Tomorrow's NHL draft is considered to be a very deep, talent rich draft, especially in the first round. It's not just Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, which are the top prizes, but the top-5, 10, maybe even the entire first round has potential great talent. It's supposed to be the deepest draft since the 2003 NHL Draft. The question is will be be as deep as 2003? (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-can-this-year-s-class-rival-2003-1.3126035) Here's an old article from five years ago (http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/further-proof-that-the-2003-nhl-entry-draft-was-the-best-of-all-time).
NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.
This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.
12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.
Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.
The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.
Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.
It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.
The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.
Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.
Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.
The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.
Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.
The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).
That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.
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