This is a Deep Draft But Will it Rival the 2003 Draft?

Tomorrow's NHL draft is considered to be a very deep, talent rich draft, especially in the first round. It's not just Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, which are the top prizes, but the top-5, 10, maybe even the entire first round has potential great talent. It's supposed to be the deepest draft since the 2003 NHL Draft. The question is will be be as deep as 2003? (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-can-this-year-s-class-rival-2003-1.3126035) Here's an old article from five years ago (http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/further-proof-that-the-2003-nhl-entry-draft-was-the-best-of-all-time).

NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.

This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.

12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.

Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.

The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.

Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.

It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.

The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.

Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.

Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.

The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.

Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.

The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).

That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.

Bye Bye Derek Roy

Derek Roy being traded no doubt made a lot of Sabres fans happy yesterday, including myself. It was long overdue. I used to like Roy a lot. But I've gotten tired of his act the last few years. For me it was in the playoffs in 2010 when the 3rd seeded Sabres lost to the Bruins in the first round and he had zero goals that I wanted him gone. Fans disliked him long before. Many feel he's not a good teammate, is a problem in the locker room, is not a leader, not a good character guy, constantly clashes with Lindy Ruff, takes dumb penalties, whines to the refs, fails to show up in big games, fails to make his teammates better, and has a lack of focus because of all the partying that he does off the ice. Roy no doubt was a fairly productive player offensively in his Sabre career as he averaged nearly 0.80 points per game and had scored 18 or more goals in a full season every season from 2005-06 to 2009-10.

But Roy represents and might be the poster child for the "core" that has massively underachieved the last five years after both Chris Drury and Daniel Briere left in 2007. They were the young group of players that would carry this franchise to the promised land and failed to deliver. They had missed the playoffs three out of the last five seasons, including last season where they had the highest payroll in the league after Terry Pegula took over as owner in Feb. 2011. They also did not win a single playoff series. Whether or not these players were mentally tough enough or focused enough or just plain and simple not good enough, they couldn't get the job done. If the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, then this is not good enough and you have to shake up the roster and get better. They already let Tim Connolly leave and traded Paul Gaustad in the last year and now they traded Roy with one year left on his contract.

Roy's best statistical season came in the 2007-08 season, the season after Briere and Drury left, when he recorded 32 goals and 81 points in 78 games. From the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season, Roy averaged 27 goals and averaged 0.92 points per game a season. In the 2010-11 season, Roy was having by far his best season with 10 goals and 35 points in 35 games before he missed the rest of the regular season with a hip injury. This past season, Roy had his career-worst season stats wise (not counting his rookie season where he only played 49 games and the 2010-11 season where he only played 35) as he set career-lows in almost every major offensive statistical category. He scored only 17 goals, 27 assists, 44 points, was a -7, and had a 9.7 shooting % (his career average is 12.7). His 0.55 points per game was by far the lowest of his career not counting his rookie season after he had a point a game the year before. By the way, Roy played in 80 of the 82 games this season. His 27 assists this season were only two more than the 25 he had in 35 games the year before. He only had nine more points in 80 games than he had the year before in 35 games. Roy had as many 12 power play assists alone in 2010-11 as he had power play points in 80 games this past season.

To be fair, Roy did come a serious injury that they claim you need two years to recover and he got the injury in December 2010. He in the last year of his 6-year, $24 million deal so he would be in a contract year and he might breakthrough for a chance at a great contract. But the Sabres have been trying to move Roy apparently for two years now and now they got a gritty forward in Steve Ott and a depth defenseman in Adam Pardy. Roy still has some value as he is a top-6 forward and could be a very productive second line center if his head is on straight. He is not a number one center and unfortunately for most of the season he was our number one center as the Sabres had perhaps the worst center depth in the league as any team at the beginning of the season. The Sabres are still looking for a center in free agency or via a trade and they drafted two in the first round in Mikhail Grigorenko and Zemgus Girgensons. Girgensons is supposedly going to play college for Vermont while hopefully Grigorenko makes the team and can be the guy who was potentially the number one pick and compared to Evgeni Malkin before falling to the Sabres at 12. Don't forget the Sabres have Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson as their top-two centers right now and they're both pretty good.

Roy's problem for whatever reason is that he just doesn't make anyone around him better. As a center, that's what you are supposed to do. Even Tim Connolly was better at that than Roy was. Connolly didn't score a ton of goals (never got to 20) and rarely scored when it mattered the most (hasn't scored a playoff goal since Game 1 of the Ottawa Series in 2006 prior to his concussion), but he made the wingers on his line very productive scorers as he was a really good setup man. Roy doesn't do that quite so much. This past season, Drew Stafford and Tomas Vanek were both on lines with Roy, both struggled. Stafford was having an awful year after having 30 the year before while he was with Roy. I think he still had a single digit goal total as late as February before rebounding to score 20 when he was on a line with Ennis at center and Marcus Foligno and they were the best line on the team. Stafford scored 31 in 62 games the year before with I believe Connolly at center. Vanek was on pace for a 40 goal season, but was moved to the line centered by Roy and struggled before finishing strong down the stretch with Hodgson at center. The biggest point of Roy bringing the team down came in 2010-11 when he had 35 points in 35 games. But the Sabres record was 14-17-4 and were 10 points out of the playoffs with him in the lineup. The team outside of Roy struggled. Then after Roy was out, the Sabres went on a tear going 29-12-6 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference as they made the playoffs. I don't care what anyone says, there is some serious validity to Roy being out and the team being well. He played 80 games this past season and the Sabres underachieved and missed the playoffs.

So long Roy. It was nice knowing you.

Drafting Forwards in the Top-3 Equal Success

I wrote about how the Sabres should trade up to get into the top-3 of the NHL Draft to take either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-sabres-should-do-trade-up-into-top.html). As I know many of you probably disagree and that's fine. But I am going to prove you wrong because the NHL Draft provides very successful talent immediately as they enter the NHL. I will show you each of the forwards taken in the top-3 in each of the NHL Drafts dating back to 1997 as forward is what the Sabres need. Defensemen taken in the top-3 are successful as well and I could care less about goalies taken in the top-3. But I am focusing on forwards only because that's what the Sabres need most and if they take a defenseman or especially a goalie I will puke. So here are each of the forwards who were taken in the top-3 of each NHL Draft from 1997 to last year:

1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*

30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.

How Did the Kings Win?

How did the Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup? They were the first-ever 8th seeded team to win the Stanley Cup. Before this year, no team below a 5th seed and outside of the top-8 in overall NHL standings ever won the Cup. The Kings had 15 loser points and won just 40 of 82 games. So they had a subpar record. Outside of goalie Jonathan Quick and center Enze Kopitar, most of the players had career-worst years. the Kings scored the 2nd fewest goals of any team in the NHL this season, but they allowed the 2nd fewest. They really lacked elite star power on offense. Kopitar is very good but I am not sure he is an elite player. I like Captain Dustin Brown and Mike Richards, who the Kings acquired from Philly after last season. But both struggled in the regular season. They fired head coach Terry Murray in December with a 13-12-4 record. After brief run with interim coach John Stevens, the Kings hired Darryl Sutter as the permanent head coach. Sutter had been a good coach, but many felt his teams underachieved in the playoffs. The Kings did go 25-13-11 with Sutter as coach so the coaching change did work.

The Kings were in 11th place on March 11th, but were still in contention for the Pacific Division. They lost out to Phoenix and settled for 8th place in a very competitive Western Conference. They were 9-2-3 in their final 14 games, enough to lift them into the playoffs. They took on the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in the 1st round and many, including myself, predicted the Canucks would win and play for the Stanley Cup. Instead the Kings, behind Quick, shut down the high-scoring Canucks in five games, allowing just 8 goals. Quick was even more impressive against the 2nd seeded St. Louis Blues, where he allowed just 6 goals in a four-game sweep. Then the Kings displaced the 3rd seeded Phoenix Coyotes in 5 games as they moved onto the finals for the 2nd time in franchise history, the other was 1993 with Wayne Gretzky. The Kings were only the second team in NHL history to defeat the top-3 seeds in their conference, the other was the 2003-04 Calgary Flames, coached ironically by Darryl Sutter. The Kings continued their dominance in the first three games of the finals against the New Jersey Devils, outscoring them 8-2 as they were up 3-0 in the series. But the Devils fought back hard to win games 4 and 5 to force a 6th game back in L.A. However, the Kings scored 3 power play goals in the 1st period en route to a dominating 6-1 win and won their first-ever Stanley Cup in their 45-year history.

They finished a whopping 16-4 in the playoffs, including 10-1 on the roadwhich includes an NHL 10 consecutive road playoff victories and a road playoff record. Quick won the Conn Smythe Trophy with a 16-4 record, an incredible .946 save % and a 1.41 goals against average. Dustin Brown and Enze Kopitar tied for the lead in scoring with 8 goals and 20 points and a +16. Justin Williams had a good playoff and defensemen Drew Doughty was simply amazing averaging over 26 minutes of ice time. Former Flyers Mike Richards and Jeff Carter both had great playoffs after they both had down regular seasons. Richards and Carter showed the Flyers how wrong they were for shipping them away after last season’s playoff loss and they were the scapegoats because they partied and drank too much. How does that feel now Philly? They beat the team that beat you in the playoffs. Add Simon Gagne and former coach Flyer coach and current assistant coach John Stevens, and its even more pain for Flyer fans who have been waiting for a Cup since 1975. I could not be happier just based on that merit.

How in the world did the Kings win? Beats the heck out of me. It shows you that now you can make the playoffs and you have a strong shot to win. New Jersey could have won and they would be the first 6th seed to win the Cup, but they were no ordinary 6th seed as they had 100 points and barely finished 4th in the super competitive Atlantic Division. There is a lot of questions up coming for the Devils including will Brodeur retire and will they be able to keep some free agents, such as Zach Parise? I do want to congratulate New Jersey on a fantastic season despite the disappointing ending.

Sabres-Leafs Post Game Reactions

What a game last night as the Sabres overcame a 3-0 1st period deficit to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5 in overtime to keep their playoff hopes alive. There were so many emotions running through my head like "these guys are bums," "they are ready to go golfing," "way to not show up," to "holy cow they are going to win" and "they are going to make the playoffs." Yea it was a very bi-polar game,  but those are the most exciting games when you are disappointed and then you are super excited because you won. It's only good when you pull out a win. I was thinking "I did not want to be eliminated from the playoffs by the Maple Leafs and Ben Scrivens because they are terrible." I figured once the Sabres tied it up, they were going to win and I think they will make the playoffs.

The star of the game was without a doubt Marcus Foligno. He was all over the ice hitting players, finishing his checks, and even getting into a fight. He and fellow rookie Brayden McNabb were the only Sabres doing anything in the 1st period of a must-win game. The veterans were doing nothing while these two youngsters were setting the tone. Foligno's play of the game, which was the play of the game, came when they were trailing 5-4 with less than two minutes to go. He and Mike Komisarek were jawing at each other on the faceoff which led to Komisarek taking him down and punching him while Foligno was done and Foligno just took the punishment while there was a gigantic scrum in front of the net for the loose puck. Every Sabres on the ice minus Foligno and Miller were in front of the net poking and prodding until Jordan Leopold banged it home to tie the game up. Credit to the officials who were able to see the puck still in play. Generally those plays are blown dead once they lose control of where the puck is. Leaf fans were probably pissed and so would we if it happened to us, but it was the right call. Foligno created that goal by getting in Komisarek's head with the jawing and the play behind the net which led to Komisarek losing his control and focus and eventually the game. There's never been a time I can remember when someone who didn't score a goal, had more to do with it than the person who scored like what happened last night.

Foligno's hitting and physical play has been awesome, but his physical play creates chances and goals and he scores goals. Hopefully he can our Milan Lucic or even his father Mike, who was one of the most popular Sabres ever with his scoring and physical play. If Marcus keeps this up, he will join the ranks of his father in terms of popularity in Sabres history. The not being physical or tough enough point is a bit overrated because when the Sabres win because of their offense, no body mentions physical play. When they lose, it's easy to say "they're not physical or tough enough and they lack effort." I know, I'm guilty of that to at times, I'm calling myself out here. But reality sets in and I know the truth, they are a scoring team that can be physical, but they are trying to score first and foremost. Their record this season when they score 3 or more goals is 31-6-4. Of course last night, the more they scored, the more physical it seemed they were. When our team is scoring and winning, it makes everything look better. They look like they are trying harder and are more physical. They are more fun to watch when they are winning and scoring. Conversely, when they lose and not scoring, it makes them look like they are not physical and not trying. They also look dull and boring. Since being called up no March 10, the Sabres have been 8-2-2 in 12 games with Foligno in the lineup. He's scored 6 goals and 13 points and is a +9 with a shooting percentage of a whopping 30.0. Foligno is also averaging over 15 1/2 minutes of ice time a game. There's no doubt his physical play and scoring have brought such a needed spark to this team. He is what we wanted Zack Kassian to be, a big physical forward who hits, finishes off his checks, fights, and most importantly scores.

Ryan Miller continues to struggle without Tyler Myers or Christian Ehrhoff in the lineup in front of him. He obviously trusts them because they don't get out of position much and have the talent to break up plays before they even start. Most of the other defensemen on this team like Weber and Sekera can't do the things like Myers or Ehrhoff and have to sit back. Miller has to gamble more and overcompensate without them in the lineup and it leads to many more opportunities for the other team to score. Miller is really cool, calm, and collective with Myers and Ehrhoff in the lineup. Myers and Ehrhoff bring the goals allowed by over one full goal per game when they are in the lineup. Miller struggles too, but the other defense, although Regehr and Jordan Leopold do a pretty good job most of the time, is not as good without those two in the lineup. I need Miller to be better without them in the lineup as Ehrhoff will be out for the rest of the regular season and Myers may or may not be back this week. This is the 3rd straight game Miller and the Sabres allowed 4 or more goals a game. I need Miller to be better, but I also need Myers and Ehrhoff to be healthy and hope they can be healthy next year and beyond. One of the many reasons the Sabres as well as Miller turned their season around in the middle of the season was because Myers and Ehrhoff and Myers were back and healthy and playing well. They really control the game on both sides of the ice. We really need one or two more of those guys on this team.

Alex Sulzer had a great game as well as a big mistake that nearly cost them the game. He was beat by former Sabre Clarke MacArthur in the front of the net to make the score 4-2 as he was on the ice for three of the Leafs' 5 goals. But Sulzer more than made up for it by scoring a beautiful goal thru both former Sabre Tim Connolly and Ben Scrivens to make it 3-2. He also set up Tyler Ennis for the Sabres' first goal after being down 3-0. Sulzer did not stop there as he once again picked up a loose puck in front of the net to score his 2nd of the game to make it 5-4. Sulzer came over from Vancouver in the Cody Hodgson deal and it figured he'd be just another body. But he has played much better than expected. He's scored 3 goals and 8 points as well as averaging nearly 20 minutes in ice time and has played better than expected defense.

Now how about the man who scored the game-winner? The unlikely hero of the game: Derek Roy. Roy scored a power play goal to cut the lead to 4-3 in the 3rd. Then after the Sabres tied it and sent it to overtime, Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf was called for a delay of game penalty for clearing the puck over the glass. Roy slipped a loose puck past Scrivens for an improbably 6-5 overtime win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Roy became the unsung hero as many, including myself, dogged him throughout the game especially in the 1st period. Roy has been having his worst season since he was a rookie. His 43 points and 0.55 points per game is his lowest in a full season. He had 35 points last season in 43 fewer games. His -9 and 9.8 shooting % are the worst of his career. Many fans, even myself, wanted him traded at the trade deadline and even this off season. Roy was apparently on the trading block last off season, but either no one wanted him or the deal was not good enough. Roy has definitely been the poster child for the team's lack of success by many of the fans, especially since Connolly left. Last season, the Sabres were 10 points out of a playoff spot going into the 1st of the year and had one of the best records in the league after he was done for the year with a hip injury. Before last night's game, Roy had been pointless in five consecutive games and seven of the previous games. It's been truly a disappointing year but he made up some of it with his performance last night and if they get in, then we can thank Roy. And then trade him LOL.

Last night's game was a microcosm of the season so far. There was great expectations going into the game just like going into the season. Then they go down 3-0, which resembles the way they played from mid-November when Miller was hit by Lucic to late-January when they were in last place in the Eastern Conference. We mostly gave up on them, I know I did. Last night I thought it was over. Then they come back to make it 4-3 and make a run like they did from Jan. 24 to last weekend as they played so much better. Then Toronto scored a goal in which the skater went right through the defense to make it 5-3. That was symbolic of how the Sabres were this past weekend against Pittsburgh and Toronto. Then the Sabres rally to tie it to keep their hopes alive in both the game and playoffs. Sabres win it in overtime to overcome a 3-0 and 5-3 deficit. If this trend continues, then the overtime goal symbolizes the Sabres in the playoffs.

Sabres need to win their last two games against Philadelphia and Boston. They also need either Florida to win tomorrow night against Washington in either regulation or even overtime or shootout, this allows the Sabres to control their own destiny by winning out. The Caps cannot gain more than 3 points or else they're in. Or the Sabres need Florida to not get a single point over the final two games. Of course the Sabres need to win out for this to be a reality. If either one of those scenarios happen, the Sabres are in the playoffs. I will be glued to my TV tomorrow watching the Sabres and keep a close eye on the Washington-Florida game. Here we go again!! Go Sabres!!

Stick A Fork In Them, They Are Done?

The Buffalo Sabres were on such a high going into Friday night's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins especially after trashing the Washington Capitals, the team they are chasing, on the road 5-1 to pull ahead of the Caps by two points with five games. I thought they were in good shape and looked like they would make the playoffs. I also thought the Caps were going to crash because it looked like they quit in that game. Of course the one downfall from that game was the injury to Christian Ehrhoff. But the high of winning that game was greater than Ehrhoff's injury. Of course I was concerned because Ehrhoff was injured during the season and along with Tyler Myers' injury, Ryan Miller struggled in goal and the Sabres struggled overall. Then coincidentally, both Myers and Ehrhoff were healthy and Miller has been on a tear since January 24, going 19-3-5 heading into Friday night's game. As a result, the Sabres have gone from the bottom of the Eastern Conference to in a playoff spot going into Friday night's game against the Penguins.

I must admit, I felt good Friday even though they had Crosby, Malkin, and Staal but the Penguins lost three of four games going into that game and the Sabres also beat the Penguins two out of three games during the season. Plus it was home for Fan Appreciation Night, plus Fleury was not in goal and Brent Johnson was, whom the Sabres have ripped apart throughout his career including 3 goals in a 6-2 win over the Pens earlier this year. But there was a little concern just because of Malkin and Crosby but again, the Sabres shut out Ovechkin last Tuesday. Malkin and Crosby don't quit like Ovechkin either. So we had our work cut out for us. Malkin got a goal and so did Crosby in the 1st. Malkin's was a good goal and Miller should have made the save, but obviously Crosby should not been left alone. Crosby had a goal and three assists and Malkin got his 48th goal of the season and an assist, further adding to his league-leading point total. James Neal, who's having a fantastic year, netted his 38th goal of the season. Miller was not great allowing 4 goals but was not awful and the blame should not be on him. Not having Ehrhoff and later losing Myers did not help. But the Sabres lost 5-3 in regulation and earning no points. 3 goals scored was not enough. I felt they had plenty of chances on Brent Johnson and should have cashed in on it. They were tied for 8th after Friday night with the Caps after they beat Boston in a shootout Thursday night and were technically out of the playoffs because the Caps own the tie-breaker because of more regulation and overtime wins. I was not too mad about that loss because they were outplayed by Crosby and Malkin and that's what great players tend to do.

Then came Saturday night when the Sabres traveled to the Air Canada Centre in Toronto to take on the struggling Leafs. The loss to Pittsburgh hurt but it's understandable. A loss to Toronto is just unacceptable. The Leafs have completely fallen apart after their good start as they won just five games since February 6th, got their coach fired, and were on an 11-game losing streak at home going into Sat. night's contest, which included a 7-1 beat down courtesy of the Philadelphia Flyers. In that game, Leafs fans were chanting for the Toronto Blue Jays, the same Blue Jays team that hasn't made the playoffs since 1993 and are probably going to finish in 4th place out of 5 teams in the AL East. There was no way the Sabres could lose to the Leafs, was there? The tone was set early in the game when Joey Crabb (I know, who?) got a breakaway after a horrible turnover by Andrej Sekera and beat Miller on a shorthanded goal for a 1-0 lead. It was a tough save to make, but Miller needed to make it especially when the playoffs are on the line. Then down 2-1, John-Michael Liles scored a goal with a second left in the 2nd period to make it 3-1 when everyone crashed the net. The back breaker was when Matt Frattin scored on a 3-on-2 to make it 4-2 as the Leafs held on to beat the Sabres 4-3. It was such a horrible game. The Sabres were never ahead and scored 3 goals on rookie goalie Ben Scrivens (again, who?). To make matters worse, the Caps won Saturday night to take a two-point lead over the Sabres in the playoffs. Offense wasn't the problem for the Sabres as they scored 3 goals in each of the two games. Before this weekend, the Sabres were 30-4-4 when they scored 3 or more goals in a game. But the Sabres couldn't put their chances in the net enough against Toronto and their rookie no-name goalie. Unfortunately, Miller wasn't outplayed but obviously did not steal a game they needed him to. Scoring three or more goals for Miller is usually enough as he will put the game away.

Not this weekend though as he gave up 4 in each game. During his 19-3-5 run, he gave up 4 goals twice. Miller had no help as bad turnovers and poor play in front of him led to chances and goals. Miller obviously missed Ehrhoff and Myers and when both men had been out of the lineup this year, the Sabres struggled as did Miller. With them in the lineup, Miller and the team are worlds better. The Sabres are 30-21-4 with Myers in the lineup and 8-10-6 without him. They are 36-22-8 with Ehrhoff and 2-9-2 without him. So they make a huge impact. Miller had a GAA over 3.00 without them and its under 2.00 with them. So no big surprise there. Injuries matter. But I thought they could still beat a reeling Leafs team without those guys. This was a Leafs team that couldn't win at home and had their fans turn on them. So Myers and Ehrhoff are very valuable no shock there. They are more valuable to Miller. But why can't Miller win or steal a game without one or the other or both? Pittsburgh was a lot to ask for but not against Toronto. I like Miller and I think he's great. But I question his overall value as it appears he doesn't do well without his top-two defensmen in front of him. I don't want him to be traded, all I know is that with great talent in front, he or Enroth or whoever can be great. If not, then they struggle. I question the overall importance of goal tending or giving a guy $6-7 million if he can't win without everyone who matters in the lineup. Obviously I understand you cannot win without your best players in the lineup on a consistent basis. If you put Enroth or whoever in net with Myers and Ehrhoff in front of him, then he could be about as successful as Miller for a fraction of the price. That's for another discussion another day. Of course all I really want is for Myers and Ehrhoff to stay healthy.

Bottom line: the Sabres are two points behind the Caps with three games left and have to finish ahead of the Caps and cannot tie because the Caps own the tie-breaker. If the Caps collect four points in the final three games, the Sabres will be eliminated even if they win their final three games.I guess if Florida loses out they can get knocked out of the playoffs. It can be done, but it doesn't look good at this point. The Caps play the Lightning tonight so go Lightning (I'll be wearing my Steve Stamkos "shir-sey"). If the Caps win tonight and the Sabres lose in regulation tomorrow against the Leafs at home, then the Sabres will be officially eliminated from the playoffs.

Ennis-Stafford-Foligno

This blog focuses on the number one line of Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford, and Marcus Foligno. This is definitely the number one line on the Sabres, it's the first time since early this season with Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Luke Adam the Sabres had a legitimate number one line and this one blew away that one. Adam has long since been demoted to Rochester, where he has been struggling and who knows his future, and Vanek, whose played better as of late, has struggled since the New Year. Once again, the Ennis-Stafford-Foligno line was the best line the other night in the Sabres' big win (huge understatement) against Washington. Stafford had two goals while Ennis assisted on both goals, including a beautiful play in which he deked the sprawling Caps defender and made a beautiful pass to Stafford, who banged it home for his second goal of the game to make 5-1. Foligno did not score but he was impactful nonetheless. He had plenty of chances plus his play along the boards and in front of the net remains a huge strength and has continued to since he was called up from Rochester.

One of the biggest keys to the Sabres turnarounds has been Tyler Ennis being the number one center. Ennis struggled at the beginning of the season and then was injured as he missed a total of 34 games. Since coming back on January 31, Ennis has 9 goals and 22 points in 27 games, including 5 goals and 14 points and is a +12 in the last nine games. He has been red hot. This team needed a center badly and for whatever reason, the Sabres did not try him out at center even though he has experience until later in the season. It has been truly a revelation for Ennis and the Sabres. Then adding Cody Hodgson at the trade deadline gave the Sabres a lethal 1-2 punch at center with Derek Roy as number 3. Ennis' speed and playmaking ability is a natural fit at center. Stafford has been red hot as well as he has 6 goals and 14 points in the last 8 games. Stafford is up to 17 goals and has a chance at 20 in a season in which was his career-worst. At one point I thought he would have trouble getting to 10. But since playing with Ennis and even Hodgson for a bit and getting taken off the roy line, Stafford has looked so much the player who scored 31 goals in 62 games last season and got a new $4 million a year deal in the offseason. He was a huge disappointment but with a true center he has flourished. What can be said about Foligno? Since being called up earlier this month, Foligno has had 6 goals and 10 points in 8 games. Foligno has been a force along the boards and in front of the net and has banged home his opportunities whenever he's had the chance. He's also been a physical presence. Had Zack Kassian done what Foligno has done, he would still be up here. But instead, he was shipped off to Vancouver in exchange for Cody Hodgson and Alex Sulzer. I'd say that's worked out.

Speaking of Hodgson, he has finally been scoring. But even when he wasn't, he still created a lot of chances and handled and possessed the puck very well and brought a new life to this once struggling offense. Vanek has played well playing on his line. Hodgson ripped a shot which Vanek rebounded for the third goal. The play of the game no doubt was when Sabres captain Jason Pominville stripped the puck from Alex Ovechkin and scored short-handed to put the Sabres up 4-1 which effectively gave the Sabres the win and the 8th spot all by themselves. Ryan Miller has continued his recent hot streak as he made 44 saves and improved to 14-1-3 in his last 18 games. The Sabres had their biggest win in quite sometime. If the Sabres make it, this is the game that without a doubt puts them in. If they somehow win a playoff series, I will point to this game as the one that really gave this team the confidence to win. Maybe the Rangers 4-1 win last week would be the real game as they beat the 1st place Rangers. But this Caps win on the road has been real special as they were never really threatened at all. Ovechkin was once again not a factor against the Sabres. If the Sabres have success in the playoffs, I'll look to the Ennis-Stafford-Foligno line as the line that sparked this amazing run.

It's Time For Roy To Go, Need a True No. 1 Center

I thought at the trade deadline, the Sabres would get rid of Derek Roy. Roy has been having his worst season as a Sabre since he became a fixture on this team in the 2005-06 season. He currently has 14 goals and 36 points in 64 games and is also a -11. Excluding his rookie season in 03-04 (when he only played in 49 games) and his injury shortened season a year ago, his lowest goal and point totals came in 05-06 when he had 18 goals and 46 points in 70 games. He might surpass them, "might." He had been playing better with 11 points in a 12-game stretch which might have led many to think his trade value had been increased in order to trade for him. The deal must not have been that good because he is still here over a week later. They did get a 1st round pick for Paul Gaustad, a 4th line center. Recently, Roy has cooled off as he has been pointless the last 3 games and is a -4. Last night's "must-win" game against Winnipeg in which the Sabres would have been in an 8th place tie for the playoffs if they won in regulation, the line of Roy, Tomas Vanek, and Jason Pominville produced 0 points and was on the ice for both Jet goals in the 3rd period in a 3-1 loss.

It's obvious that Roy has struggled this season and now the top-two scorers in Pominville and Vanek have struggled on his line. To be fair, Vanek has struggled with just 4 goals since the 1st of the year and that was before Roy was centering his line. Pominville has been in a season-worst slump of 6 consecutive games without a point. They had been winning without the top line producing. But now in last night's loss when the top line should have gotten them a clutch goal in the 3rd period, they failed to produce and gave up two goals. Now it's time to get Roy off that line. Hopefully they put Cody Hodgson on the top line even though he had been playing well on the Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford line. IDK about Ville Leino, who has been well with Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Kaleta. Roy should actually be a healthy scratch tomorrow night at home against Carolina.

The obvious thing is that in the offseason Roy needs to go. He's got one more year left on his deal and I'm sure he won't yield much of a return, but who cares he needs to go for whatever. I know they will lose a center, but I don't care. They need to get a number 1 center anyways either through a trade or possibly trade up to draft one in the top-3. Roy is not a number one center and this point, he is a number 3 or possibly 4. Roy just doesn't have a place on this team unless it's the 4th line, but you can't really put a $4 million center on the 4th line. There is no sense keeping him on the team after this season whether or not they make the playoffs. As a center your job is to make others around you better and setup players for scoring chances and goals. Also, the center really needs to have awesome puck control and puck possession, especially in the other team's end to create plays and keep the other team from possessing the puck. Roy does none of the above. I don't know what his deal or issue is but clearly he is holding this team and players on his line back.

Vanek has been a problem playing with Roy with the exception of the 2006-07 season. It seems when Vanek plays on a line not centered by Roy, he plays better. It's not a coincidence. Yes Vanek has struggled badly since the 1st of the year and yes all those games were with Roy. But Roy has kept the slump going. This year, Drew Stafford was struggling mightily with Roy on the line. Since being taken off, Stafford has been scoring more and burying his chances. Last season, many of Stafford's 31 goals came after Roy was injured and missed the 2nd half of the season. Stafford did much better last season with Tim Connolly at center. Love or hate Connolly, he was still a natural center that can make players around him better and was a point a game guy. Too bad Connolly didn't bring leadership nor make clutch goals especially in the playoffs. So has Derek Roy. Look, I don't hate Roy and i used to like him a lot as a player even though he can drive you nuts with his whining and taking dumb penalties but he scored. Then two years ago in the playoff loss to the Boston Bruins, he along with Connolly failed to score a single goal and i thought it was time to go. Plus Roy has been publicly admitting that he doesn't follow Lindy Ruff's system and admitted that he should follow his system. Yea no duh Roy.

Last season, Roy was having his best season with 35 points in 35 games before being injured and missing the rest of the regular season. At that point, the Sabres were 10 points out of a playoff spot and were one of the bottom five teams in the league. Players like Vanek, Pominville, Gaustad, Connolly, Hecht, Tyler Myers, Nathan Gerbe, and even Ryan Miller were struggling. When he was out, all these players played much better after the 1st of the year and they had the best record in the Eastern Conference and made the playoffs without Roy in the lineup. I don't think that's a coincidence. This season, many of the Sabres are having their career-worst seasons and Roy has been in the lineup most of the season and they are currently on the outside looking in.

Look, I don't want to put all the blame on Roy the other players are paid to play too so if there is a problem Roy, they need to address it and deal with it. That's life. Guys like Miller, Vanek, Stafford, and Myers who have struggled all or most of the season make big money and it's up to them to figure out a way to get their heads out of their you know what's and play up to their contracts. That being said, Roy is still a huge problem and there is a large body of work showing that the team is better without him. That should be enough to justify parting ways with him and doing the best to get another center in here. I like Hodgson so far, Ennis had played well at center, Leino struggled at center but has played much better the past couple of weeks, and Luke Adam was off to a great start before going a long stretch without a point and being sent down to Rochester. It's important to get a legit number one center and build center depth. We have a surplus of defensemen, wingers, and even draft picks to package for a deal for a number one center or move into the top-3 of the draft. I don't care Darcy, get us a number one center. It is obvious that Roy is not the answer.