Tuesday, April 26, 2016

NHL Draft Lottery Simulator 5.0

According to http://nhllotterysimulator.com/, I run a simulation of how the draft lottery is. Remember for the first time ever, the draft lottery includes the top-3 picks so Toronto, who finished dead last, can draft as low as fourth as you can now drop three spots.

Here is the draft order from 1-14 from worst to the highest team not in the playoffs (Boston) and the odds of the number one overall pick as well as second and third written right next to them

1. Toronto (20%, 22.099%, 22.346%)
2. Edmonton (13.5%, 16.875%, 18.367%)
3. Vancouver (11.5%, 14.375%, 15.646%)
4. Columbus (9.5%, 11.875%, 12.925%)
5. Calgary (8.5%, 10.625%, 11.565%)
6. Winnipeg (7.5%, 9.375%, 10.204%)
7. Arizona (6.5%, 8.125%, 7.263%)
8. Buffalo (6%, 7.5%, 8.163%)
9, Montreal (5%, 6.25%, 6.803%)
10. Colorado (3.5%, 4.375%, 4.762%)
11. New Jersey (3%, 3.75%, 4.082%)
12. Ottawa (2.5%, 3.125%, 3.401%)
13. Carolina (2%, 2.5%, 2.721%)
14. Boston (1%, 1.25%, 1.361%)

After running the draft simulator, here is the order from 14 to 3. I have listed the team in the proper number along with in parenthesis the actual team who should be there.

14. Boston (Boston)

13. Carolina (Carolina)

12. Ottawa (Ottawa)

11. New Jersey (New Jersey)

10. Montreal (Colorado)
Montreal falls down one spot to #10 as Colorado moves into the top-3.

9. Buffalo (originally Montreal, now Buffalo)
Buffalo falls one spot down to #9.

8. Winnipeg (originally Buffalo, now Arizona)
Arizona moves into the top-3 along with Colorado as Winnipeg drops two spots to #8. Aren't you proud Winnipeg for winning four straight meaningless games to end the season and cost yourself the highest possible pick!?

7. Calgary (originally Arizona, now Calgary)
Calgary falls two spots to #7.

6. Columbus (originally Winnipeg, now Columbus)
Columbus falls two spots to #6. See Columbus what happens when you win meaningless games late in the season.

5. Edmonton (originally Calgary, now Vancouver)
Edmonton falls three spots to #5 as Vancouver joins Arizona and Colorado in the top-3. Toronto also falls three spots to #4.

The third pick of the 2016 NHL Draft is......the Colorado Avalanche. The second pick of the 2016 NHL Draft belongs to......Arizona, who misses out on their local kid Auston Matthews and the winner of the 2016 NHL Draft Lottery is the Vancouver Canucks. They will take Auston Matthews. Good night Ladies and Gentlemen!!

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