I don't believe in grading the draft because you need at least three years to do so. Even things like winners and losers of the draft is pointless because again, you need 3 years to determine. But I'd to look at several teams who I believe did well and made good picks. I'll even look at a couple of head scratchers as well.
I'll start with the Indianapolis Colts, who drafted Andrew Luck 1st overall, no shock there. They went heavy on offense in the draft, giving Luck plenty of weapons at his disposal as 8 of their 10 picks were on offense. They used the 2nd and 3rd round picks on tight ends: Coby Fleener, Luck's guy at Stanford, and Clemson's Dwayne Allen, who are the top tight ends in this draft as both Dallas Clark and Jacob Tammi, who followed Peyton Manning to Denver, are no longer on the team. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is a burner, but is small. You have a franchise QB hopefully for 10-15 years so you better surround him with talent right away as he tries to learn the game. The Washington Redskins gave up a lot to move up to #2 to take Robert Griffin III and it could very well be worth the gamble. Or so we think as the Redskins use a 4th round pick on Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins, who some feel can be a starter. Why would they do that? I know QB is the most important position in football and if something happens to Griffin, it's nice to have a starter. I know they have Cousins rated pretty high or else they wouldn't take him. But how can you take a guy who might compete for a starting job somewhere and have him be a backup to a guy who should be the starter? What about in training camp and preseason if Cousins outplays Griffin? The fans will be calling for Cousins. It reminds me of the 1994 Draft when Washington took Heath Shuler 3rd overall and Gus Frerotte in the 7th round and Frerotte eventually beat out Shuler as Shuler was a bust. Of course RG3 I don't think will be Shuler. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to me especially considering Cousins is a leader and wants to be a starter. You can't have two leaders at the QB position. But he is a 4th round pick for a reason, maybe he was over hyped and he'll either prove the critics right or wrong. This could eventually lead to a trade down the road, sort of like Atlanta a few years ago when the Falcons had both Mike Vick and Matt Schaub and traded Schaub for draft picks after he played well in a few games replacing an injured Vick. Maybe they trade Cousins, maybe they trade RG3? Trust me if RG3 is the guy, he will overcome this. If not, then the Redskins drafted the wrong guy.
Cleveland moved up one spot to take running back Trent Richardson, who they really liked and prevented Tampa Bay from moving up to grab him. Richardson can be an elite back and Cleveland needs all the help on offense they can get. But it doesn't excuse them from not being able to trade up for RG3. Then they take 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden out of Oklahoma State 22nd overall. Weeden has talent despite his age, but he operates from the spread offense, which as we seen has not translated into much success in the NFL, IE Blaine Gabbert. They needed a wide receiver more than they needed OT Mitchell Swartz in the 2nd round, but that's what they believe they needed so they took him. Minnesota got 3 late round picks from the Browns to move down one spot to 4th to take USC OT Matt Kalil, who they were going to take anyway and got more picks because of it. Maybe the whole "we aren't taking Kalil 3rd overall" was just a smokescreen for some team to trade up. The Vikings need a left tackle to protect Christian Ponder. They addressed secondary help in safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Josh Robinson.
Tampa Bay missed out on a chance to grab Trent Richardson so they traded down with Jacksonville for their 4th round pick even though I thought they were going to get cornerback Morris Claiborne, who they needed. Well they thought they could get him at 7, but Dallas moves up in what was perhaps the move of the draft to take Claiborne as they need a corner very bad. I absolutely loved what Dallas did right there, they made a statement saying "our secondary is not good enough and need to improve." They play in a division with Eli Manning and Victor Cruz, Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson, and RG3 and Pierre Garcon. I believe the Cowboys are a corner away from making the playoffs as they blew five double digit leads last year. Tampa Bay selects safety Mark Barron, who they claim they were going to take anyways. If that's true then OK, decent move. He is a top-10 player. But if they really thought they'd wanted and would get Claiborne at 7, then shame on them. I did like the Bucs trading up in the late first round to get the running back that Greg Schiano wants in Boise State's Doug Martin. Outside linebacker Lavonte David seems to be a really good fit. Jacksonville took Justin Blackmon as they need to give Blaine Gabbert help in the passing game. They also added value in DE Andre Branch. But they made perhaps the worst move in the draft by drafting a punter, yes a punter, in the 3rd round in Bryan Anger. A punter is a position of not great need as the Raiders have had the best punter in the league with Shane Lechler, and look how they do. There's no need to take a punter anywhere in the top-4-5 rounds. They don't win you games, especially in a passing league. Jacksonville is a terrible team and should be going for it more on 4th down and punting less. Maybe they did this to sell tickets LOL.
St. Louis had a great draft that includes the trade in March from the Redskins for three 1st round picks plus trading down with Dallas for the 14th pick and more picks. They took defensive tackle Michael Brockers out of LSU, a position they need. They took WR Brian Quick in the 2nd round to give Sam Bradford a much needed target and very talented but troubled corner back Janoris Jenkins. The Rams believe Jeff Fisher could work with Jenkins in order to control him. If it works out, then it's a home run. Of course they thought that back in '05 when Tennessee took Adam "Pacman" Jones and that turned out to blow up in their face, but of course the Titans took him 5th overall. Even though top-10 picks aren't used on inside linebackers, the Carolina Panthers believe that Boston College's tackling machine Luke Kuechly is worth a top-10 spot. The 2nd wide receiver in the draft, Michael Floyd, was drafted 13th overall with the Arizona Cardinals and will team up with Larry Fitzgerald to give them a potent 1-2 receiving combination. Of course, the Cards don't have anyone to throw the football to them.
Miami finally got a quarterback after missing out on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and Alex Smith. They took Ryan Tannehill 8th overall, which is a bit of a reach but the team believes he's a franchise guy and sometimes you have to reach early. Tannehill has the talent and ability, but is still pretty raw as he was a wide receiver at Texas A&M until midway through his junior year when he finally became the starting QB. Tannehill will probably have to sit a year or so and can sit behind Matt Moore, who was more than serviceable last year but not a franchise QB. That could be a problem though as you don't use an 8th overall pick for a guy to sit on the bench and get comfortable. That's my take. But the Dolphins shored up their offensive line by taking Stanford OT Jonathan Martin in the 2nd round. Another big QB prospect, and I mean big as in 6'8 Brock Osweiler went in the 2nd round with the Denver Broncos, who can afford to sit him a few years and learn behind Peyton Manning.
Teams like the Giants, Steelers, and Ravens had good drafts as usual. The Giants took Boise State running back David Wilson in the 1st round and wide receiver LSU Rueben Randle with the final pick of the 2nd round when he should have gone late 1st, early 2nd. The Steelers took the best guard in the draft in David DeCastro, who could be the best guard since Steve Hutchinson, in the 1st round and Ohio State tackle Mike Adams in the 2nd, who is very talented but failed marijuana tests as he tumbled from the 1st to 2nd round. The Steelers believe they can work on Adams and he can be a productive left tackle. The Ravens traded out of the 1st round and took Alabama's outside linebacker/defensive end Courtney Upshaw along with a couple of guards. The two teams with the two worst defenses statistically in the league in the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers upgraded their defenses. The Patriots actually traded up in the 1st round to take Syracuse DE Chandler Jones and took Alabama inside linebacker Dont'a Hightower with the other 1st round pick. The Packers took OLB Nick Perry, DT Jerel Worthy, corner back Casey Hayward.
Now onto the teams who I liked are the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles traded up for DT Fletcher Cox, the best DT prospect in the draft, ILB Mychal Kendricks, DE Vinny Curry, who has been considered a first round pick, QB Nick Foles for the future. The Bengals continue to do things right especially after last year's draft which featured AJ Green and Andy Dalton and the trading of Carson Palmer to Oakland for a 1st and 2nd round pick. The Bengals drafted Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick in the 1st round and traded down their 2nd 1st round pick to take guard Kevin Zeitler. In Kirkpatrick, the Bengals get a big, physical corner who can cover the best of receivers and could very well start on opening day. They also added DT Devon Still and receiver Mohamed Sanu.
Those who possibly reached were the Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, and Seattle Seahawks. The Chiefs did not take a QB whether it was trade up for Tannehill or taking Osweiler or Foles or Cousins in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. They drafted DT Dontari Poe 11th overall, who impressed everyone with his combine but has been known for his lack of passion and known for his laziness and poor work ethic. He was taken ahead of the better tackle prospect in Fletcher Cox. Speaking of another great athlete but work ethic issues, Quinton Coples taken in the 1st round by the Jets. On the plus side, the Jets did take wide receiver Stephen Hill in the 2nd round. The Seahawks were probably the biggest disappointments in the draft as they reached big time for West Virginia OLB Bruce Irvin. Irvin was considered to be a 2nd round pick and he went 15th overall. He has 1st round talent, but his dedication and off the field problems could make him a very high boom-or-bust prospect. The Seahawks reached for the 2nd year in a row, but they believe in this guy and we will see in a couple of years. The addition of ILB Bobby Wagner could turn out good. They made headlines in drafting Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, who has been projected in the 4th and 5th round. Wilson will be a backup at best to Matt Flynn and will have to compete for that. Wilson has talent, but his size, 5'10-11, keeps him perhaps from being a starter in this league. Maybe he'll overcome this and has the desire and character to do so. It does seem to be a reach for taking a 3rd round flyer on a potential backup, but again, they like him. Of course, they could have taken Kirk Cousins.
I will also bang on the New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders for their lack of picks. The Saints did lose a 2nd round pick in the bounty gate scandal but also traded a 1st last year for running back Mark Ingram, who didn't produce quite like a 1st rounder. The Raiders were even worse as they did not pick until late in the 3rd round. They gave up a 1st for Carson Palmer, a 2nd to the Patriots, and forfeited the 1st 3rd for taking Terrell Pryor in the supplemental draft. What a mess they are. Notable undrafted free agent signings include Boise State QB Kellen Moore to the Detroit Lions, Houston QB Case Keenum with the Houston Texans, Arizona State OLB Vontaze Burfict with the Bengals, and running back Chris Polk to the Eagles, who might be the best of the undrafted free agent class.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Final Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck - QB - Stanford
The Colts pretty much told Luck he's their guy to replace Peyton Manning.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor
The Redskins did not trade three first round picks to move up into #2 for anything else but RGIII.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
Here's a twist, the Vikings have been linked to USC OT Matt Kalil for some time to protect Christian Ponder's blindside. But lately, there have been reports of Minnesota trading out of that pick or passing on Kalil altogether. Maybe Kalil, who went to USC, reminds the Vikings too much of Los Angeles where they are rumored to be heading if they don't get this stadium issue resolved. Head coach Leslie Frazier came out and said tackle isn't a difference maker and they need a difference maker. The Vikings need a cornerback and take the best in the draft in Morris Claiborne. The Vikings need a corner as they play in a division with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and his group of receivers, and even Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall twice a year.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The Cleveland Browns need so much help on offense and really need a play maker and difference maker. They won't take Ryan Tannehill here, there are reports of possibly wide receiver Justin Blackmon for Colt McCoy. But it appears Blackmon is not worth taking here so they go the best running back and offensive player at this spot in Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil - OT - USC
The Bucs could trade out of this pick to someone who wants Matt Kalil as they really liked Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. They could also just sit here and take Kalil, the best left tackle in the draft, as they need a tackle.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma State
The Rams have been linked to Richardson and Claiborne and both are off the board. There are reports that they want a defensive tackle, possibly Fletcher Cox. Even if Matt Kalil fell here it would be good for QB Sam Bradford, who was hit a ton last here and even missed 6 games because of injury. But the Rams take the best wide receiver in the draft in Justin Blackmon. This should give Bradford a number one receiver he's clearly lacked.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Jaguars could use a wide receiver for Blaine Gabbert, but Justin Blackmon is off the board even though Michael Floyd is on the board. But the Jags need a corner and really love Stephon Gilmore so he's the pick.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
This is a desperation pick perhaps but the Dolphins need a QB after whiffing on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith in the offseason. The Dolphins like Tannehill a lot and unless someone trades up to get him or even Miami trades up, he'll be the pick here. The Dolphins have Matt Moore, who is decent but not a franchise guy. Moore can start for a year while Tannehill waits a year or so as he is not ready to start now. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman recruited and coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi State
The Panthers need a defensive tackle and take the best in the draft in Fletcher Cox. Some reports of Dontari Poe has climbed up the draft boards because of a great workout but seems to not the player Cox is.
10. Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron - S - Alabama
The Bills need a wide receiver, offensive tackle, and cornerback. Michael Floyd is on the board and would be a great number two opposite Steve Johnson. But the Bills don't seem to value him as he was not scheduled to workout with the Bills prior to the draft. Offensive tackle is a big point as they have worked out Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin. But GM Buddy Nix seemed to dismiss that notion of taking a tackle as they want a difference maker at 10 and that Chris Hairston can be a starter and there is a bunch of tackle depth in this draft. So it appears that the secondary is the option. The Bills seem to really love both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Mark Barron. Gilmore has the slight edge otherwise its pretty even. Gilmore is off the board but he'd be the pick if he was on the board. So the Bills select Barron, who is a top-10 talent. As of today, I've been hearing an awful lot of Barron being the guy the Bills want.
11. Kansas City Chief: Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw - DE/OLB - Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin - OT - Stanford
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus - DE/OLB - Illinois
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Brandon Weeden - QB - Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn - OT/OG - Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler - OG - Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill - WR - Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots: Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC
28. Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy - DT - Michigan State
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower - LB - Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellan - LB - Boise State
32. New York Giants: Mike Adams - OT - Ohio State
The Colts pretty much told Luck he's their guy to replace Peyton Manning.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis): Robert Griffin III - QB - Baylor
The Redskins did not trade three first round picks to move up into #2 for anything else but RGIII.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Morris Claiborne - CB - LSU
Here's a twist, the Vikings have been linked to USC OT Matt Kalil for some time to protect Christian Ponder's blindside. But lately, there have been reports of Minnesota trading out of that pick or passing on Kalil altogether. Maybe Kalil, who went to USC, reminds the Vikings too much of Los Angeles where they are rumored to be heading if they don't get this stadium issue resolved. Head coach Leslie Frazier came out and said tackle isn't a difference maker and they need a difference maker. The Vikings need a cornerback and take the best in the draft in Morris Claiborne. The Vikings need a corner as they play in a division with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers and his group of receivers, and even Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall twice a year.
4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson - RB - Alabama
The Cleveland Browns need so much help on offense and really need a play maker and difference maker. They won't take Ryan Tannehill here, there are reports of possibly wide receiver Justin Blackmon for Colt McCoy. But it appears Blackmon is not worth taking here so they go the best running back and offensive player at this spot in Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt Kalil - OT - USC
The Bucs could trade out of this pick to someone who wants Matt Kalil as they really liked Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. They could also just sit here and take Kalil, the best left tackle in the draft, as they need a tackle.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Justin Blackmon - WR - Oklahoma State
The Rams have been linked to Richardson and Claiborne and both are off the board. There are reports that they want a defensive tackle, possibly Fletcher Cox. Even if Matt Kalil fell here it would be good for QB Sam Bradford, who was hit a ton last here and even missed 6 games because of injury. But the Rams take the best wide receiver in the draft in Justin Blackmon. This should give Bradford a number one receiver he's clearly lacked.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore - CB - South Carolina
The Jaguars could use a wide receiver for Blaine Gabbert, but Justin Blackmon is off the board even though Michael Floyd is on the board. But the Jags need a corner and really love Stephon Gilmore so he's the pick.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill - QB - Texas A&M
This is a desperation pick perhaps but the Dolphins need a QB after whiffing on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith in the offseason. The Dolphins like Tannehill a lot and unless someone trades up to get him or even Miami trades up, he'll be the pick here. The Dolphins have Matt Moore, who is decent but not a franchise guy. Moore can start for a year while Tannehill waits a year or so as he is not ready to start now. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman recruited and coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox - DT - Mississippi State
The Panthers need a defensive tackle and take the best in the draft in Fletcher Cox. Some reports of Dontari Poe has climbed up the draft boards because of a great workout but seems to not the player Cox is.
10. Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron - S - Alabama
The Bills need a wide receiver, offensive tackle, and cornerback. Michael Floyd is on the board and would be a great number two opposite Steve Johnson. But the Bills don't seem to value him as he was not scheduled to workout with the Bills prior to the draft. Offensive tackle is a big point as they have worked out Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin. But GM Buddy Nix seemed to dismiss that notion of taking a tackle as they want a difference maker at 10 and that Chris Hairston can be a starter and there is a bunch of tackle depth in this draft. So it appears that the secondary is the option. The Bills seem to really love both cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Mark Barron. Gilmore has the slight edge otherwise its pretty even. Gilmore is off the board but he'd be the pick if he was on the board. So the Bills select Barron, who is a top-10 talent. As of today, I've been hearing an awful lot of Barron being the guy the Bills want.
11. Kansas City Chief: Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram - DE/OLB - South Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe - DT - Memphis
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples - DE - North Carolina
16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw - DE/OLB - Alabama
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
18. San Diego Chargers: Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
19. Chicago Bears: Jonathan Martin - OT - Stanford
20. Tennessee Titans: Whitney Mercilus - DE/OLB - Illinois
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick - CB - Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Brandon Weeden - QB - Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn - OT/OG - Georgia
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kevin Zeitler - OG - Wisconsin
25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers - DT - LSU
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill - WR - Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots: Nick Perry - DE/OLB - USC
28. Green Bay Packers: Jerel Worthy - DT - Michigan State
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower - LB - Alabama
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener - TE - Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellan - LB - Boise State
32. New York Giants: Mike Adams - OT - Ohio State
Thursday, April 19, 2012
2012 NFL Mock Draft V 2.0
1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
No surprise, the Colts take the best player off the board first. They are clearly rebuilding as they cut ties with perhaps their greatest QB of all-time in Peyton Manning. Time to start all over as they had 13 great seasons and are hopefully looking for the same with Luck. Luck is considered by many to be the greatest QB prospect since the Colts took Manning in 1998. Lightning strikes twice here.
Other possible selections:
None
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
The Redskins made a huge deal with St. Louis to move to the #2 spot to take the second best QB in the draft in Robert Griffin III. Griffin has a tremendous arm and has great mobility and he seems to be the guy that will fit Mike Shanahan's system. The Redskins are in such a desperate need of a quarterback that it made so much sense to trade up into the #2 spot.
Other possible selections:
None
3. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings have been talking up about trading out of this pick or passing on Matt Kalil altogether to generate interest in a big trade to move up into this spot. They need a lot of help and they hope they can get a sweet deal for this pick. The Vikings need a corner back so they could take Morris Claiborne, who they are targeting at #3. But they need a left tackle bad to protect their QB Christian Ponder and they take the best tackle in the draft in Kalil.
Other possible selections:
Morris Claiborne - They need a corner bad and he's the best in the draft.
Justin Blackmon - There has been reports that they like Justin Blackmon and Christian Ponder needs a big time weapon.
Trade - There have been reports that Minnesota wants to trade out of this pick considering teams could be interested in Ryan Tannehill.
4. Cleveland Browns - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Cleveland Browns are a mess. They failed to beat out the Washington Redskins to move to St. Louis' #2 spot in order to take Robert Griffin III. The Browns need so much help, especially on offense. There's a possibility that they could take Ryan Tannehill here as they have a 2nd 1st round pick at #22. There's also a possibility that they could take the best running back in the draft in Alabama's Trent Richardson, who is an explosive back that can catch out of the backfield. He would be a perfect fit for their West Coast Offense and would be a tremendous help to QB Colt McCoy. But it appears that the Browns are very interested in drafting Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon as their team president has publicly stated he'd take Blackmon 4th overall. McCoy desperately needs a wide receiver and Blackmon could be the best in this class. Some think Blackmon isn't worthy of this high of a pick because he isn't particularly too tall nor too fast. But he was explosive enough and very productive the last two years at Oklahoma State to win back-to-back Biletnikoff Awards as the top wide receiver in the nation. Blackmon can separate, get open, go over the middle, and make tough catches.
Other possible selections:
Ryan Tannehill - The Browns could go the quarterback route if they think he is the guy and Colt McCoy isn't.
Trent Richardson - The Browns could go the smart pick by taking the best player on the board at this spot as they need a running back and the Browns need as many offensive weapons as possible.
Morris Claiborne - The Browns could take the top corner off the board and along with 2010 1st round pick Joe Haden could form the best young CB tandem in the league. But I believe they go offense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Tampa Bay had a very productive offseason with the signings of Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks, one of their best in sometime. Now they can add to that with a more than solid draft. They need a corner despite signing Eric Wright and re-signing veteran Ronde Barber, who they are moving to safety, and they are looking to unload the talented but very troubled Aqib Talib. They get the best corner in the draft in Morris Claiborne. Claiborne had a spectacular junior season after teammate Patrick Peterson moved to the NFL. Claiborne has great size and speed and can go against the best receivers in the league. Plus he can return kicks as well. The Bucs need as much help as they can in order to go against QBs such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton all in their division.
Other possible selections:
Trent Richardson - If Claiborne is off the board, the Bucs could go with Richardson, who is very explosive and can help out Josh Freeman. LeGarrette Blount is not a number one running back and new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run the ball.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
The Rams were the lowest scoring and lowest producing offense in the league last season. A lot of that is because of injuries to 2010 1st overall pick Sam Bradford, injuries and poor offensive line play, and a lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Bradford threw for only six touchdown passes as he only started 10 games because of injuries. Bradford needs weapons and help around him to help him succeed and that's what Jeff Fisher will do. With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Rams go Trent Richardson, a player they seem to have atop of their draft boards. Richardson has great speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield to give Bradford a legitimate offensive weapon. Plus running back Steven Jackson isn't getting any younger as well as those legs aren't really fresh as he has been overused during his 8-year run in St. Louis.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If Richardson is off the board and Blackmon is, the Rams will take him.
Morris Claiborne - If both Richardson and Blackmon are off the board, the Rams will go best player available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
With last year's first round pick QB Blaine Gabbert struggling mightily in his rookie season, new head coach Mike Mularkey, who is an offensive guy, should perhaps look at getting some talent around him. They did sign wide receivers Laurent Robinson from the Dallas Cowboys and veteran Lee Evans. Gabbert struggled badly last year as he was clearly not ready to start, but the Jags had no other choice but to throw him to the lions. He was dead last in QB Rating and yards per attempt and next-to-last in completion percentage among qualified leaders. Gabbert drew criticism as he also struggled in the pocket even without any pressure at times. In his defense, he had no one to throw to except for the league's leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew. So wide receiver should be a target even though Justin Blackmon is off the board and Michael Floyd is available. The Jags could take a receiver in the 2nd round as there are some who are NFL ready. But the Jags covet the best defensive end prospect in the draft in South Carolina's Melvin Ingram. The team re-signed Jeremy Mincey and together with Ingram, the two would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other possible selections:
Justin Blackmon - If he is still on the board, the Jags will probably not pass him up.
Michael Floyd - He can be an option as they can use a big wideout for Blaine Gabbert.
Quinton Coples - I've seen him mocked here and is a very talented pass rusher. But Coples has some character and work ethic flaws that are seeing him drop to the mid-to-late first round.
8. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Unless the Dolphins or some other team like Kanas City trades up to say #3, Miami takes its QB right in this spot at #8 in Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is considered to be the 3rd rated QB in this year's draft behind only Luck and Griffin. Miami has whiffed on getting a QB this offseason including Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, and even Alex Smith. They still have Matt Moore is a dependable starter, but not a long-term answer. Tannehill would need to sit at least a year and Moore is capable for starting now. Plus Miami's offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who recruited Tannehill to Texas A&M and was his head coach there all four years.
Other possible selections:
Melvin Ingram - If he is available and Tannehill isn't, he will be the pick because he and Cameron Wake would make a great pass rushing duo.
Riley Reiff - I've heard Joe Philibin has ties to the University of Iowa and likes Reiff. Reiff is most likely a right tackle in this league and pair him with Jake Long and you possibly have two great tackles.
Michael Floyd - The Dolphins need a big time wide receiver especially after they traded Brandon Marshall to the Bears.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers need a lot of help on defense like a defensive tackle and cornerback. They also could use another wide receiver to start opposite Steve Smith, who signed a new three-year deal but will turn 33, and give Cam Newton another option to throw to. Michael Floyd is definitely an option, but Ron Rivera wants build a defense so he goes with defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cox is without a doubt a top-10 pick and can start right away, giving the Panthers great value at #9.
Other possible selections:
Michael Floyd - Floyd gives Cam Newton a viable #2 wide receiver. But there are plenty of options in the second round as this is a pretty deep wide receiver draft in the first few rounds.
Dontari Poe - I've seen him here in several mock drafts at DT. He's very athletically gifted, but he will be a big reach at #9, so the better pick is Cox.
Stephon Gilmore - The Panthers desperately need a QB especially facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan twice a year. Gilmore is steadily climbing the charts because of his size and speed.
10. Buffalo Bills - Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
The Bills have several needs; left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Considering the Bills signed the biggest free agent not named Peyton Manning in defensive end Mario Williams along with defensive end Mark Anderson, you would think the Bills' first round pick should be on the offensive side. They need a left tackle to replace Demetress Bell, who the Bills did not re-sign. There have been links to the Bills taking either Riley Reiff or Stanford's Jonathan Martin. Neither guy seem to be a tackle worth taking at 10. The Bills have worked out Georgia's Cordy Glenn, who they seem to like a lot even though Glenn was a guard for his first three years before switching to left tackle last year. Glenn more than held his own at left tackle in the premier conference in college football, the SEC. Glenn has the size and ability to be a left tackle, but many feel he is more of a guard. If the Bills feel that way, he won't be the pick. The Bills need another wide receiver opposite Stevie Johnson as Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Naaman Roosevelt are no where close to being a #2. Marcus Easley has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp, but has yet to see the field for an NFL game after an injury and illness kept him from playing the last two years. Notre Dame's Michael Floyd is on the board and with his size and hands would compliment Johnson very well. But I don't think the Bills are interested as he was not scheduled to work out with the Bills and it seems when it comes to 1st and 2nd round picks that Buddy Nix drafts guys who worked out with the team. You can cross him and Reiff off the list. I think they are more highly on Justin Blackmon, if he were to fall. Plus this is a very deep wide receiver draft they can get in the 2nd or 3rd round such as LSU's Reuben Randle and Appalachian State's Brian Quick. Corner is such a huge need defensively as the Bills have Drayton Florence, who is not a shutdown corner and is getting up there in age, Leodis McKelvin, who has widely disappointed in 4 years despite his athleticism, veteran Terrence McGee, who has been plagued with injuries the past few years and is 31, and last year's draft picks Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers, who have shown flashes of brilliance as rookies but are inexperienced and raw. That's why I think the Bills will draft a corner at 10 in South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has climbed the charts with his speed, his ability to keep up and defend against receivers, and his size. There's a possibility Gilmore might not even be here at 10, but he is on this board and the Bills take him. Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick is a possibility as well.
Other possible selections:
Cordy Glenn - the Bills need a left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick as well as give him more time to be able to throw down the field for bigger plays.
Riley Reiff and Michael Floyd - Neither men worked out for the Bills and I really don't think Buddy Nix will take either unless he didn't need to see either man up close.
Dre Kirkpatrick - If Gilmore is off the board, then the Bills could very well take Kirkpatrick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
13. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
14. Dallas Cowboys - Mark Barron, S, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
16. New York Jets - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland) - Cordy Glenn, OT/OG, Georgia
18. San Diego Chargers - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta) - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State
The Browns take Justin Blackmon and take the guy who threw to Blackmon the past two years in 28-year-old Brandon Weeden. That's right, he's 28-years-old (will be 29 during the season). He spent five seasons playing baseball before going to Oklahoma State to become their quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions - Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
25. Denver Broncos - Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
26. Houston Texans - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State
28. Green Bay Packers - Nick Perry, DE, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - Peter Conz, C, Wisconsin
30. San Francisco 49ers - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
31. New England Patriots - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
32. New York Giants - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Five Reasons Why I Wouldn't Want Ryan Tannehill
I've already written about the top two quarterback prospects in the draft: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/andrew-luck-vs-rg3.html). Both those men are slam dunk picks. The number three quarterback prospect in this year's draft is Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill could anywhere from #3 (with a team possibly trading up with Minnesota) to about #11 or #12. He does have great size, mobility, and arm strength. I'll tell you why I'm not buying the hype on Tannehill even though many are. Here are the five reasons why I wouldn't want Tannehill:
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
1. Lack of Starting Experience - He started only 19 games as a quarterback during his four years at Texas A&M and he did not start until the middle of his junior season. Tannehill was initially a wide receiver until he took over the starting job during his junior year. Guys like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III started three years and guys like Peyton and Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers started four years. Sure Cam Newton started only 14 games as a junior at Auburn in 2010 when he won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he also started a year at Blinn Junior College and led them to a National Championship as well. Plus Newton was recruited to be a quarterback, not a running back or wide receiver. I generally want my QB to have started at least three years, possibly two full seasons if there is a ton of success and he looks like he can start in the NFL immediately, like Luck after his redshirt sophomore year.
2. Wasn't Recruited Primarily as a Starting Quarterback - As mentioned above, Tannehill was primarily recruited and played as a wide receiver. He did play some at QB, but was mostly a wide receiver. I'm sorry but I want my QB to have been recruited and play primarily as a QB. It's the most important position in football and I want my guy to spend all his time learning to be a QB, not another position.
3. Hands - Tannehill has small hands for a quarterback. This means that he has a hard time gripping the ball, which leads to him fumbling the ball. He's fumbled a number of times in college. If he can't hold onto the ball while trying to make a play or fumbles the snap, then the opposing defenses are going to eat him alive and it will hurt his team in the battle for field position.
4. Intangibles - Tannehill has good size (6'4 220 lbs), a strong arm, and is very mobile. He also put up good numbers at Texas A&M such as completing 62.5% of his passes, 42 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a 134.2 QB rating. But he lacks those certain intangibles. For instance, he has a strong arm, but he lacks some zip on his ball when he tries to throw deep as it lands about a yard or two short of his intended target. Now throwing the ball 50 yards down the field isn't everything, but it's still very important. He's also admitted that he has trouble finding the safeties when throwing down the field which results into an interception. What? Are you kidding me? I do not want my franchise guy to say or think stuff like that.
I guarantee you Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and probably even Andrew Luck know where the safety is at all times and can throw it where only the receiver can get and where the safety can't. Sorry, Tannehill is not a franchise QB to me. He's also shown at times last year he was not able to bring his team from behind in the final two minutes or could not close out a game while leading, which led to the other team coming back to win.
5. Lack of Success Against Big Time Competition - Even though Tannehill has a pretty good record overall as a starter at 12-7, some of it is diluted. He is a very fast starter as he went 5-0 in his first five starts before falling to 7-7 over his last 14 starts. Even his senior year, Texas A&M was a top-10 team early on and started 5-2, only to lose four of their last six games to finish a disappointing 7-6. So it appears that defenses figure him out over a course of time. What do you think NFL defenses will do with much better, faster, and stronger athletes and better defensive coaches will do with time to prepare and figure him out?
In addition to this, I went and looked back at his toughest competition he faced the last two years, teams with the most NFL talent on their defense. In eight games against Oklahoma (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas (twice), Nebraska, LSU, and Arkansas, Tannehill completed just 55.8% of his passes with a woeful 5.9 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The numbers don't lie. I'm not saying that all of those teams have elite NFL talent, but all of them have at least close to NFL talent as opposed to the rest of the competition he faced. If he struggled against these schools, what will he do against elite NFL defenders with very smart defensive coaches game planning? My answer, not too good.
Yea he creamed Baylor with RGIII starting, but Baylor has no NFL talent on their defense. He is clearly not ready to start right away, he'll need a year or so to start. Unfortunately, if I take a quarterback as high as Tannehill is projected in the top-10, I need him to be able to start right away. Sure, guys like Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers sat the first couple of years, but that's because they were behind elite, Super Bowl quarterbacks. But both men were able to start day 1, they were just in a great position. Tannehill won't be so lucky and won't be behind an elite QB as either he'll be ineffective or injured and you might have to throw Tannehill in there.
Now I would not take Tannehill if I were drafting due to the reasons above. Of course I'm not a GM or scout but I like to think I know somewhat what I am talking about. I've seen "gimmicky" QBs in the NFL not work out so well. Someone like Tim Tebow is "gimmicky" but he at least started at QB for four years. Tannehill only started for a year-and-a-half. Despite playing for four years, he doesn't have enough experience to start for a franchise right away whoever drafts him. That being said, I don't think he'll be a bust, he could be a serviceable QB if he finds the right coach and offensive system tailored to his style. The reason why I don't think he will be a bust is because he has some first round talent and I wrote a blog earlier about first round QBs drafted since 2004 and its about an 80% success rate for guys to be elite or at least serviceable. Only 20% are busts (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-drafted-in-first-round.html).
That's why teams could possibly trade up to as high as third overall to take him because you need to find a franchise QB and the only way to do so is to find them in the first round of the NFL Draft. QB values rise and are probably overrated because of the need for a franchise QB more than any other position in football. He is regarded as the third best QB behind only Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Tannehill was originally slated to be an early 2nd, possibly late 1st before he rocketed up the charts because of his workout and combine and the teams in need of a QB. I'd take him maybe at the end of the 1st round or possibly 2nd, but the success of 2nd round QBs is very slim (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html).
Basically, I would not take him unless it was absolutely necessary. It's possible Cleveland could take him at 4, or Miami at 8 or Kansas City at 11, unless someone offers Minnesota a sweet deal to move ahead of these teams. The other thing as to why QBs are more highly rated or overrated is because there is a rookie wage scale. No longer do you have to give a QB $30-40 million and worry about him being a huge bust and setting your franchise back many years. More teams are willing to take a risk on a QB higher than before. Look at last year for example, the first year of the rookie wage scale. Obviously Cam Newton was first overall even though some questioned whether he should have gone first overall or not. Carolina needed a QB bad they took him and it looks like a home run. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 8, 10, and 12 respectively even though they were considered to be mid-to-late 1st round picks, even 2nd round.
I wouldn't be overall shocked though if he were a bust, but I don't think he will. He just won't be elite. Maybe he could be like Tim Tebow in terms of having a coach and offensive system that is more tailored to him. He is more physically gifted and has a better arm than Tebow does. Tannehill just won't be Tom Brady, Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, or Matthew Stafford. He won't even be Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. Maybe he could turn out somewhat like Tony Romo, who is very athletically gifted with a great arm and extremely mobile. Romo was not drafted and took several years to work on him to get him up to speed. But Romo was again a starting QB in college. Athleticism is important and that's Tannehill's greatest strength. But I think it can be overrated too. Sure Rodgers, Romo, and Newton are great athletes as well as quarterbacks. But a lot of QBs that are great athletes don't make it in this league as a starting QB. Also, the best QBs: Brady, Brees, and the Mannings aren't the greatest athletes. They are very smart, cerebral in their approach, and meticulous in the way they pay attention to details as well as lead the team on their backs and control the way the game is being played.
So in conclusion, I would not draft Ryan Tannehill because I believe he won't be a franchise QB. I'm not saying he's a bust because I think there's a place for him in this league. But just don't think of him as that elite guy who leads you to multiple Super Bowls. Not happening.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Andrew Luck vs. RG3
This year's NFL Draft will have the two best quarterbacks in college football going 1st and 2nd: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Both men have had two great careers at Stanford and Baylor respectively. Both schools are very highly academic and neither school in recent years had much success in football. That was until these two men came along and totally changed their fortunes around. See just because you are smart, does not mean you can't be athletically gifted. These are different breeds of athletes who make teams and talent around them better. I think it is one thing if both these QBs went to primarily football schools like USC, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan, and Florida. But they choose schools that were smaller and were more for shall I say, the academically gifted. They really have not had much success in football. You don't go to Stanford and Baylor primarily for football. Sure both these men went for a great education, but both are capable of starting in the NFL and both will drafted 1 and 2. Both these men have the intelligence to make great decisions on and off the field and their physical talents make them the stars that they are. I will show you both men similarities and differences and which one is worth drafting 1st overall.
As I mentioned, Luck went to Stanford. Another high profile QB went to Stanford, that was John Elway. Another former Super Bowl winning QB who also won the Heisman Trophy went there as well, that was Jim Plunkett. But in recent years, Stanford had not been the model for success in college football. Generally, they finished near or at the bottom of the Pac-12. Then Jim Harbaugh came along in 2007 and helped change the fortunes around and even beat mighty USC twice in his first three years there. Harbaugh recruited Luck, who was a four-star recruit. Luck was a son of a former NFL QB in Oliver Luck. Luck spent his early childhood in London, England and Frankfurt, Germany, where his father was a general manager of two teams in the World League of American Football, before Oliver became the president of the league. Then the family came back to the U.S., where Oliver ran his own business in Houston. Luck was a stellar QB in high school and was brilliant, as he was co-valedictorian of his class in 2008.
Luck redshirted his freshman year in 2008 before earning the starting job as a redshirt freshman in 2009. Despite playing in a run-oriented offense behind Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency and was second in total offense. Luck led the Cardinal to victories over top-10 teams Oregon and USC and led Stanford to its first bowl game since 2001. Luck was one of the top players in college football in 2010 as he led Stanford to a 12-1 record, a #4 ranking in the final AP Poll, and an Orange Bowl win. Luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency, passing yards, total offense, and passing touchdowns as he was named Pac-10 Player of the Year. Luck was runner-up to Cam Newton in voting for the Heisman Trophy. He also won Orange Bowl MVP after throwing 4 touchdowns in a 40-12 rout over Virginia Tech. Luck was the unanimous #1 overall pick going into the 2011 NFL Draft if he came out. Even though his head coach Jim Harbaugh left to go to the NFL, Luck decided to stay for his redshirt junior season and finish his degree.
Luck had a new head coach in David Shaw, who was Luck's offensive coordinator. Shaw helped mold Luck into the QB he is and the Cardinal's offense was one of the highest scoring in the NCAA. Luck finished his junior season by breaking many school and conference passing records and was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year for the second year in a row. He guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 record, a #7 ranking in the final AP Poll, and a second straight berth in a BCS Bowl Game, where they lost to Oklahoma State. Luck was again runner-up for the Heisman for the second straight year. Luck declared for the NFL Draft after the season and is considered to be the #1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. Luck is considered to be the best quarterback prospect to come out since Peyton Manning in 1998. Some say he is the best since John Elway in 1983. Luck has a cerebral approach to the game as he can make all the throws necessary, throwing balls into tight windows where only the receiver can catch those, has a strong arm, can throw deep, is very accurate, and he is also very mobile as he broke Elway's single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback as he is very athletically gifted.
Griffin was the one who beat Luck for the Heisman Trophy last season. Griffin went to Baylor after originally committing to play for Houston under head coach Art Briles, but switched to Baylor after Briles decided to go to Baylor. Griffin was a three-sport star athlete in football, basketball, and track in high school. He was a sensational dual-threat quarterback as well as a track star as was named to the All-USA Track and Field team as a sprinter/hurdler. Griffin graduated a semester early from high school after serving as president and graduated seventh in his class so he can join the Baylor track team and get ready to play QB. Griffin started 11 of the 12 games for Baylor in 2008 as a true freshman and was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year. Despite finishing 4-8, Baylor was much more improved with Griffin under center. Griffin threw for 2,091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions and also rushed for 843 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Griffin also led Baylor to a 41-21 upset victory over Texas A&M. Griffin tore his ACL in the third game in 2009, ending his season as he used a medical redshirt for the rest of the season to give him another year of college eligibility. Griffin came back healthy for 2010 and guided Baylor to its first bowl game since 1994.
Griffin started the 2011 season on a tear as he guided Baylor to an upset win over then #15 TCU as he completed nearly 78% of his passes for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns. After struggling in October where they lost 3 of 4 games to conference rivals Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, Baylor rebounded as Griffin led the Bears to five straight wins to close out the season. Griffin soon showcased his Heisman moments. Against Kansas, Griffin led Baylor from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to a 31-30 overtime win. Then against #5 Oklahoma, Griffin threw a highlight 34-yard touchdown pass with just 8 seconds left to win, 45-38. Then Baylor ended the regular season by beating Texas Tech 66-42 and #22 Texas 48-24 to finish 9-3, 6-3 in Big 12 play. As a result, Griffin became the first player from Baylor to win the Heisman Trophy. He was definitely the most electrifying player in college football. It just so happened that Baylor played the most spectacular Alamo Bowl and one of the most exciting bowl games ever against Washington. Baylor fell behind 49-39 lead in the 3rd quarter, then outscored them 28-7 the rest of the game to win 67-56. Griffin finished the season ranked second in the nation in passing efficiency at 189.5 along with 4,293 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, just six interceptions, 72.4 completion %, 10.7 yards per attempt, 699 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Baylor finished 10-3 and ranked 13th in the final AP Poll, the highest ranking for Baylor in 25 years.
Both Luck and Griffin have many similarities that make them great. Both are very bright, both went to schools that are more intellectual and less to do with football and both took those schools to heights where they haven't been to in a long time, both have tremendous arms, both are extremely accurate, both do not turn the ball over or make a lot of mistakes and bad throws, both throw from the pocket, and both are extremely mobile, although Griffin is faster. The differences are size where Luck is a little taller and weighs a little more and also the talent around them where Griffin had more offensive talent around him than Luck did and I think Luck did more with less. That doesn't mean Griffin can't do well without great talent around him and its not like he had a tremendous defense and bailed them out many times, but Luck showed he can lead a team without much offensive talent and make them better.
If I can compare Luck with NFL QBs I'd say he's a lot like John Elway because they are both very mobile and athletic and smart and have a strong arm. He's also quite like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and even Eli Manning in terms of intelligence and ability to lead teams and be able to call plays and audible at the line of scrimmage. Griffin's accuracy especially down the field, height, and intelligence is reminiscent of Drew Brees. His ability to move around and throw on the run and his ability to not turn the ball over reminds me of Aaron Rodgers while his overall mobility reminds me of Cam Newton. As you can tell, there is a lot of qualities in both of these men that can make them elite QBs in the NFL. I'm not saying they will be these guys, but if they are anything close they will be great NFL QBs who could lead their respective teams to the Super Bowl.
If I were to pick one of these guys first overall, it would be Luck just because I've seen more of him the last two years and I think he is the slam dunk pick. Griffin is not a bad consolation prize and has tremendous upside that could maybe even surpass Luck. But I want the stability of what Luck brings and has brought the last few years. But Griffin is a close second to Luck and its not at all like Manning-Leaf in 98. Griffin will be very good too.
As I mentioned, Luck went to Stanford. Another high profile QB went to Stanford, that was John Elway. Another former Super Bowl winning QB who also won the Heisman Trophy went there as well, that was Jim Plunkett. But in recent years, Stanford had not been the model for success in college football. Generally, they finished near or at the bottom of the Pac-12. Then Jim Harbaugh came along in 2007 and helped change the fortunes around and even beat mighty USC twice in his first three years there. Harbaugh recruited Luck, who was a four-star recruit. Luck was a son of a former NFL QB in Oliver Luck. Luck spent his early childhood in London, England and Frankfurt, Germany, where his father was a general manager of two teams in the World League of American Football, before Oliver became the president of the league. Then the family came back to the U.S., where Oliver ran his own business in Houston. Luck was a stellar QB in high school and was brilliant, as he was co-valedictorian of his class in 2008.
Luck redshirted his freshman year in 2008 before earning the starting job as a redshirt freshman in 2009. Despite playing in a run-oriented offense behind Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart, luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency and was second in total offense. Luck led the Cardinal to victories over top-10 teams Oregon and USC and led Stanford to its first bowl game since 2001. Luck was one of the top players in college football in 2010 as he led Stanford to a 12-1 record, a #4 ranking in the final AP Poll, and an Orange Bowl win. Luck led the Pac-10 in passing efficiency, passing yards, total offense, and passing touchdowns as he was named Pac-10 Player of the Year. Luck was runner-up to Cam Newton in voting for the Heisman Trophy. He also won Orange Bowl MVP after throwing 4 touchdowns in a 40-12 rout over Virginia Tech. Luck was the unanimous #1 overall pick going into the 2011 NFL Draft if he came out. Even though his head coach Jim Harbaugh left to go to the NFL, Luck decided to stay for his redshirt junior season and finish his degree.
Luck had a new head coach in David Shaw, who was Luck's offensive coordinator. Shaw helped mold Luck into the QB he is and the Cardinal's offense was one of the highest scoring in the NCAA. Luck finished his junior season by breaking many school and conference passing records and was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year for the second year in a row. He guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 record, a #7 ranking in the final AP Poll, and a second straight berth in a BCS Bowl Game, where they lost to Oklahoma State. Luck was again runner-up for the Heisman for the second straight year. Luck declared for the NFL Draft after the season and is considered to be the #1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. Luck is considered to be the best quarterback prospect to come out since Peyton Manning in 1998. Some say he is the best since John Elway in 1983. Luck has a cerebral approach to the game as he can make all the throws necessary, throwing balls into tight windows where only the receiver can catch those, has a strong arm, can throw deep, is very accurate, and he is also very mobile as he broke Elway's single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback as he is very athletically gifted.
Griffin was the one who beat Luck for the Heisman Trophy last season. Griffin went to Baylor after originally committing to play for Houston under head coach Art Briles, but switched to Baylor after Briles decided to go to Baylor. Griffin was a three-sport star athlete in football, basketball, and track in high school. He was a sensational dual-threat quarterback as well as a track star as was named to the All-USA Track and Field team as a sprinter/hurdler. Griffin graduated a semester early from high school after serving as president and graduated seventh in his class so he can join the Baylor track team and get ready to play QB. Griffin started 11 of the 12 games for Baylor in 2008 as a true freshman and was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year. Despite finishing 4-8, Baylor was much more improved with Griffin under center. Griffin threw for 2,091 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions and also rushed for 843 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Griffin also led Baylor to a 41-21 upset victory over Texas A&M. Griffin tore his ACL in the third game in 2009, ending his season as he used a medical redshirt for the rest of the season to give him another year of college eligibility. Griffin came back healthy for 2010 and guided Baylor to its first bowl game since 1994.
Griffin started the 2011 season on a tear as he guided Baylor to an upset win over then #15 TCU as he completed nearly 78% of his passes for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns. After struggling in October where they lost 3 of 4 games to conference rivals Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, Baylor rebounded as Griffin led the Bears to five straight wins to close out the season. Griffin soon showcased his Heisman moments. Against Kansas, Griffin led Baylor from a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to a 31-30 overtime win. Then against #5 Oklahoma, Griffin threw a highlight 34-yard touchdown pass with just 8 seconds left to win, 45-38. Then Baylor ended the regular season by beating Texas Tech 66-42 and #22 Texas 48-24 to finish 9-3, 6-3 in Big 12 play. As a result, Griffin became the first player from Baylor to win the Heisman Trophy. He was definitely the most electrifying player in college football. It just so happened that Baylor played the most spectacular Alamo Bowl and one of the most exciting bowl games ever against Washington. Baylor fell behind 49-39 lead in the 3rd quarter, then outscored them 28-7 the rest of the game to win 67-56. Griffin finished the season ranked second in the nation in passing efficiency at 189.5 along with 4,293 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, just six interceptions, 72.4 completion %, 10.7 yards per attempt, 699 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Baylor finished 10-3 and ranked 13th in the final AP Poll, the highest ranking for Baylor in 25 years.
Both Luck and Griffin have many similarities that make them great. Both are very bright, both went to schools that are more intellectual and less to do with football and both took those schools to heights where they haven't been to in a long time, both have tremendous arms, both are extremely accurate, both do not turn the ball over or make a lot of mistakes and bad throws, both throw from the pocket, and both are extremely mobile, although Griffin is faster. The differences are size where Luck is a little taller and weighs a little more and also the talent around them where Griffin had more offensive talent around him than Luck did and I think Luck did more with less. That doesn't mean Griffin can't do well without great talent around him and its not like he had a tremendous defense and bailed them out many times, but Luck showed he can lead a team without much offensive talent and make them better.
If I can compare Luck with NFL QBs I'd say he's a lot like John Elway because they are both very mobile and athletic and smart and have a strong arm. He's also quite like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and even Eli Manning in terms of intelligence and ability to lead teams and be able to call plays and audible at the line of scrimmage. Griffin's accuracy especially down the field, height, and intelligence is reminiscent of Drew Brees. His ability to move around and throw on the run and his ability to not turn the ball over reminds me of Aaron Rodgers while his overall mobility reminds me of Cam Newton. As you can tell, there is a lot of qualities in both of these men that can make them elite QBs in the NFL. I'm not saying they will be these guys, but if they are anything close they will be great NFL QBs who could lead their respective teams to the Super Bowl.
If I were to pick one of these guys first overall, it would be Luck just because I've seen more of him the last two years and I think he is the slam dunk pick. Griffin is not a bad consolation prize and has tremendous upside that could maybe even surpass Luck. But I want the stability of what Luck brings and has brought the last few years. But Griffin is a close second to Luck and its not at all like Manning-Leaf in 98. Griffin will be very good too.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round Since 2004
Generally there has been a myth that you should not take a quarterback high or in the first round because if you miss on it, it will set your franchise back for many years. That has been true because first round quarterbacks in years past was a little something of a crapshoot. Its been a 50-50 success-bust ratio, maybe 51-49. But since 2004 when the rules changed to make the game more in favor of quarterbacks, the success rate has jumped up exponentially. Between 2004 and 2010, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round. Out of those 19, 15 have been either elite or serviceable. 4 have been busts which translates to nearly 80% success rate, which means 4 out of every 5 quarterbacks taken in the first round are successes. Before that, it was about 50-50. 80% is outstanding when it comes to selecting the game's most important position. Success rates of quarterbacks drafted each round after shrinks significantly. Check out my last blog about QBs taken in the 2nd and 3rd round (http://buffalosportsbeat.blogspot.com/2012/04/quarterbacks-taken-in-2nd-and-3rd-round.html)
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
2004 was the first year they changed the rules which strictly enforced pass interference and defensive holding as well as introducing the new illegal contact rule, which prohibited a cornerback form making any contact with a wide receiver more than five yards down the field. These rules were set in place in favor of the quarterback to open up the passing game. Maybe some of the quarterbacks that were taken before 2004 who were busts might have been somewhat serviceable with the current rules in place. QBs aren't even allowed to be hit after they throw the football, which results in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty. This alters the defensive players to be as aggressive as they were before. Same with the corners and safeties, who used to be able to manhandle receivers all the way down the field until the pass was thrown their way. Now, you can't touch the receiver past five yards from the line of scrimmage, which results in more receivers being open. It makes so much sense to have a great QB. You can't win a Super Bowl without an elite, franchise quarterback. And you don't get that franchise quarterback nowadays without taking them in the first round, preferably in the top-10. The 2004 Quarterback class was the best since 1983 as it produced Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were drafted in the first round.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all Super Bowl winning, elite, future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford are all good to great and have made the playoffs and the Pro Bowl. Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Tim Tebow are all serviceable in this league. Smith was a bust until this past year when he got a great coach in Jim Harbaugh along with a great defense carried them to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Sanchez hasn't been great but let the Jets to the AFC Championship Game in his first two years. Young has a pretty good record as a starter (31-19) despite having some flaws in the passing game and an attitude problem. Tebow guided the Broncos to the playoffs and beat the Steelers in the first round. Freeman and Bradford both had some glimpses of success and failure. Everyone except for Freeman and Bradford led their teams to a playoff appearance at least once. Freeman was 10-6 two years ago. Campbell would have led the Raiders to the playoffs this year if he wasn't hurt.
The four busts are JP Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, and Brad Quinn. All but Russell are still in the league as backups. Russell has been one of the biggest busts in NFL history, being released after just three seasons. Russell finished with a woeful 7-18 record, 52.1 completion percentage, a 18-to-23 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a 65.2 rating. Russell, despite a very strong arm, was overweight, did not have the right mechanics, was slow, could not make many throws, and had a poor work ethic. Russell and Quinn were the only two QB first round picks in 2007. The 2007 QB draft class was one of the worst in recent memory. None of the QBs drafted that year remain with the team that drafted them or are out of the league altogether.
Since 2007, the first round QB picks have been pretty good. Even last year, 1st overall pick Cam Newton looks to be a great QB as he broke many rookie QB records, including most yards in a game by a rookie and most yards in a single season for a rookie. The other three first round QBs: Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance on a bad Minnesota Vikings team. Blaine Gabbert was awful in Jacksonville. Jake Locker only played a few games sitting behind Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, and he actually played quite well in the games he played in. This year's draft class will see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III go 1-2. Ryan Tannehill is projected to go somewhere in the top-10, but is a bit of a project even though he has the talent because he was a wide receiver before being converted into a full-time QB in his junior year. 28-year-old Brandon Weeden could go late in the first round. With last year's rookie wage scale, it is very likely to see 4-5 QBs go in the first round because the demand for a franchise QB is very high. Teams don't have to worry about wasting $30-40 million on taking a chance on a guy anymore. QBs who were projected to go in the 2nd round now get drafted into the early-mid first round.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Quarterbacks Taken in the 2nd and 3rd Round Since 1992
For all those out there who say "Don't draft this guy in the 1st round. Take this guy if he's available in the 2nd round or that guy in the 3rd round," I am here to show everyone the myth of taking a quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round is a good thing to do as it is completely the opposite. Since 1992, the year after Super Bowl winning and former three-time NFL MVP Brett Favre was taken in the 2nd round, 47 quarterbacks were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Out of those 47 picks, 5 of those have played in the Pro Bowl. Those 5 guys are Kordell Stewart, Jake Plummer, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub (the only 3rd rounder on this list), and Andy Dalton. Dalton was only one to do it in his rookie year as he is only entering his second year. What an accomplishment. That's a whopping 10% success rate. If you don't count Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Mallett, who were both drafted last year and did not see the field, it's still only 11% success.
Of the five guys listed above, four of them started a playoff game, Schaub helped guide the Texans to the playoffs last year, but was hurt and did not play in the playoffs. Brees is the only one to start and win a Super Bowl. Stewart was only good for two of his 10 years as he only flourished with Chan Gailey and Mike Mularkey as offensive coordinators, who knew how to use him. Plummer led the Arizona Cardinals to the playoffs in his sophomore year, but struggled at times throwing interceptions on some bad Cardinals teams. He flourished under Mike Shanahan in Denver, leading them to the playoffs from 2003-2005, including an appearance in the 2005 AFC Championship Game before he was released and retired in 2007.
Dalton has been terrific as a rookie. He set all kinds of records at TCU and was a winner especially after going 13-0 and winning the Rose Bowl as a senior. He was drafted in the 2nd round by the Cincinnati Bengals, not because of his orange hair which fits the color of their helmets. Dalton was not cast into an ideal situation as the Bengals have been one of the league's laughing stocks and one of the most dysfunctional franchises. They finished 4-12 the year before and lost wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Carson Palmer "retired" and Dalton was left by himself to be the starter. Sure they had AJ Green, but not much was expected to do much, especially considering he was a rookie 2nd round pick, which hardly translates into success, and play in a division that sees you play the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens twice a year. Dalton shocked many in the league as he threw for 3,398 yards and 20 touchdowns and led the Bengals to a playoff birth with a 9-7 record. According to the cincinnatibengals.com website, Dalton is the first non first round quarterback to start all 16 games for his team and make the playoffs. Dalton played much like a first rounder as he not only protected the ball very well and made a lot of plays for his team and had four come-from-behind wins on the season. Dalton is one of five rookie QBs to throw for over 3,000 yards as well as 20 touchdowns. He was named Rookie of the Month for October. He made the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
In years past, first round picks were 50-50. Now it's an even higher success rate. The 2nd round is about 10% and the 3rd round is probably 5-8% success and it continues to drop all the way to round 7. So those who want a certain quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round, it's about a 90-10 failure to success rate. Even in years before Favre was drafted in 1991, 2nd and 3rd round QBs were not successful, maybe a little more than the last 20 years. Quarterback is such a premium position that teams take them high in the 1st round. Those who last into the 2nd or 3rd round or later, the success continues to go down as the talent continues to go down. They are not physically able or mentally able or both to be a franchise or serviceable QB at best. Many of these 2nd and 3rd round picks in the last 20 years aren't even good enough to be a backup in this league as they are quickly out of the league within 5 years. The worst part is, since 2004, the rules were tailored to the quarterback and even many of these guys since 2004 can even hold a clipboard in the NFL. You want an elite, franchise, and Super Bowl winning quarterback, you take him in the 1st round, preferably in the top-10. There are obviously some exceptions to the rule. Tom Brady drafted 6th round, 199th overall in 2000, Kurt Warner, undrafted out of 1-AA Northern Iowa and played in the Arena League and NFL Europe before coming into the NFL, have won Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVPs. They are the exception not the rule. Even Tony Romo is a top-10 quarterback and was undrafted and went to a Division 1-AA school.
Look at some of the names taken in the 2nd and 3rd round that were failures in this league: Billy Joe "I did not read the playbook" Hobert, Todd Collins (well if you count the fact he was a backup but in the league for about 13 seasons and even led the Redskins to the playoffs as a backup in 07, then I guess he's somewhat of a success but still not great), Tony Banks, Charlie Batch (believe it or not, still in the league and along with Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselbeck are the only quarterbacks still in the league from the 1998 NFL Draft), Brian Griese (never lived up to the hype of being Hall of Fame Bob Griese's son and winning a national championship at Michigan), Shaun King, Giovanni Carmazzi (did not play a single snap in the regular season, wouldn't the 49ers been smart to have taken Tom Brady instead),Chris Redman (backing up Matt Ryan in Atlanta), Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Josh McCown, Chris Simms (another son of a Hall of Famer who did not amount to much), Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Kevin Kolb (has not proven himself in Philadelphia or Arizona), John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White (who was the typical "Wildcat" QB who was drafted by the team that came up with that offense and cut him after only a year because he could not cut it in the NFL), Jimmy Clausen, and Colt McCoy. Not a lot of Hall of Famers there LOL.
That's what's your 2nd and 3rd round picks look like. Every squirrel finds a nut once in a while. That's why they are drafted not in the 1st round. The dropoff between the 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th best QB generally results in a pretty significant dropoff. So when you think you want someone in the 2nd or 3rd or even later rounds because you want that Brady or Brees or even Favre, remember the list of the players above plus the others you probably never heard of before. For ever Brees, there's 10 of Quincy Carter and Trent Edwards and Giovanni Carmazzi and Chad Henne and so on.
Of the five guys listed above, four of them started a playoff game, Schaub helped guide the Texans to the playoffs last year, but was hurt and did not play in the playoffs. Brees is the only one to start and win a Super Bowl. Stewart was only good for two of his 10 years as he only flourished with Chan Gailey and Mike Mularkey as offensive coordinators, who knew how to use him. Plummer led the Arizona Cardinals to the playoffs in his sophomore year, but struggled at times throwing interceptions on some bad Cardinals teams. He flourished under Mike Shanahan in Denver, leading them to the playoffs from 2003-2005, including an appearance in the 2005 AFC Championship Game before he was released and retired in 2007.
Dalton has been terrific as a rookie. He set all kinds of records at TCU and was a winner especially after going 13-0 and winning the Rose Bowl as a senior. He was drafted in the 2nd round by the Cincinnati Bengals, not because of his orange hair which fits the color of their helmets. Dalton was not cast into an ideal situation as the Bengals have been one of the league's laughing stocks and one of the most dysfunctional franchises. They finished 4-12 the year before and lost wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Carson Palmer "retired" and Dalton was left by himself to be the starter. Sure they had AJ Green, but not much was expected to do much, especially considering he was a rookie 2nd round pick, which hardly translates into success, and play in a division that sees you play the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens twice a year. Dalton shocked many in the league as he threw for 3,398 yards and 20 touchdowns and led the Bengals to a playoff birth with a 9-7 record. According to the cincinnatibengals.com website, Dalton is the first non first round quarterback to start all 16 games for his team and make the playoffs. Dalton played much like a first rounder as he not only protected the ball very well and made a lot of plays for his team and had four come-from-behind wins on the season. Dalton is one of five rookie QBs to throw for over 3,000 yards as well as 20 touchdowns. He was named Rookie of the Month for October. He made the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
In years past, first round picks were 50-50. Now it's an even higher success rate. The 2nd round is about 10% and the 3rd round is probably 5-8% success and it continues to drop all the way to round 7. So those who want a certain quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round, it's about a 90-10 failure to success rate. Even in years before Favre was drafted in 1991, 2nd and 3rd round QBs were not successful, maybe a little more than the last 20 years. Quarterback is such a premium position that teams take them high in the 1st round. Those who last into the 2nd or 3rd round or later, the success continues to go down as the talent continues to go down. They are not physically able or mentally able or both to be a franchise or serviceable QB at best. Many of these 2nd and 3rd round picks in the last 20 years aren't even good enough to be a backup in this league as they are quickly out of the league within 5 years. The worst part is, since 2004, the rules were tailored to the quarterback and even many of these guys since 2004 can even hold a clipboard in the NFL. You want an elite, franchise, and Super Bowl winning quarterback, you take him in the 1st round, preferably in the top-10. There are obviously some exceptions to the rule. Tom Brady drafted 6th round, 199th overall in 2000, Kurt Warner, undrafted out of 1-AA Northern Iowa and played in the Arena League and NFL Europe before coming into the NFL, have won Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVPs. They are the exception not the rule. Even Tony Romo is a top-10 quarterback and was undrafted and went to a Division 1-AA school.
Look at some of the names taken in the 2nd and 3rd round that were failures in this league: Billy Joe "I did not read the playbook" Hobert, Todd Collins (well if you count the fact he was a backup but in the league for about 13 seasons and even led the Redskins to the playoffs as a backup in 07, then I guess he's somewhat of a success but still not great), Tony Banks, Charlie Batch (believe it or not, still in the league and along with Peyton Manning and Matt Hasselbeck are the only quarterbacks still in the league from the 1998 NFL Draft), Brian Griese (never lived up to the hype of being Hall of Fame Bob Griese's son and winning a national championship at Michigan), Shaun King, Giovanni Carmazzi (did not play a single snap in the regular season, wouldn't the 49ers been smart to have taken Tom Brady instead),Chris Redman (backing up Matt Ryan in Atlanta), Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Josh McCown, Chris Simms (another son of a Hall of Famer who did not amount to much), Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Kevin Kolb (has not proven himself in Philadelphia or Arizona), John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White (who was the typical "Wildcat" QB who was drafted by the team that came up with that offense and cut him after only a year because he could not cut it in the NFL), Jimmy Clausen, and Colt McCoy. Not a lot of Hall of Famers there LOL.
That's what's your 2nd and 3rd round picks look like. Every squirrel finds a nut once in a while. That's why they are drafted not in the 1st round. The dropoff between the 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th best QB generally results in a pretty significant dropoff. So when you think you want someone in the 2nd or 3rd or even later rounds because you want that Brady or Brees or even Favre, remember the list of the players above plus the others you probably never heard of before. For ever Brees, there's 10 of Quincy Carter and Trent Edwards and Giovanni Carmazzi and Chad Henne and so on.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Buffalo Bills Draft Prospects: I Think This Guy is the Most Likely Pick at #10
I will breakdown some of the players that the Bills could take in the 1st round, 10th overall. The players I will profile who I've seen linked to the Bills are: wide receiver Michael Floyd, offensive tackle Riley Reiff, offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, offensive guard David DeCastro, and linebacker Luke Kuechly. I will tell you a little about each man and tell why and why not the Bills should draft him.
Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
Michael Floyd is considered to be the 2nd best wide receiver prospect in the draft behind only Justin Blackmon, but not by much. He is a top-10 pick with great size (6'2-6'3 depending on who you ask 220 lbs.) and great hands and has pretty good speed and the ability to get open. He's also made numerous highlight catches in his career. Floyd set many single season (including 100 catches last year) and career receiving records at Notre Dame. In fact, many of the receiving records he broke were that of NFL great and former Heisman Trophy winner, Tim Brown.
Why the Bills should draft him: If he is available, he will almost undoubtedly be the pick. Floyd would be a very popular selection by many of the fans I have spoken to as it would help Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills to have a big time second option next to Steve Johnson. No offense to Donald Jones, he's no number two, nor is David Nelson or Brad Smith or Naaman Roosevelt. Marcus Easily could be but he has yet to get onto the football field for two years. At times last year, Fitz did not have anyone to throw to outside of Stevie and throw to a guy who can make big plays. Could you imagine the Bills having back-to-back 1,000 receiver Johnson and a guy with big play ability like Floyd along with a healthy Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller? For those who question Floyd's ability, you should not question it. Floyd put up record numbers at Notre Dame with really no great quarterback. He has also been in a pro-style offense
Why the Bills should not draft him: There's very few things that make the Bills should stay away from him. Character could be a concern as he was arrested for drunken driving and was initially indefinitely suspended from the team for his senior year, only to be allowed back for his senior year. I guess he was also busted for underage drinking but who really hasn't drank underage? Yes the drunk driving arrest is serious but hopefully he learned his lesson. But the character issues aren't too big of a concern for me. Also, he's had a couple of injuries, but he's bounced back from them to compete at a high level. My honest and humble opinion, he is the guy at #10 unless he is off the board. This is the guy Buddy Nix would like at 10. Look at two years ago when he took CJ Spiller, a running back at 9 because he believed he was great value and had the ability to be a big time play maker even though he wasn't much of a need then. Floyd is a position of need plus he brings a lot of play making ability. This is a passing league and you need to have great weapons at wide receiver. They gave Fitz a contract extension last year and Stevie a contract earlier this year so they need more weapons to make big plays. Like I said, the only way he's not our pick is if he's taken before us and there are some teams; Jacksonville, Miami, and Carolina, ahead of us who could take him and use him.
Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
Riley Reiff comes from a long line of solid to great offensive linemen at the University of Iowa. He has been considered to be the 2nd best offensive tackle by many scouts, behind only USC's Matt Kalil, who will go top-5 in the draft. Reiff has been a three-year starter at Iowa and has missed only two games in his career. As a freshman, he played left and right tackle as well as left guard. He replaced Bryan Bulaga in his sophomore year and spent the last two years as the Hawkeyes' left tackle, never missing a start. He announced he was entering the NFL Draft after his junior year. Reiff has been projected as a top-15 pick.
Why the Bills should draft him: The Bills need a left tackle after not re-signing Demetress Bell (who spells his name differently since he signed with Philadelphia) to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side. Even though the Bills' offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, a lot of it is because Fitzpatrick was quick with the release of the ball and Chan Gailey had an offensive system was that of quick throws and slants which don't require the QB to hold onto the ball very long. I think Gailey wants to have Fitz drop back more and hold onto the ball a couple of more seconds and go down the field. Bell was decent but injured a lot so he was not worth re-signing. Chris Hairston showed a lot of promise last year as a rookie, but was hurt too and the Bills aren't ready to make him the long-term answer at left tackle just yet. So left tackle is an important position and Gailey and Nix have not been secretive about taking a tackle at 10.
Why the Bills should not draft him: Reiff has showed some athletic ability, but his measurables aren't quite to the elite left tackle standards. His arms are too short to be a left tackle, although they are longer than perennial Pro Bowlers Joe Thomas and Jake Long, but both have incredible skill and intangibles to overcome that and are both the exception not the rule. Plus both Thomas and Long were just slam dunk picks that were able to start right away at left tackle and be able to start for well over a decade and everyone knew so. Arm length is very important in pass protection, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback's blind side. There are scouts that have him rated as a right tackle or even a guard. Some believe he will need to start at right tackle for a couple of years before switching to left. If the Bills feel he can be a left tackle right away, they could take him. But I don't see Buddy Nix wasting the 10th pick of the draft on someone who can't come right in and start at left tackle.
Cordy Glenn - OT - Georgia
Cordy Glenn has lately become "the guy" the Bills might take 10th overall in the NFL Draft. I've seen WGR 550's Joe Buscaglia have the Bills taking him not once but twice in his mock drafts. Here's the latest mock draft from him (http://www.wgr550.com/pages/12796391.php?contentType=4&contentId=10371298). Glenn also was recently in town for a workout. Glenn spent his first three seasons at Georgia as an excellent guard, he was an All-American guard in his junior year. However, after a run of injuries to the Georgia offensive line, Glenn was moved over from his guard spot to the left tackle spot. Mark Richt wanted someone with experience to protect the blind side of Aaron Murray. So he plugged in Glenn and Glenn played well at left tackle, earning All-SEC 1st Team honors at tackle in his only year at tackle. He had a great game against LSU in the SEC Championship Game and was very good in the Senior Bowl as a tackle.
Why the Bills should draft him: It's as simple as the Bills need a left tackle. For those who are concerned because he was mostly a guard and is somewhat projected as a guard in some scouts' eyes, he had a really good year at left tackle his senior year. Plus he more than held his own in the SEC, which is the closest NFL competition he would face in college. Many of the top defensive players play in the SEC and Glenn more than held his own against them. He has tremendous size at 6'5 345 lbs and has great strength and arm length. His size is very prototypical for a tackle. He also has great footwork and awareness and a knowledge of the position. He gave his quarterback enough time to throw. Glenn is also a very good run blocker as both a tackle and guard. Did you know, the Bills have not drafted a tackle higher that the 4th round since 2002? It's about time they change that. Oh yea, he had a pre-draft visit with the Bills back in late March. I think he is someone Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey is eyeing up. It might be a little bit of a reach at #10, but he's a top-15 prospect and if he's in the top-15 and they like him, they'll take him at 10.
Why the Bills should not draft him: He is projected by many to be a guard and the #2 guard in the draft behind Stanford's David DeCastro. If he can't make it at tackle and is a guard at-worst, it would be a waste of the 10th overall pick. He needs to start at left tackle not right tackle or guard, look at Riley Reiff above.
David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
David DeCastro had a stellar three-year career as starting guard for Stanford, helping protect Andrew Luck and helping him have a stellar career as Stanford's quarterback and is the consensus number one pick in the draft. DeCastro is touted as the best guard prospect in the draft, going anywhere in the top-15. Now I know this seems weird for the Bills to be looking at a guard at number 10 when they need a left tackle more as well as a wide receiver. Plus the Bills have decent guards in Andy Levitre and Kraig Urbik. But follow with me as this could be a long shot but not as crazy as it appears. Just read what i have to write about him.
Why the Bills should draft him: I know, a guard at #10? who does that? We need a tackle. But follow me on this. At #10, the Bills need an impact player, who starts from day one and will start for over a decade. DeCastro is that guy. He is considered the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson in 2001. Hutchinson is a multi-time All-Pro and Pro Bowler. DeCastro has drawn comparisons to him. Now I ask you, what is better, the 2nd or 3rd best offensive tackle who either or both might not be a left tackle or an elite left tackle of the best guard in over a decade who can be an All-Pro and start for over a decade? Buddy Nix likes value over need and that's good. He wants elite players. It makes sense to get the best player available at #10. If DeCastro is, he will be the pick.
Why the Bills should not draft him: Given the examples I stated above, I really don't hate the move and actually am in favor of it. But it's crazy to take a guard that high at #10. It would be nice to see if he can play tackle, but he is considered a guard only and doesn't have the arm length to be a tackle. So tackle is out of the question. Also with him at guard, it moves Andy Levitre over to left tackle, which is something I want no part of.
Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
Luke Kuechly has climbed the charts over the last month and can be a top-10 pick. Kuechly is a tackling machine and has been in his stellar three-year career. In his three years at Boston College, Kuechly has amassed 532 tackles, 35.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 sacks and seven interceptions. Outside of maybe Michael Floyd, fans have wanted the Bills to draft Kuechly at #10.
Why the Bills should draft him: The Bills spent a ton of money on elite pass rushing defensive ends, but still have a need at cornerback. The Bills could use another linebacker. Kuechly is a tackling machine, who can make plays behind the line of scrimmage and play pass coverage well. That helps especially with the pass rush being addressed this off season. He also has incredible instincts and has a nose for the ball. If the Bills feel Kuechly is the best player available at 10, he will be the pick.
Why the Bills should not draft him: Linebackers aren't usually drafted in the top-10. In fact, only six linebackers have been drafted in the last decade. Only one of those, Jerod Mayo, had made it to the Pro Bowl and was an All-Pro. Linebackers aren't valued high anymore mainly because this is a passing league and there is an importance to getting after the quarterback and covering wide receivers. Kuechly is not a pass rusher despite playing pass coverage well. He seems like a guy who can get a lot of tackles, but he will probably make a bunch 5-10 yards down the field, which is important, but not superstar material. At #10, we need an elite play maker, not a solid player.
The pick I think right now is Michael Floyd as he looks to be the best at #10. I think Glenn is a big option over any other tackle and offensive lineman because of how Buddy Nix reportedly glows about him.
Michael Floyd - WR - Notre Dame
Michael Floyd is considered to be the 2nd best wide receiver prospect in the draft behind only Justin Blackmon, but not by much. He is a top-10 pick with great size (6'2-6'3 depending on who you ask 220 lbs.) and great hands and has pretty good speed and the ability to get open. He's also made numerous highlight catches in his career. Floyd set many single season (including 100 catches last year) and career receiving records at Notre Dame. In fact, many of the receiving records he broke were that of NFL great and former Heisman Trophy winner, Tim Brown.
Why the Bills should draft him: If he is available, he will almost undoubtedly be the pick. Floyd would be a very popular selection by many of the fans I have spoken to as it would help Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills to have a big time second option next to Steve Johnson. No offense to Donald Jones, he's no number two, nor is David Nelson or Brad Smith or Naaman Roosevelt. Marcus Easily could be but he has yet to get onto the football field for two years. At times last year, Fitz did not have anyone to throw to outside of Stevie and throw to a guy who can make big plays. Could you imagine the Bills having back-to-back 1,000 receiver Johnson and a guy with big play ability like Floyd along with a healthy Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller? For those who question Floyd's ability, you should not question it. Floyd put up record numbers at Notre Dame with really no great quarterback. He has also been in a pro-style offense
Why the Bills should not draft him: There's very few things that make the Bills should stay away from him. Character could be a concern as he was arrested for drunken driving and was initially indefinitely suspended from the team for his senior year, only to be allowed back for his senior year. I guess he was also busted for underage drinking but who really hasn't drank underage? Yes the drunk driving arrest is serious but hopefully he learned his lesson. But the character issues aren't too big of a concern for me. Also, he's had a couple of injuries, but he's bounced back from them to compete at a high level. My honest and humble opinion, he is the guy at #10 unless he is off the board. This is the guy Buddy Nix would like at 10. Look at two years ago when he took CJ Spiller, a running back at 9 because he believed he was great value and had the ability to be a big time play maker even though he wasn't much of a need then. Floyd is a position of need plus he brings a lot of play making ability. This is a passing league and you need to have great weapons at wide receiver. They gave Fitz a contract extension last year and Stevie a contract earlier this year so they need more weapons to make big plays. Like I said, the only way he's not our pick is if he's taken before us and there are some teams; Jacksonville, Miami, and Carolina, ahead of us who could take him and use him.
Riley Reiff - OT - Iowa
Riley Reiff comes from a long line of solid to great offensive linemen at the University of Iowa. He has been considered to be the 2nd best offensive tackle by many scouts, behind only USC's Matt Kalil, who will go top-5 in the draft. Reiff has been a three-year starter at Iowa and has missed only two games in his career. As a freshman, he played left and right tackle as well as left guard. He replaced Bryan Bulaga in his sophomore year and spent the last two years as the Hawkeyes' left tackle, never missing a start. He announced he was entering the NFL Draft after his junior year. Reiff has been projected as a top-15 pick.
Why the Bills should draft him: The Bills need a left tackle after not re-signing Demetress Bell (who spells his name differently since he signed with Philadelphia) to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side. Even though the Bills' offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, a lot of it is because Fitzpatrick was quick with the release of the ball and Chan Gailey had an offensive system was that of quick throws and slants which don't require the QB to hold onto the ball very long. I think Gailey wants to have Fitz drop back more and hold onto the ball a couple of more seconds and go down the field. Bell was decent but injured a lot so he was not worth re-signing. Chris Hairston showed a lot of promise last year as a rookie, but was hurt too and the Bills aren't ready to make him the long-term answer at left tackle just yet. So left tackle is an important position and Gailey and Nix have not been secretive about taking a tackle at 10.
Why the Bills should not draft him: Reiff has showed some athletic ability, but his measurables aren't quite to the elite left tackle standards. His arms are too short to be a left tackle, although they are longer than perennial Pro Bowlers Joe Thomas and Jake Long, but both have incredible skill and intangibles to overcome that and are both the exception not the rule. Plus both Thomas and Long were just slam dunk picks that were able to start right away at left tackle and be able to start for well over a decade and everyone knew so. Arm length is very important in pass protection, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback's blind side. There are scouts that have him rated as a right tackle or even a guard. Some believe he will need to start at right tackle for a couple of years before switching to left. If the Bills feel he can be a left tackle right away, they could take him. But I don't see Buddy Nix wasting the 10th pick of the draft on someone who can't come right in and start at left tackle.
Cordy Glenn - OT - Georgia
Cordy Glenn has lately become "the guy" the Bills might take 10th overall in the NFL Draft. I've seen WGR 550's Joe Buscaglia have the Bills taking him not once but twice in his mock drafts. Here's the latest mock draft from him (http://www.wgr550.com/pages/12796391.php?contentType=4&contentId=10371298). Glenn also was recently in town for a workout. Glenn spent his first three seasons at Georgia as an excellent guard, he was an All-American guard in his junior year. However, after a run of injuries to the Georgia offensive line, Glenn was moved over from his guard spot to the left tackle spot. Mark Richt wanted someone with experience to protect the blind side of Aaron Murray. So he plugged in Glenn and Glenn played well at left tackle, earning All-SEC 1st Team honors at tackle in his only year at tackle. He had a great game against LSU in the SEC Championship Game and was very good in the Senior Bowl as a tackle.
Why the Bills should draft him: It's as simple as the Bills need a left tackle. For those who are concerned because he was mostly a guard and is somewhat projected as a guard in some scouts' eyes, he had a really good year at left tackle his senior year. Plus he more than held his own in the SEC, which is the closest NFL competition he would face in college. Many of the top defensive players play in the SEC and Glenn more than held his own against them. He has tremendous size at 6'5 345 lbs and has great strength and arm length. His size is very prototypical for a tackle. He also has great footwork and awareness and a knowledge of the position. He gave his quarterback enough time to throw. Glenn is also a very good run blocker as both a tackle and guard. Did you know, the Bills have not drafted a tackle higher that the 4th round since 2002? It's about time they change that. Oh yea, he had a pre-draft visit with the Bills back in late March. I think he is someone Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey is eyeing up. It might be a little bit of a reach at #10, but he's a top-15 prospect and if he's in the top-15 and they like him, they'll take him at 10.
Why the Bills should not draft him: He is projected by many to be a guard and the #2 guard in the draft behind Stanford's David DeCastro. If he can't make it at tackle and is a guard at-worst, it would be a waste of the 10th overall pick. He needs to start at left tackle not right tackle or guard, look at Riley Reiff above.
David DeCastro - OG - Stanford
David DeCastro had a stellar three-year career as starting guard for Stanford, helping protect Andrew Luck and helping him have a stellar career as Stanford's quarterback and is the consensus number one pick in the draft. DeCastro is touted as the best guard prospect in the draft, going anywhere in the top-15. Now I know this seems weird for the Bills to be looking at a guard at number 10 when they need a left tackle more as well as a wide receiver. Plus the Bills have decent guards in Andy Levitre and Kraig Urbik. But follow with me as this could be a long shot but not as crazy as it appears. Just read what i have to write about him.
Why the Bills should draft him: I know, a guard at #10? who does that? We need a tackle. But follow me on this. At #10, the Bills need an impact player, who starts from day one and will start for over a decade. DeCastro is that guy. He is considered the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson in 2001. Hutchinson is a multi-time All-Pro and Pro Bowler. DeCastro has drawn comparisons to him. Now I ask you, what is better, the 2nd or 3rd best offensive tackle who either or both might not be a left tackle or an elite left tackle of the best guard in over a decade who can be an All-Pro and start for over a decade? Buddy Nix likes value over need and that's good. He wants elite players. It makes sense to get the best player available at #10. If DeCastro is, he will be the pick.
Why the Bills should not draft him: Given the examples I stated above, I really don't hate the move and actually am in favor of it. But it's crazy to take a guard that high at #10. It would be nice to see if he can play tackle, but he is considered a guard only and doesn't have the arm length to be a tackle. So tackle is out of the question. Also with him at guard, it moves Andy Levitre over to left tackle, which is something I want no part of.
Luke Kuechly - LB - Boston College
Luke Kuechly has climbed the charts over the last month and can be a top-10 pick. Kuechly is a tackling machine and has been in his stellar three-year career. In his three years at Boston College, Kuechly has amassed 532 tackles, 35.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 sacks and seven interceptions. Outside of maybe Michael Floyd, fans have wanted the Bills to draft Kuechly at #10.
Why the Bills should draft him: The Bills spent a ton of money on elite pass rushing defensive ends, but still have a need at cornerback. The Bills could use another linebacker. Kuechly is a tackling machine, who can make plays behind the line of scrimmage and play pass coverage well. That helps especially with the pass rush being addressed this off season. He also has incredible instincts and has a nose for the ball. If the Bills feel Kuechly is the best player available at 10, he will be the pick.
Why the Bills should not draft him: Linebackers aren't usually drafted in the top-10. In fact, only six linebackers have been drafted in the last decade. Only one of those, Jerod Mayo, had made it to the Pro Bowl and was an All-Pro. Linebackers aren't valued high anymore mainly because this is a passing league and there is an importance to getting after the quarterback and covering wide receivers. Kuechly is not a pass rusher despite playing pass coverage well. He seems like a guy who can get a lot of tackles, but he will probably make a bunch 5-10 yards down the field, which is important, but not superstar material. At #10, we need an elite play maker, not a solid player.
The pick I think right now is Michael Floyd as he looks to be the best at #10. I think Glenn is a big option over any other tackle and offensive lineman because of how Buddy Nix reportedly glows about him.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Sabres-Leafs Post Game Reactions
What a game last night as the Sabres overcame a 3-0 1st period deficit to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5 in overtime to keep their playoff hopes alive. There were so many emotions running through my head like "these guys are bums," "they are ready to go golfing," "way to not show up," to "holy cow they are going to win" and "they are going to make the playoffs." Yea it was a very bi-polar game, but those are the most exciting games when you are disappointed and then you are super excited because you won. It's only good when you pull out a win. I was thinking "I did not want to be eliminated from the playoffs by the Maple Leafs and Ben Scrivens because they are terrible." I figured once the Sabres tied it up, they were going to win and I think they will make the playoffs.
The star of the game was without a doubt Marcus Foligno. He was all over the ice hitting players, finishing his checks, and even getting into a fight. He and fellow rookie Brayden McNabb were the only Sabres doing anything in the 1st period of a must-win game. The veterans were doing nothing while these two youngsters were setting the tone. Foligno's play of the game, which was the play of the game, came when they were trailing 5-4 with less than two minutes to go. He and Mike Komisarek were jawing at each other on the faceoff which led to Komisarek taking him down and punching him while Foligno was done and Foligno just took the punishment while there was a gigantic scrum in front of the net for the loose puck. Every Sabres on the ice minus Foligno and Miller were in front of the net poking and prodding until Jordan Leopold banged it home to tie the game up. Credit to the officials who were able to see the puck still in play. Generally those plays are blown dead once they lose control of where the puck is. Leaf fans were probably pissed and so would we if it happened to us, but it was the right call. Foligno created that goal by getting in Komisarek's head with the jawing and the play behind the net which led to Komisarek losing his control and focus and eventually the game. There's never been a time I can remember when someone who didn't score a goal, had more to do with it than the person who scored like what happened last night.
Foligno's hitting and physical play has been awesome, but his physical play creates chances and goals and he scores goals. Hopefully he can our Milan Lucic or even his father Mike, who was one of the most popular Sabres ever with his scoring and physical play. If Marcus keeps this up, he will join the ranks of his father in terms of popularity in Sabres history. The not being physical or tough enough point is a bit overrated because when the Sabres win because of their offense, no body mentions physical play. When they lose, it's easy to say "they're not physical or tough enough and they lack effort." I know, I'm guilty of that to at times, I'm calling myself out here. But reality sets in and I know the truth, they are a scoring team that can be physical, but they are trying to score first and foremost. Their record this season when they score 3 or more goals is 31-6-4. Of course last night, the more they scored, the more physical it seemed they were. When our team is scoring and winning, it makes everything look better. They look like they are trying harder and are more physical. They are more fun to watch when they are winning and scoring. Conversely, when they lose and not scoring, it makes them look like they are not physical and not trying. They also look dull and boring. Since being called up no March 10, the Sabres have been 8-2-2 in 12 games with Foligno in the lineup. He's scored 6 goals and 13 points and is a +9 with a shooting percentage of a whopping 30.0. Foligno is also averaging over 15 1/2 minutes of ice time a game. There's no doubt his physical play and scoring have brought such a needed spark to this team. He is what we wanted Zack Kassian to be, a big physical forward who hits, finishes off his checks, fights, and most importantly scores.
Ryan Miller continues to struggle without Tyler Myers or Christian Ehrhoff in the lineup in front of him. He obviously trusts them because they don't get out of position much and have the talent to break up plays before they even start. Most of the other defensemen on this team like Weber and Sekera can't do the things like Myers or Ehrhoff and have to sit back. Miller has to gamble more and overcompensate without them in the lineup and it leads to many more opportunities for the other team to score. Miller is really cool, calm, and collective with Myers and Ehrhoff in the lineup. Myers and Ehrhoff bring the goals allowed by over one full goal per game when they are in the lineup. Miller struggles too, but the other defense, although Regehr and Jordan Leopold do a pretty good job most of the time, is not as good without those two in the lineup. I need Miller to be better without them in the lineup as Ehrhoff will be out for the rest of the regular season and Myers may or may not be back this week. This is the 3rd straight game Miller and the Sabres allowed 4 or more goals a game. I need Miller to be better, but I also need Myers and Ehrhoff to be healthy and hope they can be healthy next year and beyond. One of the many reasons the Sabres as well as Miller turned their season around in the middle of the season was because Myers and Ehrhoff and Myers were back and healthy and playing well. They really control the game on both sides of the ice. We really need one or two more of those guys on this team.
Alex Sulzer had a great game as well as a big mistake that nearly cost them the game. He was beat by former Sabre Clarke MacArthur in the front of the net to make the score 4-2 as he was on the ice for three of the Leafs' 5 goals. But Sulzer more than made up for it by scoring a beautiful goal thru both former Sabre Tim Connolly and Ben Scrivens to make it 3-2. He also set up Tyler Ennis for the Sabres' first goal after being down 3-0. Sulzer did not stop there as he once again picked up a loose puck in front of the net to score his 2nd of the game to make it 5-4. Sulzer came over from Vancouver in the Cody Hodgson deal and it figured he'd be just another body. But he has played much better than expected. He's scored 3 goals and 8 points as well as averaging nearly 20 minutes in ice time and has played better than expected defense.
Now how about the man who scored the game-winner? The unlikely hero of the game: Derek Roy. Roy scored a power play goal to cut the lead to 4-3 in the 3rd. Then after the Sabres tied it and sent it to overtime, Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf was called for a delay of game penalty for clearing the puck over the glass. Roy slipped a loose puck past Scrivens for an improbably 6-5 overtime win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Roy became the unsung hero as many, including myself, dogged him throughout the game especially in the 1st period. Roy has been having his worst season since he was a rookie. His 43 points and 0.55 points per game is his lowest in a full season. He had 35 points last season in 43 fewer games. His -9 and 9.8 shooting % are the worst of his career. Many fans, even myself, wanted him traded at the trade deadline and even this off season. Roy was apparently on the trading block last off season, but either no one wanted him or the deal was not good enough. Roy has definitely been the poster child for the team's lack of success by many of the fans, especially since Connolly left. Last season, the Sabres were 10 points out of a playoff spot going into the 1st of the year and had one of the best records in the league after he was done for the year with a hip injury. Before last night's game, Roy had been pointless in five consecutive games and seven of the previous games. It's been truly a disappointing year but he made up some of it with his performance last night and if they get in, then we can thank Roy. And then trade him LOL.
Last night's game was a microcosm of the season so far. There was great expectations going into the game just like going into the season. Then they go down 3-0, which resembles the way they played from mid-November when Miller was hit by Lucic to late-January when they were in last place in the Eastern Conference. We mostly gave up on them, I know I did. Last night I thought it was over. Then they come back to make it 4-3 and make a run like they did from Jan. 24 to last weekend as they played so much better. Then Toronto scored a goal in which the skater went right through the defense to make it 5-3. That was symbolic of how the Sabres were this past weekend against Pittsburgh and Toronto. Then the Sabres rally to tie it to keep their hopes alive in both the game and playoffs. Sabres win it in overtime to overcome a 3-0 and 5-3 deficit. If this trend continues, then the overtime goal symbolizes the Sabres in the playoffs.
Sabres need to win their last two games against Philadelphia and Boston. They also need either Florida to win tomorrow night against Washington in either regulation or even overtime or shootout, this allows the Sabres to control their own destiny by winning out. The Caps cannot gain more than 3 points or else they're in. Or the Sabres need Florida to not get a single point over the final two games. Of course the Sabres need to win out for this to be a reality. If either one of those scenarios happen, the Sabres are in the playoffs. I will be glued to my TV tomorrow watching the Sabres and keep a close eye on the Washington-Florida game. Here we go again!! Go Sabres!!
The star of the game was without a doubt Marcus Foligno. He was all over the ice hitting players, finishing his checks, and even getting into a fight. He and fellow rookie Brayden McNabb were the only Sabres doing anything in the 1st period of a must-win game. The veterans were doing nothing while these two youngsters were setting the tone. Foligno's play of the game, which was the play of the game, came when they were trailing 5-4 with less than two minutes to go. He and Mike Komisarek were jawing at each other on the faceoff which led to Komisarek taking him down and punching him while Foligno was done and Foligno just took the punishment while there was a gigantic scrum in front of the net for the loose puck. Every Sabres on the ice minus Foligno and Miller were in front of the net poking and prodding until Jordan Leopold banged it home to tie the game up. Credit to the officials who were able to see the puck still in play. Generally those plays are blown dead once they lose control of where the puck is. Leaf fans were probably pissed and so would we if it happened to us, but it was the right call. Foligno created that goal by getting in Komisarek's head with the jawing and the play behind the net which led to Komisarek losing his control and focus and eventually the game. There's never been a time I can remember when someone who didn't score a goal, had more to do with it than the person who scored like what happened last night.
Foligno's hitting and physical play has been awesome, but his physical play creates chances and goals and he scores goals. Hopefully he can our Milan Lucic or even his father Mike, who was one of the most popular Sabres ever with his scoring and physical play. If Marcus keeps this up, he will join the ranks of his father in terms of popularity in Sabres history. The not being physical or tough enough point is a bit overrated because when the Sabres win because of their offense, no body mentions physical play. When they lose, it's easy to say "they're not physical or tough enough and they lack effort." I know, I'm guilty of that to at times, I'm calling myself out here. But reality sets in and I know the truth, they are a scoring team that can be physical, but they are trying to score first and foremost. Their record this season when they score 3 or more goals is 31-6-4. Of course last night, the more they scored, the more physical it seemed they were. When our team is scoring and winning, it makes everything look better. They look like they are trying harder and are more physical. They are more fun to watch when they are winning and scoring. Conversely, when they lose and not scoring, it makes them look like they are not physical and not trying. They also look dull and boring. Since being called up no March 10, the Sabres have been 8-2-2 in 12 games with Foligno in the lineup. He's scored 6 goals and 13 points and is a +9 with a shooting percentage of a whopping 30.0. Foligno is also averaging over 15 1/2 minutes of ice time a game. There's no doubt his physical play and scoring have brought such a needed spark to this team. He is what we wanted Zack Kassian to be, a big physical forward who hits, finishes off his checks, fights, and most importantly scores.
Ryan Miller continues to struggle without Tyler Myers or Christian Ehrhoff in the lineup in front of him. He obviously trusts them because they don't get out of position much and have the talent to break up plays before they even start. Most of the other defensemen on this team like Weber and Sekera can't do the things like Myers or Ehrhoff and have to sit back. Miller has to gamble more and overcompensate without them in the lineup and it leads to many more opportunities for the other team to score. Miller is really cool, calm, and collective with Myers and Ehrhoff in the lineup. Myers and Ehrhoff bring the goals allowed by over one full goal per game when they are in the lineup. Miller struggles too, but the other defense, although Regehr and Jordan Leopold do a pretty good job most of the time, is not as good without those two in the lineup. I need Miller to be better without them in the lineup as Ehrhoff will be out for the rest of the regular season and Myers may or may not be back this week. This is the 3rd straight game Miller and the Sabres allowed 4 or more goals a game. I need Miller to be better, but I also need Myers and Ehrhoff to be healthy and hope they can be healthy next year and beyond. One of the many reasons the Sabres as well as Miller turned their season around in the middle of the season was because Myers and Ehrhoff and Myers were back and healthy and playing well. They really control the game on both sides of the ice. We really need one or two more of those guys on this team.
Alex Sulzer had a great game as well as a big mistake that nearly cost them the game. He was beat by former Sabre Clarke MacArthur in the front of the net to make the score 4-2 as he was on the ice for three of the Leafs' 5 goals. But Sulzer more than made up for it by scoring a beautiful goal thru both former Sabre Tim Connolly and Ben Scrivens to make it 3-2. He also set up Tyler Ennis for the Sabres' first goal after being down 3-0. Sulzer did not stop there as he once again picked up a loose puck in front of the net to score his 2nd of the game to make it 5-4. Sulzer came over from Vancouver in the Cody Hodgson deal and it figured he'd be just another body. But he has played much better than expected. He's scored 3 goals and 8 points as well as averaging nearly 20 minutes in ice time and has played better than expected defense.
Now how about the man who scored the game-winner? The unlikely hero of the game: Derek Roy. Roy scored a power play goal to cut the lead to 4-3 in the 3rd. Then after the Sabres tied it and sent it to overtime, Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf was called for a delay of game penalty for clearing the puck over the glass. Roy slipped a loose puck past Scrivens for an improbably 6-5 overtime win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Roy became the unsung hero as many, including myself, dogged him throughout the game especially in the 1st period. Roy has been having his worst season since he was a rookie. His 43 points and 0.55 points per game is his lowest in a full season. He had 35 points last season in 43 fewer games. His -9 and 9.8 shooting % are the worst of his career. Many fans, even myself, wanted him traded at the trade deadline and even this off season. Roy was apparently on the trading block last off season, but either no one wanted him or the deal was not good enough. Roy has definitely been the poster child for the team's lack of success by many of the fans, especially since Connolly left. Last season, the Sabres were 10 points out of a playoff spot going into the 1st of the year and had one of the best records in the league after he was done for the year with a hip injury. Before last night's game, Roy had been pointless in five consecutive games and seven of the previous games. It's been truly a disappointing year but he made up some of it with his performance last night and if they get in, then we can thank Roy. And then trade him LOL.
Last night's game was a microcosm of the season so far. There was great expectations going into the game just like going into the season. Then they go down 3-0, which resembles the way they played from mid-November when Miller was hit by Lucic to late-January when they were in last place in the Eastern Conference. We mostly gave up on them, I know I did. Last night I thought it was over. Then they come back to make it 4-3 and make a run like they did from Jan. 24 to last weekend as they played so much better. Then Toronto scored a goal in which the skater went right through the defense to make it 5-3. That was symbolic of how the Sabres were this past weekend against Pittsburgh and Toronto. Then the Sabres rally to tie it to keep their hopes alive in both the game and playoffs. Sabres win it in overtime to overcome a 3-0 and 5-3 deficit. If this trend continues, then the overtime goal symbolizes the Sabres in the playoffs.
Sabres need to win their last two games against Philadelphia and Boston. They also need either Florida to win tomorrow night against Washington in either regulation or even overtime or shootout, this allows the Sabres to control their own destiny by winning out. The Caps cannot gain more than 3 points or else they're in. Or the Sabres need Florida to not get a single point over the final two games. Of course the Sabres need to win out for this to be a reality. If either one of those scenarios happen, the Sabres are in the playoffs. I will be glued to my TV tomorrow watching the Sabres and keep a close eye on the Washington-Florida game. Here we go again!! Go Sabres!!
Monday, April 2, 2012
Stick A Fork In Them, They Are Done?
The Buffalo Sabres were on such a high going into Friday night's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins especially after trashing the Washington Capitals, the team they are chasing, on the road 5-1 to pull ahead of the Caps by two points with five games. I thought they were in good shape and looked like they would make the playoffs. I also thought the Caps were going to crash because it looked like they quit in that game. Of course the one downfall from that game was the injury to Christian Ehrhoff. But the high of winning that game was greater than Ehrhoff's injury. Of course I was concerned because Ehrhoff was injured during the season and along with Tyler Myers' injury, Ryan Miller struggled in goal and the Sabres struggled overall. Then coincidentally, both Myers and Ehrhoff were healthy and Miller has been on a tear since January 24, going 19-3-5 heading into Friday night's game. As a result, the Sabres have gone from the bottom of the Eastern Conference to in a playoff spot going into Friday night's game against the Penguins.
I must admit, I felt good Friday even though they had Crosby, Malkin, and Staal but the Penguins lost three of four games going into that game and the Sabres also beat the Penguins two out of three games during the season. Plus it was home for Fan Appreciation Night, plus Fleury was not in goal and Brent Johnson was, whom the Sabres have ripped apart throughout his career including 3 goals in a 6-2 win over the Pens earlier this year. But there was a little concern just because of Malkin and Crosby but again, the Sabres shut out Ovechkin last Tuesday. Malkin and Crosby don't quit like Ovechkin either. So we had our work cut out for us. Malkin got a goal and so did Crosby in the 1st. Malkin's was a good goal and Miller should have made the save, but obviously Crosby should not been left alone. Crosby had a goal and three assists and Malkin got his 48th goal of the season and an assist, further adding to his league-leading point total. James Neal, who's having a fantastic year, netted his 38th goal of the season. Miller was not great allowing 4 goals but was not awful and the blame should not be on him. Not having Ehrhoff and later losing Myers did not help. But the Sabres lost 5-3 in regulation and earning no points. 3 goals scored was not enough. I felt they had plenty of chances on Brent Johnson and should have cashed in on it. They were tied for 8th after Friday night with the Caps after they beat Boston in a shootout Thursday night and were technically out of the playoffs because the Caps own the tie-breaker because of more regulation and overtime wins. I was not too mad about that loss because they were outplayed by Crosby and Malkin and that's what great players tend to do.
Then came Saturday night when the Sabres traveled to the Air Canada Centre in Toronto to take on the struggling Leafs. The loss to Pittsburgh hurt but it's understandable. A loss to Toronto is just unacceptable. The Leafs have completely fallen apart after their good start as they won just five games since February 6th, got their coach fired, and were on an 11-game losing streak at home going into Sat. night's contest, which included a 7-1 beat down courtesy of the Philadelphia Flyers. In that game, Leafs fans were chanting for the Toronto Blue Jays, the same Blue Jays team that hasn't made the playoffs since 1993 and are probably going to finish in 4th place out of 5 teams in the AL East. There was no way the Sabres could lose to the Leafs, was there? The tone was set early in the game when Joey Crabb (I know, who?) got a breakaway after a horrible turnover by Andrej Sekera and beat Miller on a shorthanded goal for a 1-0 lead. It was a tough save to make, but Miller needed to make it especially when the playoffs are on the line. Then down 2-1, John-Michael Liles scored a goal with a second left in the 2nd period to make it 3-1 when everyone crashed the net. The back breaker was when Matt Frattin scored on a 3-on-2 to make it 4-2 as the Leafs held on to beat the Sabres 4-3. It was such a horrible game. The Sabres were never ahead and scored 3 goals on rookie goalie Ben Scrivens (again, who?). To make matters worse, the Caps won Saturday night to take a two-point lead over the Sabres in the playoffs. Offense wasn't the problem for the Sabres as they scored 3 goals in each of the two games. Before this weekend, the Sabres were 30-4-4 when they scored 3 or more goals in a game. But the Sabres couldn't put their chances in the net enough against Toronto and their rookie no-name goalie. Unfortunately, Miller wasn't outplayed but obviously did not steal a game they needed him to. Scoring three or more goals for Miller is usually enough as he will put the game away.
Not this weekend though as he gave up 4 in each game. During his 19-3-5 run, he gave up 4 goals twice. Miller had no help as bad turnovers and poor play in front of him led to chances and goals. Miller obviously missed Ehrhoff and Myers and when both men had been out of the lineup this year, the Sabres struggled as did Miller. With them in the lineup, Miller and the team are worlds better. The Sabres are 30-21-4 with Myers in the lineup and 8-10-6 without him. They are 36-22-8 with Ehrhoff and 2-9-2 without him. So they make a huge impact. Miller had a GAA over 3.00 without them and its under 2.00 with them. So no big surprise there. Injuries matter. But I thought they could still beat a reeling Leafs team without those guys. This was a Leafs team that couldn't win at home and had their fans turn on them. So Myers and Ehrhoff are very valuable no shock there. They are more valuable to Miller. But why can't Miller win or steal a game without one or the other or both? Pittsburgh was a lot to ask for but not against Toronto. I like Miller and I think he's great. But I question his overall value as it appears he doesn't do well without his top-two defensmen in front of him. I don't want him to be traded, all I know is that with great talent in front, he or Enroth or whoever can be great. If not, then they struggle. I question the overall importance of goal tending or giving a guy $6-7 million if he can't win without everyone who matters in the lineup. Obviously I understand you cannot win without your best players in the lineup on a consistent basis. If you put Enroth or whoever in net with Myers and Ehrhoff in front of him, then he could be about as successful as Miller for a fraction of the price. That's for another discussion another day. Of course all I really want is for Myers and Ehrhoff to stay healthy.
Bottom line: the Sabres are two points behind the Caps with three games left and have to finish ahead of the Caps and cannot tie because the Caps own the tie-breaker. If the Caps collect four points in the final three games, the Sabres will be eliminated even if they win their final three games.I guess if Florida loses out they can get knocked out of the playoffs. It can be done, but it doesn't look good at this point. The Caps play the Lightning tonight so go Lightning (I'll be wearing my Steve Stamkos "shir-sey"). If the Caps win tonight and the Sabres lose in regulation tomorrow against the Leafs at home, then the Sabres will be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
I must admit, I felt good Friday even though they had Crosby, Malkin, and Staal but the Penguins lost three of four games going into that game and the Sabres also beat the Penguins two out of three games during the season. Plus it was home for Fan Appreciation Night, plus Fleury was not in goal and Brent Johnson was, whom the Sabres have ripped apart throughout his career including 3 goals in a 6-2 win over the Pens earlier this year. But there was a little concern just because of Malkin and Crosby but again, the Sabres shut out Ovechkin last Tuesday. Malkin and Crosby don't quit like Ovechkin either. So we had our work cut out for us. Malkin got a goal and so did Crosby in the 1st. Malkin's was a good goal and Miller should have made the save, but obviously Crosby should not been left alone. Crosby had a goal and three assists and Malkin got his 48th goal of the season and an assist, further adding to his league-leading point total. James Neal, who's having a fantastic year, netted his 38th goal of the season. Miller was not great allowing 4 goals but was not awful and the blame should not be on him. Not having Ehrhoff and later losing Myers did not help. But the Sabres lost 5-3 in regulation and earning no points. 3 goals scored was not enough. I felt they had plenty of chances on Brent Johnson and should have cashed in on it. They were tied for 8th after Friday night with the Caps after they beat Boston in a shootout Thursday night and were technically out of the playoffs because the Caps own the tie-breaker because of more regulation and overtime wins. I was not too mad about that loss because they were outplayed by Crosby and Malkin and that's what great players tend to do.
Then came Saturday night when the Sabres traveled to the Air Canada Centre in Toronto to take on the struggling Leafs. The loss to Pittsburgh hurt but it's understandable. A loss to Toronto is just unacceptable. The Leafs have completely fallen apart after their good start as they won just five games since February 6th, got their coach fired, and were on an 11-game losing streak at home going into Sat. night's contest, which included a 7-1 beat down courtesy of the Philadelphia Flyers. In that game, Leafs fans were chanting for the Toronto Blue Jays, the same Blue Jays team that hasn't made the playoffs since 1993 and are probably going to finish in 4th place out of 5 teams in the AL East. There was no way the Sabres could lose to the Leafs, was there? The tone was set early in the game when Joey Crabb (I know, who?) got a breakaway after a horrible turnover by Andrej Sekera and beat Miller on a shorthanded goal for a 1-0 lead. It was a tough save to make, but Miller needed to make it especially when the playoffs are on the line. Then down 2-1, John-Michael Liles scored a goal with a second left in the 2nd period to make it 3-1 when everyone crashed the net. The back breaker was when Matt Frattin scored on a 3-on-2 to make it 4-2 as the Leafs held on to beat the Sabres 4-3. It was such a horrible game. The Sabres were never ahead and scored 3 goals on rookie goalie Ben Scrivens (again, who?). To make matters worse, the Caps won Saturday night to take a two-point lead over the Sabres in the playoffs. Offense wasn't the problem for the Sabres as they scored 3 goals in each of the two games. Before this weekend, the Sabres were 30-4-4 when they scored 3 or more goals in a game. But the Sabres couldn't put their chances in the net enough against Toronto and their rookie no-name goalie. Unfortunately, Miller wasn't outplayed but obviously did not steal a game they needed him to. Scoring three or more goals for Miller is usually enough as he will put the game away.
Not this weekend though as he gave up 4 in each game. During his 19-3-5 run, he gave up 4 goals twice. Miller had no help as bad turnovers and poor play in front of him led to chances and goals. Miller obviously missed Ehrhoff and Myers and when both men had been out of the lineup this year, the Sabres struggled as did Miller. With them in the lineup, Miller and the team are worlds better. The Sabres are 30-21-4 with Myers in the lineup and 8-10-6 without him. They are 36-22-8 with Ehrhoff and 2-9-2 without him. So they make a huge impact. Miller had a GAA over 3.00 without them and its under 2.00 with them. So no big surprise there. Injuries matter. But I thought they could still beat a reeling Leafs team without those guys. This was a Leafs team that couldn't win at home and had their fans turn on them. So Myers and Ehrhoff are very valuable no shock there. They are more valuable to Miller. But why can't Miller win or steal a game without one or the other or both? Pittsburgh was a lot to ask for but not against Toronto. I like Miller and I think he's great. But I question his overall value as it appears he doesn't do well without his top-two defensmen in front of him. I don't want him to be traded, all I know is that with great talent in front, he or Enroth or whoever can be great. If not, then they struggle. I question the overall importance of goal tending or giving a guy $6-7 million if he can't win without everyone who matters in the lineup. Obviously I understand you cannot win without your best players in the lineup on a consistent basis. If you put Enroth or whoever in net with Myers and Ehrhoff in front of him, then he could be about as successful as Miller for a fraction of the price. That's for another discussion another day. Of course all I really want is for Myers and Ehrhoff to stay healthy.
Bottom line: the Sabres are two points behind the Caps with three games left and have to finish ahead of the Caps and cannot tie because the Caps own the tie-breaker. If the Caps collect four points in the final three games, the Sabres will be eliminated even if they win their final three games.I guess if Florida loses out they can get knocked out of the playoffs. It can be done, but it doesn't look good at this point. The Caps play the Lightning tonight so go Lightning (I'll be wearing my Steve Stamkos "shir-sey"). If the Caps win tonight and the Sabres lose in regulation tomorrow against the Leafs at home, then the Sabres will be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
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