Boy I've said it many times just recently but I've also been saying it since the beginning of last season, the Philadelphia Flyers are one of the top teams I'd least like to be. Now after a season in which they finished 12th in the Eastern Conference and were 14 points out of the playoffs, the prophecy is even more true. Now word on the street is that they are facing a horrific cap situation to make matters even worse (http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25244976/flyers-face-daunting-salary-cap-situation-in-2015-16-and-beyond).
The Flyers should have really bottomed out for McEichel. They were in a terrible spot, so bad not to make the playoffs but not bad enough to finish 30th or 29th. I'm sure Philadelphia was fine not finishing last because they have too much pride like the Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils, the tough gritty northeastern teams. Boston is the team I'd least like to be because of their idiocy at the top of the organization letting go of top notch players for ridiculous reasons.
New Jersey and Philadelphia are very close and all three of these teams need to reload and retool and bottom out and need several years of high draft picks to be great again. These are long rebuilds unlike the Sabres. Of course Boston had several high draft picks gifted to them only to throw them away for nothing. Montreal, despite their regular season successes the last three years, is approaching team I least like to be status due to lack of big play scoring forwards (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/carey-price-cleans-up-nhl-awards.html).
The Flyers also made numerous dumb moves much like the Bruins have. They got rid of Jeff Carter and Mike Richards because they "partied too much", well Richards turned out to be ok to let go of because of recent events and his decline but not before winning two Stanley Cups with the Kings. Carter on the other hand was a very foolish move to get rid of him. He's been great for LA. They got good players in return for both such as Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, and Sean Couturier.
The problem isn't what they got back it's that no one else has stepped up. The bottom six forwards don't score and the defense and goaltending have been nightmares. And the flyers have spent a ton on absolutely nothing and that's what's been ruining them. Other dumb moves the Flyers have made include trading Carter and Richards to clear up cap space to sign Ilya Bryzgalov. Their goaltending wasn't great but they went to the finals in 2010 with three goalies and lost in six games to Chicago. One of those goalies ended up being Sergei Bobrovsky, who's won a Vezina and has been great for Columbus. Had they not blown it all on Bryzgalov they'd still had Bobrovsky.
After buying out Bryzgalov after two lousy years, they went back with Ray Emery and Steve Mason as neither worked out. Other foolish moves include trading former number two overall pick James van Riemsdyk to Toronto for failed defenseman Luke Schenn and signing 35 year old Vincent Lecavalier to a five year deal with a $4.5 million cap hit, 37 year old Mark Streit to a four year deal, and Andrew MacDonald to a six year $30 million deal. All these moves the Flyers have made have only given them only half a million dollars worth of cap space left.
That doesn't include the fact that Voracek is set to be an unrestricted free agent and they must do whatever to keep him and both Couturier and Brayden Schenn are set to be restricted free agents next year. That's insane some of your best young players are set to be free agents with that low amount of cap room shows just how awfully mismanaged the Flyers really are. Claude Giroux has a $8.275 million cap hit but he's obviously worth it. Simmonds has a cap hit just under $4 million and that looks like an incredible bargain.
Good news is that Sam Gagner's $3.2 million cap hit and Luke Schenn's $3.6 million cap hit both come off the books after this season and RJ Umberger's $4.6 million cap hit, Mason's $4.1 million cap hit, and Streit's ludicrous $5.2 million cap hit (when he's 39) come off the books after the 2016-17 season. Lecavalier doesn't come off the books until 2018. That's messed up considering he scored only 8 goals and 20 points in 57 games last year as it will only get better keep telling yourself. Same with newly signed defenseman Michael Del Zotto, who signed a two year deal to help the struggling blue line and carries a $3.875 million cap hit.
What's happened to the Flyers? They were the team I wanted to be back around 2008-2011 because of the moves they made. Of course I wanted to be a lot of teams not named the Sabres at that time now I'm proud what the Sabres are doing. Anyways, the Flyers had the worst record in 2006-07 with 22 wins and 56 points. The Sabres won the President's Trophy with 53 wins and 113 points and they destroyed the Flyers 9-1 early that season, which saw them fire both Ken Hitchcock and Bobby Clarke shortly after.
The Flyers made a ton of spectacular moves by acquiring Martin Biron, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, drafting JVR second overall, and then signing Daniel Briere from the Sabres along with youngsters like Richards and Carter stepping up. The changes saw the Flyers goes from 56 points to a whopping 95 and made the Eastern Conference Finals. Many thought the Flyers would not make the playoffs let alone go to the Eastern Conference Finals one year after being the worst team in the league. It shows you that turnarounds don't have to take forever as the Sabres are looking to show the NHL that same thing.
Two years later, the Flyers lost in the finals to Chicago and beat the Sabres in the first round in 2011 before they started to make puzzling moves to put them in the position they are currently in. I hope the Sabres show similar progress from last year to this year, which is not crazy to do. Let's hope however they don't make the same mistakes the Flyers did or like the Bruins by letting go of great players for stupid reasons.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
RIP Van Miller; A Celebration of Miller's Life and Famous Calls with the Bills
Sadly this past weekend, Buffalo Bills fans and Western New York lost a legend as Van Miller passed away. Miller died after complications from a stroke at his home in Tonawanda, NY and battled health problems in his final years. He was 87 years old. Miller is gone but will never be forgotten.
Miller was born in 1927 and raised in Dunkirk, NY and did play-by-play for various local sports in the Western New York area. He knew when he was 10 years old he wanted to be a play-by-play announcer. He worked at several different radio stations across Western New York until he got his first big break in 1955. He was hired at WBEN and WIVB Channel 4. Although his job at Channel 4 was supposed to be temporary, Van remained there until retiring in 1998 as the sports director.
When it was announced in 1959 that the Buffalo Bills will be playing for the then American Football League (AFL) in 1960, one of the first things general manager Richard Gallagher did was hire Van Miller to do play-by-play for the new Buffalo team after WBEN got the rights to broadcast Bills games on radio. Miller did play-by-play for some of the best teams in Bills history in their early days in the AFL as he called the 1964 and 1965 AFL Championship Games where the Bills whipped the San Diego Chargers both times, allowing one single touchdown in both games. The Bills went to a third straight AFL Championship Game in 1966, with the winner playing in the inaugural Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers. But the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, who got whipped by the Packers in Super Bowl I.
Miller was with the Bills through 1971 when the Bills' radio rights was switched over WBEN's rival WKBW and Miller did not broadcast Bills games for seven years. During Van's seven-year absence as Bills play-by-play, he called games for the then-Buffalo NBA team the Buffalo Braves. Van also called games for Niagara University Basketball and was a part of some of the best moments in NU Purple Eagles history, especially the Calvin Murphy era. Van called Murphy's 68-point game against Syracuse and their run to the NCAA Tournament in 1970, where they upset Pennsylvania University in the first round. He also called games for the Buffalo Stallions Soccer team as well as the University at Buffalo Football team.
He returned as the Bills play-by-play man when WBEN got the games back in 1978 and remained their play-by-play man through the 2003 season. Unfortunately he missed some of O.J. Simpson's best seasons (including his 2000-yard season in 1973), but he was a part of the Bills greatest success from 1988-1993, when they played in four straight Super Bowls from 1990-93 and won five AFC East Division Championships in those six years. Maybe Van's best calls were in the Greatest Comeback Game over the Houston Oilers where they were down 35-3 and won 41-38 in January 1993.
Miller called some of the best players in this era: Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, Darryl Talley, Cornelius Bennett, Steve Tasker, and many more. Even though the rest of the 1990s did not produce any more Super Bowl appearances, they were still a very good team. In the entire decade of the 1990s, the Bills won 103 games (averaging over 10 wins a season) and made the playoffs eight times in those 10 years with four division titles and four Super Bowl appearances. No word was better used by Miller than "Fandemonium." Talley says he's the one who came up with that while Miller disputes that. Regardless, Miller made the term famous.
Miller has been inducted into six hall of fames, but none greater than the one he made shortly after his retirement in 2004. That year, the Pro Football Hall of Fame honored Van with the Pete Rozelle Award as he became the first local broadcaster to win that prestigious award. What was supposed to be a two-minute speech became a seven-minute speech/stand up comedy routine. I'm sure few if any cared that he went beyond his allotted time.
Miller was inducted into the Buffalo Bills Wall of Fame last October.
Here's a look back at some of Van's finest moments:
1964 AFL Championship
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP0a781vZuE
1990 AFC Championship 51-3 beatdown over the Los Angeles Raiders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNlozIBMnro
1988 AFC East Championship clinching win over the Jets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot4raqK0oJI
Ending the 20-game losing streak against the Dolphins 1980
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPFP8bt4Tyo
Jim Kelly's Game-winning TD run against Miami 1989
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok0fczZw9gE
Of course the greatest Comeback in NFL history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSgfGKhYKu8
RIP Van Miller, you will be greatly missed.
Miller was born in 1927 and raised in Dunkirk, NY and did play-by-play for various local sports in the Western New York area. He knew when he was 10 years old he wanted to be a play-by-play announcer. He worked at several different radio stations across Western New York until he got his first big break in 1955. He was hired at WBEN and WIVB Channel 4. Although his job at Channel 4 was supposed to be temporary, Van remained there until retiring in 1998 as the sports director.
When it was announced in 1959 that the Buffalo Bills will be playing for the then American Football League (AFL) in 1960, one of the first things general manager Richard Gallagher did was hire Van Miller to do play-by-play for the new Buffalo team after WBEN got the rights to broadcast Bills games on radio. Miller did play-by-play for some of the best teams in Bills history in their early days in the AFL as he called the 1964 and 1965 AFL Championship Games where the Bills whipped the San Diego Chargers both times, allowing one single touchdown in both games. The Bills went to a third straight AFL Championship Game in 1966, with the winner playing in the inaugural Super Bowl against the Green Bay Packers. But the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, who got whipped by the Packers in Super Bowl I.
Miller was with the Bills through 1971 when the Bills' radio rights was switched over WBEN's rival WKBW and Miller did not broadcast Bills games for seven years. During Van's seven-year absence as Bills play-by-play, he called games for the then-Buffalo NBA team the Buffalo Braves. Van also called games for Niagara University Basketball and was a part of some of the best moments in NU Purple Eagles history, especially the Calvin Murphy era. Van called Murphy's 68-point game against Syracuse and their run to the NCAA Tournament in 1970, where they upset Pennsylvania University in the first round. He also called games for the Buffalo Stallions Soccer team as well as the University at Buffalo Football team.
He returned as the Bills play-by-play man when WBEN got the games back in 1978 and remained their play-by-play man through the 2003 season. Unfortunately he missed some of O.J. Simpson's best seasons (including his 2000-yard season in 1973), but he was a part of the Bills greatest success from 1988-1993, when they played in four straight Super Bowls from 1990-93 and won five AFC East Division Championships in those six years. Maybe Van's best calls were in the Greatest Comeback Game over the Houston Oilers where they were down 35-3 and won 41-38 in January 1993.
Miller called some of the best players in this era: Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, Darryl Talley, Cornelius Bennett, Steve Tasker, and many more. Even though the rest of the 1990s did not produce any more Super Bowl appearances, they were still a very good team. In the entire decade of the 1990s, the Bills won 103 games (averaging over 10 wins a season) and made the playoffs eight times in those 10 years with four division titles and four Super Bowl appearances. No word was better used by Miller than "Fandemonium." Talley says he's the one who came up with that while Miller disputes that. Regardless, Miller made the term famous.
Miller has been inducted into six hall of fames, but none greater than the one he made shortly after his retirement in 2004. That year, the Pro Football Hall of Fame honored Van with the Pete Rozelle Award as he became the first local broadcaster to win that prestigious award. What was supposed to be a two-minute speech became a seven-minute speech/stand up comedy routine. I'm sure few if any cared that he went beyond his allotted time.
Miller was inducted into the Buffalo Bills Wall of Fame last October.
Here's a look back at some of Van's finest moments:
1964 AFL Championship
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP0a781vZuE
1990 AFC Championship 51-3 beatdown over the Los Angeles Raiders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNlozIBMnro
1988 AFC East Championship clinching win over the Jets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot4raqK0oJI
Ending the 20-game losing streak against the Dolphins 1980
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPFP8bt4Tyo
Jim Kelly's Game-winning TD run against Miami 1989
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok0fczZw9gE
Of course the greatest Comeback in NFL history
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSgfGKhYKu8
RIP Van Miller, you will be greatly missed.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
EJ Struggled Because of Marrone?! Sure A Little Bit But He Also Struggled on Other Downs as Well
I saw Howard Simon of WGR tweet this link out about how Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett as rookie head coach and offensive coordinator derailed E.J. Manuel's rookie season and beyond (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/how-a-rookie-head-coach-derailed-a-rookie-quarterback-then-vanished-with-4-million-071515). First off, it's a very long and wordy article. Second, it makes some sense but it gives too much if not almost all the blame squarely on the coaches.
The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.
Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.
The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.
I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:
"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone. Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts. Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.
I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.
Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.
Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.
The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.
If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.
I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.
Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.
I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.
I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.
I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.
The conclusion of this article is that Marrone called pass plays on 45% on first down in his first three starts of his career and went back down to 20% in the next two starts before Manuel got hurt in the Cleveland game. The trend continued downward the rest of his rookie season and in the first four games of the 2014 season, before he got benched for Kyle Orton. Manuel apparently had a 98 QB Rating on 1st and 10 in the first three games.
Marrone called pass plays 56% of the time when the game was within one score in the first three games, then ran the ball more than 70% of the time in a one score game the rest of his rookie year. Manuel apparently had an 87 QB Rating, 6.4 yards per attempt, four touchowns, and just one interception in his first three starts.
The QB Rating is the fourth best in NFL history for a rookie QB who started the first three games of his career with some guy named Jim Kelly one of those ahead of him. It doesn't mean much because RGIII and Mark Sanchez were the other two ahead of EJ and look how well they've done. Three starts doesn't make a career and how many guys have had a few good starts early on and do nothing? Very many.
I guess the premise was that Marrone called pass plays and might have made more manageable third downs instead of running on first all the time and going into third and long. I don't disagree with that i agree pass on first down and pass all the time. But if it's 3rd and 7 or longer, make the throw EJ!! It's that simple, well easier said then done. An excerpt of the article goes as follows:
"Following the 4th quarter loss to the Jets in week 3, something changed with Doug Marrone. Despite EJ Manuel overachieving as a rookie in his first 3 starts, Marrone began to call the game differently in his starts. Marrone stopped letting EJ Manuel pass like an average quarterback and started calling passing plays much less frequently, particularly in early downs.
In his press conferences after the game vs the Jets in week 3, Marrone insisted the trouble with the Bills was 3rd down performance. He wasn't wrong -- the Bills were terrible on 3rd down. But they were primarily terrible on 3rd and 7+ yds, where they converted just 6% into 1st downs so far that season. On 3rd and 1-6 yds, the Bills converted 50% into 3rd down in 2013 to date, which was essentially the NFL average. The key for the Bills was to keep 3rd down manageable. Therefore, they needed to produce on 1st down. So what happened on first downs for the Bills in 2013?"
I love how the writer neglects to inform all of you that EJ was awful for most of that Jets game, throwing passes way out of bounds and not letting any of his receivers a chance to make any sort of play. That was conveniently left out of the article. Did this guy watch that Jets game? There might be a reason as to why Marrone stopped throwing and it was EJ was regressing. He also made it a point to say he struggled on third down passing as well in that game.
Even in the first two games, EJ didn't set the world on fire. He only had 150 yards passing and only 5.6 yards per attempt, but he did throw two very nice touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once and had a 105.5 QB Rating in his NFL debut in the season-opener against New England. He even had them leading before Tom Brady did what Tom Brady does, lead the Patriots to a comeback win. EJ had a nice come-from-behind victory against Carolina the following week where he led them on a 8-yard TD drive, capped by a TD pass to Stevie Johnson and threw for a career-high 296 yards. But the reason they were behind was because of Manuel, who threw an interception and fumbled in the fourth quarter and even threw a pick on the final drive that was wiped out by a penalty.
Then came the Jets game debacle, but to his credit, Manuel led them from a 20-6 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late at 20-20. The Jets won a huge Geno Smith TD pass to win the game as Justin Rogers got shredded in that game as well. Manuel only completed 45% of his passes in that game, most of which went out of bounds. Even his running went down not only after his injury but even the next two weeks before his injury. He was averaging nearly 6 yards a carry the first three games to averaging less than half that the rest of the season. He didn't run particularly well but the coaches also did not let him run too.
The next week against the then-defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens, the Bills ran 2.5 times more than they threw as EJ only attempted 22 passes, yet only completed 10 of them. They ran more because EJ was not good and they ran for over 200 yards as well. Manuel threw one touchdown and threw two interceptions in the second half and fumbled twice as well, almost costing the Bills the game as they held on to win 23-20 thanks to five Joe Flacco's five interceptions. Manuel got hurt the next week against Cleveland, costing him the next four games. The play he got hurt was a beautiful run.
If anything, it seemed as if Marrone and Hackett trusted Manuel before he showed them not to trust him. While Manuel according to his report looked good on first down, he wasn't very good on the downs 2-4, which matter just as much as first down. The writer doesn't take into account the rest of the downs in a game, where EJ was not good. Seems like this piece was written by a Manuel cheerleader.
I'm in no way shape or form not saying Marrone had nothing to do with it. I'll say it's 25% Marrone's fault. Now EJ was widely inaccurate even in throws 1-10 yards and it got worse the more he threw deep. That's EJ's fault he can't hit wide open receivers, often throwing behind them or even throwing them up too high where receivers had to jump up to grab a four-yard pass and risking injury. Or in the first Jets game his rookie year he kept throwing deep passes horribly out of bounds.
Where is it 25% Marrone? He kept having EJ throw the passes he wasn't good at. That Jets game for example, when Manuel kept throwing sideline passes deep out of bounds he should have not kept calling those throws continuously. He also had Manuel throw the fade patterns to the sidelines, which are very low percentage even for some of the very best and even worse for an inaccurate QB, as well as the sideline or even corner of the end zone. Marrone called those plays so many times it made my head explode. So the constant calling the same failing calls were on Marrone.
I'll give Hackett 1% because he needs a little blame but not much. The rest of the 75% is all on EJ and is inaccuracy. His completion percentage is 58.5% and the fact he doesn't even complete 60% of his passes from 1-10 yards is staggering. That should be one of your highest percentages and the best QBs complete in the upper 60s to 70s. The numbers might suggest that Manuel struggled because of Marrone not throwing on first down more, he struggled because simply he might not be a good QB. As I've said before, Manuel struggled on every other down and what is the most important down? Every down.
I agree with the fact the Bills took Manuel because they needed a QB after passing on guys in 2011 and 2012 such as Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and of course Russell Wilson. They waited for a not so good QB draft in 2013. That year I didn't care who they took just take the best guy you can get. Manuel was the only QB taken in the first that year and it's not like any other QB has been better. It's been a pretty lousy QB draft. Maybe you can make the case Mike Glennon has been the best of that class. That's like saying however it's the best smelling garbage in the neighborhood.
I wonder what made this guy go back nearly two years ago and pull up this data and why did he concentrate so hard only on first down? I think it's someone desperately reaching and hoping that EJ Manuel is the guy and is our answer at franchise QB. Let's hope he can be but at this point, it doesn't look good unless Greg Roman can work some magic.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
What's Going On Here in Buffalo? First Aaron Kromer Now Ryan O'Reilly
The Buffalo summer is well underway. The weather is finally starting to be nice and the fans are very excited for this upcoming Bills and Sabres season. I can' remember how long it's been for fans to be very excited for both teams, let alone simply one. With the wait comes a lot of down time and in that down time as many of you know leads to some interesting and exciting things happening, both good and bad.
That's especially true with both the Bills and Sabres as one member of each organization did something over the last couple of days that brought upon shame and embarrassment to themselves and their respective organizations. Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer has been arrested for allegedly pushing down and punching a minor over what appears to be three boys taking beach chairs from his property without permission. The other is recent Sabres' acquisition Ryan O'Reilly crashed his truck into a Tim Horton's and left his truck behind. His blood alcohol level was apparently a .08.
Kromer spotted three young boys taking lawn beach chairs from his yard without his permission. He heard what was going on and saw some kids (i don't know how he could tell they were kids assuming it's as dark as it was) doing something. Rather than call the cops, he went out there to confront the kids. After a heated argument, Kromer grabbed one of the kids, pushed him to the ground and punched him according to the police report. If you can't trust a police report what can you trust? Until I learn otherwise I will go by what the police report says.
Another disturbing thing listed on the police report was that Kromer threatened to kill the boy and his parents if they called the police about this. That's not a good look. Unfortunately for Kromer, the threat to kill did not work. Can you imagine Kromer's wife? "Honey you should call the cops about what's going on outside." Aaron replies "no, I will go out there and I will threaten them, punch one of them, and threaten to kill them and their families. We're all good honey."
Why wouldn't Kromer just call the cops especially if it's dark outside? Why would you risk going out there and you don't know who they are and maybe one of them has a gun or something? It's not very smart on Kromer but based on this guy's past track record of judgment, he doesn't have very good judgment. Just like a lot of football people, a lot of these meatheads use their football culture of violence to try to solve issues rather than use common sense.
Don't forget, Kromer last year leaked out to the media that the Chicago Bears regretted giving Jay Cutler that big contract the year before. That drew the ire of many in the Bears' facility and locker room and the media which led to Kromer being fired after the season was over. He should have been gone right on the spot. He seems like an idiot. He should probably be gone over this but I am sure the Bills will wait for the facts to come out before making a move.
I believe in innocent until proven guilty but I would not be upset if they let him go. It's not the end of the world if Aaron Kromer isn't on the staff. You can find another offensive line coach and I am sure many of the players know what's going on as it is because they've had mini camp and OTAs to learn. It's not the end of the world, at least it wasn't Rex Ryan doing this. If that's the case they'd have to do what they can to keep him and discipline him. Kromer, not so much you can move on from him. I didn't like the hire of him in the first place as I am not a fan of the guy based on what happened last year and now this makes me like him even less.
This isn't the first time this offseason a member of the Buffalo Bills has been in hot water for something. Remember last week when second round pick Ronald Darby was criticized for his comments on the Florida State QB hitting that woman on the camera and has been kicked out of the school (http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/2015/07/07/bills-cornerback-under-fire-for-response-to-fsu-assault/29821723/)?
Darby did say hitting women is 100% wrong but drew criticism for saying there was a double standard because the woman hit the QB first before the QB (De'Andre Johnson) slugged her in retaliation and it was caught on camera. While I do agree with Darby about the double standard because I don't think women should hit men in case they think they can get away with it, men should not hit women back because it's simply common sense.
Darby seems to also be sticking up for his college teammate and unfortunately, these young kids are too committed to their teammates, especially college teammates, to the point where they lose proper perspective. Much like Kromer using his football instincts, Darby uses them along with his blind college love to defend a Florida State player. Much like a lot of Bills fans who don't think the Bills do anything wrong, Darby defends a Florida State player for thinking he's done nothing wrong.
Let's not forget, Darby might have a role in covering up the Jameis Winston rape case in December 2012. He was named a witness in the investigation to the rape committed by Winston, who was never charged with rape. Darby did not testify against Winston in a student conduct hearing and was not disciplined by the school. I said it after the draft, I wouldn't have drafted Darby despite some of his skills simply because of what has been alleged to have happened.
Isn't it possible to find someone albeit not as fast but somewhat closely skilled that doesn't have some sort of baggage around him you can take instead? What really is a second round pick cornerback going to do to make this team a playoff and championship team? He might be a very good corner, he might be a great corner. Obviously the Bills and Rex Ryan love him or else they wouldn't draft him with their "first pick." I guess we'll see in due time.
I don't need him that badly to make this team look more foolish as they already have had some interesting things going on such as signing Richie Incognito, the Kromer incident, the taking La'El Collins to dinner while he was being investigated for being a suspect in the shooting death of his pregnant girlfriend, and even drafting Darby's Florida State teammate Karlos Williams, who was alleged to have punched his pregnant girlfriend. Good job Florida State, way to run a great program Jimbo Fisher. He needs to be fired because coaches have been fired for a lot less. I guess the Bills are "building a bully" for sure.
O'Reilly has brought upon further excitement for the upcoming Sabres season (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/sabres-officially-draft-jack-eichel-and.html (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/ryan-oreilly-signs-seven-year-deal-its.html). Optimism should still be high, but it will be a little bit deflated. O'Reilly is due in court on August 20 and if convicted he will face up to six months in jail, $400-$2,000 fine, seven points on his license, and a suspended license up to two years.
O'Reilly probably will and should be suspended by the NHL and even Buffalo Sabres. I wouldn't mind him being sat for however long at the start of the season to teach him a lesson and the others a lesson. Thank God he didn't hurt or kill anyone else. I do want him punished but I don't want him gone and I am not regretting getting him. He's young and made a mistake, albeit a big one. But we've all done that ourselves. It's a ridiculous double standard I get it as he would get punished but not kicked off the team like a 4th line player would, much like an offensive line coach like Kromer would be fired instead of a head coach or even top notch coordinator.
That's just the way sports works. You don't have to like it but it's the way it works.
That's especially true with both the Bills and Sabres as one member of each organization did something over the last couple of days that brought upon shame and embarrassment to themselves and their respective organizations. Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer has been arrested for allegedly pushing down and punching a minor over what appears to be three boys taking beach chairs from his property without permission. The other is recent Sabres' acquisition Ryan O'Reilly crashed his truck into a Tim Horton's and left his truck behind. His blood alcohol level was apparently a .08.
Kromer spotted three young boys taking lawn beach chairs from his yard without his permission. He heard what was going on and saw some kids (i don't know how he could tell they were kids assuming it's as dark as it was) doing something. Rather than call the cops, he went out there to confront the kids. After a heated argument, Kromer grabbed one of the kids, pushed him to the ground and punched him according to the police report. If you can't trust a police report what can you trust? Until I learn otherwise I will go by what the police report says.
Another disturbing thing listed on the police report was that Kromer threatened to kill the boy and his parents if they called the police about this. That's not a good look. Unfortunately for Kromer, the threat to kill did not work. Can you imagine Kromer's wife? "Honey you should call the cops about what's going on outside." Aaron replies "no, I will go out there and I will threaten them, punch one of them, and threaten to kill them and their families. We're all good honey."
Why wouldn't Kromer just call the cops especially if it's dark outside? Why would you risk going out there and you don't know who they are and maybe one of them has a gun or something? It's not very smart on Kromer but based on this guy's past track record of judgment, he doesn't have very good judgment. Just like a lot of football people, a lot of these meatheads use their football culture of violence to try to solve issues rather than use common sense.
Don't forget, Kromer last year leaked out to the media that the Chicago Bears regretted giving Jay Cutler that big contract the year before. That drew the ire of many in the Bears' facility and locker room and the media which led to Kromer being fired after the season was over. He should have been gone right on the spot. He seems like an idiot. He should probably be gone over this but I am sure the Bills will wait for the facts to come out before making a move.
I believe in innocent until proven guilty but I would not be upset if they let him go. It's not the end of the world if Aaron Kromer isn't on the staff. You can find another offensive line coach and I am sure many of the players know what's going on as it is because they've had mini camp and OTAs to learn. It's not the end of the world, at least it wasn't Rex Ryan doing this. If that's the case they'd have to do what they can to keep him and discipline him. Kromer, not so much you can move on from him. I didn't like the hire of him in the first place as I am not a fan of the guy based on what happened last year and now this makes me like him even less.
This isn't the first time this offseason a member of the Buffalo Bills has been in hot water for something. Remember last week when second round pick Ronald Darby was criticized for his comments on the Florida State QB hitting that woman on the camera and has been kicked out of the school (http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/2015/07/07/bills-cornerback-under-fire-for-response-to-fsu-assault/29821723/)?
Darby did say hitting women is 100% wrong but drew criticism for saying there was a double standard because the woman hit the QB first before the QB (De'Andre Johnson) slugged her in retaliation and it was caught on camera. While I do agree with Darby about the double standard because I don't think women should hit men in case they think they can get away with it, men should not hit women back because it's simply common sense.
Darby seems to also be sticking up for his college teammate and unfortunately, these young kids are too committed to their teammates, especially college teammates, to the point where they lose proper perspective. Much like Kromer using his football instincts, Darby uses them along with his blind college love to defend a Florida State player. Much like a lot of Bills fans who don't think the Bills do anything wrong, Darby defends a Florida State player for thinking he's done nothing wrong.
Let's not forget, Darby might have a role in covering up the Jameis Winston rape case in December 2012. He was named a witness in the investigation to the rape committed by Winston, who was never charged with rape. Darby did not testify against Winston in a student conduct hearing and was not disciplined by the school. I said it after the draft, I wouldn't have drafted Darby despite some of his skills simply because of what has been alleged to have happened.
Isn't it possible to find someone albeit not as fast but somewhat closely skilled that doesn't have some sort of baggage around him you can take instead? What really is a second round pick cornerback going to do to make this team a playoff and championship team? He might be a very good corner, he might be a great corner. Obviously the Bills and Rex Ryan love him or else they wouldn't draft him with their "first pick." I guess we'll see in due time.
I don't need him that badly to make this team look more foolish as they already have had some interesting things going on such as signing Richie Incognito, the Kromer incident, the taking La'El Collins to dinner while he was being investigated for being a suspect in the shooting death of his pregnant girlfriend, and even drafting Darby's Florida State teammate Karlos Williams, who was alleged to have punched his pregnant girlfriend. Good job Florida State, way to run a great program Jimbo Fisher. He needs to be fired because coaches have been fired for a lot less. I guess the Bills are "building a bully" for sure.
O'Reilly has brought upon further excitement for the upcoming Sabres season (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/06/sabres-officially-draft-jack-eichel-and.html (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/07/ryan-oreilly-signs-seven-year-deal-its.html). Optimism should still be high, but it will be a little bit deflated. O'Reilly is due in court on August 20 and if convicted he will face up to six months in jail, $400-$2,000 fine, seven points on his license, and a suspended license up to two years.
O'Reilly probably will and should be suspended by the NHL and even Buffalo Sabres. I wouldn't mind him being sat for however long at the start of the season to teach him a lesson and the others a lesson. Thank God he didn't hurt or kill anyone else. I do want him punished but I don't want him gone and I am not regretting getting him. He's young and made a mistake, albeit a big one. But we've all done that ourselves. It's a ridiculous double standard I get it as he would get punished but not kicked off the team like a 4th line player would, much like an offensive line coach like Kromer would be fired instead of a head coach or even top notch coordinator.
That's just the way sports works. You don't have to like it but it's the way it works.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Greg Hardy's Suspension Reduced to 4 Games; I bet Brady's Will Be Reduced as Well But Goodell is Listening to Brady's Appeal
Greg Hardy had his 10-game suspension reduced to just four games, same as Tom Brady for his role in "Deflate Gate." It seems to appear that whenever Roger Goodell makes a ruling on the appeal that Brady made to him last month it could mean a reduction in suspension. Maybe two games, one? The consensus is that what Brady did is nowhere near as awful as Hardy's domestic violence against his ex-girlfriend and that he shouldn't be suspended as long, especially after the commissioner bungled the Ray Rice incident last year.
In a way, Hardy already had a long suspension last year. Hardy was suspended (in a way) by the Panthers for 15 games last season and then now 4 this season so it's a total of 19 games not just 4. Had he been suspended for 10 games this season, it would have been 25. So yeah, the four-game suspension looks awful compared to Brady's exact same for deflating footballs. But when you look at it, Hardy has missed a total of 19 games including this year.
It's so hard to determine cheating on the field is worth as many games as domestic violence and beating women. Obviously the latter is so much worse than the former because this is a stupid football game and these criminals should just be kicked out of the league. Brady should however not get away with anything for cheating on the football field and ruining the integrity of the game. Brady is not suspended four games simply for having footballs deflated, it was because of the alleged cover up and failure to cooperate with the investigation in terms of the CBA.
The commissioner has a league to run and overlook to make sure the integrity of the game is not ruined by cheating and the fans don't doubt the way the league is set up and run. Too bad he fumbled the Ray Rice incident last year and he'll never win regardless is he does the right thing or not because if he suspends Brady for four games, it's as long if not longer than woman beaters.
If he reduces the suspension or drops it, then the league looks tarnished and fans will continue not to trust the commissioner as he is in the back pocket of the Patriots and who knows what is right or wrong in the game.
In a way, Hardy already had a long suspension last year. Hardy was suspended (in a way) by the Panthers for 15 games last season and then now 4 this season so it's a total of 19 games not just 4. Had he been suspended for 10 games this season, it would have been 25. So yeah, the four-game suspension looks awful compared to Brady's exact same for deflating footballs. But when you look at it, Hardy has missed a total of 19 games including this year.
It's so hard to determine cheating on the field is worth as many games as domestic violence and beating women. Obviously the latter is so much worse than the former because this is a stupid football game and these criminals should just be kicked out of the league. Brady should however not get away with anything for cheating on the football field and ruining the integrity of the game. Brady is not suspended four games simply for having footballs deflated, it was because of the alleged cover up and failure to cooperate with the investigation in terms of the CBA.
The commissioner has a league to run and overlook to make sure the integrity of the game is not ruined by cheating and the fans don't doubt the way the league is set up and run. Too bad he fumbled the Ray Rice incident last year and he'll never win regardless is he does the right thing or not because if he suspends Brady for four games, it's as long if not longer than woman beaters.
If he reduces the suspension or drops it, then the league looks tarnished and fans will continue not to trust the commissioner as he is in the back pocket of the Patriots and who knows what is right or wrong in the game.
Saturday, July 4, 2015
The Bills Might Not Have the Worst QB Situation as MMQB Suggests but I think It's Very Close to the Worst; It Could Cost the Bills the Playoffs
I know the Buffalo Bills don't have the best QB situation in the NFL (far from it) but according to this MMQB article writen by Andy Benoit (http://mmqb.si.com/2015/07/03/nfl-quarterback-rankings/3/) the Bills rank dead last in the NFL in terms of starting QB. ESPN did not give the Bills a high ranking either based on their outlook on the next three seasons (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13129838/ranking-nfl-teams-1-32-based-their-outlook-next-three-seasons-nfl). They ranked 26th for those who don't have ESPN insider mainly because their QB situation.
They ranked well in all the rest of the categories except QB. QB is like the exam and/or mid-term or even project/report that counts for the majority of your overall grade in school. You can do very well on the other tests and homework assignments, but bomb on the final exam or whatever counts for the majority of your final grade and watch your grade drop. This is that exact case. Although in the ESPN article it's not entirely fair to judge because we have no idea who or what the QB situation will be. Maybe a Philip Rivers or Drew Brees or someone you never think possible could be available or maybe they draft one (I assume unless one of these QBs succeeds they will be drafting one next year no doubt about it). So we can't assume next year or the year after they'll be having the same QBs as this year. In fact i'll assume they won't, I'll bet on it.
Back to Benoit's article he ranked the teams by starting QB. He assumes Matt Cassel is 32nd/dead last. There's the consensus if they put either E.J. Manuel or Tyrod Taylor in instead of Cassel that they still are the worst in terms of QB or it's a fancier way of saying they have the worst crop of QBs in the NFL. Looking at the list I can't say 100% they are 32nd but they aren't far. If not 32nd, I'd say 31st, 30th, maybe even 29th. Wooooo!! that's progress. Ugh! So big deal, if they're not 32nd they're still one of the 3-5 worst at best. Cleveland I think is the worst because I think Josh McCown is worse than either of the Bills QBs although McCown was almost here. Should the Bills lose points however since McCown bailed on them and went to Cleveland instead?
Obviously I'd say the Browns are 32nd with McCown starting and the train wreck known as Johnny Manziel on the roster. Heck even our former beloved QB Thad Lewis is there in the mix. The same Lewis who went 2-3 in a backup role behind Manuel two years ago and the same guy who "regressed" badly and was released during the preseason last year.
I think Houston could be worse than the Bills as well as currently Brian Hoyer is their starter with Ryan Mallett as their backup maybe competing for the starting job. Doesn't matter if you have two quarterbacks you have none. Mallett did not really impress me and Hoyer was so awful down the stretch for Cleveland last year it made Kyle Orton look like Tom Brady.
The Jets also might be worse as well as Geno Smith is the starter as determined by Chan Gailey already without a competition with fellow backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith is terrible as he's horribly inaccurate and is a turnover machine who was benched several times last year in favor of an aging and ineffective Michael Vick. Fitzpatrick had some really good games last year in Houston and even had some with Gailey here in Buffalo, but he too can be inaccurate and threw too many picks and did not pull out a game in the closing seconds when it mattered the most.
Washington (who was ranked just ahead of the Bills at 31) with RGIII and Kirk Cousins are a joke. RGIII is a joke with his injuries, inaccuracy, and inability to see downfield and poor pocket presence. RGIII has really fallen since his Rookie of the Year season in 2012 and I'd rather not have Washington's QB situation more than the Bills. .
I don't put two other teams in the bottom five: Tampa Bay and Tennessee ahead of the Bills even though they have rookie QBs Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota starting. The fans have to be excited with the top-two picks in the draft and possibility of having their franchise guy instead of three guys who give their fanbase not a lot to look forward too. If the Bills aren't 32nd, they're no better than 28th in my opinion and that's not good enough. If they were 20th I'd like their chances just to make the playoffs. If they were 15th I'd think maybe home playoff game and maybe a playoff win.
Problem is they're the worst or at best, bottom 5. In this day of age, you don't win the Super Bowl without a great QB, not a great defense (alone that is I still believe in having a good defense). You can win without a great QB and make the playoffs but you need a great team around him. This is where you need to build a great defense and spend a lot of money in free agency on both sides of the ball to make the team as best as possible. With that though means you need average QB play to win, heck, even slightly below average with the talent on this team. But when you're bottom five or last in the league, the best you can do is 8-8, or 9-7 with the obligatory win in a meaningless game even with all this talent.
One last thing, these three QBs all have issues one way or another with accuracy. One can throw it farther than the other but struggles in another segment where that other QB thrives on. With that said, if accuracy is a problem which it is, then I want the guy with the best athleticism and ability to move the ball and make plays with his legs. That eliminates Cassel for me from the discussion. If he ends up being the starter, I'll be upset as it's just another journeyman guy like Fitzpatrick, Orton, and Kevin Kolb. However, we'll all be saying something along the lines of "he's the veteran and he's had some success and he might be the best option with this talent manage the game."
I don't think however the coaches are necessarily enamored with that or him, or else they'd endorse him long ago. So that means E.J. and Taylor are in the discussion and one of those two are the favorites. We know what we got in Cassel, we don't quite know with E.J. although 14 games is a pretty decent sample size. Taylor is the one true unknown despite being in the league 4 seasons with Baltimore and has 4 seasons worth or practices, training camps, and preseasons. In reality, E.J. is the one I want to see most because it means he's been the best and hopefully it means he's our guy. If not, then it's Taylor no question.
I want running to be a part of this offense if accuracy is a problem, which it is. If you can't them throwing accurately, beat them by running and not just the running backs. I mean run with the QBs and run actual design plays specifically for the QB. Unfortunately, if you do get into a slugfest by passing the ball, this team will fail and it will cost them the playoffs.
They ranked well in all the rest of the categories except QB. QB is like the exam and/or mid-term or even project/report that counts for the majority of your overall grade in school. You can do very well on the other tests and homework assignments, but bomb on the final exam or whatever counts for the majority of your final grade and watch your grade drop. This is that exact case. Although in the ESPN article it's not entirely fair to judge because we have no idea who or what the QB situation will be. Maybe a Philip Rivers or Drew Brees or someone you never think possible could be available or maybe they draft one (I assume unless one of these QBs succeeds they will be drafting one next year no doubt about it). So we can't assume next year or the year after they'll be having the same QBs as this year. In fact i'll assume they won't, I'll bet on it.
Back to Benoit's article he ranked the teams by starting QB. He assumes Matt Cassel is 32nd/dead last. There's the consensus if they put either E.J. Manuel or Tyrod Taylor in instead of Cassel that they still are the worst in terms of QB or it's a fancier way of saying they have the worst crop of QBs in the NFL. Looking at the list I can't say 100% they are 32nd but they aren't far. If not 32nd, I'd say 31st, 30th, maybe even 29th. Wooooo!! that's progress. Ugh! So big deal, if they're not 32nd they're still one of the 3-5 worst at best. Cleveland I think is the worst because I think Josh McCown is worse than either of the Bills QBs although McCown was almost here. Should the Bills lose points however since McCown bailed on them and went to Cleveland instead?
Obviously I'd say the Browns are 32nd with McCown starting and the train wreck known as Johnny Manziel on the roster. Heck even our former beloved QB Thad Lewis is there in the mix. The same Lewis who went 2-3 in a backup role behind Manuel two years ago and the same guy who "regressed" badly and was released during the preseason last year.
I think Houston could be worse than the Bills as well as currently Brian Hoyer is their starter with Ryan Mallett as their backup maybe competing for the starting job. Doesn't matter if you have two quarterbacks you have none. Mallett did not really impress me and Hoyer was so awful down the stretch for Cleveland last year it made Kyle Orton look like Tom Brady.
The Jets also might be worse as well as Geno Smith is the starter as determined by Chan Gailey already without a competition with fellow backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Smith is terrible as he's horribly inaccurate and is a turnover machine who was benched several times last year in favor of an aging and ineffective Michael Vick. Fitzpatrick had some really good games last year in Houston and even had some with Gailey here in Buffalo, but he too can be inaccurate and threw too many picks and did not pull out a game in the closing seconds when it mattered the most.
Washington (who was ranked just ahead of the Bills at 31) with RGIII and Kirk Cousins are a joke. RGIII is a joke with his injuries, inaccuracy, and inability to see downfield and poor pocket presence. RGIII has really fallen since his Rookie of the Year season in 2012 and I'd rather not have Washington's QB situation more than the Bills. .
I don't put two other teams in the bottom five: Tampa Bay and Tennessee ahead of the Bills even though they have rookie QBs Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota starting. The fans have to be excited with the top-two picks in the draft and possibility of having their franchise guy instead of three guys who give their fanbase not a lot to look forward too. If the Bills aren't 32nd, they're no better than 28th in my opinion and that's not good enough. If they were 20th I'd like their chances just to make the playoffs. If they were 15th I'd think maybe home playoff game and maybe a playoff win.
Problem is they're the worst or at best, bottom 5. In this day of age, you don't win the Super Bowl without a great QB, not a great defense (alone that is I still believe in having a good defense). You can win without a great QB and make the playoffs but you need a great team around him. This is where you need to build a great defense and spend a lot of money in free agency on both sides of the ball to make the team as best as possible. With that though means you need average QB play to win, heck, even slightly below average with the talent on this team. But when you're bottom five or last in the league, the best you can do is 8-8, or 9-7 with the obligatory win in a meaningless game even with all this talent.
One last thing, these three QBs all have issues one way or another with accuracy. One can throw it farther than the other but struggles in another segment where that other QB thrives on. With that said, if accuracy is a problem which it is, then I want the guy with the best athleticism and ability to move the ball and make plays with his legs. That eliminates Cassel for me from the discussion. If he ends up being the starter, I'll be upset as it's just another journeyman guy like Fitzpatrick, Orton, and Kevin Kolb. However, we'll all be saying something along the lines of "he's the veteran and he's had some success and he might be the best option with this talent manage the game."
I don't think however the coaches are necessarily enamored with that or him, or else they'd endorse him long ago. So that means E.J. and Taylor are in the discussion and one of those two are the favorites. We know what we got in Cassel, we don't quite know with E.J. although 14 games is a pretty decent sample size. Taylor is the one true unknown despite being in the league 4 seasons with Baltimore and has 4 seasons worth or practices, training camps, and preseasons. In reality, E.J. is the one I want to see most because it means he's been the best and hopefully it means he's our guy. If not, then it's Taylor no question.
I want running to be a part of this offense if accuracy is a problem, which it is. If you can't them throwing accurately, beat them by running and not just the running backs. I mean run with the QBs and run actual design plays specifically for the QB. Unfortunately, if you do get into a slugfest by passing the ball, this team will fail and it will cost them the playoffs.
Friday, July 3, 2015
Ryan O'Reilly Signs Seven-Year Deal; It's Not Crazy to Think the Sabres Can Make the Playoffs; Looking at Really Quick Turnarounds in One Year
Ryan O'Reilly officially signed a contract extension with the Sabres at 7 years, $52.5 million, the largest in Sabres history at least until Jack Eichel's contract comes up. That doesn't actually kick in until the 2016-17 season. He will actually make $11 million that first season but the thing we focus on is not salary but rather cap hit, which will be $7.5 million. I know it sounds like a lot but it's really not. The fact is the cap is going up because revenues are going up. That is the going rate for a center who is great defensively, at possessing the puck, and on 5-on-5, which is what the game has become.
O'Reilly's cap hit is topped by only elite level players and some players that are better than him, don't cost their team as much against the cap. But they signed their deals within the last couple of years or so and are older than O'Reilly, who is only 24. You have to also take into consideration, this isn't the cap coming out of the 2004-05 lockout, where $7.5 million would have been looked down upon. While his cap number counts 10.5% of the total cap, it would have counted almost double at 19.2% back 10 years ago. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews $10.5 million cap hits count 14.7% of the cap each.
O'Reilly's 5-on-5 numbers are among the best among centers and his points per game over the last four seasons is 19th best among centers (http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=C&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=250&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game). The ones ahead of him are all pretty much elite.
He has great 5-on-5 Corsi numbers despite being on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and with not a lot of skilled talent. Defensively he can shut down any line and has the most takeaways in the NHL the last two years. He also has one of the best even strength points per 60 minutes of any player as well. So yeah, he is not one of the elite number one centers, but he is very good and the going rate will show this will be a bargain in years to come.
The Sabres look to really improve from finishing in last place the last two years with all their additions. Now going from last season's total of 54 points to going into say the low 90s to get into the playoffs seems like a ginormous task. Heck, many think just a 20-point jump is a challenge not 40 points and they'll think that this will be a long rebuild. I am here to tell you that it won't take long even though they were the worst team by miles the last two years.
It wouldn't shock me if they made the playoffs. That's right I think this team can make it because one-year jumps, no matter how bleak it may look, happen on a regular basis in the NHL more than you think. The only way a team does have to go five years or longer to rebuild is because they don't have enough high draft picks and great players. That turns your franchise around quickly, especially in a salary cap era.
It doesn't take much to make the playoffs as if you finish in the top-3 in a division you automatically are locked into a playoff spot. I see the Sabres being better than pretty much every team except Tampa, Montreal (only because they have a great goalie and high point total but that will come down if they don't get better scorers), and Florida I think will be very good but it's only because they've been ahead of the Sabres in the rebuilding department.
It's possible they can finish in the top-3. Detroit is on their way down along with Boston. Ottawa doesn't scare me and Toronto is rebuilding and needs at least one more really great draft. Plus the Sabres were artificially awful as they did everything to ensure they finish 30th for Jack Eichel this past season. If they really tried and got better players by bringing them up or signing them, they could have had 65-70 points, but who wants that? That doesn't get you a potentially elite number one center like Eichel. So don't count last year's point total too much as it was meant to be awful. It wasn't an accident.
I am going to show you non-believers some teams who were awful and turned it around quickly, going from worst to first (or close to first in the division) in just one year thanks to some great high draft picks as well as great free agent and trade pickups.
The San Jose Sharks went from 47 and 62 points in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons to making the playoffs in 1997-98 with just 78 points, but it was enough. They picked Patrick Marleau second overall in the 1997 draft behind current Shark Joe Thornton.
Since then, the Sharks were one of the better teams in the NHL missing the playoffs only twice since then, one was just this past season, despite never making it to the finals. Point is, they went from a bottom feeder to drafting and acquiring great talent and for nearly 20 years were a contender to win the Cup.
Speaking of Thornton, the Bruins finished dead last in the 1996-97 season with 61 points and won the lottery and drafted Thornton. The following year, they made the playoffs with 91 points, a 30-point jump. The Bruins then had a bad run post 2004-05 lockout posting 74 and 76 points in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons where the Sabres were at the top of the league and running over the Bruins.
Since then, the Bruins had been on the NHL's best teams with additions of former #2 overall pick Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, and top-5 pick Phil Kessel, who was then spun off for first round draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton.
The Bruins were perennially a 100-point team, winning their first Stanley Cup in 29 years, going to another Stanley Cup Finals, and winning a President's Trophy. Of course the Bruins are stupid trading both Seguin and Hamilton for nothing and they missed the playoffs this past season and are on the decline.
The New York Islanders missed the playoffs seven straight seasons before 2001-02. That year, they hired an unknown Peter Laviolette as their head coach and made some purchases such as Alexi Yashin and Michael Peca among others and went from 52 points the year before to making the playoffs with 96 points (44 point jump).
In recent years, the Islanders missed the playoffs five straight seasons before acquiring some top picks like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo and made the playoffs in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. After missing the playoffs in 2013-14 with just 79 points, the Islanders rebounded this past season after some retooling with 101 points.
The Carolina Hurricanes had 61 and 76 points when Laviolette took over in 2003-04. The next season, he led Carolina to 112 points and the Stanley Cup thanks to a number two overall pick in Eric Staal and other veteran acquisitions.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were awful when they drafted Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. In fact, Crosby's rookie year, they were still the worst team record wise with 58 points. After getting Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal second overall in drafts, the pens went from 58 points to 105 the next season. The year after that, they lost in the Cup finals. The year after that, they won the Cup. They have also been a perennial 100-point team every year since.
The Washington Capitals were really bad before they drafted Alex Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004. They were still bad in Ovechkin's first two years with 70 points each season before adding players like Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green (when he was an offensive machine) to finish with 94 points in 2007-08 and win the Southeast Division. They have made the playoffs all but one season since and even won the President's Trophy in 2009-10.
The Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs six straight seasons before having a 101-point season in 2009-10. Along the way, the Kings had some high draft picks such as Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and two other top-5 picks were traded for pieces such as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, which helped them win two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014.
The Philadelphia Flyers had a season to forget in 2006-07 where they only had 56 points, worst in the NHL and worst in franchise history. That was the same season where they were destroyed by the Sabres 9-1 and Ken Hitchcock and many of the front office staff were fired. I am sure that 56 points was no accident they probably thought they'd win the Cup or something and then realized we need to retool.
They traded a lot of awful pieces, brought in some of their young talented prospects, brought in players such as Danny Briere, Marty Biron, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen and drafted James Van Riemsdyk second overall. The flyers jumped from 56 points to 95 in 2007-08 and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals in one year. Two years later, they lost in the Staney Cup Finals.
Ryan O'Reilly's old team the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in 2012-13, they won the draft lottery and drafted Nate MacKinnon to go along with other top-2 draft picks Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. the very next season saw the Avalanche jump to 112 points and won the division.
The Montreal Canadiens were the third-worst team and worst in the Eastern Conference with 78 points. They ended up getting a new coach (Michel Therrian) and GM (Marc Bergevin) and a few other things and went from worst to first winning the division in 2012-13. They finished with 100 and 110 points and another division the next two seasons and have been one of the better teams in the East in terms of record. I don't know how exactly, outside of Carey Price and PK Subban they don't have much. They can't score and their forwards aren't that great. They drafted Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012 and he's been decent, he hasn't lived up to the hype of his draft status.
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to be the team to beat for years to come thanks to their high draft picks. They had the third-worst record in 2012-13 but rebounded to 101 points the following season. This past season, they had 108 points and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago. Thanks to first overall pick Steven Stamkos and second overall pick defenseman Victor Hedman along with gems like second round pick Nikita Kucherov and undrafted free agent turned sensation Tyler Johnson, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. They will be the team that wins Cups and the Sabres will have to fight them to get there. Even 2013 third overall pick Jonathan Drouin hasn't done much. He spent 2013-14 in the juniors and didn't contribute a whole lot this season as he was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. When he does live up to his potential, watch out.
The Blackhawks have been the gold standard for the NHL the last 7-8 years, winning three of the last six Stanley Cups and lost in the conference finals two other times. Before that, they were one of the worst teams not only in the NHL but in all professional sports. They missed the playoffs 9 out of 10 seasons and were considered a laughing stock. The fans didn't go to Blackhawk games, instead they went to the AHL Chicago Wolves games. But they drafted Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and along with two of the best defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, and others they built what is somewhat of a dynasty. In Kane and Toews first season, they went from 71 points to 88, just missing the playoffs but the groundwork for success was laid out.
The Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are two teams on the rise. The Panthers went from 66 points two seasons ago to 91 this past season. They have had three top-3 picks in recent years; Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad, who have helped this young team develop and win quickly.
The Blue Jackets don't have a ton of high draft picks except 4th overall pick Ryan Johansen, 3rd overall pick Jack Johnson, who's done well since being traded by the Kings, and 2nd overall pick defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been injured a lot and has not lived up to the hype. But the players they get off of other teams such as Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Johnson, and Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky have helped turn this moribund franchise into a young promising playoff team. They went from a league worst 65 points in 2011-12 to just missing the playoffs by one point in 2012-13. They made the playoffs in 2013-14 with 93 points, but missed the playoffs this season despite having 89 points with over 500 man games lost due to injury.
So as you see, it doesn't take a lot to get your team from the bottom to just making the playoffs the following season. Even at worst, it might take two years but even the year before shows the team just barely misses the playoffs and shows tremendous progress. It's not that hard as long as you rebuild the right way, which i believe the Sabres did.
O'Reilly's cap hit is topped by only elite level players and some players that are better than him, don't cost their team as much against the cap. But they signed their deals within the last couple of years or so and are older than O'Reilly, who is only 24. You have to also take into consideration, this isn't the cap coming out of the 2004-05 lockout, where $7.5 million would have been looked down upon. While his cap number counts 10.5% of the total cap, it would have counted almost double at 19.2% back 10 years ago. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews $10.5 million cap hits count 14.7% of the cap each.
O'Reilly's 5-on-5 numbers are among the best among centers and his points per game over the last four seasons is 19th best among centers (http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=C&handed=&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=250&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game). The ones ahead of him are all pretty much elite.
He has great 5-on-5 Corsi numbers despite being on one of the worst possession teams in the NHL and with not a lot of skilled talent. Defensively he can shut down any line and has the most takeaways in the NHL the last two years. He also has one of the best even strength points per 60 minutes of any player as well. So yeah, he is not one of the elite number one centers, but he is very good and the going rate will show this will be a bargain in years to come.
The Sabres look to really improve from finishing in last place the last two years with all their additions. Now going from last season's total of 54 points to going into say the low 90s to get into the playoffs seems like a ginormous task. Heck, many think just a 20-point jump is a challenge not 40 points and they'll think that this will be a long rebuild. I am here to tell you that it won't take long even though they were the worst team by miles the last two years.
It wouldn't shock me if they made the playoffs. That's right I think this team can make it because one-year jumps, no matter how bleak it may look, happen on a regular basis in the NHL more than you think. The only way a team does have to go five years or longer to rebuild is because they don't have enough high draft picks and great players. That turns your franchise around quickly, especially in a salary cap era.
It doesn't take much to make the playoffs as if you finish in the top-3 in a division you automatically are locked into a playoff spot. I see the Sabres being better than pretty much every team except Tampa, Montreal (only because they have a great goalie and high point total but that will come down if they don't get better scorers), and Florida I think will be very good but it's only because they've been ahead of the Sabres in the rebuilding department.
It's possible they can finish in the top-3. Detroit is on their way down along with Boston. Ottawa doesn't scare me and Toronto is rebuilding and needs at least one more really great draft. Plus the Sabres were artificially awful as they did everything to ensure they finish 30th for Jack Eichel this past season. If they really tried and got better players by bringing them up or signing them, they could have had 65-70 points, but who wants that? That doesn't get you a potentially elite number one center like Eichel. So don't count last year's point total too much as it was meant to be awful. It wasn't an accident.
I am going to show you non-believers some teams who were awful and turned it around quickly, going from worst to first (or close to first in the division) in just one year thanks to some great high draft picks as well as great free agent and trade pickups.
The San Jose Sharks went from 47 and 62 points in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons to making the playoffs in 1997-98 with just 78 points, but it was enough. They picked Patrick Marleau second overall in the 1997 draft behind current Shark Joe Thornton.
Since then, the Sharks were one of the better teams in the NHL missing the playoffs only twice since then, one was just this past season, despite never making it to the finals. Point is, they went from a bottom feeder to drafting and acquiring great talent and for nearly 20 years were a contender to win the Cup.
Speaking of Thornton, the Bruins finished dead last in the 1996-97 season with 61 points and won the lottery and drafted Thornton. The following year, they made the playoffs with 91 points, a 30-point jump. The Bruins then had a bad run post 2004-05 lockout posting 74 and 76 points in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons where the Sabres were at the top of the league and running over the Bruins.
Since then, the Bruins had been on the NHL's best teams with additions of former #2 overall pick Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, and top-5 pick Phil Kessel, who was then spun off for first round draft picks that became Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton.
The Bruins were perennially a 100-point team, winning their first Stanley Cup in 29 years, going to another Stanley Cup Finals, and winning a President's Trophy. Of course the Bruins are stupid trading both Seguin and Hamilton for nothing and they missed the playoffs this past season and are on the decline.
The New York Islanders missed the playoffs seven straight seasons before 2001-02. That year, they hired an unknown Peter Laviolette as their head coach and made some purchases such as Alexi Yashin and Michael Peca among others and went from 52 points the year before to making the playoffs with 96 points (44 point jump).
In recent years, the Islanders missed the playoffs five straight seasons before acquiring some top picks like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo and made the playoffs in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. After missing the playoffs in 2013-14 with just 79 points, the Islanders rebounded this past season after some retooling with 101 points.
The Carolina Hurricanes had 61 and 76 points when Laviolette took over in 2003-04. The next season, he led Carolina to 112 points and the Stanley Cup thanks to a number two overall pick in Eric Staal and other veteran acquisitions.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were awful when they drafted Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. In fact, Crosby's rookie year, they were still the worst team record wise with 58 points. After getting Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal second overall in drafts, the pens went from 58 points to 105 the next season. The year after that, they lost in the Cup finals. The year after that, they won the Cup. They have also been a perennial 100-point team every year since.
The Washington Capitals were really bad before they drafted Alex Ovechkin 1st overall in 2004. They were still bad in Ovechkin's first two years with 70 points each season before adding players like Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green (when he was an offensive machine) to finish with 94 points in 2007-08 and win the Southeast Division. They have made the playoffs all but one season since and even won the President's Trophy in 2009-10.
The Los Angeles Kings missed the playoffs six straight seasons before having a 101-point season in 2009-10. Along the way, the Kings had some high draft picks such as Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar and two other top-5 picks were traded for pieces such as Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, which helped them win two Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014.
The Philadelphia Flyers had a season to forget in 2006-07 where they only had 56 points, worst in the NHL and worst in franchise history. That was the same season where they were destroyed by the Sabres 9-1 and Ken Hitchcock and many of the front office staff were fired. I am sure that 56 points was no accident they probably thought they'd win the Cup or something and then realized we need to retool.
They traded a lot of awful pieces, brought in some of their young talented prospects, brought in players such as Danny Briere, Marty Biron, Scott Hartnell, and Kimmo Timonen and drafted James Van Riemsdyk second overall. The flyers jumped from 56 points to 95 in 2007-08 and made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals in one year. Two years later, they lost in the Staney Cup Finals.
Ryan O'Reilly's old team the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in 2012-13, they won the draft lottery and drafted Nate MacKinnon to go along with other top-2 draft picks Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. the very next season saw the Avalanche jump to 112 points and won the division.
The Montreal Canadiens were the third-worst team and worst in the Eastern Conference with 78 points. They ended up getting a new coach (Michel Therrian) and GM (Marc Bergevin) and a few other things and went from worst to first winning the division in 2012-13. They finished with 100 and 110 points and another division the next two seasons and have been one of the better teams in the East in terms of record. I don't know how exactly, outside of Carey Price and PK Subban they don't have much. They can't score and their forwards aren't that great. They drafted Alex Galchenyuk third overall in 2012 and he's been decent, he hasn't lived up to the hype of his draft status.
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to be the team to beat for years to come thanks to their high draft picks. They had the third-worst record in 2012-13 but rebounded to 101 points the following season. This past season, they had 108 points and lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Chicago. Thanks to first overall pick Steven Stamkos and second overall pick defenseman Victor Hedman along with gems like second round pick Nikita Kucherov and undrafted free agent turned sensation Tyler Johnson, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. They will be the team that wins Cups and the Sabres will have to fight them to get there. Even 2013 third overall pick Jonathan Drouin hasn't done much. He spent 2013-14 in the juniors and didn't contribute a whole lot this season as he was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs. When he does live up to his potential, watch out.
The Blackhawks have been the gold standard for the NHL the last 7-8 years, winning three of the last six Stanley Cups and lost in the conference finals two other times. Before that, they were one of the worst teams not only in the NHL but in all professional sports. They missed the playoffs 9 out of 10 seasons and were considered a laughing stock. The fans didn't go to Blackhawk games, instead they went to the AHL Chicago Wolves games. But they drafted Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and along with two of the best defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, and others they built what is somewhat of a dynasty. In Kane and Toews first season, they went from 71 points to 88, just missing the playoffs but the groundwork for success was laid out.
The Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets are two teams on the rise. The Panthers went from 66 points two seasons ago to 91 this past season. They have had three top-3 picks in recent years; Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Aaron Ekblad, who have helped this young team develop and win quickly.
The Blue Jackets don't have a ton of high draft picks except 4th overall pick Ryan Johansen, 3rd overall pick Jack Johnson, who's done well since being traded by the Kings, and 2nd overall pick defenseman Ryan Murray, who has been injured a lot and has not lived up to the hype. But the players they get off of other teams such as Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Johnson, and Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky have helped turn this moribund franchise into a young promising playoff team. They went from a league worst 65 points in 2011-12 to just missing the playoffs by one point in 2012-13. They made the playoffs in 2013-14 with 93 points, but missed the playoffs this season despite having 89 points with over 500 man games lost due to injury.
So as you see, it doesn't take a lot to get your team from the bottom to just making the playoffs the following season. Even at worst, it might take two years but even the year before shows the team just barely misses the playoffs and shows tremendous progress. It's not that hard as long as you rebuild the right way, which i believe the Sabres did.
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