville is the easier of the two, and that's not even that easy considering Jacksonville has won four of its last five after starting 0-8. Obviously the last game is New England and I just don't see Buffalo winning there, they never won at Gillette Stadium and haven't won in Foxborough since 2000, before Gillette was even built.

EJ has been a completely different QB at home/Toronto then he was on the road. In his five home games, Manuel has completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,068 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions along with a 91.8 QB Rating and a 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Pretty darn good numbers for almost anyone, especially a rookie. Oh yea, he is 3-2 at home and his two losses were by a combined 5 points. They lost on a late field goal to New England in the opener after which EJ played pretty darn well for a rookie in his NFL debut and lost in overtime in Toronto to Atlanta after both Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler fumbled, costing EJ a chance at a 4th quarter or overtime victory.

His final drive against Carolina was something of a beauty. He had his struggles during the game with an interception and a lost fumble but overcame that by leading an 80-yard drive with no timeouts left to throw a TD pass to Stevie with little time remaining. The win over Carolina looks even better now because of how well Carolina has played since. He completed 27 of 39 passes for 296 yards. His best game as a pro so far was the game against the New York Jets as he completed 20 of 28 passes for 245 yards for two long touchdowns in a 37-14 blowout of the Jets. EJ played very bad against the Jets earlier in the year at the Meadowlands but rebounded very nicely in this game. Plus EJ showed he could throw the deep ball, something that had been lacking in his game as he threw four long passes of 31 yards or longer. His one drive went just two plays with a 40-yard pass to TJ Graham and then followed that up with a 43-yard touchdown bomb to Marquise Goodwin. Plus EJ even had two QB sneaks on a 3rd-and-one and a 4th-and-one that were both converted for 1st downs to keep drives alive.

But on the road, it gets very, very ugly. He is 0-4 on the road and completed just 52.2% of his passes for 711 yards, 2 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, a very dismal 57.2 QB Rating, and an even more dismal 5.3 yards per attempt. Also, 20 of his 24 sacks have come on the road including 7 this past game at Tampa and 8 against the Jets. He must be more nervous or tentative in the pocket when on the road. Maybe the crowd noise or whatever gets to him, very understandable on the road in hostile environments. He needs to be able to overcome them. He's very cool and calm and relaxed in the pocket at home. Now he was pretty decent at Cleveland on Thursday night before he was injured as he was probably going to win that game. But he got hurt and missed the next four games and the Bills went 1-3, probably costing them a playoff berth.

His first road game was at the Jets which he was sacked eight times, most of it on the O-Line. EJ however really struggled and kept throwing deep passes out of bounds and not keeping them in play for a chance at a play or penalty. The positive was that how bad he played, he rallied them from a 20-6 deficit to tie the game at 20-20 late in the 4th with a nice TD pass to Scott Chandler, before the Bills blew it by giving up a TD to lose the game 27-20. At Pittsburgh, it was EJ's first game after missing more than a month with his injury and played absolutely dreadful. He was scared and kept checking down all day long, not going deep at all as he had no confidence whatsoever. That game scared me into thinking he was Trent Edwards all over again. I can see playing in Pittsburgh and against a great defensive mind like Dick LeBeau could be intimidating as he owns rookie QBs plus he was a little rusty. EJ completed just 22 of 39 passes for 155 yards for a dreadful 4.0 yards per attempt, but he only had 11 completions for 79 yards until a late garbage time TD drive where he completed 11 passes for 76 yards.

He did rally from that awful performance to play his best game against the Jets so everything seemed OK. Then came this past week at Tampa. Now if he was intimidated at Pittsburgh or even New York with the hostile crowd i could understand. Plus the cold weather and very windy conditions esp at Pittsburgh are tough for anybody. But this was Tampa, it was 80 something degrees and very sunny. No weather concerns whatsoever. Plus there was not much of a crowd so that couldn't be a problem either. And don't forget, he played his entire college career in Florida. And it was by far his worst game, even worse than Pittsburgh where I didn't think he could be worse. He was like a combination of Edwards and JP Losman. Very bad. So what was the problem? The Bills failed to score a single TD on a day in which the NFL set a record for most TDs scored in a single day, and many of those were scored in very snowy and horrible weather conditions. Again what was the problem? He was sacked 7 times and the line played bad at times. But half of those were on EJ himself as he missed seeing wide open receivers and had time to throw on at least four of his sacks. Plus he threw four INTs in which two of them were off receivers hands and the other two were terrible throws by him. His QB Rating was 31.2.

If anything was to change this season, it would be that the Bills don't get blown out on the road like they have the previous 13 years. But this season looks the same in terms of road blow out losses and EJ has been responsible for two of those and a third had he not played well in the 4th quarter against that Jets. If anything is going to change for this franchise in the future, its playing better and especially winning on the road if this team wants to be in the playoffs. And it starts with EJ playing much better than he has on the road and he must win on the road as well. You can't just win at home you know. This must start this week against Jacksonville. We shall see or else another QB has come and gone.

Upon Further Review; Geno Smith was only good against Justin Rogers

I know many say that Geno Smith “outplayed” E.J. Manuel in Sunday’s Bills loss to the Jets but the truth is, Smith only played well because one man made him look a lot better than he really was. That man’s name was Justin Rogers. Rogers is nothing more than a backup cornerback who really should be on the practice squad, or selling insurance for that matter, who only played because their top cornerbacks were injured and the Bills had no one else.

Smith completed his biggest passes to receivers who were “covered” by Rogers but that’s because they were mostly wide open. Any decent QB should be able to make the plays against such weak coverage. If not he shouldn’t be in the National Football League. 

Upon further review however, Smith didn’t look too good when he threw against other defenders not named Justin Rogers. The Bills best corner Stephon Gilmore is still out with his surgically repaired wrist and can’t come back soon enough. Leodis McKelvin went down with a hamstring injury and did not return the rest of the game. Even Ron Brooks is out indefinitely with a leg injury.

That meant playing safety Aaron Williams back to cornerback, a position in which he struggled badly his first two seasons in the league but played decent Sunday especially compared to Rogers. That meant one of our starting safeties had to move up to play corner. Rogers as you can tell is the team’s fourth cornerback. This doesn’t even include their best member of their secondary, safety Jairus Byrd who is out with plantar fasciitis.

Ok everyone, if you haven’t seen this already, I’m warning you about the numbers Smith put up against Rogers yesterday so go grab a sickness bag just in case. Trust me you’ll need it. Smith completed six of eight passes (75% completion) for 254 yards, a whopping 31.75 yards per attempt as four of those six passes went for 40 yards or more, and two touchdowns for an almost perfect 156.3 QB rating (two points shy of perfection). That’s not a joke that’s God’s honest truth.

Three of every four passes was complete with an average of 32 yards and one of every four passes was a touchdown. This does not include a 22-yard pass interference penalty against Rogers as well. 

Assume the penalty yardage were a completion, Smith would’ve been 7 for 9 (78%) for 276 yards and two touchdowns. One of the two touchdowns Rogers was beaten on was a 69-yard pass to Santonio Holmes in the 4th quarter after the Bills tied the game 20-20 to put the Jets ahead 27-20, which is the score they actually won by.

Ok hand me the sickness bag as I am throwing up just writing this as we speak. Rogers in all fairness just should not be in the lineup ever. He’s not an NFL corner at all. You don’t want to use injuries as an excuse but in this case when you have your top-3 corners out, your best safety out, and your other starting safety playing corner the results aren’t expected to be great especially in a passing league nonetheless. I think you could literally have no one cover the Jets corners instead of Rogers and I don’t think Smith could have done much better that’s how terrible Rogers was (I really hate trashing Rogers I really do).

But for those who thought Geno Smith was so much better than E.J. wait just one second as I am about to show Geno’s whopping numbers against those not named Justin Rogers. He was 10 for 21 (48%) for 77 yards, a measly 3.7 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a pathetic 17.5 QB rating. 

Those numbers don’t look so good. His overall numbers were pretty decent 16 of 29 for 331 yards, an impressive 11.4 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns, 2 picks, a not so hot 55 completion % and an 89.9 passer rating.

If you take the numbers vs. Justin Rogers and those not against Justin Rogers, they are extremely day and night. That’s been Geno Smith’s rookie season as he had some impressive moments followed by some awful moments. 

Of course one of the two interceptions was by linebacker Kiko Alonso, but I bet Alonso could have played cornerback in place of Rogers and could not have been beaten as badly and probably would have done a much better job against Jets receivers.

If anyone thinks the Bills made a mistake by drafting Manuel over Smith and think we took the wrong guy especially after Sunday’s game, don’t get it twisted. After all, it’s just one game between the two and three games into both men’s rookie seasons. 

Hopefully you read the above numbers Smith had vs. Rogers and the numbers against anyone else and think “my God he was really good against a practice squad corner but lousy against other somewhat decent defensive backs.” 

He should be great against the team’s 4th string corner; otherwise he shouldn’t even be in the NFL. But against other decent DBs he was terrible and he showed he is still a very raw rookie that needs to grow and develop.

Had Gilmore played or McKelvin not went down or even if Byrd was healthy, the Bills would’ve won despite how bad E.J. struggled throughout the game because Smith would’ve struggled worse. Instead there was a cornerback who looked like me out there and that’s why Smith did decent and the Jets won. 

Manuel was not good, completed less than half his passes for a 5.8 yards per attempt, he was sacked 8 times, threw countless balls out of bounds, and constantly looked rattled in his first road game against a superior defense. 

But he awoke in the second half and especially in the 4th quarter where he rallied the Bills from a 20-6 deficit to tie the game at 20-20 with a beautiful 33-yard touchdown pass to Scott Chandler and threw a nice pass to Stevie Johnson for the two-point to tie the game, only for Rogers to give up the game-winning TD.

Smith had the luxury playing against the Bills’ 4th string corner and banged up secondary while Manuel had to play against a very good Antonio Cromartie, rookie Kyle Wilson, no Darrelle Revis but the Jets’ secondary and defense is still one of the best in the league. 

Plus Manuel played behind Colin Brown, who was perhaps the Justin Rogers of the offensive line. Had the two QBs switched teams and Manuel got to play against Justin Rogers and the beat up Bills secondary and Smith had to play against the Jets’ strong defense, would Smith do better than E.J.? My guess probably not. 

I’d think E.J. would have done better than 10 of 21 for 77 yards against the other members of the Bills secondary not named Justin Rogers. Smith would have put up very similar if not worse numbers than E.J. did against the Jets defense. If the Bills had even one of their best corners play they would have beaten Geno and Jets.

I’m not going to say E.J. is better but he’s also not worse, it’s too early to tell. I’ve seen both E.J. and Geno play their first two games and E.J. played way better than Geno. It’s not just the stats even though E.J.’s first two regular season starts were better. 

Manuel completed 68% of his passes with 3 TDs, 1 INT, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 95.9 QB Rating. Smith on the other hand, completed just 53% of his passes for 1 TD, 4 INTs, 6.4 yards per attempt, and a 55.2 QB Rating. 

But what I was saw from their first two starts and even watched them in two preseason games each was that Manuel was more calm and poised in the pocket like a veteran QB and even out of the pocket and made nice plays as he looked like he was ready to play. Smith on the other hand was wild and careless with the ball and even looked like a rookie that wasn’t ready to play in the NFL, especially in the preseason.

Manuel struggled a lot of the game in New York and looked more like a rookie as he was not as poised and was a bit timid and shell shocked whereas Smith looked great only when he threw against Justin Rogers. But he was not as good against everyone else. Smith was lucky in Week 1 when he ran out of bounds and was hit late to setup the game-winning field goal. 

Smith did not play well that game and if it were not for the late hit, the Jets would not have won the game as they were out of field goal range prior to the penalty. Last week against New England, Smith struggled throwing 3 INTs and completed less than 50% of his passes and if he were better and more accurate, they’d have beaten the Pats.

Smith was lucky in his two wins as he was hit really late out of bounds and threw against the Bills’ 4th string cornerback. If he is not hit out of bounds against Tampa and played against one of our top-3 corners, Smith would be 0-3. The Jets defense played well in all three of their games and they kept the Jets in every game. But Smith has not impressed me at all except throwing against Justin Rogers, that’s it. 

I want him to lose and fail nothing against Smith but I don’t want another QB to be good in this division. We struggle enough against Brady. Of course we struggle against Rex Ryan and the Jets’ defense and struggled against Mark Sanchez. I also don’t want Smith to be good because I don’t want it to look like the Bills took the wrong QB. 

Of course I’m trying to focus on E.J. being the guy more so than Smith not being the guy. After all, these are the top-two QBs in this year’s draft class and they play in the same division so the comparisons will run ramp shod between the two as they’ll someday play each other for the division title (assuming Brady retires soon). 

This might not be Luck vs. RGIII but as long as Manuel plays well and wins, who cares? In a perfect world, E.J. would be our franchise QB and Smith will fall flat on his face. The worst case scenario will be the exact opposite.

I don’t dislike Smith personally and me bashing him for his performance Sunday isn’t sour grapes but he plays for the Jets, my second most hated team only behind New England. I want them to fail just like I hope the Pats will someday. So from now on, Smith is my enemy, public enemy #2 behind only Tom Brady.