Jeff Skinner appears to now be on the trade market as well. Carolina is rebuilding picking in 5th in tomorrow night's draft. They are trying to get another high pick next year as well as possibly re-sign Eric Staal or else move him and brother Jordan and continue to rebuild. I'd take either Skinner or either Staal or take Skinner and maybe even Eric in a salary dump and let him play out one year before he becomes a UFA.
Skinner is a very talented and productive offensive player. He's only 22 soon to be 23 years old so he's just beginning his career really despite being in the league for five seasons already. Skinner was the 2011 Calder Trophy winner as rookie of the year, playing all 82 games and scoring 31 goals at just 18 years old. He's the first player to win the award entirely as an 18 year old since Buffalo's Tom Barrasso did it in 1983-84.
Skinner has had injury problems especially with concussions as he only appeared in 64 games the following season but scoring 20 goals. He had 13 goals in the lockout shortened season in 2012-13 which would have amounted to about 25 goals in a full season. Skinner had a career-high 33 goals in 2013-14 after playing in 71 games after missing games because of a concussion. He regressed to 18 goals, 31 points in 77 games on a terrible Hurricanes team.
I'm sure Carolina would want a lot for Skinner and if I were them, I'd ask for next year's first round pick because if the Sabres miss the playoffs which is likely, they can get a chance at a top-3 pick next year in the lottery. I'm sure they're going to want one of our defenseman either Zadorov or Pysyk and maybe one of our top young forwards. If the Sabres are interested in winning which I think they are, they can't worry about next year's pick or any prospects, which I don't think Tim Murray will.
Thursday, June 25, 2015
This is a Deep Draft But Will it Rival the 2003 Draft?
Tomorrow's NHL draft is considered to be a very deep, talent rich draft, especially in the first round. It's not just Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, which are the top prizes, but the top-5, 10, maybe even the entire first round has potential great talent. It's supposed to be the deepest draft since the 2003 NHL Draft. The question is will be be as deep as 2003? (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-can-this-year-s-class-rival-2003-1.3126035) Here's an old article from five years ago (http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/nhl/further-proof-that-the-2003-nhl-entry-draft-was-the-best-of-all-time).
NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.
This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.
12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.
Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.
The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.
Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.
It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.
The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.
Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.
Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.
The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.
Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.
The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).
That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.
NHL drafts usually don't produce a ton except for the top three-to-five picks. It's really a crap shoot when you get out of the top-5, top-10. The 2003 NHL Draft however did not just produce talent at the top. No way, the vast majority of the first round picks turned out to have very productive careers in the NHL. Not only was the first round very successful, the second produced a decent amount of talent as did the rest of the rounds in that draft.
This is probably the best draft in NHL history, some say even better than the 1979 NHL draft that featured a total of five hall of famers including Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, and Mike Gartner with three of the hall of famers selected in the first round (Messier was taken the 3rd round). Technically there's six hall of famers from that draft if you count Dino Ciccarelli, who went undrafted.
12 of the 21 first round picks that year were selected to at least one All-Star game, 19 of the 21 picks played in at least 450 NHL games and every one of the 21 picks played in at least 200 games. 82% of the total picks played in at least NHL game. This might still be the best of all time depending on how many of the players from the 2003 draft make it to the Hall of Fame. The 1979 draft could be even greater if then 18-year-old Wayne Gretzky entered the draft, but his rights were retained by the Edmonton Oilers after they had him in the WHA before they moved to the NHL.
Anyways back to 2003, every one of the 30 picks in the first round went on to play at least one game in the NHL with 28 of those playing in at least 200 games. 14 of those 30 made it to at least one All-Star game, 12 have representer their country in the Olympics, and nine have won the Stanley Cup. Five players in the draft (including second round pick Patrice Bergeron) played significant playing time in their rookie seasons and every player drafted in the top-10 played in at least nine games by the end of the 2005-06 season.
The first overall pick of that year's draft was Marc-Andre Fleury. This is second time ever and hasn't happened since that the #1 overall pick was used on a goalie (Rick DiPietro in 2000 was the other). Roberto Luongo was the previous highest at #4 in 1997 and Kari Lehtonen was second in 2002. Drafting goalies in round 1 is never really a good idea (unless its at the bottom of round 1 and you have depth everywhere else) because you can find goalies anywhere in the draft. Many of the best goalies in NHL history were taken outside the first round.
Both #1 overall pick goalies have been busts, DiPietro more so because of his 15-year contract but he was pretty good until then until injuries and inconsistent play along with having to live up to that gigantic contract. Fleury was actually very good early in Pittsburgh, winning a Stanley Cup in 2009 after being in the finals the year before. He was very good in those two playoff runs and gave the Penguins hope for a long term goalie. Since then however, his performances have been laughable in the postseason with sub-.900 save percentages from 2010-15 playoffs and usually losing in the first or second rounds to lesser teams because of his awful play.
It makes you think he was only good because of the teams he had early on with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and other veterans they'd acquire at the trade deadlines. Fleury's postseason performances post-Cup have gotten current Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma fired from Pittsburgh. Fleury has looked like a bust since 2009 and does not look like anything worth the number one overall pick, which is why I would never use a top-3, top-5, top-10, pretty much almost any first round pick on a goalie. He was the first of four consecutive top-2 picks in the draft followed by Crosby, Malkin, and Staal.
The Penguins could have been better served with the number two overall pick, center Eric Staal, who went to Carolina and helped them win the Cup in 2006. Third went to Florida, who took winger Nathan Horton, who has had a very good career but injuries prevented what could have been an even better career. He did help Boston win the Stanley Cup in 2011 and to the finals again in 2013. He had six consecutive 20-goal seasons and had 17 and 13 after playing in 46 and 43 games in 2012 and 2013 respectively. A back injury has pretty much ended his career now. Interestingly, Florida held the number one overall pick as they won the draft lottery for the second year in a row. But for the second year in a row, they traded the pick to move down to #3. In 2002, they passed on a chance to take Rick Nash 1st overall to move down to take defenseman Jay Bouwmeester.
Nikolay Zherdev went fourth with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He had a couple of productive 27 and 26 goal seasons with Columbus before being traded to the New York Rangers in 2008. He had 23 goals and 58 points with the Rangers before leaving to go to the KHL in a messy contract dispute. He since bounced around between teams in the KHL and one year in Philadelphia and has since become somewhat of a bust.
Buffalo took Thomas Vanek fifth overall in what was a great pick and never had fewer than 20 goals in any season in the NHL. Twice he's had 40 goal seasons along two other 30+ goal seasons with the Sabres. His 20 goals in 2012-13 came in only 38 games as it was a lockout-shortened season and it would have projected to 43 over a full 82-game season, which would tie his career high. The Sabres drafted Vanek shortly after he led the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the 2003 NCAA National Championship and was named Frozen Four Tournament MVP in Buffalo nonetheless.
The rest of the top-10 Milan Michalek, Ryan Suter, Brayden Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, and Andrei Kostitsyn. All have been pretty good except Coburn, who started strong but has fallen off, and Kostitsyn, who had three 20+ goal seasons before injuries and going to the KHL ended his time in the NHL. Phaneuf had a 20-goal season his rookie season and was a force in his first few seasons with Calgary before he regressed both offensively and defensively and was traded to Toronto, and has never lived up to his early years.
Other great players in the first round include: Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Brent Seabrook, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Ryan Kessler, Mike Richards, and Anaheim got two players who helped them win a Cup in 2007 and have been one of the better teams in the NHL post-2004 Lockout in Ryan Getzlaf (19th overall) and Corey Perry (who went 28th overall). Tim Murray was working in Anaheim at that time under his uncle and then-Ducks' GM Bryan Murray.
The first round wasn't the only round to produce All-Star talent. The second round produced such talent as Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, and Jimmy Howard. After a couple of so-so rounds 3 and 4, which saw the Sabres take Clarke MacArthur in the 3rd round, the talent picks back up again with Western New York's own Lee Stempniak being picked in round 5. Joe Pavelski was taken in the 7th round. Defensemen Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien were taken in the 8th round (the NHL Draft is only 7 rounds long now). The ninth and final round produced current Sabre Matt Moulson and goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott (who was the next-to-last pick of the draft).
That's an amazing amount talent in one entire draft. It's tough to say whether this draft will produce anything close to that. It will be a deep draft no doubt. Will it be like 2003? Only time will tell. One thing for sure though is the top two picks this year will definitely be better than 2003. The Sabres will get their franchise guy no doubt.
Carey Price Cleans Up NHL Awards; Montreal Needs to Build a Better Team; I Would Hate to be the Canadiens
Last night Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price cleaned up the NHL Awards by winning both the Hart and Vezina Trophies, the first goalie to do that since Jose Theodore did it for the Canadiens in 2002 which is surprising. Dominik Hasek did it for us in 1997 and 1998. Price also won the Ted Lindsay Award for MVP voted on by the players of the NHL (first goalie to win the Lindsay since Hasek) and the William Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed during the regular season (189). Price clearly is the MVP of the league because he carries the Canadiens and carried them to the division title and 50 wins and 110 points.
Price has led the Canadiens to back-to-back 100 point seasons and three in a row if the lockout shortened 2012-13 season went 82 games as they had 63 points in 48 games (107 points over 82 games) and won two division titles in those three seasons. Problem has not been the regular season as Price has been a huge part of their success the past three seasons. The problem has been in the playoffs where they lost in the second round this past season to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who I thought were much better than Montreal despite finishing behind them in the standings.
I thought Tampa was the best team in the East this season because of all their young star players that they drafted at the top of the draft (along with a few select players found elsewhere in the draft). Hopefully the Sabres will emulate that success with their top draft picks, namely Jack Eichel. Ok, Montreal did lose in six games to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2014, but the Rangers, who as great if not better goalie, had much better skilled players than Montreal and beat them. The Canadiens were upset in the first round to the seventh seeded Ottawa Senators in 2013.
The problem with the Canadiens is that they lack a lot of skilled forwards that can score on a consistent basis and need a couple of top-3 draft pick forwards that can be stars (as do a lot of teams). That's what wins in the NHL, top-3 picks. Max Pacioretty is their best forward as he scored 37 goals and 67 points. Tomas Plekanec is pretty good as is Brendan Gallagher. Alex Galchenyuk has not lived up to the hype since being drafted 3rd overall three years ago. He did have his first 20-goal season of his career, but has been moved from center to wing as he has not yet shown he can be a center. Their other source of offense comes from P.K. Subban, who scored 60 points and is usually up there with Erik Karlsson for most points scored by a defenseman.
Despite allowing the fewest goals (thanks to Price and Subban), the Canadiens were only 18th in goals scored and even worse, they were just 23rd in Corsi. You don't win Stanley Cups with that bad of a Corsi rating as teams that win the Cup rank near or at the top. They don't have enough skilled players to have a great Corsi nor maybe they're coach isn't good at it or maybe they rely way too much on Price and Subban. I think the answer is all of the above. Another reason I thought the Canadiens weren't that great of a team was because they struggled to beat bad teams, namely the Buffalo Sabres. The 30th place Sabres went 3-0-1 against them this season. That's awful.
The Canadiens really need to build a better team in front of Price. Sadly, they are in no position to be able to tank and finish near or at the bottom of the league and get high picks as they are usually very good in the regular season. Problem is they won't ever win the Cup nor contend for it in their current model. Yes they'll have 100-point seasons. Yes they'll have division titles. Yes they'll even win a playoff series or even get to a conference finals on the strength of Price. But they'll never win the Cup or even seriously contend in this form.
This is why I would hate to be the Canadiens right now because they're in no man's land. Boston, Philadelphia, and New Jersey are probably worse off than Montreal because Montreal will have great regular seasons. But the Canadiens are nowhere close to getting elite level forwards that you need to win the Cup or contend on a regular basis. They have the elite goalie and elite defenseman to win the Cup but not the forwards which is what you need to win the Cup as Cup winners have several top-3 picks in the draft.
Montreal is probably never going to tank or bottom out anytime soon and will continue to rely on Price to win them and bail them out of games. They'll have their great regular seasons but nothing to show for it. This reminds me of the Sabres teams from a few years ago with Ryan Miller where they won the division and made the playoffs but lost in the first round because they didn't have elite forwards. That's something I never want to be in ever again where we build around a goalie and can't win without that guy in net. I don't ever want that nor do I wish that on my enemies.
Thankfully, the Sabres won't have to rely on elite goalies as their best player is not a goalie. Yes we need a goalie but I want the elite level forwards and find the goalie instead of the other way around. One team that knows from experience how that never works is the Buffalo Sabres.
Price has led the Canadiens to back-to-back 100 point seasons and three in a row if the lockout shortened 2012-13 season went 82 games as they had 63 points in 48 games (107 points over 82 games) and won two division titles in those three seasons. Problem has not been the regular season as Price has been a huge part of their success the past three seasons. The problem has been in the playoffs where they lost in the second round this past season to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who I thought were much better than Montreal despite finishing behind them in the standings.
I thought Tampa was the best team in the East this season because of all their young star players that they drafted at the top of the draft (along with a few select players found elsewhere in the draft). Hopefully the Sabres will emulate that success with their top draft picks, namely Jack Eichel. Ok, Montreal did lose in six games to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2014, but the Rangers, who as great if not better goalie, had much better skilled players than Montreal and beat them. The Canadiens were upset in the first round to the seventh seeded Ottawa Senators in 2013.
The problem with the Canadiens is that they lack a lot of skilled forwards that can score on a consistent basis and need a couple of top-3 draft pick forwards that can be stars (as do a lot of teams). That's what wins in the NHL, top-3 picks. Max Pacioretty is their best forward as he scored 37 goals and 67 points. Tomas Plekanec is pretty good as is Brendan Gallagher. Alex Galchenyuk has not lived up to the hype since being drafted 3rd overall three years ago. He did have his first 20-goal season of his career, but has been moved from center to wing as he has not yet shown he can be a center. Their other source of offense comes from P.K. Subban, who scored 60 points and is usually up there with Erik Karlsson for most points scored by a defenseman.
Despite allowing the fewest goals (thanks to Price and Subban), the Canadiens were only 18th in goals scored and even worse, they were just 23rd in Corsi. You don't win Stanley Cups with that bad of a Corsi rating as teams that win the Cup rank near or at the top. They don't have enough skilled players to have a great Corsi nor maybe they're coach isn't good at it or maybe they rely way too much on Price and Subban. I think the answer is all of the above. Another reason I thought the Canadiens weren't that great of a team was because they struggled to beat bad teams, namely the Buffalo Sabres. The 30th place Sabres went 3-0-1 against them this season. That's awful.
The Canadiens really need to build a better team in front of Price. Sadly, they are in no position to be able to tank and finish near or at the bottom of the league and get high picks as they are usually very good in the regular season. Problem is they won't ever win the Cup nor contend for it in their current model. Yes they'll have 100-point seasons. Yes they'll have division titles. Yes they'll even win a playoff series or even get to a conference finals on the strength of Price. But they'll never win the Cup or even seriously contend in this form.
This is why I would hate to be the Canadiens right now because they're in no man's land. Boston, Philadelphia, and New Jersey are probably worse off than Montreal because Montreal will have great regular seasons. But the Canadiens are nowhere close to getting elite level forwards that you need to win the Cup or contend on a regular basis. They have the elite goalie and elite defenseman to win the Cup but not the forwards which is what you need to win the Cup as Cup winners have several top-3 picks in the draft.
Montreal is probably never going to tank or bottom out anytime soon and will continue to rely on Price to win them and bail them out of games. They'll have their great regular seasons but nothing to show for it. This reminds me of the Sabres teams from a few years ago with Ryan Miller where they won the division and made the playoffs but lost in the first round because they didn't have elite forwards. That's something I never want to be in ever again where we build around a goalie and can't win without that guy in net. I don't ever want that nor do I wish that on my enemies.
Thankfully, the Sabres won't have to rely on elite goalies as their best player is not a goalie. Yes we need a goalie but I want the elite level forwards and find the goalie instead of the other way around. One team that knows from experience how that never works is the Buffalo Sabres.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
I Would Trade Reinhart for O'Reilly; I Don't Need to Trade Reinhart but He's not Untouchable
Ryan O'Reilly is about out of Colorado and it would be great if the Sabres got him. He is a top-6 forward who could play either center on the wing. He is a two-way player who can score but play defense and shut down opponent's top lines. O'Reilly has one year left on his deal and it appears he'll be too rich for Colorado to sign.
The Avalanche have already given some of their high draft picks contract extensions in recent seasons (Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog) and the top pick of the 2013 NHL Draft Nathan MacKinnon's entry level deal is up after next season. They'll need to save some room for that. They already let Paul Stastny go in free agency last season and will likely let O'Reilly go, but not before his contract is up.
The asking price might be high to get O'Reilly out of Colorado. I don't think any team (including the Sabres) will trade for him unless they agree to a contract extension with O'Reilly first. It could mean at least this year's 21st overall pick and maybe next year's first along with prospects such as a defenseman and a forward. I know some have their heart set on giving up Jake McCabe but they'd want a top-3 either Zadorov or Pysyk. Obviously they'd want Ristolainen but he's untouchable. He's the only untouchable player on this team except Jack Eichel.
I bet many want the Sabres to deal Grigerenko even though he's an RFA because Patrick Roy was his junior coach. Do they want someone who is considered scrap? I bet they'd want someone like JT Compher, Hudson Fasching, and Justin Bailey. They might however want Sam Reinhart. Would you be ok and comfortable to trade Reinhart?
I definitely don't need Reinhart traded. I'd love to see how he'd do here in Buffalo. However, he's not untradable either. I'd definitely believe he'll be a very good player because he was drafted 2nd overall and players drafted at the top of the draft are usually good. I trust in the system. He may or may not be a star however. He'll definitely generate interest in a trade that's for sure.
There's a chance Reinhart can be better than O'Reilly but it's possible he'd end up just as good. That being 20-30 goals, 55-65 points, and being a very good two-way center either 2nd or even 3rd line of Girgensons is the 2nd line center. Of course if he's going to be as good as O'Reilly maybe just make the trade then for O'Reilly.
We kind of forget about Reinhart with the addition of Jack Eichel and we'll be good with or without Reinhart. Make no mistake I'm not advocating for him to be gone lthat's not what I'm saying. I'm saying if a trade makes this team better than explore that option and don't be afraid of him possibly being a star elsewhere. Tim Murray definitely does not worry about what anyone does elsewhere unlike Darcy Regier because he only cares about how this team does. If the other player turns out great than that's super. It's actually good to have deals help out other teams or else they won't want to deal with you.
O'Reilly's career high in goals and points are 28 and 64 in 2013-14. He also led the NHL in takeaways that season as well. He's great defensively and is a very good possession player. He also usually leads his team in ice time as well. It's amazing how great of a two-way possession player he is on one of the worst possession teams in hockey and one of the analytically challenged organizations in the NHL.
Does it scare you to possibly trade Reinhart, Zadorov, or Pysyk? It should but hockey trades for good players needs to include good players and players you aren't comfortable to part ways with. Even the Evander Kane deal might have had its share of detractors whether you hate trading Joel Armia or Brendan Lemieux or maybe even Tyler Myers if you were one of the ones who still had hope in him.
I remember people used to say "let's trade Ryan Miller for Patrick Kane or Ryan Getzlaf or Cory Parry" and I'd be like who else you want to give up because Miller alone won't do it. You'd have to trade Myers when he was at his best just to get the conversation started. Unlike video games, you can't trade your garbage you don't want for someone great, it doesn't work that way. You need to trade someone you don't necessarily want to part ways with. I'm just warning all you that it might include Reinhart or Zadorov.
But if you want to win now and improve the roster, you have to make tough decisions and Tim Murray is the man to make them. He won't always be right just a heads up but I think he'll be more right than wrong.
The Avalanche have already given some of their high draft picks contract extensions in recent seasons (Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog) and the top pick of the 2013 NHL Draft Nathan MacKinnon's entry level deal is up after next season. They'll need to save some room for that. They already let Paul Stastny go in free agency last season and will likely let O'Reilly go, but not before his contract is up.
The asking price might be high to get O'Reilly out of Colorado. I don't think any team (including the Sabres) will trade for him unless they agree to a contract extension with O'Reilly first. It could mean at least this year's 21st overall pick and maybe next year's first along with prospects such as a defenseman and a forward. I know some have their heart set on giving up Jake McCabe but they'd want a top-3 either Zadorov or Pysyk. Obviously they'd want Ristolainen but he's untouchable. He's the only untouchable player on this team except Jack Eichel.
I bet many want the Sabres to deal Grigerenko even though he's an RFA because Patrick Roy was his junior coach. Do they want someone who is considered scrap? I bet they'd want someone like JT Compher, Hudson Fasching, and Justin Bailey. They might however want Sam Reinhart. Would you be ok and comfortable to trade Reinhart?
I definitely don't need Reinhart traded. I'd love to see how he'd do here in Buffalo. However, he's not untradable either. I'd definitely believe he'll be a very good player because he was drafted 2nd overall and players drafted at the top of the draft are usually good. I trust in the system. He may or may not be a star however. He'll definitely generate interest in a trade that's for sure.
There's a chance Reinhart can be better than O'Reilly but it's possible he'd end up just as good. That being 20-30 goals, 55-65 points, and being a very good two-way center either 2nd or even 3rd line of Girgensons is the 2nd line center. Of course if he's going to be as good as O'Reilly maybe just make the trade then for O'Reilly.
We kind of forget about Reinhart with the addition of Jack Eichel and we'll be good with or without Reinhart. Make no mistake I'm not advocating for him to be gone lthat's not what I'm saying. I'm saying if a trade makes this team better than explore that option and don't be afraid of him possibly being a star elsewhere. Tim Murray definitely does not worry about what anyone does elsewhere unlike Darcy Regier because he only cares about how this team does. If the other player turns out great than that's super. It's actually good to have deals help out other teams or else they won't want to deal with you.
O'Reilly's career high in goals and points are 28 and 64 in 2013-14. He also led the NHL in takeaways that season as well. He's great defensively and is a very good possession player. He also usually leads his team in ice time as well. It's amazing how great of a two-way possession player he is on one of the worst possession teams in hockey and one of the analytically challenged organizations in the NHL.
Does it scare you to possibly trade Reinhart, Zadorov, or Pysyk? It should but hockey trades for good players needs to include good players and players you aren't comfortable to part ways with. Even the Evander Kane deal might have had its share of detractors whether you hate trading Joel Armia or Brendan Lemieux or maybe even Tyler Myers if you were one of the ones who still had hope in him.
I remember people used to say "let's trade Ryan Miller for Patrick Kane or Ryan Getzlaf or Cory Parry" and I'd be like who else you want to give up because Miller alone won't do it. You'd have to trade Myers when he was at his best just to get the conversation started. Unlike video games, you can't trade your garbage you don't want for someone great, it doesn't work that way. You need to trade someone you don't necessarily want to part ways with. I'm just warning all you that it might include Reinhart or Zadorov.
But if you want to win now and improve the roster, you have to make tough decisions and Tim Murray is the man to make them. He won't always be right just a heads up but I think he'll be more right than wrong.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Dan Bylsma New Head Coach of the Buffalo Sabres!!! Yea he's Got Only One Cup Who Cares!? He has More than the Sabres and As Many as Babcock
It's been over a week since Mike Babcock spurned the Buffalo Sabres to take the Toronto Maple Leafs job. But it's no worry as the Sabres have officially hired Dan Bylsma as their next head coach. This continues to show that the Sabres are on the up-and-up considering they will be drafting Jack Eichel next month.
They finished second in the race for the best head coach but they also finished first in the race for the second best head coach available and it's not like it's a slam dunk that Babcock is that much better. He chose Toronto fine I get that. Good luck with that. But Dan Bylsma will be here to work with Eichel and the best group of prospects in the NHL. Bylsma works with USA Hockey and he'll have what should be the best player America has to offer in another couple of more years. I love the USA Hockey connection. It's not the reason I want him here because I think he's a good coach but the USA connection just makes it all the more sweeter.
People only think Bylsma won because he had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. He's never had less than 101 points in an entire 82-game season. He had 72 points in the 48-game lockout-shortened season which projects to 123 points over a full 82-game schedule. Even when Bylsma first took over in Pittsburgh, he coached only 25 games but went an impressive 18-4-3 and 40 points and that projects to a whopping 131 over 82 games. Bylsma never finished lower than second in the division and the Penguins were never lower than 4th in the Eastern Conference.
As for Bylsma only won because he had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, he had two 100-point seasons despite Crosby missing a total of 101 games over two seasons between 2010-11 to 2011-12 because of concussions and other injuries. The 2010-11 season saw Crosby and Malkin missing the entire second half of the season (and playoffs) due to injuries and their other top center Jordan Staal was out for the first half of the season. The result, the Penguins had 106 points without their two best players. Travis Yost of TSN broke down how good Bylsma and the Penguins were in scoring and puck possession without Crosby and Malkin (http://www.tsn.ca/bylsma-can-stand-on-his-track-record-1.293813).
Thanks to GM Ray Shero, Bylsma wasn't able to build on his Stanley Cup success as he didn't really get a lot more better pieces in addition to Crosby and Malkin. The bottom six forwards were one of the worst in the league. The defense, outside of Kris Letang (who I'm a huge fan of), have been brutal. They're prospects were lousy and Shero traded a lot of draft picks and prospects to trade for rent-a-players at the trade deadline because they were contending for the cup and those players usually left in free agency, leaving the pens with not much to work with.
To be fair, the Penguins would be drafting at the bottom of round 1 because of their regular season success and generally weren't in very good position to draft a star. In 2008, the Pens did not even have a draft pick until the 4th round because of all the deadline deals to try and win the Cup. But a GM's job is still get good decent players and find them anywhere in the draft. Even the draft picks and prospects they've picked have been brutal. Shero's best forward since his first draft of Jordan Staal was none other than Beau Bennett (look up his numbers I dare you). Shero never gave Bylsma a good goalie whatsoever (more on the goaltending point later). Even his signings and re-signings (Brooks Orpik) have been failures.
Cap casualties include both Staal and James Neal. Bylsma has gotten the most out of Neal (who had 40 goals, 81 points one year) and Neal has not matched his production outside of his time playing for Bylsma. He never had less than 21 goals and was a point a game player in each of his full seasons under Bylsma, even though he is a total douche and dirty rotten scummy player. He scored goals, but his overall point totals never came close to when he played in Pittsburgh (although I think Crosby and Malkin had a lot to do with that).
Chris Kunitz has had his best years under Bylsma and struggled this year under Mike Johnston. The Penguins struggled as a whole this year under Johnston, barely making the playoffs on the last day of the season. Heck, Bylsma even got offensive production (including 19 goals one year) out of the scum of the earth Matt Cooke (Neal is close to Cooke for scum of the earth as well).
The goaltending has been a nightmare for the Pens and Bylsma. Marc-Andre Fleury was brutal, absolutely abysmal since they won the Cup in 2009 and he wasn't even great then as his save % was only .908 (which is Dominik Hasek numbers compared to other years) but he played well at times and made big saves, including the finals. Since Bylsma's first year, Fleury's save % in the playoffs were: .891, .899, .834 (a 5-year-old could do better than that), .883, and .915 (which isn't even that good). Fleury never had a save % of at least .920 in any of Bylsma's regular seasons as head coach.
I don't care what coach you are or have the greatest player of this generation, no one can win in the playoffs with those dreadful goaltending performances. I know many think that Bylsma should have pulled Fleury many times but there are two problems with that thinking. 1.) Crosby apparently was close with Fleury and demanded that Fleury play so Bylsma probably did not want to tick off the star player. 2.) For several years, the backup to Fleury was Brent Johnson, who was awful as his .904 career save % indicates. He was .901 in three years in Pittsburgh, including .883 his last year there. No matter how awful Fleury was, Johnson was a lot worse if you can believe that. Bylsma had no other choice.
Shero did not provide adequate goaltending at all for the Penguins. Finally they brought in Tomas Vokoun in 2013 and they replaced Fleury with Vokoun after Fleury was awful in the first round against the New York Islanders. Vokoun then led the Penguins to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they were swept by the Boston Bruins. Vokoun eventually retired due to blood clots and the job was given back to Fleury, who signed an extension this past year. It's great when teams and people don't learn from their mistakes. Give the Sabres anything better than Fleury and they're a good team.
Bylsma has as many Cups as Mike Babcock and his win% in both regular season and playoffs are nearly identical. Babcock has only one Stanley Cup and he's coached at least three Hall of Famers. I know many think the Penguins underachieved in the playoffs under Bylsma with Crosby and Malkin and their fantastic regular season records. I agree with that to an extent as they did lose to lower seeds in the first or second rounds. But a lot of great teams and coaches lose early to a lower seed every now and then.
Babcock was eliminated in the first round in his first season in Detroit in the 2005-06 playoffs. They won the President's Trophy with the best record in the league and were eliminated by the 8th seeded Edmonton Oilers in the first round and yet you never hear of anyone saying he or his team underachieved. No one ever mentions that. Babcock went to the finals three times to just one by Byslma, but he's also coached at least five years longer in the NHL as well.
The Pens did lose in the first or second round four times to lower-seeded teams, but three of those were the fifth seed so they weren't so much worse than the Penguins. The only really bad lose was in 2010 when they lost to the 8th-seeded Montreal Canadiens in seven games. They blew a 3-1 series lead to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round in 2011. They lost in six games to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012 in a series where the Pens looked awful taking a ton of dumb and dirty penalties and Fleury played the worst I ever saw a goalie play (and that even included Iyla Bryzgalov on the other side) with his .834 save %.
As for losing to lower seeds, when you don't win the Cup, which only one team can, you lose in the playoffs. And when you are a top seed and you lose in the playoffs, you generally lose to a lower-seeded team that's how it works. When you are a top seed and have 100 point seasons and have two of the best players in the league, expectations are really high. I commend the Penguins for having high aspirations and goals of winning championships and anything else isn't acceptable.
However, I do like realistic goals and when you're goalie plays like he shouldn't even be in a pee wee league you won't win much. It's hard to win the Cup and win in the playoffs. It's really hard. It's hard just to win a playoff series where you need to win four times where luck and bounces can go for or against you. Also, you can run into a hot goalie that can beat you anytime. I'm not making excuses for Bylsma at all, I am just stating the facts.
Then in 2014, the Pens blew a 3-1 series lead to the New York Rangers in the second round as the Rangers went to the finals and lost to Los Angeles. I get the underachieving point and even their first round wins over the Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets in 2013 and 2014 looked bad. They should have lost to either team if their respective goaltending wasn't awful. Like I said however, only two teams won two Cups since 2002 as it's hard to win the Cup and even harder in this salary cap era where parity rules.
Bruce Boudreau was fired in Washington for nearly the same thing as Bylsma, but Boudreau did not even get out of the second round while losing game 7 each year on home ice in either the first or second round to a lower seeded team. He had talented players and won the division every year in Washington and were a top-3 seed every year but could not for whatever reason win in the playoffs. It was similar in Pittsburgh with a weak defense and goalie and a weaker bottom-six forward group. A good team hired him as Anaheim quickly picked him up after he was fired after they fired a goof in Randy Carlyle. Boudreau has won the division every year he's been in Anaheim and they are one game away from going to the finals.
See, really good coaches get fired and Boudreau is very good. I am a fan of him and his unorthodox methods and personality. Bylsma is a complete 180 from Boudreau but still very good in his own right. Joel Quenneville and Alain Vigneault, the other two coaches in the conference finals, were both fired twice each by their teams before having success with the Blackhawks and Rangers. Good to great coaches get fired and land on their feet in better organizations. Lindy Ruff was even fired here after 16 years and seems to be in a better situation in Dallas.
I like how Bylsma wants his team to carry the puck out of his own end as quick as possible as that's the game nowadays. He's very good with analytics and puck possession. Dan Bylsma's hiring is just another reason to get excited about the Buffalo Sabres in 2015-16 and beyond of course there's some Eichel-guy playing here next year to get your hopes up a little bit. Take the Bills hiring Rex Ryan in addition to Bylsma and things are looking great for our Buffalo sports teams. Once again, we must thank Terry and Kim Pegula for all things being possible.
They finished second in the race for the best head coach but they also finished first in the race for the second best head coach available and it's not like it's a slam dunk that Babcock is that much better. He chose Toronto fine I get that. Good luck with that. But Dan Bylsma will be here to work with Eichel and the best group of prospects in the NHL. Bylsma works with USA Hockey and he'll have what should be the best player America has to offer in another couple of more years. I love the USA Hockey connection. It's not the reason I want him here because I think he's a good coach but the USA connection just makes it all the more sweeter.
People only think Bylsma won because he had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. He's never had less than 101 points in an entire 82-game season. He had 72 points in the 48-game lockout-shortened season which projects to 123 points over a full 82-game schedule. Even when Bylsma first took over in Pittsburgh, he coached only 25 games but went an impressive 18-4-3 and 40 points and that projects to a whopping 131 over 82 games. Bylsma never finished lower than second in the division and the Penguins were never lower than 4th in the Eastern Conference.
As for Bylsma only won because he had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, he had two 100-point seasons despite Crosby missing a total of 101 games over two seasons between 2010-11 to 2011-12 because of concussions and other injuries. The 2010-11 season saw Crosby and Malkin missing the entire second half of the season (and playoffs) due to injuries and their other top center Jordan Staal was out for the first half of the season. The result, the Penguins had 106 points without their two best players. Travis Yost of TSN broke down how good Bylsma and the Penguins were in scoring and puck possession without Crosby and Malkin (http://www.tsn.ca/bylsma-can-stand-on-his-track-record-1.293813).
Thanks to GM Ray Shero, Bylsma wasn't able to build on his Stanley Cup success as he didn't really get a lot more better pieces in addition to Crosby and Malkin. The bottom six forwards were one of the worst in the league. The defense, outside of Kris Letang (who I'm a huge fan of), have been brutal. They're prospects were lousy and Shero traded a lot of draft picks and prospects to trade for rent-a-players at the trade deadline because they were contending for the cup and those players usually left in free agency, leaving the pens with not much to work with.
To be fair, the Penguins would be drafting at the bottom of round 1 because of their regular season success and generally weren't in very good position to draft a star. In 2008, the Pens did not even have a draft pick until the 4th round because of all the deadline deals to try and win the Cup. But a GM's job is still get good decent players and find them anywhere in the draft. Even the draft picks and prospects they've picked have been brutal. Shero's best forward since his first draft of Jordan Staal was none other than Beau Bennett (look up his numbers I dare you). Shero never gave Bylsma a good goalie whatsoever (more on the goaltending point later). Even his signings and re-signings (Brooks Orpik) have been failures.
Cap casualties include both Staal and James Neal. Bylsma has gotten the most out of Neal (who had 40 goals, 81 points one year) and Neal has not matched his production outside of his time playing for Bylsma. He never had less than 21 goals and was a point a game player in each of his full seasons under Bylsma, even though he is a total douche and dirty rotten scummy player. He scored goals, but his overall point totals never came close to when he played in Pittsburgh (although I think Crosby and Malkin had a lot to do with that).
Chris Kunitz has had his best years under Bylsma and struggled this year under Mike Johnston. The Penguins struggled as a whole this year under Johnston, barely making the playoffs on the last day of the season. Heck, Bylsma even got offensive production (including 19 goals one year) out of the scum of the earth Matt Cooke (Neal is close to Cooke for scum of the earth as well).
The goaltending has been a nightmare for the Pens and Bylsma. Marc-Andre Fleury was brutal, absolutely abysmal since they won the Cup in 2009 and he wasn't even great then as his save % was only .908 (which is Dominik Hasek numbers compared to other years) but he played well at times and made big saves, including the finals. Since Bylsma's first year, Fleury's save % in the playoffs were: .891, .899, .834 (a 5-year-old could do better than that), .883, and .915 (which isn't even that good). Fleury never had a save % of at least .920 in any of Bylsma's regular seasons as head coach.
I don't care what coach you are or have the greatest player of this generation, no one can win in the playoffs with those dreadful goaltending performances. I know many think that Bylsma should have pulled Fleury many times but there are two problems with that thinking. 1.) Crosby apparently was close with Fleury and demanded that Fleury play so Bylsma probably did not want to tick off the star player. 2.) For several years, the backup to Fleury was Brent Johnson, who was awful as his .904 career save % indicates. He was .901 in three years in Pittsburgh, including .883 his last year there. No matter how awful Fleury was, Johnson was a lot worse if you can believe that. Bylsma had no other choice.
Shero did not provide adequate goaltending at all for the Penguins. Finally they brought in Tomas Vokoun in 2013 and they replaced Fleury with Vokoun after Fleury was awful in the first round against the New York Islanders. Vokoun then led the Penguins to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they were swept by the Boston Bruins. Vokoun eventually retired due to blood clots and the job was given back to Fleury, who signed an extension this past year. It's great when teams and people don't learn from their mistakes. Give the Sabres anything better than Fleury and they're a good team.
Bylsma has as many Cups as Mike Babcock and his win% in both regular season and playoffs are nearly identical. Babcock has only one Stanley Cup and he's coached at least three Hall of Famers. I know many think the Penguins underachieved in the playoffs under Bylsma with Crosby and Malkin and their fantastic regular season records. I agree with that to an extent as they did lose to lower seeds in the first or second rounds. But a lot of great teams and coaches lose early to a lower seed every now and then.
Babcock was eliminated in the first round in his first season in Detroit in the 2005-06 playoffs. They won the President's Trophy with the best record in the league and were eliminated by the 8th seeded Edmonton Oilers in the first round and yet you never hear of anyone saying he or his team underachieved. No one ever mentions that. Babcock went to the finals three times to just one by Byslma, but he's also coached at least five years longer in the NHL as well.
The Pens did lose in the first or second round four times to lower-seeded teams, but three of those were the fifth seed so they weren't so much worse than the Penguins. The only really bad lose was in 2010 when they lost to the 8th-seeded Montreal Canadiens in seven games. They blew a 3-1 series lead to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round in 2011. They lost in six games to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012 in a series where the Pens looked awful taking a ton of dumb and dirty penalties and Fleury played the worst I ever saw a goalie play (and that even included Iyla Bryzgalov on the other side) with his .834 save %.
As for losing to lower seeds, when you don't win the Cup, which only one team can, you lose in the playoffs. And when you are a top seed and you lose in the playoffs, you generally lose to a lower-seeded team that's how it works. When you are a top seed and have 100 point seasons and have two of the best players in the league, expectations are really high. I commend the Penguins for having high aspirations and goals of winning championships and anything else isn't acceptable.
However, I do like realistic goals and when you're goalie plays like he shouldn't even be in a pee wee league you won't win much. It's hard to win the Cup and win in the playoffs. It's really hard. It's hard just to win a playoff series where you need to win four times where luck and bounces can go for or against you. Also, you can run into a hot goalie that can beat you anytime. I'm not making excuses for Bylsma at all, I am just stating the facts.
Then in 2014, the Pens blew a 3-1 series lead to the New York Rangers in the second round as the Rangers went to the finals and lost to Los Angeles. I get the underachieving point and even their first round wins over the Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets in 2013 and 2014 looked bad. They should have lost to either team if their respective goaltending wasn't awful. Like I said however, only two teams won two Cups since 2002 as it's hard to win the Cup and even harder in this salary cap era where parity rules.
Bruce Boudreau was fired in Washington for nearly the same thing as Bylsma, but Boudreau did not even get out of the second round while losing game 7 each year on home ice in either the first or second round to a lower seeded team. He had talented players and won the division every year in Washington and were a top-3 seed every year but could not for whatever reason win in the playoffs. It was similar in Pittsburgh with a weak defense and goalie and a weaker bottom-six forward group. A good team hired him as Anaheim quickly picked him up after he was fired after they fired a goof in Randy Carlyle. Boudreau has won the division every year he's been in Anaheim and they are one game away from going to the finals.
See, really good coaches get fired and Boudreau is very good. I am a fan of him and his unorthodox methods and personality. Bylsma is a complete 180 from Boudreau but still very good in his own right. Joel Quenneville and Alain Vigneault, the other two coaches in the conference finals, were both fired twice each by their teams before having success with the Blackhawks and Rangers. Good to great coaches get fired and land on their feet in better organizations. Lindy Ruff was even fired here after 16 years and seems to be in a better situation in Dallas.
I like how Bylsma wants his team to carry the puck out of his own end as quick as possible as that's the game nowadays. He's very good with analytics and puck possession. Dan Bylsma's hiring is just another reason to get excited about the Buffalo Sabres in 2015-16 and beyond of course there's some Eichel-guy playing here next year to get your hopes up a little bit. Take the Bills hiring Rex Ryan in addition to Bylsma and things are looking great for our Buffalo sports teams. Once again, we must thank Terry and Kim Pegula for all things being possible.
Buffalo Sabres Met with Dan Bylsma Last Night and Are Meeting With Him Again Shortly
It appears that the Buffalo Sabres are about to hire former Pittsburgh Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma as their head coach. The Sabres met with him last night and are in the process of meeting with him again. We are waiting for him to officially be hired by the Sabres. What's the hold up? The hold up is this stupid, idiotic rule that the NHL has in place which shows how the NHL is a dumb league sometimes, more like a lot of the time.
That rule is that the Sabres (or any team) would have to give up a 3rd round pick if they want to hire him. The stupid thing is that Bylsma was fired last year by the Penguins so he should be able to sign with anyone. Who has to negotiate with the team that fired a head coach? You don't need to give up compensation to sign an unrestricted free agent. This rule was designed to protect teams from allowing their AHL head coaches or top notch assistant coaches to up and leave for nothing. That I like a lot.
But there's this stupid loophole to allow a team to receive compensation despite having a head coach being fired. That's just stupid and again, the NHL looks like a joke. As long as Gary Bettman is in charge, these stupid things will continue to happen. He's a joke of a commissioner and he makes this a joke of a sports league. As for Pittsburgh, why not get your compensation you are entitled to? The Sabres are reportedly working with Pittsburgh negotiating terms of compensation.
I have zero problem with this hiring. Yeah I wanted Mike Babcock, but he wanted to go to Toronto and in this case, there is no shame in finishing a close second in the race for the best head coach. But Bylsma is no consolation prize in my opinion. If Babcock is the best, then Bylsma is a very close second. It's like trying to get Connor McDavid, but Jack Eichel is a very close second. The Sabres job is much more appealing and attractive now that we will have Eichel. Even without Eichel, the Sabres have the best group of prospects in the NHL. But Eichel makes it that much sweeter. Evander Kane makes it more appealing as well.
For those who constantly criticize or whine about how Bylsma only won one Stanley Cup with stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and how usually the Penguins underachieved in the playoffs losing in the 1st or 2nd round depsite having 100 point seasons, I will set the record straight. He did not have much else besides Crosby and Malkin. There were times where Crosby and/or Malkin were hurt and missed a bunch of a season. Regardless, Bylsma never had less than 101 points in an entire 82-game season and never finished lower than second in the division. In the lockout-shortened 48-game season, Bylsma still had 72 points which turns out to be a whopping 123 over an 82-game season.
Besides not getting anyone else besides Crosby and Malkin (Kris Letang is a very good defenseman and James Neal and Jordan Staal were also good) as well as having a very poor pool of prospects (which the Sabres don't have), the goaltending has been abysmal. Marc-Andre Fleury has had sub-.900 save percentages almost every playoff season under Byslma except one: the year they won the Cup in 09. I don't care who you are, you can't win in the playoffs with goalies with save percentages in the .800s. These are faults of the GM Ray Shero more than Bylsma. Bylsma won despite all this.
How come Babcock is considered the best coach in hockey while he only won one cup with at least 3 future hall of famers while Bylsma gets blasted for winning only one Cup with two future hall of famers? Babcock's regular season win % is .627 which is very good. Meanwhile, Bylsma's reg. season win % is an astounding .668. Babcock's postseason win % is .569 while Bylsma's is .551. So there's really not that much of a difference between the two except Babcock has been to two more Stanley Cup finals. By the way, Bylsma beat Babcock to win the Cup.
Did I mention Bylsma won the Cup his first year in the NHL? Because that's pretty important. In fact, he took over from Michel Therrien with 25 games left after the players tuned out Therrien one year after losing in the finals. Bylsma led the Pens to 40 points in those last 25 games and led them to winning the Cup. As for Bylsma winning only that one Cup, two things. 1.) how many Cups do the Sabres have (for now)? 2.) Only two teams since 2002 have won multiple Stanley Cups (Chicago and Los Angeles).
Point being, it's so hard to win the Stanley Cup and the days of winning 4-5 Cups in a decade or so are over with the salary cap era in place. Outside of Joel Quenneville and Darryl Sutter, no other coaches in the NHL right now (not even Babcock) have won more than one Stanley Cup. Quenneville and Sutter were fired at least once in their coaching careers as well so the whole Bylsma was fired thing is a joke.
The other things I love about this hire are that Bylsma coached the U.S. Olympic Hockey team and is a great puck possession coach who understands the way the game is played now. His teams were always very good in puck possession and Corsi for. He states that it's better for a player to carry the puck in through the neutral zone and into the opponent's end of the ice vs. dump and chase. I love that so much and it seems like he's not afraid to adapt to the current style of hockey of puck possession and advanced stats.
I believe it's a matter of time before Dan Bylsma will be the head coach of the Buffalo Sabres and I don't even feel like it's a consolation prize over Babcock.
That rule is that the Sabres (or any team) would have to give up a 3rd round pick if they want to hire him. The stupid thing is that Bylsma was fired last year by the Penguins so he should be able to sign with anyone. Who has to negotiate with the team that fired a head coach? You don't need to give up compensation to sign an unrestricted free agent. This rule was designed to protect teams from allowing their AHL head coaches or top notch assistant coaches to up and leave for nothing. That I like a lot.
But there's this stupid loophole to allow a team to receive compensation despite having a head coach being fired. That's just stupid and again, the NHL looks like a joke. As long as Gary Bettman is in charge, these stupid things will continue to happen. He's a joke of a commissioner and he makes this a joke of a sports league. As for Pittsburgh, why not get your compensation you are entitled to? The Sabres are reportedly working with Pittsburgh negotiating terms of compensation.
I have zero problem with this hiring. Yeah I wanted Mike Babcock, but he wanted to go to Toronto and in this case, there is no shame in finishing a close second in the race for the best head coach. But Bylsma is no consolation prize in my opinion. If Babcock is the best, then Bylsma is a very close second. It's like trying to get Connor McDavid, but Jack Eichel is a very close second. The Sabres job is much more appealing and attractive now that we will have Eichel. Even without Eichel, the Sabres have the best group of prospects in the NHL. But Eichel makes it that much sweeter. Evander Kane makes it more appealing as well.
For those who constantly criticize or whine about how Bylsma only won one Stanley Cup with stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and how usually the Penguins underachieved in the playoffs losing in the 1st or 2nd round depsite having 100 point seasons, I will set the record straight. He did not have much else besides Crosby and Malkin. There were times where Crosby and/or Malkin were hurt and missed a bunch of a season. Regardless, Bylsma never had less than 101 points in an entire 82-game season and never finished lower than second in the division. In the lockout-shortened 48-game season, Bylsma still had 72 points which turns out to be a whopping 123 over an 82-game season.
Besides not getting anyone else besides Crosby and Malkin (Kris Letang is a very good defenseman and James Neal and Jordan Staal were also good) as well as having a very poor pool of prospects (which the Sabres don't have), the goaltending has been abysmal. Marc-Andre Fleury has had sub-.900 save percentages almost every playoff season under Byslma except one: the year they won the Cup in 09. I don't care who you are, you can't win in the playoffs with goalies with save percentages in the .800s. These are faults of the GM Ray Shero more than Bylsma. Bylsma won despite all this.
How come Babcock is considered the best coach in hockey while he only won one cup with at least 3 future hall of famers while Bylsma gets blasted for winning only one Cup with two future hall of famers? Babcock's regular season win % is .627 which is very good. Meanwhile, Bylsma's reg. season win % is an astounding .668. Babcock's postseason win % is .569 while Bylsma's is .551. So there's really not that much of a difference between the two except Babcock has been to two more Stanley Cup finals. By the way, Bylsma beat Babcock to win the Cup.
Did I mention Bylsma won the Cup his first year in the NHL? Because that's pretty important. In fact, he took over from Michel Therrien with 25 games left after the players tuned out Therrien one year after losing in the finals. Bylsma led the Pens to 40 points in those last 25 games and led them to winning the Cup. As for Bylsma winning only that one Cup, two things. 1.) how many Cups do the Sabres have (for now)? 2.) Only two teams since 2002 have won multiple Stanley Cups (Chicago and Los Angeles).
Point being, it's so hard to win the Stanley Cup and the days of winning 4-5 Cups in a decade or so are over with the salary cap era in place. Outside of Joel Quenneville and Darryl Sutter, no other coaches in the NHL right now (not even Babcock) have won more than one Stanley Cup. Quenneville and Sutter were fired at least once in their coaching careers as well so the whole Bylsma was fired thing is a joke.
The other things I love about this hire are that Bylsma coached the U.S. Olympic Hockey team and is a great puck possession coach who understands the way the game is played now. His teams were always very good in puck possession and Corsi for. He states that it's better for a player to carry the puck in through the neutral zone and into the opponent's end of the ice vs. dump and chase. I love that so much and it seems like he's not afraid to adapt to the current style of hockey of puck possession and advanced stats.
I believe it's a matter of time before Dan Bylsma will be the head coach of the Buffalo Sabres and I don't even feel like it's a consolation prize over Babcock.
Monday, May 18, 2015
EJ Could Be Cut If He Doesn't Show Progress; Move on From Him If You Don't Think He's the Guy
A lot of buzz has been made by former WGR 550 Buffalo Bills beat reporter and current Bills beat reporter for WKBW Ch. 7 Joe Buscaglia about EJ Manuel's future with the Bills (http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-sans-progress-ej-may-be-done-in-buffalo). It appears that the honeymoon with the 2013 first round pick and the supposed to be franchise QB is likely over unless he shows major improvement this summer from what has been a disappointing two-year stint. Manuel was drafted to be the franchise QB that this franchise has lacked since Jim Kelly retired in 1996 and so far it has not materialized.
It has been coined a "make or break year" for EJ, who will be battling for the starting job along with newcomers Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor. This new coaching staff has no ties to EJ Manuel and if they don't think he's the guy, he's likely gone. I think that's the right move if that's the case, there's no reason to keep him around if he can't beat out Cassel and/or Taylor. I think if he's not even the starter it might just be time to move on from him, let alone be the backup. Nothing against Cassel and Taylor but they aren't the best QBs in the league and they're here for a reason and if EJ can't beat them out, he'll never be the guy.
Of course Doug Whaley drafted him, well depending on who you ask some say it's Buddy Nix's pick but Whaley doesn't shy away from picking Manuel as it was a Buffalo Bills pick. Whaley I'm sure wants him to succeed and it makes him look a lot better. Some are ridiculous stating since this report came out that EJ is behind Jeff Tuel and is the 4th QB on the depth chart and that's just absolutely bogus. If for some reason he's behind Tuel, then cut him now.
I know Manuel has only 14 starts, which is still not a full 16-game season, but he's had two seasons worth of mini camps, OTAs, training camps, and preseasons and make it three after this summer. I don't think 14 starts is enough but I feel three seasons worth of all the above mentioned practices, preseason and regular season games is enough to tell you whether the guy is good or not and if he's improving or regressing.
It's not that Manuel was awful as he was just 6-8 as a starter (6-7 in games in which he finished after being injured against Cleveland his rookie year), but he continued to regress and show inaccuracy after coming back from injury in the middle of his rookie season. He missed six games due to injury his rookie season as he suffered three separate knee injuries (one was in preseason). His career completion percentage is just 58.6 and he averages 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which is in Trent Edwards territory.
Last season, the Bills traded the 2015 first round pick to move up five spots to draft Sammy Watkins in an attempt to add a big time weapon to help EJ. They basically gave EJ two years at starting QB with the Watkins trade. Manuel was pretty good the first two games of the season as they won the first two. He completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards an attempt, both were very good. Then Manuel struggled mightily the next two games in which he lost both of them. He was really bad against Houston as his signature moment was throwing a short pass right into JJ Watt's hands, who returned it for a touchdown.
Manuel was benched after that game for a guy who was retired and did not even go to training camp or play in the preseason in Kyle Orton. Orton was not much better except for both Jets games, a half against Detroit, and the 4th quarter against Minnesota. Otherwise he was awful as the team had trouble getting into the end zone. Orton was basically the same as his yards per attempt was basically the same, but he completed 10% more of his passes, big deal considering most of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage.
It was sad that the last month or two, Doug Marrone did not bench Orton and put Manuel back in. Now some of that was Marrone being selfish and wanting to win for his own glory to take a buyout and leave after the season to try and get another head coaching job. The other was that sadly, Orton was the "best chance to win." If you couldn't pull an awful Orton for a young first round pick prospect to see what he's done being on the bench, then it doesn't speak very highly for Manuel. It was sad that Manuel was benched for Orton in the first place.
I'd like to see what Manuel can do in Greg Roman's offense. Roman got a lot out of Alex Smith when no one could. Smith is definitely limited but Roman got the most out of him. Then he got a lot out of Colin Kaepernick in terms of throwing the ball down field and especially running for a year-and-a-half until he completely struggled last year. Kaepernick was inaccurate and has always struggled with accuracy issues. But when he throws the ball down the field, he can surely fling it with ease and can make big plays down the field whereas EJ could not. Of course Kaepernick's big time strength was his running ability and can make so many plays with his legs.
I'd like to see Manuel be able to run more as that's supposed to be a strength of his. That's one of the reasons why the Bills drafted him two years ago. He's not the fastest nor most mobile but he can more than make enough plays with his legs. He got injured as a rookie against Cleveland on a spectacular run and Marrone was very cautious to have him run. I don't 100% blame him because you don't want your young QB to get hurt.
The problem was that they never wanted Manuel to run ever, which was a strength of his. When he did run, it was usually just run out of bounds or slide even if it was short of the first down marker because "a punt is better than a turnover" and did not want him to risk injury. Marrone was super conservative. It was definitely Marrone not wanting him to run but when Manuel did run, he would never try and make any sort of move to have a defender miss to pick up a couple of yards and a first down. Get the first down and then slide or run out of bounds.
Marrone and Nate Hackett brought in the Read Option with Manuel's mobility as well as the no huddle and I was super excited. For some reason, they never ran the read option with Manuel running or throwing. Instead, Manuel would just hand the ball off in shot gun to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson and getting destroyed for losses. Never did Manuel just take off running after faking a hand off or threw from the read option which is what QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, RGIII, and even Ryan Tannehill do as they both run and throw to some success. Oh yeah, they scrapped the no huddle as well as injuries and EJ's poor development led to them throwing no huddle out of the playbook.
I did not want the kid to get hurt but if he wasn't going to be play the game right or the way he is capable of playing, then I did not need him in there whatsoever. I'd love to see Rex and Roman let the kid run and try to throw down the field and try to make some plays. Ryan usually let Geno Smith throw down field and Smith would not just run out of bounds when he ran as he would make a move and get the first down. Smith was terrible but Ryan at least let him try to make plays and see if he can play the position or not. I wouldn't mind letting them let Tyrod Taylor loose as they seemed enamored with him and his play making ability.
EJ has a strong arm but he was not accurate down the field. In fact, too many times he'd throw deep passes out of bounds and never kept balls in play for a chance for the receiver to make a play and/or a draw a defensive penalty. Manuel was so inaccurate especially throwing short. He completed only 61% of his passes from 1-10 yards which is very bad. Usually great QBs even decent QBs can complete 1-10 yard passes in the 70% range.
If Manuel can't improve his accuracy the next couple of months, he won't just be on the bench he'll be in the unemployment line. Now Roman can try and improve his accuracy somewhat, but accuracy is something you can't teach and you usually are what you are. I like Manuel he seems like a great person but if he's not the guy then it's time to move on. I just want Ryan and Roman to let him at least try and make plays and if he can't then cut him loose and let's go with Cassel or Taylor.
It has been coined a "make or break year" for EJ, who will be battling for the starting job along with newcomers Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor. This new coaching staff has no ties to EJ Manuel and if they don't think he's the guy, he's likely gone. I think that's the right move if that's the case, there's no reason to keep him around if he can't beat out Cassel and/or Taylor. I think if he's not even the starter it might just be time to move on from him, let alone be the backup. Nothing against Cassel and Taylor but they aren't the best QBs in the league and they're here for a reason and if EJ can't beat them out, he'll never be the guy.
Of course Doug Whaley drafted him, well depending on who you ask some say it's Buddy Nix's pick but Whaley doesn't shy away from picking Manuel as it was a Buffalo Bills pick. Whaley I'm sure wants him to succeed and it makes him look a lot better. Some are ridiculous stating since this report came out that EJ is behind Jeff Tuel and is the 4th QB on the depth chart and that's just absolutely bogus. If for some reason he's behind Tuel, then cut him now.
I know Manuel has only 14 starts, which is still not a full 16-game season, but he's had two seasons worth of mini camps, OTAs, training camps, and preseasons and make it three after this summer. I don't think 14 starts is enough but I feel three seasons worth of all the above mentioned practices, preseason and regular season games is enough to tell you whether the guy is good or not and if he's improving or regressing.
It's not that Manuel was awful as he was just 6-8 as a starter (6-7 in games in which he finished after being injured against Cleveland his rookie year), but he continued to regress and show inaccuracy after coming back from injury in the middle of his rookie season. He missed six games due to injury his rookie season as he suffered three separate knee injuries (one was in preseason). His career completion percentage is just 58.6 and he averages 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which is in Trent Edwards territory.
Last season, the Bills traded the 2015 first round pick to move up five spots to draft Sammy Watkins in an attempt to add a big time weapon to help EJ. They basically gave EJ two years at starting QB with the Watkins trade. Manuel was pretty good the first two games of the season as they won the first two. He completed 66.7% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards an attempt, both were very good. Then Manuel struggled mightily the next two games in which he lost both of them. He was really bad against Houston as his signature moment was throwing a short pass right into JJ Watt's hands, who returned it for a touchdown.
Manuel was benched after that game for a guy who was retired and did not even go to training camp or play in the preseason in Kyle Orton. Orton was not much better except for both Jets games, a half against Detroit, and the 4th quarter against Minnesota. Otherwise he was awful as the team had trouble getting into the end zone. Orton was basically the same as his yards per attempt was basically the same, but he completed 10% more of his passes, big deal considering most of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage.
It was sad that the last month or two, Doug Marrone did not bench Orton and put Manuel back in. Now some of that was Marrone being selfish and wanting to win for his own glory to take a buyout and leave after the season to try and get another head coaching job. The other was that sadly, Orton was the "best chance to win." If you couldn't pull an awful Orton for a young first round pick prospect to see what he's done being on the bench, then it doesn't speak very highly for Manuel. It was sad that Manuel was benched for Orton in the first place.
I'd like to see what Manuel can do in Greg Roman's offense. Roman got a lot out of Alex Smith when no one could. Smith is definitely limited but Roman got the most out of him. Then he got a lot out of Colin Kaepernick in terms of throwing the ball down field and especially running for a year-and-a-half until he completely struggled last year. Kaepernick was inaccurate and has always struggled with accuracy issues. But when he throws the ball down the field, he can surely fling it with ease and can make big plays down the field whereas EJ could not. Of course Kaepernick's big time strength was his running ability and can make so many plays with his legs.
I'd like to see Manuel be able to run more as that's supposed to be a strength of his. That's one of the reasons why the Bills drafted him two years ago. He's not the fastest nor most mobile but he can more than make enough plays with his legs. He got injured as a rookie against Cleveland on a spectacular run and Marrone was very cautious to have him run. I don't 100% blame him because you don't want your young QB to get hurt.
The problem was that they never wanted Manuel to run ever, which was a strength of his. When he did run, it was usually just run out of bounds or slide even if it was short of the first down marker because "a punt is better than a turnover" and did not want him to risk injury. Marrone was super conservative. It was definitely Marrone not wanting him to run but when Manuel did run, he would never try and make any sort of move to have a defender miss to pick up a couple of yards and a first down. Get the first down and then slide or run out of bounds.
Marrone and Nate Hackett brought in the Read Option with Manuel's mobility as well as the no huddle and I was super excited. For some reason, they never ran the read option with Manuel running or throwing. Instead, Manuel would just hand the ball off in shot gun to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson and getting destroyed for losses. Never did Manuel just take off running after faking a hand off or threw from the read option which is what QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, RGIII, and even Ryan Tannehill do as they both run and throw to some success. Oh yeah, they scrapped the no huddle as well as injuries and EJ's poor development led to them throwing no huddle out of the playbook.
I did not want the kid to get hurt but if he wasn't going to be play the game right or the way he is capable of playing, then I did not need him in there whatsoever. I'd love to see Rex and Roman let the kid run and try to throw down the field and try to make some plays. Ryan usually let Geno Smith throw down field and Smith would not just run out of bounds when he ran as he would make a move and get the first down. Smith was terrible but Ryan at least let him try to make plays and see if he can play the position or not. I wouldn't mind letting them let Tyrod Taylor loose as they seemed enamored with him and his play making ability.
EJ has a strong arm but he was not accurate down the field. In fact, too many times he'd throw deep passes out of bounds and never kept balls in play for a chance for the receiver to make a play and/or a draw a defensive penalty. Manuel was so inaccurate especially throwing short. He completed only 61% of his passes from 1-10 yards which is very bad. Usually great QBs even decent QBs can complete 1-10 yard passes in the 70% range.
If Manuel can't improve his accuracy the next couple of months, he won't just be on the bench he'll be in the unemployment line. Now Roman can try and improve his accuracy somewhat, but accuracy is something you can't teach and you usually are what you are. I like Manuel he seems like a great person but if he's not the guy then it's time to move on. I just want Ryan and Roman to let him at least try and make plays and if he can't then cut him loose and let's go with Cassel or Taylor.
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