Saturday, April 23, 2016

NHL Draft Simulator 2.0

According to http://nhllotterysimulator.com/, I run a simulation of how the draft lottery is. Remember for the first time ever, the draft lottery includes the top-3 picks so Toronto, who finished dead last, can draft as low as fourth as you can now drop three spots.

Here is the draft order from 1-14 from worst to the highest team not in the playoffs (Boston) and the odds of the number one overall pick as well as second and third written right next to them

1. Toronto (20%, 22.099%, 22.346%)
2. Edmonton (13.5%, 16.875%, 18.367%)
3. Vancouver (11.5%, 14.375%, 15.646%)
4. Columbus (9.5%, 11.875%, 12.925%)
5. Calgary (8.5%, 10.625%, 11.565%)
6. Winnipeg (7.5%, 9.375%, 10.204%)
7. Arizona (6.5%, 8.125%, 7.263%)
8. Buffalo (6%, 7.5%, 8.163%)
9, Montreal (5%, 6.25%, 6.803%)
10. Colorado (3.5%, 4.375%, 4.762%)
11. New Jersey (3%, 3.75%, 4.082%)
12. Ottawa (2.5%, 3.125%, 3.401%)
13. Carolina (2%, 2.5%, 2.721%)
14. Boston (1%, 1.25%, 1.361%)

After running the draft simulator, here is the order from 14 to 3. I have listed the team in the proper number along with in parenthesis the actual team who should be there.

14. Boston (Boston)

13. Carolina (Carolina)

12. Ottawa (Ottawa)

11. New Jersey (New Jersey)

10. Colorado (Colorado)

9. Buffalo (Montreal)
Montreal has moved into the lottery, Buffalo falls one spot to 9.

8. Arizona (originally Buffalo, now Arizona)
Arizona falls one spot to 8.

7. Columbus (originally Arizona, now Winnipeg)
This was supposed to be Winnipeg if they didn't get into the top-3, but they did in this scenario. With Columbus falling three spots to 7th, it means that both Winnipeg and Calgary make it to the top-3. Vancouver, Edmonton, and Toronto all fall three spots each to 6th, 5th, and 4th, respectively. 

Picking third will be the Montreal Canadiens. And the winner of the 2016 NHL Draft Lottery will be.....

The Winnipeg Jets!! Calgary will draft second and Montreal third. Winnipeg has won the Auston Matthews sweeptstakes. Good Night Ladies and Gentlemen!!

No comments:

Post a Comment