Drafting Forwards in the Top-3 Equal Success

I wrote about how the Sabres should trade up to get into the top-3 of the NHL Draft to take either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/06/what-sabres-should-do-trade-up-into-top.html). As I know many of you probably disagree and that's fine. But I am going to prove you wrong because the NHL Draft provides very successful talent immediately as they enter the NHL. I will show you each of the forwards taken in the top-3 in each of the NHL Drafts dating back to 1997 as forward is what the Sabres need. Defensemen taken in the top-3 are successful as well and I could care less about goalies taken in the top-3. But I am focusing on forwards only because that's what the Sabres need most and if they take a defenseman or especially a goalie I will puke. So here are each of the forwards who were taken in the top-3 of each NHL Draft from 1997 to last year:

1997: 1. Joe Thornton - Boston, 2. Patrick Marleau - San Jose, 3. Olli Jokinen - Los Angeles
1998: 1. Vincent Lecavalier - Tampa Bay, 2. David Legwand - Nashville
1999: 1. Patrik Stefan - Atlanta, 2. & 3. Daniel & Henrik Sedin - Vancouver
2000: 2. Dany Heatley - Atlanta, 3. Marian Gaborik - Minnesota
2001: 1. Ilya Kovalchuk - Atlanta, 2. Jason Spezza - Ottawa, 3. Alexandr Svitov - Tampa Bay
2002: 1. Rick Nash - Columbus
2003: 2. Eric Staal - Carolina, 3. Nathan Horton - Florida
2004: 1. Alexander Ovechkin - Washington, 2. Evgeni Malkin - Pittsburgh
2005: 1. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh, 2. Bobby Ryan - Anaheim
2006: 2. Jordan Staal - Pittsburgh, 3. Jonathan Toews - Chicago
2007: 1. Patrick Kane - Chicago, 2. James van Riemsdyk - Philadelphia, 3. Kyle Turris - Phoenix
2008: 1. Steve Stamkos - Tampa Bay
2009: 1. John Tavares - New York Islanders, 3. Matt Duchene - Colorado
2010: 1. Taylor Hall - Edmonton, 2. Tyler Seguin - Boston
2011: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Edmonton, 2. Gabriel Landeskog - Colorado, 3. Jonathan Huberdeau - Florida*

30 of the 32 picks (not counting Huberdeau who has yet to play in the NHL after returning to juniors this year) have been successful. Only Patrik Stefan and Alexandr Svitov has been a bust. That's a 94% success rate. Look at any other draft in professional sports and look at the top-3 to see that kind of success. I guarantee there is none. The other thing with drafting in the top-3 means that the player plays right away in the NHL. Generally outside the top-5 or 10, the player either plays a year or two in juniors or minors so it will take a few years for him to make an impact if at all. Not in the top-3 they play right now and are successful right now. The best part of all is the salary as they do not make more than $900,000 a season over a maximum of 3 years. Sure after the second year, you'll have to give them a 7-8 yr. deal of over $7 million a year. If they don't pan out, it's not expensive. But hardly any flame out or are busts taken that high. That's why it makes so much sense to draft at the top.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks were bad for a few years and drafted in the top-2 or 3 and eventually they got pieces to build a Stanley Cup winner. The Penguins lucked out in 05 and got Sidney Crosby in the lottery, a lottery in which any team had a chance to win the best player in hockey. In addition to that, they go ahead and draft MVP Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and they win the Cup in 09 after making the finals in 08. The Blackhawks get both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane and win the Cup in 2010, the first time in nearly 50 years they won the Cup. Vincent Lecavalier, Eric Staal, and Bobby Ryan helped their respective teams win a Cup. Even Tyler Seguin, along with Nathan Horton, helped the Bruins win the Cup last year. Alexander Ovechkin and Steve Stamkos have been two of the best players in the NHL. Even Nugent-Hopkins and Ladeskog were finalists for the Calder Trophy this year. And so on.

What the Sabres Should Do; Trade Up Into the Top-3

This will be an interesting off season for the Sabres as this will be Terry Pegula's second off season as team owner. His goal is to win the Stanley Cup and the Sabres struggled most of this past season as they finished a disappointing 9th in the Eastern Conference and out of the playoffs. The Sabres struggled with scoring as they were 16th in scoring despite being something like 25th most of the season. They did improve once Tyler Ennis was healthy and they traded for Cody Hodgson. But it wasn't enough to overcome a terrible mid November to January. The Sabres need an elite scorer/center on this team. Now what do the Sabres do? Do they acquire Rick Nash from Columbus for a very hefty price tag? Do they attempt to acquire the rights to Zach Parise and sign him? I say neither (not that I would hate either move). My move would be to trade up into the NHL Draft with either Edmonton or Columbus and draft either Nail Yakupov or Alex Galchenyuk.

Darcy Regier needs to call Edmonton and/or Columbus and see what it would take to move into the 1st or 2nd spot in the draft and take an elite player. I know what many of you are thinking; "why would they risk a Russian player at the top of the draft? It would be such a risk!" Negative. In fact, the NHL produces great players at the top of the draft for the last 20 years and these players contribute right away. The success at the top of the draft is more than any other sport, even more than the NFL. Plus you don't have to pay these players a lot as the maximum contract for the 1st overall pick is a 3-year deal worth only $900,000 a season. That's about 1/10th of what you would have to pay one of the top players in the league. I ask, wouldn't you want an elite 30-40 goal scorer for $900,000? I would hope so or else you need your head examined. The Risk-Reward factor is there's almost no risk and a very high reward. I almost believe there's a much greater risk signing a veteran for $7-8 million a year than moving up into the draft to take one of these elite young players. This is why I want this to happen.

Edmonton and Columbus are both terrible and both said they want to trade out. The Sabres are the perfect team to make this deal as their first pick is 12 and they also have the #21, 42, and 44 picks as well. They could and should trade every pick to move up and I would be willing to part ways with a defensive prospect (Mark Pysyk) because we have enough defensemen on this roster and we need forward depth. The goal is to win the Cup now or in the next couple of years. I am not interested in making this team great 4-5 years down the road, I want to win now and drafting in the top-3 would make our team instantly.

For those who are worried about drafting a Russian player, believe me, there is nothing to worry about with Yakupov or Galchenyuk. Both these players want to play here and live here. Yakupov came to Canada at a young age while Galchenyuk was born in the U.S. in Milwaukee and played in Chicago before moving to Canada and teamed with Yakupov. These guys want to play the US/Canada physical style of hockey more than European/Russian style of play. Mikhail Grigorenko was another player considered at the top of the draft and has been compared to Evgeni Malkin. But he has also been a disappointment as he has been inconsistent and has been dropping to perhaps out of the top-10.

I will write another blog in the next day or so that features the success of drafting in the top-3 of the NHL Draft. Darcy, get off your butt and do this please. Thanks.

How Did the Kings Win?

How did the Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup? They were the first-ever 8th seeded team to win the Stanley Cup. Before this year, no team below a 5th seed and outside of the top-8 in overall NHL standings ever won the Cup. The Kings had 15 loser points and won just 40 of 82 games. So they had a subpar record. Outside of goalie Jonathan Quick and center Enze Kopitar, most of the players had career-worst years. the Kings scored the 2nd fewest goals of any team in the NHL this season, but they allowed the 2nd fewest. They really lacked elite star power on offense. Kopitar is very good but I am not sure he is an elite player. I like Captain Dustin Brown and Mike Richards, who the Kings acquired from Philly after last season. But both struggled in the regular season. They fired head coach Terry Murray in December with a 13-12-4 record. After brief run with interim coach John Stevens, the Kings hired Darryl Sutter as the permanent head coach. Sutter had been a good coach, but many felt his teams underachieved in the playoffs. The Kings did go 25-13-11 with Sutter as coach so the coaching change did work.

The Kings were in 11th place on March 11th, but were still in contention for the Pacific Division. They lost out to Phoenix and settled for 8th place in a very competitive Western Conference. They were 9-2-3 in their final 14 games, enough to lift them into the playoffs. They took on the President’s Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks in the 1st round and many, including myself, predicted the Canucks would win and play for the Stanley Cup. Instead the Kings, behind Quick, shut down the high-scoring Canucks in five games, allowing just 8 goals. Quick was even more impressive against the 2nd seeded St. Louis Blues, where he allowed just 6 goals in a four-game sweep. Then the Kings displaced the 3rd seeded Phoenix Coyotes in 5 games as they moved onto the finals for the 2nd time in franchise history, the other was 1993 with Wayne Gretzky. The Kings were only the second team in NHL history to defeat the top-3 seeds in their conference, the other was the 2003-04 Calgary Flames, coached ironically by Darryl Sutter. The Kings continued their dominance in the first three games of the finals against the New Jersey Devils, outscoring them 8-2 as they were up 3-0 in the series. But the Devils fought back hard to win games 4 and 5 to force a 6th game back in L.A. However, the Kings scored 3 power play goals in the 1st period en route to a dominating 6-1 win and won their first-ever Stanley Cup in their 45-year history.

They finished a whopping 16-4 in the playoffs, including 10-1 on the roadwhich includes an NHL 10 consecutive road playoff victories and a road playoff record. Quick won the Conn Smythe Trophy with a 16-4 record, an incredible .946 save % and a 1.41 goals against average. Dustin Brown and Enze Kopitar tied for the lead in scoring with 8 goals and 20 points and a +16. Justin Williams had a good playoff and defensemen Drew Doughty was simply amazing averaging over 26 minutes of ice time. Former Flyers Mike Richards and Jeff Carter both had great playoffs after they both had down regular seasons. Richards and Carter showed the Flyers how wrong they were for shipping them away after last season’s playoff loss and they were the scapegoats because they partied and drank too much. How does that feel now Philly? They beat the team that beat you in the playoffs. Add Simon Gagne and former coach Flyer coach and current assistant coach John Stevens, and its even more pain for Flyer fans who have been waiting for a Cup since 1975. I could not be happier just based on that merit.

How in the world did the Kings win? Beats the heck out of me. It shows you that now you can make the playoffs and you have a strong shot to win. New Jersey could have won and they would be the first 6th seed to win the Cup, but they were no ordinary 6th seed as they had 100 points and barely finished 4th in the super competitive Atlantic Division. There is a lot of questions up coming for the Devils including will Brodeur retire and will they be able to keep some free agents, such as Zach Parise? I do want to congratulate New Jersey on a fantastic season despite the disappointing ending.